2018 Offseason Review

[herman]

It's not complete yet, but it has easily been Lou's best offseason for the Leafs.

Returning
Carrick - 1 year @ 1.3M
Pickard - 1 year @ 800k
Gauthier - 2 years @ 650k
Marincin - 1 year @ 800k
Holl - 2 years @ 675k
Johnsson - 1 year @ 787.5k

Pending
Nylander

Incoming
Par Lindholm - 1 year @ 925k
Igor Ozhiganov - 1 year @ 925k
Josh Jooris - 1 year @ 650k
John Tavares - 7 years @ 11M AAV
Jordan Subban - 1 year @ 650k
Adam Cracknell - 1 year @ 650k
Tyler Ennis - 1 year @ 650k
Eamon McAdam - Trade 1 year @ 925k
Rasmus Sandin - ELC 3 years @ 925k

Outgoing
van Riemsdyk - UFA - Flyers
Bozak - UFA - Blues
Komarov - UFA - Islanders
Polak - UFA - Stars
Martin - Trade - Islanders
Aaltonen - KHL

Completely Forgot About Them
Moore - UFA
Plekanec - UFA - Canadiens

 

[Guilt Trip]

Looks good to me so far. LOU has done an outstanding job lol.

 

[Frank E]

I'm having trouble with the Johnsson contract...how many years until he's a UFA?

EDIT:  I guess I should clarify, he signed his ELC at 20, and he's turning 24...so I'm wondering how many RFA years he has left.

 

[Kin]

I appreciate that Leafs fans have no real reason to not be thrilled with this off-season in light of the big move so to get that out of the way: Hooray for Tavares! He's big and good and handsome and so on.

But that said...wow. It's Tavares and a bunch of pieces who could charitably be called depth. I recognize that the cap issues mean that we shouldn't have expected much more but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

 

[Deebo]

I appreciate that Leafs fans have no real reason to not be thrilled with this off-season in light of the big move so to get that out of the way: Hooray for Tavares! He's big and good and handsome and so on.

But that said...wow. It's Tavares and a bunch of pieces who could charitably be called depth. I recognize that the cap issues mean that we shouldn't have expected much more but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

I'd guess Bozak would be back.

 

[Guilt Trip]

but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

Actually it doesn't because we have him. No need to play the what if game.

 

[herman]

Sans Tavares, I think we would?ve been aiming for a defensive centre for 3-4 years, and continue to pick up Aaltonens and Lindholms until Nylander is finally allowed to centre the overmatch line under the shelter of Matthews/Kadri.

Edit: Leafs Report podcast says Derek Ryan would?ve been the back up plan.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm having trouble with the Johnsson contract...how many years until he's a UFA?

EDIT:  I guess I should clarify, he signed his ELC at 20, and he's turning 24...so I'm wondering how many RFA years he has left.

He'll be eligible for unrestricted free agency when he's over 27 years old as of June 30th of the end of the league year. So that gives him 4 more RFA seasons left.

 

[Frank E]

I'm having trouble with the Johnsson contract...how many years until he's a UFA?

EDIT:  I guess I should clarify, he signed his ELC at 20, and he's turning 24...so I'm wondering how many RFA years he has left.

He'll be eligible for unrestricted free agency when he's over 27 years old as of June 30th of the end of the league year. So that gives him 4 more RFA seasons left.

Thanks Carlton.  I guess I'm wondering what you pay for this guy, given you'd likely like to see what he can do before you commit long term?

$1.5m X 2?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Thanks Carlton.  I guess I'm wondering what you pay for this guy, given you'd likely like to see what he can do before you commit long term?

$1.5m X 2?

On a short-term deal, you might even be able to get him for less than that. The Leafs would really hold all the cards in these negotiations.

Carolina just signed somebody named Lucas Wallmark and that could be a decent comparable to Johnsson. Wallmart is a 22, turning 23 in September, Swedish forward with 2 years of AHL experience. In his first season he scored 46 points in 67 games and in his second season he scored 55 points in 45 games. Johnsson is 23, turning 24 in November who scored 47 points in 75 games in his rookie AHL season and 54 points in 54 games this season. Both are eligible for waivers starting next season. So pretty comparable ages/careers at this point, with Wallmark actually being younger and having an edge in points/game at the AHL level.

Wallmark signed a 2-year deal with a $0.675mil AAV. It's a two-way deal in year 1 and a one-way deal in year 2. I don't know exactly where the Canes plan on playing Wallmark next season, but considering his waiver eligibility I'd imagine he's being pencilled into the NHL roster somewhere to start, just like Johnsson. That's a pretty cheap contract but again like Johnsson Wallmark really doesn't have much negotiating power at this point in his career.

For what it's worth, these are Matt Cane's salary projections for Johnsson based on the term of his deal:

1 year, $0.718mil
2 year, $0.768mil
3 year, $1.3mil
4 year, $1.48mil
5-8 year, $2mil

 

[Frank E]

Thanks Carlton.  I guess I'm wondering what you pay for this guy, given you'd likely like to see what he can do before you commit long term?

$1.5m X 2?

On a short-term deal, you might even be able to get him for less than that. The Leafs would really hold all the cards in these negotiations.

Carolina just signed somebody named Lucas Wallmark and that could be a decent comparable to Johnsson. Wallmart is a 22, turning 23 in September, Swedish forward with 2 years of AHL experience. In his first season he scored 46 points in 67 games and in his second season he scored 55 points in 45 games. Johnsson is 23, turning 24 in November who scored 47 points in 75 games in his rookie AHL season and 54 points in 54 games this season. Both are eligible for waivers starting next season. So pretty comparable ages/careers at this point, with Wallmark actually being younger and having an edge in points/game at the AHL level.

Wallmark signed a 2-year deal with a $0.675mil AAV. It's a two-way deal in year 1 and a one-way deal in year 2. I don't know exactly where the Canes plan on playing Wallmark next season, but considering his waiver eligibility I'd imagine he's being pencilled into the NHL roster somewhere to start, just like Johnsson. That's a pretty cheap contract but again like Johnsson Wallmark really doesn't have much negotiating power at this point in his career.

For what it's worth, these are Matt Cane's salary projections for Johnsson based on the term of his deal:

1 year, $0.718mil
2 year, $0.768mil
3 year, $1.3mil
4 year, $1.48mil
5-8 year, $2mil

Well, I'll be glad to be wrong.  Like I said, I wasn't sure what the comparable was, but yours is a good one. 

 

[ZBBM]

Thanks Carlton.  I guess I'm wondering what you pay for this guy, given you'd likely like to see what he can do before you commit long term?

$1.5m X 2?

On a short-term deal, you might even be able to get him for less than that. The Leafs would really hold all the cards in these negotiations.

Carolina just signed somebody named Lucas Wallmark and that could be a decent comparable to Johnsson. Wallmart is a 22, turning 23 in September, Swedish forward with 2 years of AHL experience.

This made me smile ... that's a typo almost impossible *not* to make. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

Thanks Carlton.  I guess I'm wondering what you pay for this guy, given you'd likely like to see what he can do before you commit long term?

$1.5m X 2?

On a short-term deal, you might even be able to get him for less than that. The Leafs would really hold all the cards in these negotiations.

Carolina just signed somebody named Lucas Wallmark and that could be a decent comparable to Johnsson. Wallmart is a 22, turning 23 in September, Swedish forward with 2 years of AHL experience. In his first season he scored 46 points in 67 games and in his second season he scored 55 points in 45 games. Johnsson is 23, turning 24 in November who scored 47 points in 75 games in his rookie AHL season and 54 points in 54 games this season. Both are eligible for waivers starting next season. So pretty comparable ages/careers at this point, with Wallmark actually being younger and having an edge in points/game at the AHL level.

Wallmark signed a 2-year deal with a $0.675mil AAV. It's a two-way deal in year 1 and a one-way deal in year 2. I don't know exactly where the Canes plan on playing Wallmark next season, but considering his waiver eligibility I'd imagine he's being pencilled into the NHL roster somewhere to start, just like Johnsson. That's a pretty cheap contract but again like Johnsson Wallmark really doesn't have much negotiating power at this point in his career.

For what it's worth, these are Matt Cane's salary projections for Johnsson based on the term of his deal:

1 year, $0.718mil
2 year, $0.768mil
3 year, $1.3mil
4 year, $1.48mil
5-8 year, $2mil

I wonder how much the AHL playoff MVP award would help his cause. If he does sign closer to 1.5 per year, I would point to that Jack Butterfield award as a significant factor considering Walmart's contract.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This made me smile ... that's a typo almost impossible *not* to make. 

Yeah, I'll consider doing it only 1 out of 6 times a win.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wonder how much the AHL playoff MVP award would help his cause. If he does sign closer to 1.5 per year, I would point to that Jack Butterfield award as a significant factor considering Walmart's contract.

Yeah I think that might push him closer to $1mil but over-doubling Wallmark's contract (again if it's only a 2-year deal) seems pretty unlikely. I mean I wouldn't hate that contract but you should be able to get it done for less.

I'd also add that while Wallmark didn't have the playoff success that Johnsson did his points-per-game ratio was the highest in the AHL this past season, so that's a pretty big accomplishment too.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Johnsson accepted his QO, could be a smart move by him to bet on having a big year and cashing in next summer.

Cap hit of $787.5k

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/1017850027207806983

Willy's probably under half of that remaining space. Banked cap room towards the deadline would allow us to swing for some premium options if we so choose, or take on a heavy 1 year cap dump (Spezza 1 yr 7.5M?) for a good future asset.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/1017850027207806983

Willy's probably under half of that remaining space. Banked cap room towards the deadline would allow us to swing for some premium options if we so choose, or take on a heavy 1 year cap dump (Spezza 1 yr 7.5M?) for a good future asset.

We are not in a position to take on cap dumps.  I wish people would stop suggesting it.  It pushes us into bonus overages and that will be a problem next year.

 

[herman]

We are not in a position to take on cap dumps.  I wish people would stop suggesting it.  It pushes us into bonus overages and that will be a problem next year.

I dunno man, that's a lot of room. Taking a mid-season cap dump (that expires at the end of this year) for an extra asset while leaving bonus cushion room is not impossible. Let's say Dallas is pretty close at the beginning of January and has a bead on a younger centre (e.g. Duchene) but wants to clear some today space. I'll take the remainder of Spezza's deal + fancy pick or prospect. Cap room gets banked over the course of the season.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I appreciate that Leafs fans have no real reason to not be thrilled with this off-season in light of the big move so to get that out of the way: Hooray for Tavares! He's big and good and handsome and so on.

But that said...wow. It's Tavares and a bunch of pieces who could charitably be called depth. I recognize that the cap issues mean that we shouldn't have expected much more but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

I can't help but agree. Unless Dubas was the difference between Tavares signing here and not, I'd call the offseason fall slightly to the side of underwhelming, to this point.