2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[bustaheims]

Yes necessarily. Struddy played in the NHL and that's how he would take it.

Okay, so because one former player would take it that way means every player would take it that way?

Also, how it's present absolutely matters. There's a huge difference between going to Marner and saying "here's a trade we've been offered that we'd like to accept" and "we've been offered this trade, our preference to keep you, but if you intend to sign elsewhere, we don't want to lose you for nothing." And, based on the way his response has been presented - that he intends to sign here - that feels like how it was presented. Not as seeing Rantanen as the better player but as the better alternative than the team being left with nothing if/when Marner decides to sign elsewhere.

 

[L K]

I really hope the PK turns it around. On paper that more than anything is probably the biggest improvement right now than any other aspect of the line-up.

I also think it might be time to take Knies off of the penalty kill. They tried it last season too and it only lasted a few months. Think he's got potential there eventually but right now there's just better options.

Lorentz has played about half as much PK time as Knies and Matthews since January 1st but his on-ice numbers are like ridiculously better. 67 CA/60 vs. about 120 CA/60 for Knies and Matthews. 3.31 xGA/60 for Lorentz while Knies is at 8.73 and Matthews 12.53. And Lorentz hasn't been on the ice for a single 4v5 goal since Dec. 23rd while Knies and Matthews have each been on for 7 in 2025. Like I'm not expecting Lorentz's numbers to stay like that with increased responsibility obviously but what else does he have to do to earn more minutes there especially while others are struggling?

PK pairings for me would be like Marner-Laughton, Lorentz-Kampf, and then Jarnkrok with maybe Marner again if they want to swing that or I guess Matthews if they want to keep trotting him out there.

Mitch is 20th in the NHL is PK TOI/Game. Everyone else around him are 3rd liner/specialist players.

Our bottom 6 doesn't score enough goals....they shouldn't be forced to have our stars cover PK duties to this extent as well. Marner is a really good Penalty killer and while I think Matthews is decent too with him injured right now they should be maximizing his 5 on 5 defense over PK duty.

Lorentz getting frozen out makes no sense. Lorentz is down to 50 seconds of PK time per game since the start of February.

Laughton and Jarnkrok eating into Lorentz minutes is fine but it should be eating into Matthews/Marner/Knies more.

 

[cabber24]

I don't think any team needs 8-figure guys killing penalties. Bad ice-time management. I like a two-way star but stars killing penalties is not a selling feature for me. We want these guys fresh and scoring. There are guys worth a lot less money who are very capable penaltykillers. I don't want to pay more for stars because they're on the PK.

 

[dappleganger]

I loved Sundin killing penalties. He was really goos at it.

I like the best players doing it all. Now, would I have my best guys being the "number one" PK unit? Maybe not.

 

[bustaheims]

I loved Sundin killing penalties. He was really goos at it.

I like the best players doing it all. Now, would I have my best guys being the "number one" PK unit? Maybe not.

Agreed. It's one thing to have their role on the PK lessened to help maximize their impact, but, when they're good at it, no sense taking them off. Having that extra threat of a potential SH goal can help put a little extra pressure on the PP. Just need to find the right balance.

 

[L K]

Agreed. It's one thing to have their role on the PK lessened to help maximize their impact, but, when they're good at it, no sense taking them off. Having that extra threat of a potential SH goal can help put a little extra pressure on the PP. Just need to find the right balance.

I like them at the end of the PK to try and catch a transition cycle or change on the fly if PP1 has been out for a while to try and take advantage of a tired offense. I think you want them on the ice but playing 2+ minutes in March.....save that for May.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Woll has had another very good game.

 

[L K]

Woll has had another very good game.

Samsonov started losing the net around now last year. This is a good opportunity for Woll to win the playoff starter job with Stolarz being shaky (in fairness its only been a couple of games and he could go right back to being awesome here on out).

 

[Guilt Trip]

Samsonov started losing the net around now last year. This is a good opportunity for Woll to win the playoff starter job with Stolarz being shaky (in fairness its only been a couple of games and he could go right back to being awesome here on out).

Want both of them hot down the stretch. Woll has more playoff experience and has been good in the post season, albeit small sample size.

 

[dappleganger]

No you don't. I happened to pick two from long ago to show how long guys like that have been around on Cup winners

Yanni Gourde won two Cups with Tampa
Martin St. Louis won a Cup with Tampa
Doug Jarvis, four Cups with the Habs
Brian Gionta won Cup with the Devils
Theo Fleury won a Cup with Calgary
Jonathan Marchessault won a Cup and the Conn Smythe with Vegas
Doug Gilmour won a Cup with Calgary
Brad Marchand won a Cup with the Bruins

I'm sure there are more.

I'd say Pavel Datsyuk is a fair comparable to Mitch Marner for a guy who won a cup.

 

[Ozzie]

I was down on the Leafs for not doing much to activate their PP, but they have definitely turned it around.

Currently they have been 4th best in the league since Jan 1, and rank 7th best for the entire season at 25.3%. Very healthy number and a dramatic change from being closer to the bottom months ago - and a good time to get their special teams activated.

 

[Ozzie]

Want both of them hot down the stretch. Woll has more playoff experience and has been good in the post season, albeit small sample size.

I met Andrew Raycroft in Boston when I was down there for the US Canada final game and asked him this question. He said he would play Woll Game 1 for the same reason.... because he has demonstrated he can perform in the playoffs.

It is a small sample size and I'm more of a Stolarz fan. Both have slid lately but maybe the Calgary game is the moment Woll turns around his slide and takes the pole position for Game 1 starter. He was good.

 

[cw]

I think I will also add, defense is a team stat and I don't think there's any coach that will argue against the point that wingers are the least important in that equation;

That likely has some limited merit. But coaches also know defense is a 'team stat' that is accomplished by a group of individuals they coach to play a certain way defensively. Some are better at it than others. Regardless of coach, the last 9 seasons has shown that if you have Nylander as a winger, the team defense is not as good as it would be if Marner was there instead. All the Leafs coaches recognized that as shown by their deployment. It is not hard for the casual observer to see why.

In that 2022-23 Tampa series, Nylander got lit up with 8 ES goals against while he was on the ice to Marner's 1. Marner reduced goals against compared with Nylander when it mattered most and put up more points than anyone else on the team. That's what Marner did and yet fans like you and the media don't give him credit with "Marner style hockey has done jack squat in the playoffs" The team didn't defend him in the media for a long time either and it may cost them July 1st as he can rightfully say that the management did not rush in there to get his back when the media attacked.

As for wingers defensive prowess, the Russians raved about winger Bob Gainey's defense and the NHL gave winger Bob all those Selke trophies. Most Selke winners have been centers but not all of them - wingers Dirk Graham, Craig Ramsay & Jere Lehtinen also got the award. Winger Marner was a Selke finalist as were wingers Esa Tikkanen, Jari Kurri and other wingers. The blunt fact is that there are some wingers in this league's history who have been recognized as having provided outstanding defense - beyond whatever notions one might have about the term "defense" and stats. Mitch Marner is now recognized as one of them. William Nylander is not as he's never received a Selke vote and probably never will because he doesn't seem to have the mind or desire for it.

Very roughly, lets say hockey is played 24 mins in one zone, 24 mins in the other zone and 12 in the neutral zone. If you're going to pay Marner a couple of mil more, you are getting that caliber of play in all three zones for the whole time while he is on the ice. With Nylander, you are getting some fraction of that. You could add a second player to help Nylander but the money is close to the same while you have used up an extra roster spot to do what Marner alone brings. So Marner is still better value getting a few more bucks than Nylander.

Now there is the talk about getting two players from one core 4 salary. The combination of a drop in Tavares salary and the rise in the cap kind of does that already this season. But lets play along. You could split Marner's cap hit but you are losing him for nothing July 1. Or you could split Nylander's and trade him for something - get something back - if he would waive. If you got two 5.75Mil forwards who could score some and play decent defense you might be ahead of the game trading Nylander. But that's harder to do with Marner because he's so good defensively already. However, we may be at the point of no return with Marner so ...

 

[cabber24]

I think cw is a Marner fan. We all like regular-season Mitch. We don't like a core that can't do squat in the playoffs.

Nylander is signed and Marner isn't. The decision now is what to do with Marner. You're right that team could get worse without him but if the 7th playoff run with this core doesn't work I am willing to see what's on the other side.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I like Mitch Marner. I would rather he be a Leaf For Life. At the same time, I would like the Leafs to win a cup soonish. I'm not saying it's because of Mitch Marner that the Leafs haven't won. Maybe the money could be better spent elsewhere.

We really don't know the facts of the situation. Have the Leafs made an offer? Has Marner's camp said how much they want?

It seems to me Marner wants to see what the UFA market will pay him, and go back to the Leafs with that number. He wants to have his cake and eat it too.

I think both 34 and 88 could have got more on the open market, but they decided they wanted to be Leafs and signed for what made them happy. I don't understand why Marner can't do the same.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. Either he signs before July 1st or he goes to UFA.

 

[Bill_Berg]

It's highly unlikely Nylander would waive. Marner is the only option to go. They either sign him and roll it back, or they let him walk and try something else. I don't know whats better, I'm just sick of watching them lose in the playoffs..

 

[cw]

I think cw is a Marner fan. We all like regular-season Mitch. We don't like a core that can't do squat in the playoffs.

I was not very excited when they drafted Marner. I had concerns about his size.
I'm a fan of him like I am nearly all Leafs players and prospects.
I have no special desire to own his jersey or get his autograph or worship the ice he skates on.
I get more of a kick out of players like Lorentz, McMann or Benoit when they do well.

What has triggered me on Marner the most is what has gone down in the past year.
I think he has been wrongfully singled out as a problem.
He's not just their leading scorer in the regular season. He's doing that in the playoffs too.
But more importantly for me is his two way play. He's doing that in the playoffs as well.
That is what sets him apart for me. Lots of guys can put up points in the league.
But he and Matthews are very good defensively. You need that as much as scoring to win playoff series.

If a team is concerned with playoff scoring, getting rid of their leading playoff scorer is not usually the best path to correct that problem. As a Leafs fan, I do not want to see them do something stupid. We suffered through a terrible season to get that #4 pick. I do not want to see it thrown away wrongfully.

I have gone further to determine the core 4 got about 50% of the goals last playoff in 16% of the ice time.
The core 4's salaries are roughly commensurate with the numbers they have put up.
It is their supporting cast that is the bigger problem.

Covid affected the cap so management has some excuse.
But the trading away of young assets happened too soon. They need to bank more before they started to do that.
The Wings did that in the late 2000s - got great price performance on their roster from developing youth.
Consequently, the Leafs do not have a lot of good young economical talent flowing on to their roster - which tightens their cap issues.
So on the other end of the pay scale, a hunk of this cap and talent depth problem is self inflicted by management mortgaging the future for short term rentals.
For the balance of the Matthews window, they're not going to have any.
No one on the core 4 is to blame for that.

I'm not in love with Marner. He's just a very good player.
The one thing I would say about him is if you asked me who the smartest players were to ever dress for the Leafs in the 60+ years I've watched them, Marner would quickly be on that list. You watch the little things he does ie how he manages the puck or the lines he takes when reading and reacting, etc. His mental wheels are always spinning and so frequently right. A lot of fans do not seem to get that about him. Before they throw that away, I think they need to be careful. You do not see a lot of players like this in a lifetime. Of course, they may have pissed him off too much already, letting him be a piñata in the media while not rushing to defend him.

 

[cw]

On the subject of 'smarts' ... and the core 4 cap space
This Rantanen for two 1sts, Cowan & Minten deal ... (if that happened as many report it did)
The core 4 money winds up in a similar place as it does with re-signing Marner without the Rantanen deal.
Or if they had traded Marner for Rantanen, the core 4 also winds up in a similar cap place. Because of taxes Rantanen would have cost the Leafs more in cap space than Dallas due to taxes being less in Texas.
Either way, Treliving wanted a core 4 in terms of dollars (less what Tavares deal would cost whether they had Marner or Rantanen)

Rantanen vs Marner, two 1sts, Cowan & Minten should be a management no brainer to avoid the Rantanen deal in normal circumstances.

All this Treliving behavior potentially smells of the relationship between management and Marner having eroded badly to the point Treliving fears Marner will leave for nothing. The guy wanted to negotiate and re-sign last May. If a damaged relationship is the result, management messed up. It is a team sport and management did not stand up promptly for their teammate. "Let's let the media devalue him for a while to erode his negotiating position ... or maybe we could trade him .." ??
Not a smart thing to do with a blue chip asset who is holding all the cards with his NMC because you risk losing a top player for nothing who wanted to re-sign.

 

[dappleganger]

On the subject of 'smarts' ... and the core 4 cap space
This Rantanen for two 1sts, Cowan & Minten deal ... (if that happened as many report it did)
The core 4 money winds up in a similar place as it does with re-signing Marner without the Rantanen deal.
Or if they had traded Marner for Rantanen, the core 4 also winds up in a similar cap place. Because of taxes Rantanen would have cost the Leafs more in cap space than Dallas due to taxes being less in Texas.
Either way, Treliving wanted a core 4 in terms of dollars (less what Tavares deal would cost whether they had Marner or Rantanen)

Rantanen vs Marner, two 1sts, Cowan & Minten should be a management no brainer to avoid the Rantanen deal in normal circumstances.

All this Treliving behavior potentially smells of the relationship between management and Marner having eroded badly to the point Treliving fears Marner will leave for nothing. The guy wanted to negotiate and re-sign last May. If a damaged relationship is the result, management messed up. It is a team sport and management did not stand up promptly for their teammate. "Let's let the media devalue him for a while to erode his negotiating position ... or maybe we could trade him .." ??
Not a smart thing to do with a blue chip asset who is holding all the cards with his NMC because you risk losing a top player for nothing who wanted to re-sign.

This is a very good point I haven't heard a lot of people make. If the Leafs had sent the package of 2-1st plus Cowan and Minten, and then have Mitch leave in free agency, that would have been a colossal screw up of asset management.

 

[Ozzie]

This is a very good point I haven't heard a lot of people make. If the Leafs had sent the package of 2-1st plus Cowan and Minten, and then have Mitch leave in free agency, that would have been a colossal screw up of asset management.

I think the screw up goes back to earlier years of negotiating a 2 year NMC at the end of the contract, and not moving him prior to it kicking in.

Leafs have zero leverage at that point.

It's a bargaining failure and asset management failure that is entirely on the shoulders of Dubas and Shanahan.