2016 Offseason Review

[herman]

I thought we could use a single thread to voice our pleasure as well as sour grapes about this past offseason before the on-ice results wash all our assumptions away with facts and leave behind only those with winner arguments.

The Leafs made: trades, draft picks, free agent signings, free agent non-signings, PTO signings, management shuffles, hires.

At least one move looks to be the greatest thing to happen to the Leafs since '67. Other moves were head scratchers, and divisive decisions at best because they seemed so different than last year, when it seemed like the Leafs could do no wrong.

Anyway, MLHS is running a new three-parter to finish off the summer which looks quite intriguing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/09/08/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-analytics/

As we move past Labour Day and the hockey world turns its attention to the upcoming World Cup and 2016-2017 season, a set of narratives have come and gone this past summer ? Stammer-geddon, Vesey-gate, and the 2016 draft, to name a few.

In particular, Leafs Nation seems to have shifted its tone slightly. Although most are still quite optimistic about the team?s future, some have also started to call into question the front office?s focus on analytics, its effectiveness at ?salesmanship?, and more.

Reflecting on some of these storylines, there were a few that I thought might be interesting to test out with some objective, data-based analysis in order to see just how accurate they really are.

 

[Kin]

The Great: Winning the Lottery
The Good: Re-signing Rielly and Kadri to team friendly deals
The Ghood: Signing Enroth
The Meh: The rest of the draft
The Bad: The Andersen deal
The Depressingly Familiar: Signing Martin
The Disappointing: Not clearing the logjams

Overall if I had to compare the Leafs off-season to one of the Golden Girls, it would be Dorothy.

 

[Highlander]

My main concern is Lou's impact on the team and how much say he actually has. I was fine with his hire, which I figured was to come in and groom Dubas to step into his chair in two or three years. 
I think Lou has a lot of great qualities and has been a great GM in the past, just not sure some of his input is not out of date?

 

[herman]

I'm stealing your format, Nik, because it's better than the one I was going to use.

The Great: Winning the draft lottery; Actually picking Matthews;
The Very Good: Re-signing Rielly and Kadri to team friendly deals; Not signing Stamkos; 
The Good: Re-signing Carrick, Marincin, Corrado; hiring those guys (Speltz, Charbonneau)
The Ghood: Signing Enroth (lol)
The Hmmms...: Drafting Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, Brooks, Greenway
The Meh: Signing Andersen; Not signing Vesey
The Head-tilters: Drafting Keaton Middleton
The Disappointing: Marlies losing in the playoffs; Not drafting Cam Dineen; Signing Martin, Polak; No Lindholm/Vatanen/Ristolainen on the horizon
The Deserving of a Jackie Chan face response: Andersen/Bernier Trade

 

[mr grieves]

I'm stealing your format, Nik, because it's better than the one I was going to use.

The Great: Winning the draft lottery; Actually picking Matthews;
The Very Good: Re-signing Rielly and Kadri to team friendly deals; Not signing Stamkos; 
The Good: Re-signing Carrick, Marincin, Corrado; hiring those guys (Speltz, Charbonneau)
The Ghood: Signing Enroth (lol)
The Hmmms...: Drafting Korshkov, Grundstrom, Woll, Brooks, Greenway
The Meh: Signing Andersen; Not signing Vesey
The Head-tilters: Drafting Keaton Middleton
The Disappointing: Marlies losing in the playoffs; Not drafting Cam Dineen; Signing Martin, Polak; No Lindholm/Vatanen/Ristolainen on the horizon
The Deserving of a Jackie Chan face response: Andersen/Bernier Trade

Would swap the trade for Andersen with the signing of. Maybe even downgrade the signing to a 'head tilter.' For me, no Stamkos is a 'Meh.' But otherwise, more or less, agreed (less where I forgot the move).

Hard to really complain when the concerns are about what a minor move (Martin, say) might presage and the important, core-related moves (Rielly, Kadri) are good ones.

 

[Kin]

I don't know how not signing Stamkos is much of a positive when it seems like they wanted to.

Although we're counting a lottery win as a positive so it fits.

 

[herman]

Would swap the trade for Andersen with the signing of. Maybe even downgrade the signing to a 'head tilter.' For me, no Stamkos is a 'Meh.' But otherwise, more or less, agreed (less where I forgot the move).

The Andersen trade thing was more about how much the Leafs bent over to the Ducks on sending two picks + eating most of Bernier's salary to get the deal done for an RFA Andersen. Andersen himself I'm okay with having as he fits our timeline for developing our own goalie of the future; 5M is projected to be a fair steal two years down the road (by me).

I don't know how not signing Stamkos is much of a positive when it seems like they wanted to.

I don't know what the Leafs offered, but judging by how quickly Stamkos folded up shop shortly after meeting us (haha, Detroit), I came away thinking the Leafs were in on it kind of the way Anthopolous was in on everything. They have a price in mind, and when it eclipsed that, they were okay with stepping away. Stamkos was/is an objectively great player, but the Leafs rightly determined he was not a critically necessary player and wasted their money elsewhere.

Chasing Martin in a bidding war chafed me way more even though the ultimate result is a nothingish.

 

[Kin]

I don't know what the Leafs offered, but judging by how quickly Stamkos folded up shop shortly after meeting us (haha, Detroit), I came away thinking the Leafs were in on it kind of the way Anthopolous was in on everything. They have a price in mind, and when it eclipsed that, they were okay with stepping away. Stamkos was/is an objectively great player, but the Leafs rightly determined he was not a critically necessary player and wasted their money elsewhere.

Again, I'm not sure where that's a good thing unless the Leafs' offer was essentially a non-serious one which I think the circumstances show probably wasn't the case. If they were offering Stamkos eight figures a year and Stamkos turned them down for Tampa, that's not much wisdom on their part.

Otherwise it seems like you're giving them credit for simply not being willing to meet Stamkos' price no matter what it was.

 

[ZBBM]

The Marlies loss didn't get talked about as much as I thought it would.  They looked like cinches for the title and then kind of disappointed in the final.  The young guns we are hoping for so much didn't really get it done IIRC.  Maybe it doesn't matter in the long run, but it was a more than a little disquieting.

 

[Kin]

I can only speak for myself but I don't really think of the Marlies getting knocked out of the playoffs as being part of the Leafs' off-season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Marlies loss didn't get talked about as much as I thought it would.  They looked like cinches for the title and then kind of disappointed in the final.  The young guns we are hoping for so much didn't really get it done IIRC.  Maybe it doesn't matter in the long run, but it was a more than a little disquieting.

I wonder how it was for guys like Nylander, Hyman, and Soshnikov mentally. Generally speaking the playoffs are the highlight/peak of any players season, but for those guys that was probably replaced by getting to play significant minutes in the NHL. I can't imagine that experiencing that and then going back to the AHL would have been a completely seamless transition.

But regardless, even if some of those players didn't play as well as we hoped I'm still fine pinning the loss squarely on the shoulders of the goalies, who aren't very good.

 

[herman]

I threw the Marlies loss in there because it happened well after the Leafs season finished.  8)

I think teams learn more from losing than winning, and I'm kind of okay with the Marlies getting a taste of what it takes and falling short. They coasted through a good chunk of games riding their speed and skill and it did them not much good in the playoffs when every team they faced tried to kill them. Nylander was pretty ill throughout, and we saw Kapanen take charge after riding some pine.

 

[L K]

The Marlies loss didn't get talked about as much as I thought it would.  They looked like cinches for the title and then kind of disappointed in the final.  The young guns we are hoping for so much didn't really get it done IIRC.  Maybe it doesn't matter in the long run, but it was a more than a little disquieting.

I wonder how it was for guys like Nylander, Hyman, and Soshnikov mentally. Generally speaking the playoffs are the highlight/peak of any players season, but for those guys that was probably replaced by getting to play significant minutes in the NHL. I can't imagine that experiencing that and then going back to the AHL would have been a completely seamless transition.

But regardless, even if some of those players didn't play as well as we hoped I'm still fine pinning the loss squarely on the shoulders of the goalies, who aren't very good.

Yeah, the goaltending was a gong show.  Neither goaltender was good and they were letting in a lot of soft goals.

 

[Bullfrog]

The Andersen trade thing was more about how much the Leafs bent over to the Ducks on sending two picks + eating most of Bernier's salary to get the deal done for an RFA Andersen. Andersen himself I'm okay with having as he fits our timeline for developing our own goalie of the future; 5M is projected to be a fair steal two years down the road (by me).

Not sure if I'm missing something, but why are you bothered by the Leafs paying out Bernier's $2M signing bonus? I can't imagine he'll be retiring and the Leafs getting hit with any cap recapture penalty.

Agreed with you on Martin though. What a terrible deal.

 

[herman]

The Andersen trade thing was more about how much the Leafs bent over to the Ducks on sending two picks + eating most of Bernier's salary to get the deal done for an RFA Andersen. Andersen himself I'm okay with having as he fits our timeline for developing our own goalie of the future; 5M is projected to be a fair steal two years down the road (by me).

Not sure if I'm missing something, but why are you bothered by the Leafs paying out Bernier's $2M signing bonus? I can't imagine he'll be retiring and the Leafs getting hit with any cap recapture penalty.

Agreed with you on Martin though. What a terrible deal.

Paying out Bernier to grease a deal = good. We have money and they don't. We should use that tactic where possible to gain value in a transaction.
Paying out Bernier and getting nothing for it = way less good.

 

[Tigger]

The Ghat: Auston Matthews
The Great: Signing Rielly and Kadri, divesting of Phaneuf
The Gracious Good: Not signing Stamkos for tons
The Good: Carrick and Marincin signings
The Gat: Nylander, Soshnikov, Brown, Hyman
The Ghood: yeah Enroth, Komarov played well
The Gouda: Andersen
The Galleon: Hopeful draft, returns on trades
The Golem: Martin
The Gollum: Kessel cup
The Gallows: Bernier

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I know there have been some musings about the Leafs acting all "Lou" in some of their decision-making this off-season. This article from Maple Leafs Hotstove goes some way towards presenting a case that those reporting the demise of the analytics influence in Toronto, may be at least a little off base.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/09/08/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-analytics/

As we move past Labour Day and the hockey world turns its attention to the upcoming World Cup and 2016-17 season, a set of narratives have come and gone this past summer ? Stammer-geddon, Vesey-gate, and the 2016 draft, to name a few.

In particular, Leafs Nation seems to have shifted its tone slightly. Although most are still quite optimistic about the team?s future, some have also started to call into question the front office?s focus on analytics, its effectiveness at ?salesmanship?, and more.

Reflecting on some of these storylines, there were a few that I thought might be interesting to test out with some objective, data-based analysis in order to see just how accurate they really are. As a result, this article will be the first of a few in what I will call my ?Mythbusters Series?. Let?s get into it.

 

[Kin]

Isn't that the same article herman posted at the beginning of the thread?

 

[herman]

It is an interesting article, which helped me understand our draft strategy a bit better. Lou's Cone of Silence is both a source of frustration and intrigue.

Except they lifted the team publication ban on salary figures and went full bonus for Matthews (duh), which are all decidedly un-Lou.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Isn't that the same article herman posted at the beginning of the thread?

It is, that's my bad.

I read the full thing this morning, it was part of a Leafs news roundup this morning and had yesterday as the publish date.

I didn't want to start a new thread so I dumped it in here because it looked loosely related.

I've been busy and haven't been keeping up with the threads unfortunately.