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Messages - Potvin29

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: Today at 12:01:38 AM »
I know it's probably less than 2% of the cap by the time we're competitive but it could still be the difference between signing a high-end 4th liner vs going with an AHL org guy.

Well, it's already less than 1.7% of the cap right now so unless you think there's a legitimate chance that the cap shrinks between now and then I don't really think there's a "probably" there.

But also I don't really think there's a chance that eating Kessel's money will have any kind of effect on building the team. If you look at the Chicago or LA models there was a pretty decent gap between when the teams got competitive and when the teams were pressed up against the cap. Having good young players on manageable contracts means you'll have room to pay 4th liners. Where teams get sticky is when you have to start paying your franchise players market rates but that's probably more than 7 years away in the Leafs case.

Was listening to the Mirtle-Siegel podcast today. It was pointed out that they've still got the Gunnarsson salary retention on the books for another season. It's a very small amount, but it eats another one of the three salaries they're allowed to retain.

So, that leaves one (until next season), and they've still got Lupul, Bozak, and Phaneuf to unload. They're older than Kessel, not as good, and on worse contracts. So, hard to believe trading partners won't expect those to be retained.

Just because salary was retained in Kessel's case doesn't make these players unmoveable without retaining salary.  If Leafs are able to take a contract back that they couldn't in the Kessel deal then there wouldn't have to be.  Salary retention isn't necessarily a reflection of quality or not of the player.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft - Draft Day!
« on: Yesterday at 07:47:48 PM »
Also, as I've pointed out on a number of occasions, stud defencemen are found outside the 1st round at a much greater frequency than top-end #1 centers. Weber, Subban, Chara, Keith - all taken outside the 1st round. Giordano went undrafted. Even 2nd tier guys like Josi, Brodie, Stralman, etc were drafted in the 2nd round or later. I can't think of a single top-end C who was. Some 2nd tier types, sure, but no one you'd feel comfortable with as the centrepiece of your top line.

Bergeron maybe.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias
« on: Yesterday at 07:21:06 PM »
I'm in the "liquidate" camp, but a guy like Lupul is obviously not movable...Bozak less so, but let's just say that they haven't found any takers.  Given this, maybe they've convinced themselves to roll the dice on a contender having injury issues mid-season to the extent that they need to make a deal for a top-6 forward, and the Leafs could move them for basically nothing.

I mean, at this point I can see other teams taking on Lupul only if a guy like Brown was thrown in the deal, and I don't think the Leafs are prepared to go down that road yet.

But that was kind of my point. The way I read what herman was saying, he was contending that hanging on to guys like Lupul and Bozak was a strategic choice to both drive up their value and to insulate younger players from the NHL.

The way I see it is that it's not a strategic choice, they're just stuck with some bad contracts. So it doesn't so much matter what they've "convinced" themselves or what sort of scenarios might pop up where a team might trade for Lupul, their hands are just tied there.

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.  If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, they'll have convinced themselves that Lupul on the roster is less costly than sending whatever prospect it would take to take Lupul in a deal.

My problem with this is that I think I'd rather have a Leivo in Lupul's spot this year, or one of the other 23 year olds.  If they're sending legitimate prospects to the ECHL because of a log jam, I have a problem with Lupul being part of the logjam. 

If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, management seems to disagree with me on this.

I think you're overestimating how many teams would be willing to take on an injury-prone winger with a $5.25M cap hit for 3 more seasons.  Even if the Leafs said they would take a 3rd rounder back, teams have to factor that hit into their roster and to be honest, as good as Lupul can be, I don't see him having a ton of value right now.  If you can only really count on getting a player 50-60% of the games?  Tough sell.

But really, it's July 7.

4
Well that put him in 81st (or a tie for 79th, not sure how to read that on NHL.com) among NHL forwards in points that season.  I wouldn't consider that disappointing since he was still 2nd C most of the season.

It was disappointing in the context of ultimately hoping that Kadri would turn into an elite forward. He dropped from being 4th in the entire league in points per 60 at even strength to 128th.

Well we knew as early as April of that season not to expect Kadri to repeat those types of numbers (I know I brought it up at least twice during his 13-14 season).  Mirtle wrote about it in April of 2013: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/leafs-nazem-kadri-one-lucky-man/article11176186/?page=all.

So if it was disappointing it only really should have been to those unwilling to accept that his production in the shortened season was unsustainable, which would account for his points per 60 being 4th in the entire league.  A guy not getting consistently 1st line minutes/opportunities was unlikely to repeat those kinds of numbers over 70+ games.

5
I'm not sure I'd worry too much about Kadri's offensive stats last season. At even-strength he produced at virtually the same rate as 13/14 where he put up 50 points. It was just his powerplay scoring that went into the toilet, but for whatever reason the entire 2nd unit just couldn't get anything done last season. I'm sure he won't repeat his 6-PP-point season again.

I'm not worried too much but to be honest I thought the 50 point season was a little disappointing too. So I'd still like to see him re-establish himself as an offensive player before I started getting overly concerned about his two-way play.

Well that put him in 81st (or a tie for 79th, not sure how to read that on NHL.com) among NHL forwards in points that season.  I wouldn't consider that disappointing since he was still 2nd C most of the season.

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Parenteau to Leafs?
« on: Yesterday at 02:15:40 PM »
JVR - Bozak - Parenteau
Lupul - Kadri - Panik
Spaling - Holland - Bailey
______ - _______ - Komarov

I'm giving up if Bozak is still on the top line.

Ya, me too.

I'm hoping to see at least one prospect in the lineup next year.

JVR/Kadri/Mathias
Lupul/Nylander/Parenteau
Komarov/Holland/Winnik
Spaling/Bozak/Panik

It's not a good lineup but Nylander's growth would be the one redeeming feature of the next year.

Nylander's not going from playing wing in the AHL to C on the 2nd line of an NHL team.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft - Draft Day!
« on: Yesterday at 01:27:34 PM »
Toronto media!


8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias
« on: Yesterday at 11:13:32 AM »
Kind of crazy, Matthias ranks 24th out of 218 forwards who have played at least 2000 5v5 minutes in goals/60 from 2012-2015.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft - Draft Day!
« on: Yesterday at 10:45:58 AM »
Ladies and Gentleman, Connor McDavid:

http://www.tsn.ca/video/mcdavid-scores-five-in-oilers-scrimmage-1.327003


Man, McDavid made those players look like a bunch of amateur prospects playing shinny hockey.

Made them look like a bunch of Oilers prospects.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias
« on: July 06, 2015, 10:14:53 AM »
Another C

He played mostly on the wing last year in Vancouver. Was just 6th on their team in faceoffs taken.

Hmm, you're right.  One of those guys I always thought was C but seems even the year before he didn't take all that many.

12
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Jeremy Bracco
« on: July 06, 2015, 10:02:35 AM »
The Hockey News-Draft Preview (2015) issue had Bracco listed as #74, fine this is just their opinion but their summary of him was:

"Skilled points machine soured scouts with his attitude"

Sure would like to know what this means?

1) The Hockey News is actually not a great publication
2) He didn't fawn over the media/excel at random weird questions during the interviews

I like him already.  So much so that I've already thought of a great nickname: Braccy

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias
« on: July 06, 2015, 10:01:37 AM »
Another C

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kadri signs 1-year extension
« on: July 05, 2015, 10:41:26 PM »
not really sure how he earned the raise as his previous contract of 2.9million per year was signed coming of a season with 44 pts in 48 games (.92ppg).

Now he is coming of a season of 39 pts in 73 games (.53ppg) and awarded 4.1 mil?

Because he was coming off his ELC and that was a shortened season.  This is nowhere near an overpayment.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kadri signs 1-year extension
« on: July 05, 2015, 07:30:22 PM »
He's not a 3rd liner.  He isn't played like a third liner and he doesn't produce like a third liner.

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