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Messages - Potvin29

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: Today at 11:40:46 AM »
So Friedman in his latest 30 Thoughts also states that Leafs are trying to find someone to take Ashton for a pick before going the waiver route.  Ridiculous if they're doing this so that Orr/McLaren can make the team.  Same as last season.

Yeah. I mean, sure, if Ashton legitimately was able to make the roster, better to trade him than expose him to waivers, but, to make that move to keep a useless face puncher/punchee on the roster? That's absurd. If it plays out that way, I hope he lights it up wherever he ends up.

And I don't think he'd be great somewhere else, but he's clearly shown he's more than capable in the AHL and he's obviously a better overall hockey player than both of those guys - so if they keep them over Ashton (as with Colborne) it's just deliberately making the team worse in favour of outdated thinking.

The kicker is that Ashton has a smaller cap hit than Orr too.

I think you're trying to combine two separate issues here...there are a couple of guys I'd put in Orr or McLaren's spot(s?) before Ashton, so I don't really have a problem with them trying to get something for him rather than lose him for nothing.

I think that is the thing to be careful about in this situation.  It is possible that Ashton is losing his spot to Leivo/Kozun instead.  Mind you with the injuries to Clarkson and Booth it is also likely that one or both of McLaren/Orr make the roster and that is just comedy if they are keeping them over Ashton...even as a 13th/14th forward.

Just trying to view the roster based on Nonis/Carlyle's history.  Leivo doesn't have to pass through waivers, so I imagine they will have no issue with sending him back down if it means keeping him at the expense of one or two vets.  I mean, they've lasted this long over how many times better players could have taken their spots?

Carter Ashton   
David Booth   
Tyler Bozak   
David Clarkson
Matt Frattin   
Peter Holland   
Nazem Kadri   
Phil Kessel   
Leo Komarov   
Brandon Kozun   
Josh Leivo   

Joffrey Lupul   
Frazer McLaren
William Nylander   
Colton Orr   
Mike Santorelli   
James van Riemsdyk   
Daniel Winnik

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: Today at 10:30:05 AM »
So Friedman in his latest 30 Thoughts also states that Leafs are trying to find someone to take Ashton for a pick before going the waiver route.  Ridiculous if they're doing this so that Orr/McLaren can make the team.  Same as last season.

Yeah. I mean, sure, if Ashton legitimately was able to make the roster, better to trade him than expose him to waivers, but, to make that move to keep a useless face puncher/punchee on the roster? That's absurd. If it plays out that way, I hope he lights it up wherever he ends up.

And I don't think he'd be great somewhere else, but he's clearly shown he's more than capable in the AHL and he's obviously a better overall hockey player than both of those guys - so if they keep them over Ashton (as with Colborne) it's just deliberately making the team worse in favour of outdated thinking.

The kicker is that Ashton has a smaller cap hit than Orr too.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: Today at 10:19:10 AM »
So Friedman in his latest 30 Thoughts also states that Leafs are trying to find someone to take Ashton for a pick before going the waiver route.  Ridiculous if they're doing this so that Orr/McLaren can make the team.  Same as last season.

4
I think people need to be reminded of Antoine Bibeau's QMJHL numbers:

Regular  48GP 3.17 GAA .907 SV%
Playoffs  24GP 2.80 GAA .913 SV%
Career  156GP 3.17 GAA .903 SV%

He looked good in the playoffs for stretches and had a decent preseason but people are jumping on this "he's awesome" horse way too early.

The Q is a scorer's league though. Bernier's best sv% in his time there was .909. Luongo's best was .903. MA Fleury's best, over a full season, was .915 and he wound up the #1 pick in the draft.

Junior numbers are always hard to parse but goalie numbers from the QMJHL? I don't think they're super-helpful.

Certainly, just trying to point out that he isn't a super generational talent goaltender and a few decent preseason performances in no way makes him NHL ready.

It is hard to say. IMO any goalie with a save % over .9 is good in my books.

Just being over .9 isn't good enough in this day and age.  A .905 goalie isn't a starter, you have to be at or above .915.  The top 10 goalies in terms of games started last year, the worst save% was .913 (Niemi)  5 of them were .915 or better, the other 4 were .920 or better.

I feel like he was referring to the Q? 

5
I think people need to be reminded of Antoine Bibeau's QMJHL numbers:

Regular  48GP 3.17 GAA .907 SV%
Playoffs  24GP 2.80 GAA .913 SV%
Career  156GP 3.17 GAA .903 SV%

He looked good in the playoffs for stretches and had a decent preseason but people are jumping on this "he's awesome" horse way too early.

This is obviously not thorough, but just clicking through some of the top goalies by SV% in the Q last season and through some of the ones from the Q drafted ahead of Bibeau, none of them have career Q SV%'s high than the .900-.905 range. 

Goalie stats in Jr. I find can be deceiving.

6
Quote
@draglikepull 
Here's why I still think it's a decent bet that Reimer's better than Bernier: Until last season, Reimer's EV SV% was .926. Bernier's - .920

@draglikepull 
Add in last season, and Reimer's still at .926. Bernier leaps up to match him at .926.

@draglikepull
I'm always skeptical of a goalie whose career numbers take a big jump based on one outstanding season.

@draglikepull
Here's a @BSH_EricT post on how EV SV% has (slightly) better predictive value than overall SV%: http://t.co/EbHIcId4yA

It's good to have two very good goalies.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: Yesterday at 01:38:07 PM »
Not sure how credible this is but:

Quote
@FAN590Walker 

Don't be surprised to learn of Carter Ashton trade (ala '13 Colborne) in next week. Won't get much, but don't think he'll stick with #Leafs

Depending on the return, if it's like Colborne, just another wasted player who could play at least ~10:00 on the 4th line over Frazon McLorrten.

8
Former Leafs: Ex-Files / Re: Kaberle on waivers
« on: Yesterday at 01:26:11 PM »
Too bad for him, seemed like he had a couple solid preseason games anyway.  Saw this from the 22nd on twitter:

Quote
@dtolensky 

Tomas Kaberle played a game-high 25:45 for the Devils tonight, including 3:53 on the PK. He was +2 and assisted on the GWG.

9
The Leafs PP has been sensational.

Total culture change here, new systems are awesome, Leafs could be considered cup favorites at this stage.

Their PP was tied for 5th last season so that's not really an area that needed much systems adjustment really.

10
Robidas is playing then?

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: September 29, 2014, 03:19:14 PM »
With Bodie out, I would have to agree.

I just can't believe they're keeping Orr/McLaren over Bodie.

Yeah. I mean, I would have been quite happy having none of them on the roster, but, if there's going to be one of them, it should be Bodie. He's at least a capable hockey player. The other two are not.

It is definitely based on fighting skill alone as which Bodie does NOT have to go with his size. 

McLaren is only a slightly better fighter but has a noticeably worse hockey IQ, slower skating and non-existent hockey skills. 

Orr is the toughest fighter but is the worst hockey player of the 3 by far... which is saying something.

Since everyone loses fights I would prefer to have Bodie's speed, hockey sense and better skill on the Leafs 4th line.  Like you guys, I don't understand cutting Bodie over McLaren and Orr.

Fighting is quite literally Orr's only 'skill.'  So the only thing he provides to the lineup is something that is diminishing league-wide.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Training Camp Thread
« on: September 29, 2014, 02:05:50 PM »
What happens to guy who gets injured on a PTO. Does he get any sort of medical pay?

They said Leafs were footing his medical bill.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: September 29, 2014, 01:53:59 PM »
Quote
@Michael_Traikos 

Carlyle on Orr: "Intimidation is involved in sports … . We don’t feel that our players should have to worry about any of those issues.

The guy fought 6 times, twice on opening night and not once after January (where he got beat).  Has concussion history.  Seriously, who is going to be intimidated by Orr being on the bench?

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: September 29, 2014, 01:29:55 PM »
Out of the Kontiola/Booth/Santorelli/Winnik FAs, the only guy that has looked like they deserve a spot is Winnik. Unless I was missing a lot, Santorelli didn't impress much.

I'd be happy to release the lot of them, and go with Leivo/Kozun/Carrick. The best off season add is Komorov. Stick an A on his shirt too! :)

To honest Komorov, hasn't shown me anything either. We will just have to wait. Unfortunately they can't just release them.

What were you expecting to see?

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Opening Forward Lines
« on: September 29, 2014, 12:58:48 PM »
Mark Masters says early indications are Franson just has bruised knee, but need swelling to go down to know for sure.

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