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Messages - CarltonTheBear

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1
It's too bad Hyman didn't get the memo that slashing a player who's going in all alone is totally legal in overtime situations. The league really needs to make sure those go out league-wide and not just to Galchenyuk.

2
Gardiner with the big lead in ice-time tonight:

Jake 23:42
Zaitsev 21:10
Rielly 19:58

3
Matthews
HM Gardiner

4
Diving continues to be the least properly called penalty in the game.

6
1st rounder for Riley Sheahan ah man this new 2nd intermission comedy show CBC is trying is fantastic.

A first rounder for a guy with zero goals.  Sounds like we could get a couple for Ben Smith then.

That has to be one of the craziest things I've heard an insider say.

7
1st rounder for Riley Sheahan ah man this new 2nd intermission comedy show CBC is trying is fantastic.

8
Leipsic and Kapanen are. But surely one of Rychel, Johnson, or Griffith has been playing well enough to be rewarded with an NHL game, no?

Well, on top of the injuries, the Marlies had a game today. They also have to be able to ice a lineup, so . . .

I mean I'm pretty sure the Leafs should have priority there.

The team knew something was up with Bozak yesterday. They should have been able to call someone up as a precaution.

9
No Bozak at practice today, Ben Smith lined up between JVR and Brown. That kind of leads me to believe that he'll be ready to play tonight though. If he was actually out it would probably be Gauthier in that spot.

10
@
32-21-8, 72 points | 28-20-12, 68 points

Projected Lines

Pacioretty-Danault-Radulov
Lehkonen-Galchenyuk-Gallagher
Byron-Plekanec-Shaw
Andrighetto-Desharnais-Mitchell

Emelin-Weber
Markov-Petry
Beaulieu-Nesterov

Price

             
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Komarov-Kadri-Leivo
JVR-Bozak-Brown
Martin-Gauthier-Soshnikov

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Marchenko
Hunwick-Polak

Andersen

Scratches

Michael McCarron
Brian Flynn
Greg Pateryn

      
Connor Carrick
Martin Marincin
Mitch Marner

Game Notes

MTL
•Carey Price (25-16-5, 2.43 GAA, .918 Sv%) will likely start for the Habs
•Montreal is just 1-2 in Claude Julien's first 3 games as head coach
•In their last 12 games the Habs have gone 3-8-1, with only 1 of their wins coming in regulation
•Montreal's massive lead in the Atlantic division has dwindled away to just 2 points over Ottawa, and the sens have 2 games in hand

TOR
•Andersen (24-13-11, 2.76 GAA, .915 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
•Mitch Marner will continue to sit out because of his injury
•A win tonight could put the Leafs within 2 points of Montreal, while also having a game in hand

Injuries

                                                                 
      
•Nathan Horton - Back - Out indefinitely
•Joffrey Lupul - ¯\_(?)_/¯ - Out indefinitely
•Stephane Robidas - Old - Out indefinitely
•Mitch Marner - Shoulder - Day to day
•Connor Carrick - Upper Body - Day to day

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams

11
Corsica.Hockey has line combos with xGF% and the unadjusted numbers looks approximately there. Not sure where Pirri-Barkov-Jagr comes from, as I can only see the other 4 combos (Pirri is with the Rangers this year). Reilly Smith is the fifth.

Ah cheers, didn't know CH added WOWYs and such. Although there's still some errors, like the fact that the Jokinen trio still shows up as having the best GF% together even though the article claims the Griffith line has that distinction.

12
Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

This was a table that was posted in that reddit link that was largely used as evidence for why Griffith is "actually good":

LINECF%        XGF%        GF%
Griffith-Barkov-Jagr63.20%66.80%77.00%
Jokinen-Barkov-Jagr59.40%63.90%74.40%
Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr54.20%57.80%68.90%
Marchessault-Barkov-Jagr        54.50%49.30%42.80%
Pirri-Barkov-Jagr55.00%46.80%61.00%

The argument was essentially Griffith helped Jagr and Barkov post the best results they've ever had.

I'll start by saying: I don't understand where that person got those xGF% numbers. From what I understand Puckalytics is the only resource that allows you to see a full line for WOWYs, and they don't include xGF% in their numbers. I'm not accusing him of pulling the numbers from nowhere but I'd like to see them for myself before reading too much into them so if I can't it's difficult to read into them much.

Second, when I did try to pull up the numbers for myself, I didn't get the same results the OP did. For instance, Puckalytics gives the Jokinen trio a 83.3% GF and 57.2% CF when they're together. Since the article doesn't specify a time line, I'm assuming that they're using career numbers, and not just this season. The post specifically says that Griffith helps Barkov and Jagr put up "flat out Goal differentials that they’d ever put up together". But right there Jokinen's numbers are actually better. With that said, that Jokinen line has only played about 107 minutes together, so it's a pretty small sample size. Which leads me to another problem...

... Why didn't the OP include TOI there? Probably because most of them are incredibly small like Jokinen's. Pirri only has about 66 minutes with those two, and again Puckalytics' numbers are different than the table: 66.7 GF% and 55.8% CF. Looking at Griffith's numbers specifically, he has about 87 minutes of ice-time with those two. Griffith averaged about 12 minutes with Florida so means they roughly played 7-8 games together. That just doesn't seem like nearly enough date to make any conclusions.

Anyways, yeah, the article as a whole just doesn't really pass the smell test. And quite frankly the Florida Panthers are the most analytically-inclined organization in the entire NHL. If those numbers held as much weight as the OP suggests they do I'd have to imagine they wouldn't have given him away for nothing.

13
That'd make it more difficult to sign Tavares, no?  :P

edit: .......especially since he's apparently still under contract that season.

Duh. Thornton retires after that one season after winning the Cup and Tavares signs to replace him.

14
If you're okay with making Brendan Leipsic happen, why does everyone seem to hate Seth Griffith?

Different side/styles, better production in equivalent stages of development. I didn't even know this existed until now.

Well, the fact that Griffith has had opportunities on 3 different teams now in the past year and was placed on waivers by all of them. Players generally don't get a 4th crack at this. Maybe that's not fair but that's often how it is.

15
Sorry Herman, you gotta stop trying to make Griffith happen.


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