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Messages - Potvin29

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: Today at 11:16:07 AM »
They're not saying he won't be an NHL player at all.  In fact, they say "he's most definitely a first round pick."

I was talking about the fact that they gave him the lowest success rate of the prospects that they looked at. But, that's fair. They do seem slightly more pro-Crouse than others have been. I can amend my statement to:

"There's a bunch of people out there who think that a smart player who is elite defensively at the junior level (admittedly something I'm not sure means much), an elite puck possession player by all accounts, and has some elite offensive skills won't be a very good NHLer because he possibly he had a low on-ice shooting percentage in the OHL and played on a crappy team."

I don't think that really changes the general point I'm talking about though in regards to Crouse and how people are relying too heavily on points-per-game here.

But to go back to your previous post where you mention Kocency and why he is given more benefit of the doubt than Crouse with respect to his team - it's because he has that better 16 year old PPG season that Crouse doesn't have.

All they are basically saying is that players with Crouse's points totals don't typically amount to much more than a 2nd/3rd liner in the NHL, if they amount to more then they are the exception, and a team shouldn't use a top 10 pick on him.  He might very well be worth a top 10 selection in the end, but it's basically playing the odds.  Odds are he won't be one of the exceptions to the rule - but he might be, and that's the risk a team will have to weigh.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: Today at 10:51:30 AM »
They're basically admitting that they don't think a smart player who is elite defensively at the junior level (admittedly something I'm not sure means much), an elite puck possession player by all accounts, and has some elite offensive skills won't be a NHL player because he possibly he had a low on-ice shooting percentage in the OHL and played on a crappy team.

They're not saying he won't be an NHL player at all.  In fact, they say "he's most definitely a first round pick."

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There go the Pens in round 1.

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Hope it signifies the departure of Bernier,  either Bibeau or Gibson (or rotate them) comes up and backs up Reimer.  Sparks moves to the Marlies and Nicols starts earning his keep in Orlando. Nice scenario, especialy if we can get a 2nd for Knuckles (a la Joe Bowden)


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Named General Manager and President of Hockey Operations:



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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: April 24, 2015, 01:43:45 PM »
I don't think it's just his size.  IMO, it's just his offensive production.  I love his size - but historically players who fail to produce significantly in their jr. draft seasons also fail to significantly produce offensively in the NHL.  I do have concerns that if he is able to physically dominate in jr, why can't he put up better offensive numbers?  There could be a whole host of reasons - but IMO, if you're a top 10 pick you would overcome that.

This is kind of what I mean though. Everybody knows that there are issues with Crouse's point production this season. Instead of asking if there are any viable reasons for the lack of production the anti-Crouse crowd tends to just say that the points should be there and they often point to his size as the reason for why he's ranked so high. Are Crouse's scoring problems because he just isn't offensive talented? Given what I've read from scouting reports a lot of them say that he does have good offensive skills. That's the big difference here for me between Crouse and guys like Biggs and Gauthier. They had noted limitations even at the time of the draft in regards to their offensive potential. I don't really get that sense with Crouse. Scouts say that he's often creating scoring chances himself.

So the question becomes if his low scoring isn't related to his lack of skills what's the deal? I think I brought up a bunch of very real explanations. His teammates can't score goals, his team has an extremely low shooting percentage, and his on-ice shooting percentage is likely unsustainably low. Aside from that, is it possible that he personally just had a cold streak that effected his point totals? He finished with 51 points in 56 games. He was a point-per-game player from January to March. If he doesn't go cold for a couple of weeks in November he likely hits the PPG mark for the entire season and then what? Are we still having this conversation?

Like I said, these all seem like things we would be looking at from an analytical perspective if a situation like this was happening in the NHL. I just find it interesting that it's largely the analytical community leading the anti-Crouse campaigns.

Here's a fairly in-depth look from a statistical perspective that doesn't take into account his size: http://canucksarmy.com/2015/2/21/is-lawson-crouse-a-top-10-prospect

Quote
On the positive side, Crouse's skating, puck handling and shooting all look to be at the elite level, which is why pundits such as myself struggle to understand why he doesn't score more than he does. Clearly, scouts drool over the potential to draft the next Todd Bertuzzi, with good reason.

19 of out 60 CHLers (25%) who were a similar size to Crouse and produced at a similar rate went on to play 200 NHL games. On average, these 25 NHLers produced at a 0.55 points-per-game rate, which is roughly the average for a second-line NHL player.

CONCLUSION

While there has been a lot of discussion around whether Crouse warrants the rank ISS/CSS and other project for him, the reality is that with roughly a 25% chance of success based on his historical cohorts, he's most definitely a first round pick. The art of drafting comes down to trying to figure out whether he's going to be part of the 25% in his cohort that make it, or the 75% that don't, and by the eye test there is definitely a lot to like about him.

However, looking at the NHLers in each prospects cohort, we see a lot of commonalities. Without a doubt, there are lots of good players listed, but very few stars. On average, each prospect projected to be a second line player, based on the players in their cohort, if they are successful in overcoming the odds to make it to the NHL in the first place.

So, is Crouse really a top 10 pick? It's actually difficult to say, but his average upside is nearly identical to a group of players ranked a handful of picks below him. History also tells us that Crouse has the largest bust potential of the players I looked at too, with around 75% of CHL players that produce in a similar manner and who are of a similar size missing the NHL. His well-rounded game arguably gives him a greater than ~25% shot at becoming an NHLer, however it's tough to say how much this increases his chances as we have seen solid defensive projections amount to absolutely nothing before.

With the Canucks unlikely to pick in the top ten, and players like Barzal, Merkley, Sprong, and Konecny likely to slide as a result, I sure hope Crouse is taken in the top-10 though!

There's plenty of examples of very good players who weren't PPG or were around PPG in their draft year going on to be much more successful in the NHL (Ryan Getzlaf to name one) but in a lot of the cases they were either drafted low 1st round and/or played C.

Or there's this:

Quote
After reading through the scouting reports and seeing how these players scored in juniors, I think Crouse compares most favourably to Pouliot, Skille, Setoguchi and Staal. They have similar scouting profiles being labelled good defensively, while having comparable offensive numbers.

Crouse has the potential to be a Gabriel Landeskog or Jordan Staal type of player, however he could just as easily end up as a Jack Skille or Benoit Pouloit type of guy. Crouse’s prototype has undeniably valuable assets, however you can find those assets in players later in the first round or even later in the draft.

Columbus currently holds a top ten pick and they, along with every other team, should be looking for an offensive superstar; leave Crouse on the board until the latter half of the first round.

http://bshockey.com/2015/finding-comparisons-crouse.html

For me what it boils down to is the conclusion a lot of these types of articles come down to: he may turn out to be an elite player, but the odds are that he won't and the skills he provides can likely be found with a later pick and be a better use of your draft assets than using a top 10 pick on him.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: April 24, 2015, 12:52:13 PM »
At least with someone like Strome you have 21 games where McDavid was not in the lineup and he produced at 1.67 PPG, or what would be 3rd best among draft eligible forwards in the OHL.  It's not a lot of games but it is something to consider.

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General NHL News & Views / Re: Sharks fire McLellan
« on: April 24, 2015, 11:46:58 AM »
Sharks loading up


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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: April 24, 2015, 10:06:01 AM »
Something else that I've noticed on this topic, and no offence to busta and others who say this, but you often hear the "it's just his size" line when people describe why scouts are so in love with him. Well, it kind of seems like that same line could be used to describe why others don't like him. Scouts can definitely be biased towards players with size at times, but it's also definitely possible for people to have a bias against size too. He's like the anti-Marner. Marner's critics write off his offensive talents because he's small. I think it's possible people are guilty of writing off Crouse's talents, offensive or otherwise, because he's big.

I don't think it's just his size.  IMO, it's just his offensive production.  I love his size - but historically players who fail to produce significantly in their jr. draft seasons also fail to significantly produce offensively in the NHL.  I do have concerns that if he is able to physically dominate in jr, why can't he put up better offensive numbers?  There could be a whole host of reasons - but IMO, if you're a top 10 pick you would overcome that.

That's basically the crux of it.  But to be clear - that's why I wouldn't take him top 5 or maybe even top 10.  But I'd take him later in the 1st round because he's supposedly so well rounded.

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All Sports But Hockey / Re: 2015 Toronto Blue Jays thread
« on: April 24, 2015, 09:36:24 AM »
Stroman threw at them last season and it's still happening.  Throwing a ball at 80-100 mph at a person is idiotic.  If they want to do it, let them be the idiots.

Stroman got suspended for it. Meanwhile they keep throwing at Bautista with impunity.

That's my point - Stroman hitting their player didn't even things up between the teams.  Baltimore's still doing it.  So Jays hit them, they hit Jays, Jays hit them, they hit Jays.  What's the point?  Grow up and move on, let them take the punishment for it and focus on winning.

Winning games isn't stopping it either.

I didn't watch the games but didn't hear of any Jays retaliation and they swept them, so doesn't seem like it affected the Jays much by not retaliating and nothing further happened.  Who knows if it's stopped for good.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2015 NHL Entry Draft
« on: April 24, 2015, 08:20:00 AM »
I wonder how much of an impact Stromes's play in the OHL playoffs would have on his draft position. How much weight does a team like Arizona (or the Leafs for that matter) put on players playoff performance in his draft year? He has kind of fizzled out a bit since the last series. If he continues to struggle to score, does his stock drop, or have the scouts already made up their minds on him, based on his terrific regular season?

Which series is the last series?  If it's since Erie's actual last series, they've only played 1 game.

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Haha wow, the refs called the Senators for a face-off guy getting kicked out twice.

I've literally never seen that called all year.


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All Sports But Hockey / Re: 2015 Toronto Blue Jays thread
« on: April 22, 2015, 04:22:47 PM »
Stroman threw at them last season and it's still happening.  Throwing a ball at 80-100 mph at a person is idiotic.  If they want to do it, let them be the idiots.

Stroman got suspended for it. Meanwhile they keep throwing at Bautista with impunity.

That's my point - Stroman hitting their player didn't even things up between the teams.  Baltimore's still doing it.  So Jays hit them, they hit Jays, Jays hit them, they hit Jays.  What's the point?  Grow up and move on, let them take the punishment for it and focus on winning.

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How do people define how many dimensions a player has? Is it just offence and defence? In that case a large amount of the league, even those players who are getting paid big bucks, are only one dimensional players. What separates everyone is just how good they are at their specific dimension. And Kessel is damn-good at his.

I never hear guys like Polak (to pick a quick example) called "one-dimensional" - for them it's all about their character, etc even though their one dimension is that they're supposedly strong defensively.  But the vast majority of the league is one-dimensional by and large.

Don't even get me started on Bernier.  He's all goaltending and nothing else.

It's an interesting question.  Kessel is considered one-dimensional because most of what he does is on the offensive side of the puck, and he takes a lot of crap because he doesn't excel on defence.  If he hustled back, stopped cheating and played solid defence, that would make him a more complete player, but that would probably come at a cost in terms of production.  So, would you rather see him as a one-dimensional player scoring 40 goals/year, or would scoring 20 goals/year and playing great defence (being a complete player) make him more palatable?  I don't think he wins in either situation.

I heard someone talking about J. Toews this morning (another player??), saying he's likely a 40-goal scorer, and fairly easily if he were to cheat on his defensive duties.  But he won't do it.  So he gets labeled as a complete player, but you could make an argument that he's not living up to his offensive potential.

Well not everyone can play both ways like Toews, or Bergeron no matter how hard they try.  Which is why players like that are rare and very, very valuable.

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How do people define how many dimensions a player has? Is it just offence and defence? In that case a large amount of the league, even those players who are getting paid big bucks, are only one dimensional players. What separates everyone is just how good they are at their specific dimension. And Kessel is damn-good at his.

I never hear guys like Polak (to pick a quick example) called "one-dimensional" - for them it's all about their character, etc even though their one dimension is that they're supposedly strong defensively.  But the vast majority of the league is one-dimensional by and large.

Don't even get me started on Bernier.  He's all goaltending and nothing else.

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