Better return for Kessel at the trade deadline

[Supernova]

I, and a few others, predicted that Kessel will be at the Leafs camp in September. I still believe that to be the case. A lot of people saying there is a deal in place with the Pens and the only reason it is not posted as true yet is because the Pens are waiting for the Leafs to have to pay out Kessels 4 mil bonus.

I think that's a load of crap.

I think the best return for Kessel will be at the deadline. The reasons are that Kessel will have over half a season under Babcock to bring his value back up. For instance, Kessel becomes better defensively and has 25 plus goals by the deadline. His value will be sky high.

Another reason its best to deal him at the deadline is that there is always a team willing to overpay big time at the deadline. Kessels value should be huge.

As much as Leaf fans like to undervalue and whine about a guy like Kessel, the other 29 teams disagree. At the deadline, he would be the hottest commodity.

I can see 2 firsts (2016 and 2017) and 2 good prospects. I am not sure that the Leafs will be looking for a roster player. I think we have enough to give a young guy a chance to step in, or at least have a few auditions for his spot.

A guy like Kessel is going to be the answer for a bubble team looking to go a long way. Kessel also has to rename his list of 8 teams by the deadline and 2 of those teams have to be different according to his LNT claus. But I don't think it would be too hard to get him to waive for almost anyone if we are out of a playoff spot by then.

The only remaining unknown is if the Leafs are actually in the playoff race (funnier things have happened, especially with Babcock driving the rig), then the Leafs keep Kessel and core, and go for it.

All that said, do you think it just makes more sense to keep him until the deadline?

 

[Kin]

I think there are two central flaws to the idea here. Well, three really, but I've gone over the problems with assuming Kessel will not only improve but fundamentally alter his game under Babcock elsewhere.

So the two big ones I see are:

1) Teams do overpay at the deadline, but not for big deal players on long term contracts. Trades at the deadline tend to be about teams with limited flexibility adding short term pieces.

We saw the difficulty with trying to move Phaneuf at the deadline. Because the kinds of good teams who would want to add pieces at the deadline tend to use their cap space, you're limiting trading partners pretty severely. Players with big cap hits and long terms tend to get moved in the off-season because absorbing that sort of contract will require work on the part of most teams.

2) The teams who are likely to make deadline additions are good teams and a good team tends to be unable to offer high value picks or prospects.

Look at this year's draft. Three picks got traded at the deadline. Picks #24, 29 and 30. Pick #16 got dealt in-season but 2 full months before the deadline. If you're dealing only with teams who think they're poised to make a deep stanley cup run, you're probably dealing with teams who haven't had high draft picks in recent years and as a result don't have top flight prospects either.

Imagine the three teams at the deadline that were most interested in Kessel were LA, Montreal and NYR. Well, here's those three teams highest draft choices in the last five drafts:

LA - 43, 29, 37, 30, 49
Montreal - 26, 26, 25, 3, 17
NYR - 41, 59, 65, 28, 15

So between those three teams they have made a grand total of 2 picks in the top half of the first round over the last five drafts and both of those picks(Galchenyuk and JT Miller) are roster players. So really they have pretty low value prospects to offer.

Now, there might be other teams interested. Teams who have made surprising gains and have valuable pieces to trade but the Leafs won't get to choose who's interested in Kessel and I think that teams like that will be pretty wary of using cap space they should be saving to extend their own young players on someone like Kessel at the deadline. Again, it's a big trade. It's a real commitment for a team to make. Prudent teams, well managed teams, won't want to make that sort of decision under the pressure of a deadline.

Which, again, takes us back to 1. Trades like this...they just don't happen at the deadline.

 

[Bullfrog]

I will address the idea that Kessel will significantly improve because it's a major premise of his argument.

The impact that Babcock will have on improving Kessel's game is way overblown. Kessel will be 28 years old when the season starts; his skills and playing style are essentially set. There may be room for some improvement -- as there is with all players that learn with experience -- but it's not going to change his value.

I'm confident that most GMs will see last season for what it was: a bad season for both the team and the player. On the flip side, Kessel may not be the 40-50 goal scorer that many of us hope, but 30-40 is still good.

I don't see much additional value in waiting for the deadline because Kessel is a long-term commitment.

 

[rdowdall]

2) The teams who are likely to make deadline additions are good teams and a good team tends to be unable to offer high value picks or prospects.

Look at this year's draft. Three picks got traded at the deadline. Picks #24, 29 and 30. Pick #16 got dealt in-season but 2 full months before the deadline. If you're dealing only with teams who think they're poised to make a deep stanley cup run, you're probably dealing with teams who haven't had high draft picks in recent years and as a result don't have top flight prospects either.

Imagine the three teams at the deadline that were most interested in Kessel were LA, Montreal and NYR. Well, here's those three teams highest draft choices in the last five drafts:

LA - 43, 29, 37, 30, 49
Montreal - 26, 26, 25, 3, 17
NYR - 41, 59, 65, 28, 15

So between those three teams they have made a grand total of 2 picks in the top half of the first round over the last five drafts and both of those picks(Galchenyuk and JT Miller) are roster players. So really they have pretty low value prospects to offer.

Now, there might be other teams interested. Teams who have made surprising gains and have valuable pieces to trade but the Leafs won't get to choose who's interested in Kessel and I think that teams like that will be pretty wary of using cap space they should be saving to extend their own young players on someone like Kessel at the deadline. Again, it's a big trade. It's a real commitment for a team to make. Prudent teams, well managed teams, won't want to make that sort of decision under the pressure of a deadline.

Which, again, takes us back to 1. Trades like this...they just don't happen at the deadline.

The second point is why you hope teams on the rise, teams like Winnipeg or Florida, would be interested in Kessel.  They have lots of young assets, but maybe they hope to take the next step by adding a known quantity.  The return from teams like Detroit, or Pittsburgh won't be overwhelming. 

However, the Leafs might not need to get core pieces in the deal for Kessel.  If they are rebuilding, then the fact that they are going to be bad should give them the ability to draft elite talent at the top of the draft.  The trading of the likes of Kessel and Phanuef is to ensure that they are bad.  The assets that they receive in those deals can be used to supplement the core that they draft with good players, which makes for a strong team.

 

[Kin]

The second point is why you hope teams on the rise, teams like Winnipeg or Florida, would be interested in Kessel.  They have lots of young assets, but maybe they hope to take the next step by adding a known quantity.  The return from teams like Detroit, or Pittsburgh won't be overwhelming.

Both of those teams, though, are teams that are probably going to have internal budgets so that's where the whole thing of them not wanting to spend their limited resources, which they'll need to extend those good young roster players, on someone like Kessel.

But I agree with the second half of your post. Trading Kessel is a means unto itself.