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Messages - Potvin29

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2
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays add Mark Lowe
« on: July 31, 2015, 01:35:28 PM »
34 games
36 IP
1.00 ERA
47 K
11 BB
1.167 WHIP
0.3 HR/9
1.5 WAR

Or read it all and more here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowema01.shtml

3
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 31, 2015, 11:23:01 AM »
One guy to look out for later in August/September might be the return of Dalton Pompey to save us from Colabello's defense and Ezequiel Carerra's everything.  He was rushed to the majors and wasn't ready to start the year.  He went to AAA and struggled.  Since his demotion to AA his stat line has been:

AA - 31 GP 311 AB .351/.405/.545/.950

He has since been recalled to AAA with a line of: 14 GP 58 AB .379/.471/.534/1.006

I don't think the Jays should rush to get him back on the roster but they might have an internal upgrade in the outfield (certainly defensively at least).

There's been some comments by fans that have seen Pompey in Buffalo that he doesn't look comfortable defensively, for whatever reason.

4
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 31, 2015, 11:14:51 AM »
One guy to look out for later in August/September might be the return of Dalton Pompey to save us from Colabello's defense and Ezequiel Carerra's everything.  He was rushed to the majors and wasn't ready to start the year.  He went to AAA and struggled.  Since his demotion to AA his stat line has been:

AA - 31 GP 311 AB .351/.405/.545/.950

He has since been recalled to AAA with a line of: 14 GP 58 AB .379/.471/.534/1.006

I don't think the Jays should rush to get him back on the roster but they might have an internal upgrade in the outfield (certainly defensively at least).

What's going on with Saunders? Is he done for the season?

Here's what he said recently:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-saunders-my-seasons-not-over-yet/

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs sign Mitch Marner to 3-year ELC
« on: July 30, 2015, 02:12:02 PM »
Here's what I don't get - if the contract "slides" then it doesn't start correct?  So if someone like Nylander's in the AHL, he wouldn't be paid a portion of his deal like above right?  If the contract doesn't start because of under-10 games in the NHL, they wouldn't be paying a portion of it would they?  So wouldn't it be a separate AHL deal?

I'm confused by this how it relates to situations like Nylander/Kapanen.

6
Ken Daneyko did an article for The Players' Tribune on Lamoriello:

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/ken-daneyko-lou-lamoriello-leafs-devils/

7
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 01:29:53 PM »
Completely forgot they didn't have to give up Pompey either.

8
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 01:15:58 PM »
According to Shi Davidi, it's a 3 for 1 deal. Norris is going to Detroit, but Alford is not.

EDIT: Jairo Labourt and Matt Boyd are the other 2 prospects heading to the Tigers.

I don't even think that's too bad really.

Apparently Detroit was offering 48-hour windows to negotiate with Price or something?  With AA stating he's not interested in rentals, I wonder if there is some sort of green light for him to throw the cheque book at Price and some degree of confidence that he could re-sign.

Stroman's already lobbying Price on Twitter for it at least!

9
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 01:13:20 PM »

Man, I know nothing about him but Matt Boyd was having a monster year.

Made a couple starts for the Jays earlier in the season - really good first start, horrendous second start.  IIRC, he's a lefty with good but not great stuff. 

10
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 12:36:10 PM »
Jon Heyman tweets that it's done. Norris part of it.

11
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 12:34:45 PM »

Closing in on deal according to Morosi.

Dan Norris and Anthony Alford are rumoured to be part of the package heading to Detroit.

At this point I don't care. After this long...some segment will complain if they go for it or if they don't. Flags fly forever etc.

12
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays closing in deal for David Price?
« on: July 30, 2015, 12:31:05 PM »
Closing in on deal according to Morosi.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Bernier's Arbitration Case
« on: July 29, 2015, 12:25:25 PM »
One thing to keep in mind: assuming that he gets a 1-year deal now, either through arbitration or the two sides working it out on their own, Bernier will be a UFA next summer.

I thought I read that arbitration can only result in a 1-year deal for him.

EDIT: Here


Quote
@jonasTSN1050

According to the CBA, Bernier is only able to elect for 1-year award because he's within one year of being eligible for Group-3 free agency.

14
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays acquire Troy Tulowitzki
« on: July 29, 2015, 10:47:56 AM »
Bautista chimes in about the trade:

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/bautista-questions-tulowitzki-trade~667112

Pretty much what everyone has said.  We need pitching.  AA said we needed pitching at the end of the season last year.  He still hasn't added that pitching.

I think that the Jays need pitching is the consensus, but I'm not sure Bautista needs to be saying that kind of thing.  It's just not a good thing for the clubhouse.

Didn't he say something similar last year?

And while I don't think the pitching is very good, I think it's also been blown a little out of proportion and they've also got unlucky to some degree.

I mean, look at this:

Quote
@james_in_to

Jays now 14-33 in games decided by two or fewer, a .298 winning percentage, fifth lowest since 1901.

@james_in_to 

Last time a team had a sub .300 win percentage in games decided by two or fewer were the '93 Mets. Other 3 teams all before '40s.

Just like the Orioles a couple years ago had a crazy good record in 1-run games, I think it's basically the opposite happening to the Blue Jays right now.  A blog looked into the Orioles that season, who went 29-9 in 1-run games and concluded:

Quote
What we see definitely backs up the logic:
*Elite one-run game performance appears to be random.
*It is somewhat more predictable when actual talent level is figured in.
*That is, very good teams will do slightly better in close games because they are, well, better, and...
*Very bad teams will also do slightly worse in close games because they are, well, worse.

...

The only things I could think of that may predict one-run game success is a very strong bullpen or an excellent tactician on the bench. The latter is impossible to measure, though I’d guess Buck Showalter falls somewhere short of "master strategist." As for the bullpen, well, I wasn’t going to pull reliever data for 2332 team seasons, but I DID pull it for the last three years (90 team seasons). Bullpen FIP had an 11.5% R2 with one-run game winning percentage, even stronger than the previous year’s Pythagorean winning percentage. It appears bullpen FIP, though not terribly predictive, is at least somewhat of a signal of one-run game capability. Unfortunately for the Orioles, their bullpen was merely average with a 3.68 FIP, so it doesn’t appear they have an edge there, either.

So, all of this is to confirm what we already knew – the Orioles, despite being a decent team with a decent bullpen last year, played WAY above their heads in one-run games. It’s not even remotely sustainable.

If you want to read whole thing: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/15/4105922/one-run-game-performance-unsustainable-orioles

Here's another from the same site looking at whether a great bullpen can change that:

Quote
The correlation between the two variables is so low that the coefficient of determination (R-squared) is almost zero and it is difficult to differentiate the line of best fit from the gridline. The slope of this line is also extremely low, which again shows that having an elite duo or trio of relief pitchers does not affect a team’s win-loss record in one-run games.

Perhaps the biggest differences come from the Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners. Miami, featuring a top three of Steve Cishek, Bryan Morris, and Mike Dunn that has combined for exactly three WAR, has a winning percentage of .627 in one run games. Contrarily, the Mariners’ trio of Fernando Rodney, Danny Farquhar, and Brandon Maurer has been worth 3.2 WAR this season, but the Mariners own a paltry .378 winning percentage in one run games. Additionally, the Mariners have the second highest total bullpen WAR in Major League Baseball, so the theory that pitchers other than Rodney, Farquhar and Maurer blow the games does not hold water.

Many have suggested that winning one-run games is not a sustainable skill but rather the result of random chance. This brief study supports that hypothesis by showing that even a dominant bullpen cannot help teams gain an edge in such contests. The Royals may have won seven of their last eight one run games and the bullpen may have pitched well in those games, but strength of bullpen is not a predictor of or way to ensure sustained success in such contests. One-run games are essentially a coin flip, and sometimes, due to basic laws of probability, a coin will land on the same side seven out of eight times. We should not be shocked by this and should avoid crediting someone or something for the success (or blaming for the failure, in the case of the teams playing the Royals), as either luck or something other than quality of relief pitchers is the driving force in the results of such games.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/22/6055447/the-effect-of-a-good-bullpen-in-one-run-games

Jays expected W-L Pythagorean record right now is 60-41.  Instead they are 50-51.  Toronto sports!

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs sign Mitch Marner to 3-year ELC
« on: July 29, 2015, 10:13:58 AM »
Tuesday’s contract signing was not the first time new Maple Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello had met the club’s top draft pick, Mitch Marner.

Both recalled a frantic NHL draft day in Florida a month ago, when Lamoriello was still in charge of the New Jersey Devils and Marner’s fate was unknown until the first-round roll call began that evening. Choosing seventh, three picks after the Leafs, Lamoriello interviewed the right winger/centre of the London Knights in case he would still be available.

“It was about a five or 10-minute talk, he was very nice and there was a lot of the usual draft interview tactics,” Marner recalled. “I met Lou again today and he was joking ‘I had to switch teams to finally get you’. ”


http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/28/leafs-sign-first-round-pick-marner

Was that really Lou telling a joke or should Marner be afraid for his safety right now?

He's old enough to potentially have invented the art of joking.

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