2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[GhostofPotvin29]

I knew! I knew! I said it the day after it was signed!

"In almost every other case" doesn't mean much when you're dealing with such an outlier in cap allocation.

After seeing Edmonton in the final with Jack Campbell, Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse taking up over $17 million in cap space, I don’t take it seriously that they couldn’t have won with this cap allocation, the players just needed to be stars in the playoffs and they weren’t.

 

[herman]

I don't know that Marner needs to be hitched to Matthews. He has 74 points in 60 games when Matthews is out of the lineup. Two coaches in a row seem to think the team is at its best when the two of them are together. That doesn't fall on Marner. Unless he's refusing to play if he's not with Matthews. And if that's the case, we have a whole other story. It would be like telling the coach that the reason you're not trying is because he's not giving you enough ice time.

I don't think he needed to be hitched to them either, but only one coach so far insisted on separating them (but he's an asshole) and they both looked more dangerous apart. Separating them at 5v5 more regularly could also get that 74 pts in 60 games effect for free, right?

I don't know what was said in the coach's office or the dressing room, but I do know Marner's agent publicly aired multiple grievances during the last negotiation, and some of them were: not being allowed to play regular minutes with Matthews, and getting a couple 4th line shifts one game that was super insulting. Once Keefe was onboarded, Marner was immediately paired with Matthews and their playtime goosed too high so there was nothing extra left in the postseason.

For all the magic that pairing created in the regular season, they both tanked with alarming regularity in the playoffs (together). The regular season magic meant the coaching staff was rarely incentivized to try different looks for very long, which left them a bit hamstrung for options when the top line inevitably went cold. Similar with PP1 deployment in the playoffs.

My theory is opposing coaches just game planned them by iso covering Matthews, and Marner kept looking for Matthews, confident that he could pull it off. Some times it worked, and most of the time they got to focus on defense. I think Marner can be effective in the playoffs (we saw glimpses most recently), but it isn't going to work with his default mode of slowing up in the OZ and trying to methodically pick the perfect seam. Multiple coaches may have kept 34-16 together, but multiple opposing coaches snuffed them out rather too easily*.

* I know they put up some numbers occasionally, but they're paid ~11M, and performing at 4-9M levels is a pretty big hit to the depth.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't know what was said in the coach's office or the dressing room, but I do know Marner's agent publicly aired multiple grievances during the last negotiation, and some of them were: not being allowed to play regular minutes with Matthews, and getting a couple 4th line shifts one game that was super insulting.

I agree with everything you said, I just wanted to touch on this line:

Not that it matters, but do we feel that any of this was driven by Marner? We know that Ferris plays this game with every player he's represented. He knows(or thinks he knows) that Marner's next contract will be more if he puts up ridiculous numbers playing with Matthews.

I mean really, if Marner is that much of a prima donna, good riddance.

 

[dappleganger]

I don't think he needed to be hitched to them either, but only one coach so far insisted on separating them (but he's an asshole) and they both looked more dangerous apart. Separating them at 5v5 more regularly could also get that 74 pts in 60 games effect for free, right?

I don't know what was said in the coach's office or the dressing room, but I do know Marner's agent publicly aired multiple grievances during the last negotiation, and some of them were: not being allowed to play regular minutes with Matthews, and getting a couple 4th line shifts one game that was super insulting. Once Keefe was onboarded, Marner was immediately paired with Matthews and their playtime goosed too high so there was nothing extra left in the postseason.

For all the magic that pairing created in the regular season, they both tanked with alarming regularity in the playoffs (together). The regular season magic meant the coaching staff was rarely incentivized to try different looks for very long, which left them a bit hamstrung for options when the top line inevitably went cold. Similar with PP1 deployment in the playoffs.

My theory is opposing coaches just game planned them by iso covering Matthews, and Marner kept looking for Matthews, confident that he could pull it off. Some times it worked, and most of the time they got to focus on defense. I think Marner can be effective in the playoffs (we saw glimpses most recently), but it isn't going to work with his default mode of slowing up in the OZ and trying to methodically pick the perfect seam. Multiple coaches may have kept 34-16 together, but multiple opposing coaches snuffed them out rather too easily*.

* I know they put up some numbers occasionally, but they're paid ~11M, and performing at 4-9M levels is a pretty big hit to the depth.

Just wanted to point out that in the 2024 playoffs against the Bruins, Marner and Matthews spent less than 10 minutes together. (On a line/5-on-5)

 

[mr grieves]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932442616072933634

Good piece and this is a great passage:

When a player demands more than his closest peer (Mikko Rantanen, signed for $9.25 million over six years in the same offseason) and his closest comparable (Patrick Kane signed for the 2019-20 equivalent of $9 million over five years) by a substantial margin, he is setting a higher standard for himself. It’s a standard fans will hold him accountable to.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't think he needed to be hitched to them either, but only one coach so far insisted on separating them (but he's an asshole) and they both looked more dangerous apart. Separating them at 5v5 more regularly could also get that 74 pts in 60 games effect for free, right?

Do you have any evidence to back up that they looked more dangerous apart than together?

 

[cabber24]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932442616072933634

A bit of a Mic drop article for me. The value relative to his peers has not been there.

 

[herman]

I agree with everything you said, I just wanted to touch on this line:

Not that it matters, but do we feel that any of this was driven by Marner? We know that Ferris plays this game with every player he's represented. He knows(or thinks he knows) that Marner's next contract will be more if he puts up ridiculous numbers playing with Matthews.

I mean really, if Marner is that much of a prima donna, good riddance.

I think the best way to ascertain that is to cross-reference what Ferris has publicly said or had Insider mouthpieces voice for his other clients. From what I've seen so far, it's usually they like to go to the end of the contract and get to UFA, or we've got offersheets (Broberg signed), or some standard we'd like a trade (Josh Anderson). There's very little else about how the player personally felt about on-ice decisions or perceived insults from the team. Sam Bennett is a Ferris client and it sounds like the number is getting high around the league, which we've heard from Marner's camp, but everything else is just normal jockeying.

I have not heard of any other instance of an agent literally going on record the day after a teammate is signed to try to leverage the mindshare of the fanbase and steer the reaction to push for a higher number for his client. Ferris hasn't done that for any of his other clients either.

 

[herman]

Do you have any evidence to back up that they looked more dangerous apart than together?

Eye test lol

Matthews carries the puck more, apart from Marner, which makes him a dual threat. Matthews without Marner (and without injury): still rips the friggin' puck like no one else. PP with Matthews and no Marner, unpredictable, still lots of routine goals.

Marner takes charge and shoots more without Matthews, which makes him a dual threat. PP with Marner and no Matthews: diverse, lights out, and nearly automatic for every other shooting option.

When they're together, it's pretty obvious to everyone on the ice what they want to happen. Extremely predictable. Other linemate barely exists, except to eat shit on the forecheck.

I also don't care for Nylander with Matthews; they make each other play lazy.

 

[herman]

Just wanted to point out that in the 2024 playoffs against the Bruins, Marner and Matthews spent less than 10 minutes together. (On a line/5-on-5)

There were some mitigating circumstances to that series, if I recall correctly. Matthews was cooking with Domi/Bertuzzi while Marner was injured after the deadline (the silliest self-inflicted injury, I might add), so Keefe was loathe to break that up now that he finally got a useful Domi. Then Nylander migrained out of the series start, so Tavares did not have his usual hard carry option, and they tried Tavares-Marner for matchups.

Then Matthews got injured as Nylander started to come back, and the final game didn't want Matthews in a tough spot against top lines when he was still clearly ailing, so they inserted him L3 (he set up Nylander for their only goal).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Eye test lol

Matthews carries the puck more, apart from Marner, which makes him a dual threat. Matthews without Marner (and without injury): still rips the friggin' puck like no one else. PP with Matthews and no Marner, unpredictable, still lots of routine goals.

Marner takes charge and shoots more without Matthews, which makes him a dual threat. PP with Marner and no Matthews: diverse, lights out, and nearly automatic for every other shooting option.

When they're together, it's pretty obvious to everyone on the ice what they want to happen. Extremely predictable. Other linemate barely exists, except to eat shit on the forecheck.

I also don't care for Nylander with Matthews; they make each other play lazy.

If you take the three seasons prior to this last one as an example, when together at 5v5 the Leafs had 61% of the goals with those two on the ice together in over 2000 minutes. To me that is elite, elite production, probably among the tops in the league for comparable minutes.

I could buy a lineup balance argument, but I think the argument that either player is better or has played better away from the other doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. I’m sure they’ve had stretches of playing great without the other, because they’re great players, but they were incredible together as well.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think we should run three lines that suit and support the primary playdriver on each of those lines.

Matthews: works well with forecheckers who can cycle, and one other shooting threat so Matthews isn't super-iso'd

Nylander: needs a defensive centre that's not slow, and works well with wingers who can play off the rush

Tavares: needs speedy forecheckers who can cycle (to the point for tip options) and knock pucks into the slot off the walls for Tavares to clean up

I don't think any of these complementary options really requires significant expense.

The biggest thing I wonder about in a post-Marner world is how the elite level match-ups work. For all the deserved criticism Marner got he typically was a big part of that role, even in the playoffs when he wasn't producing (2024 being a good example).

Can Matthews keep holding those minutes without another Selke-caliber player beside him? If it's someone like Domi or say Patrick Kane that might be tough. Maybe if Marchand ends up here he could take that spot having played RW a lot but I think he'd be better suited to playing alongside Nylander (already has experience playing alongside another high end RW with the #88).

Does Tavares transition into more of a match-up 3C? I've always sorta wondered if he was capable of that (I've been saying since he signed here that he should be PK'ing but coaches never seem to agree). Maybe with the right wingers. I think he has the smarts and the compete level although lack of foot speed could be an issue.

 

[herman]

If you take the three seasons prior to this last one as an example, when together at 5v5 the Leafs had 61% of the goals with those two on the ice together in over 2000 minutes. To me that is elite, elite production, probably among the tops in the league for comparable minutes.

I could buy a lineup balance argument, but I think the argument that either player is better or has played better away from the other doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. I’m sure they’ve had stretches of playing great without the other, because they’re great players, but they were incredible together as well.

No denying they were elite together; it's a zero-sum game though because stacking them together all the time meant they didn't explore if these two superstars could elevate a couple of other depth players to an effective level. Bottom 6 is relegated to clock draining shifts, while people complain about their inability to put up numbers. I was not surprised by Treliving's opening emphasis on trying to make the Leafs more of a team.

Also, 61% of the goals in the regular season 5v5 never really showed up in the playoffs because they leaned into being a shutdown line, when a huge whack of the cap dollars for offense were allocated there. Like spending money on a long range rifle but insisting on just bashing stuff with the stock. They weren't even that good a shutdown line this past playoffs.

 

[herman]

The biggest thing I wonder about in a post-Marner world is how the elite level match-ups work. For all the deserved criticism Marner got he typically was a big part of that role, even in the playoffs when he wasn't producing (2024 being a good example).

Can Matthews keep holding those minutes without another Selke-caliber player beside him? If it's someone like Domi or say Patrick Kane that might be tough. Maybe if Marchand ends up here he could take that spot having played RW a lot but I think he'd be better suited to playing alongside Nylander (already has experience playing alongside another high end RW with the #88).

Does Tavares transition into more of a match-up 3C? I've always sorta wondered if he was capable of that (I've been saying since he signed here that he should be PK'ing but coaches never seem to agree). Maybe with the right wingers. I think he has the smarts and the compete level although lack of foot speed could be an issue.

The two options seem to be either Power v Power (Barkov-Reinhart) or Defense Specialist (Pierre Engvall-David Kampf reunion?!). I think we need a third way.

Why not just let all the line combos try it out and get that stress testing throughout the regular season, backed by McCabe-Tanev and whoever the secondary pair is? Work that full buy-in on the defensive structure up and down the line up from the start. Wouldn't it be good for the team if Nylander got more reps and coaching on actual DZ play instead of being sheltered after being pretty decent on the PK previously? Wouldn't it be good if Matthews got freed up to just do extra damage once in awhile?

Leafs keep getting caught in the playoffs when their regular season standard gets tipped over and they have nothing to fall back on because they never invested in building up anything else.

Anyway, bring back Connor Brown.

 

[herman]

I suspect Vegas might LTIR Pietrangelo instead

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932830952561967512

lol

 

[Bender]

I mean they had 11 different goal scorers in that series. They lost because, among other things, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman combined for 2 goals total. Leafs actually outscored Montreal by 4 goals in that series (lol). It’s hard for me to buy that a team lost because of lack of depth when the team that beat them scored even less - wouldn’t that mean they had even less scoring depth?

I really don't care to re-litigate these debates over and over when they didn't get it done. The fact is they needed to score more goals when they needed it and give up fewer goals when they needed it and they didn't do it and to me that comes down partially to depth in general, especially when you're relying on stars to score and you remove one of them. If you want to say it's not a depth issue, fine, but either provide a counterpoint beyond a "that's how the cookie crumbles" or you're just defending playoff mediocrity in its highest degree.

 

[Bender]

So, is it an indictment on Marner, or an indictment on the Leafs? They have a top 5 scorer in the league and they don't give him the tools to be able to produce at that level in the playoffs. Domi isn't that tool. Bertuzzi isn't that tool. They should be, but they don't have the "maturity" to play like Bennett and Marchand.

I don't agree that Marner can't perform in the playoffs. I feel that he hasn't been set up to succeed in the playoffs. Marner is visible most shifts he plays in the playoffs. He's driving play. He's causing turnovers(with the odd one of his own). He's creating offense. There's no one finishing for him. This new thought that Marner should be finishing makes the least amount of sense. He's not a finisher. He never has been. Why when the game gets tighter are people ripping him apart for not finishing?? And maybe that points to Herman's point. Maybe Matthews isn't the right guy for him. But, again, that points to my opinion that Matthew's lack of playoff performance is a way larger concern than Marner's.

Both can be true - Matthews needs to pot them but Marner needs to also be better. How many great passes did Matthews get on his stick from Marner this last playoff run? Likewise how many times has Matthews missed the net? Matthews and Marner wanted to play together so I'm really not going to put this on "he's not set up to succeed" because it implies that's an organizational problem when Matthews and Marner wanted to continuously play together.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932830952561967512

lol

If he's really retiring I'm not sure using Pietrangelo's cap space on Marner is really the best idea. Their only other RHD is Zach Whitecloud. IIRC Theodore often plays the right side but then you still have a 34-year old Brayden McNabb as your #3 behind him and Hanifin. Feels like going after Aaron Ekblad would be a wiser move for them. But it's also Vegas so they probably have 2 or 3 other moves up their sleeves to trade a forward for a defenceman I suppose. Or maybe they somehow find a way to sign both.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I really don't care to re-litigate these debates over and over when they didn't get it done. The fact is they needed to score more goals when they needed it and give up fewer goals when they needed it and they didn't do it and to me that comes down partially to depth in general, especially when you're relying on stars to score and you remove one of them. If you want to say it's not a depth issue, fine, but either provide a counterpoint beyond a "that's how the cookie crumbles" or you're just defending playoff mediocrity in its highest degree.

I did provide a counterpoint. You don’t agree with it and that’s fine. None of us had a crystal ball to know how it would ultimately play out. I’m comfortable in the knowledge they bet on 3 of the most talented players they’ve ever had. I can’t say moving one of them would have lead to better results, I have no idea.

 

[dappleganger]

Look, I don't want to be a Leafs apologist. I thought they lost because of no other reason the group's mentality. Specifically, the team/players were good enough but they choked. That being said, below is something I haven't heard a lot of people comment on:

These were the on-ice cap values (not the cap hit to each team) for each team for the deciding Game 7 in the 2025 playoffs 2nd round:

Florida: $96,275,000

Toronto: $86,454,872

Clearly Toronto is at a disadvantage there. $10m buys a good amount of depth. Sure you can put that on management or the "coincidence" of the situation but it belies the situation that if Toronto had of won the series, it would have been in some terms an upset. In a hard cap league that's quite an anomaly.

Maybe the answer for a team to receive LTIR cap relief the player has to be out for the entire year, not magically come back for the playoffs, or maybe have the LTIR space continue in the playoffs in the same form as it functions during the regular season?

In the NFL, if a player is injured and the team receives insurance proceeds, the amount is credited to their salary cap in the following league year. They get extra money to spend the following season based on insurance payouts, which in a revenue spit CBA situation, kinda makes a lot of sense.