2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[herman]

https://twitter.com/billius27/status/1011925782153908225
https://twitter.com/billius27/status/1011941848049504256

#GoalBayes

 

[ZBBM]

I'm not sure Reverend Bayes could even have conceived that his theory would be used this way.  Of course, hockey was just getting off the ground back in 18th-century England so who could blame him?

 

[Highlander]

Just thinking if we don't sign Tavares and any other free agent signing I would love to see Nylander move to Centre (where I believe he wants to play) and have Johnsson and Kapi on his wings. That is a line I would like to see. both Johnsson and Kapi especially are good defensively as well.

 

[rdowdall]

Just thinking if we don't sign Tavares and any other free agent signing I would love to see Nylander move to Centre (where I believe he wants to play) and have Johnsson and Kapi on his wings. That is a line I would like to see. both Johnsson and Kapi especially are good defensively as well.

Who do you play with Matthews?  Moving Nylander off his wing leaves a pretty big hole.  I don't like the idea of 82 games with Brown and Hyman there.  I would love if it was Marner, but I think they like the idea of him with Kadri.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Just thinking if we don't sign Tavares and any other free agent signing I would love to see Nylander move to Centre (where I believe he wants to play) and have Johnsson and Kapi on his wings. That is a line I would like to see. both Johnsson and Kapi especially are good defensively as well.

Who do you play with Matthews?  Moving Nylander off his wing leaves a pretty big hole.  I don't like the idea of 82 games with Brown and Hyman there.  I would love if it was Marner, but I think they like the idea of him with Kadri.

If they want to stick with the Marner-Kadri duo:

Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Nylander - Brown (which was a fantastic line in the AHL a couple of years ago)

 

[princedpw]

Just thinking if we don't sign Tavares and any other free agent signing I would love to see Nylander move to Centre (where I believe he wants to play) and have Johnsson and Kapi on his wings. That is a line I would like to see. both Johnsson and Kapi especially are good defensively as well.

Who do you play with Matthews?  Moving Nylander off his wing leaves a pretty big hole.  I don't like the idea of 82 games with Brown and Hyman there.  I would love if it was Marner, but I think they like the idea of him with Kadri.

If they want to stick with the Marner-Kadri duo:

Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Nylander - Brown (which was a fantastic line in the AHL a couple of years ago)

I imagine flipping hyman and johnsson but that works ...

 

[princedpw]

I think Kappy will work well with matthews. He?ll help carry the puck up and dish it off.

 

[Frank E]

Is it realistic to be penciling Kapanen in on first lines?

He had 9 points (7 goals) in 38 games last year, and as we've seen, aside from his great speed, he struggles a bit.

I think he's 4th line material at this point, until he can show that be a lot more consistent.

 

[rdowdall]

I think Kappy will work well with matthews. He?ll help carry the puck up and dish it off.

So lets say the lineup is this:

Hyman, Matthews, Kapanen
Marleau, Kadri, Marner
Johnsson, Nylander, Brown

When you look at that, the Leafs are kind of poised to take a bit of a step back this year.  I don't imagine that Kapanen is going to score at a 60 point pace.  I don't think Johnsson will hit 36 goals.  I think Nylander will outpace Bozak in that role.  Overall though, the production is probably going to be less than what the Leafs had this year. 

Now you can make the argument that those three lines are better defensively, but that is a hard thing to quantify.  Nylander and Johnsson are probably better defensively than JVR and Bozak, but by how much?  How much better defensively is Kapanen on the wing with Matthews than Nylander, and is that drop in production warranted? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Matthews has to play with either Nylander or Marner. No exceptions. I like guys like Kapanen and Johnsson as much as the next person but I watched Sundin play most of his career with middle-wingers and I don't want to watch Matthews do the same.

 

[Kin]

I do think though that this discussion nicely underscores the fact that if the Leafs let JVR walk and effectively replace him with nobody it's going to be pretty hard for this team to be as balanced as they were last year.

 

[rdowdall]

Matthews has to play with either Nylander or Marner. No exceptions. I like guys like Kapanen and Johnsson as much as the next person but I watched Sundin play most of his career with middle-wingers and I don't want to watch Matthews do the same.

I agree totally with this, which is where the comments that the Leafs may not be as deep as people think come from.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Assuming we add nobody and Babcock is forced to use Nylander at centre:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
guy-guy-guy

 

[rdowdall]

Assuming we add nobody and Babcock is forced to use Nylander at centre:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
guy-guy-guy

See at that point do you maybe go with Nylander as your number two and flip him with Kadri?  I still think that third line scores at a lower rate than the JVR-Bozak-Brown trio.  It could be offset a little if Matthews and Marner have breakout years and establish themselves in the upper echelon of the league. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

See at that point do you maybe go with Nylander as your number two and flip him with Kadri?  I still think that third line scores at a lower rate than the JVR-Bozak-Brown trio.  It could be offset a little if Matthews and Marner have breakout years and establish themselves in the upper echelon of the league. 

Well 2C vs. 3C really wouldn't be all that different, it's just that Kadri would be getting the tougher match-ups. You could swap Brown and Kapanen if you wanted.

 

[rdowdall]

See at that point do you maybe go with Nylander as your number two and flip him with Kadri?  I still think that third line scores at a lower rate than the JVR-Bozak-Brown trio.  It could be offset a little if Matthews and Marner have breakout years and establish themselves in the upper echelon of the league. 

Well 2C vs. 3C really wouldn't be all that different, it's just that Kadri would be getting the tougher match-ups. You could swap Brown and Kapanen if you wanted.

Well I thank you sir for giving me a choice. 

 

[mr grieves]

Assuming we add nobody and Babcock is forced to use Nylander at centre:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen
Johnsson-Nylander-Brown
guy-guy-guy

Mine:

Johnsson - Matthews - Hyman
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
[Leivo/Grundstrom/UFA] - Nylander - Kapanen

Trade Brown.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I do think though that this discussion nicely underscores the fact that if the Leafs let JVR walk and effectively replace him with nobody it's going to be pretty hard for this team to be as balanced as they were last year.

I agree.  Bozak scored 43 pts last season.  JvR had 54.  From what I've seen of Johnsson, I feel he could comfortably be a 40+ pt guy, replacing all of Bozak's scoring.  Kapanen, on the other hand, is probably a 30-35 pt guy in a Top 9 role.... so 20-25 points is quite a drop from one of your Top 9 forward spots.

 

[Andy007]

I do think though that this discussion nicely underscores the fact that if the Leafs let JVR walk and effectively replace him with nobody it's going to be pretty hard for this team to be as balanced as they were last year.

I agree.  Bozak scored 43 pts last season.  JvR had 54.  From what I've seen of Johnsson, I feel he could comfortably be a 40+ pt guy, replacing all of Bozak's scoring.  Kapanen, on the other hand, is probably a 30-35 pt guy in a Top 9 role.... so 20-25 points is quite a drop from one of your Top 9 forward spots.

I don't know, personally I think that replacing Bozak with a capable 3rd line center will make a world of difference. A lot of those point totals came either from PP time or at the expense of playing any type of remotely decent defense.

Subbing in some young, defensively-sound players with plenty of speed and offensive potential to that line won't hurt them at all, imo. I actually think it will make them more balanced, particularly if Babcock starts giving the stars more ice and PP time.

 

[ZBBM]

I do think though that this discussion nicely underscores the fact that if the Leafs let JVR walk and effectively replace him with nobody it's going to be pretty hard for this team to be as balanced as they were last year.

I agree.  Bozak scored 43 pts last season.  JvR had 54.  From what I've seen of Johnsson, I feel he could comfortably be a 40+ pt guy, replacing all of Bozak's scoring.  Kapanen, on the other hand, is probably a 30-35 pt guy in a Top 9 role.... so 20-25 points is quite a drop from one of your Top 9 forward spots.

I don't know, personally I think that replacing Bozak with a capable 3rd line center will make a world of difference. A lot of those point totals came either from PP time or at the expense of playing any type of remotely decent defense.

Subbing in some young, defensively-sound players with plenty of speed and offensive potential to that line won't hurt them at all, imo. I actually think it will make them more balanced, particularly if Babcock starts giving the stars more ice and PP time.

I think your last sentence may be the key to this discussion.