Bozak: Number one centre?

[Champ Kind]

File this under "Captain of the Obvious", but Tyler Bozak is currently scoring on a 75 point pace, prorated of course.

Colour me impressed.  The cynics among us might say that playing with JVR and Kessel has that effect on people.  But, I think it's pretty hard to argue that the guy is doing a pretty good impression of a darn good hockey player.

Mod edit: Editorial title change

 

[Kin]

File this under "Captain of the Obvious", but Tyler Bozak is currently scoring on a 75 point pace, prorated of course.

Colour me impressed.  The cynics among us might say that playing with JVR and Kessel has that effect on people.  But, I think it's pretty hard to argue that the guy is doing a pretty good impression of a darn good hockey player.

Well, I've always sort of thought of it as a Brendan Morrison sort of situation. I don't think anyone would dispute that most of Morrison's points came because of who his linemates were in Vancouver but I think some people take that a faulty step and then assume that anyone could have been Brendan Morrison with those same linemates.

Bozak fits in well with that line and compliments their play. That's a valuable thing to find and lock down.

 

[Champ Kind]

File this under "Captain of the Obvious", but Tyler Bozak is currently scoring on a 75 point pace, prorated of course.

Colour me impressed.  The cynics among us might say that playing with JVR and Kessel has that effect on people.  But, I think it's pretty hard to argue that the guy is doing a pretty good impression of a darn good hockey player.

Well, I've always sort of thought of it as a Brendan Morrison sort of situation. I don't think anyone would dispute that most of Morrison's points came because of who his linemates were in Vancouver but I think some people take that a faulty step and then assume that anyone could have been Brendan Morrison with those same linemates.

Bozak fits in well with that line and compliments their play. That's a valuable thing to find and lock down.

Bang on comparison. 

I increasingly think of Bozak as the flour in the first line gravy.  JVR and Kessel are the roast's drippings, but Bozak holds the whole delicious liquid together.

.....um, after reading that, I better stop thinking of Bozak like that.  Would dough of the pizza sound better?

 

[Jalili]

Big fan of his play this season as well as his contract.

At 27 and as someone you'd say was a late bloomer, I think Bozak will be a really useful piece for the team moving forward.

 

[Deebo]

Well, I've always sort of thought of it as a Brendan Morrison sort of situation.

That's the name I thought of too.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

He's having a very good year. 

Still think he's massively over-rated defensively, and it's highly likely he won't shoot 21% again as he is right now (although he's always been above avg SH% wise, so ~16ish%) and he's seen his first assists/60 mins take a HUGE jump this season (0.735, 0.373, 0.565, 0.354 to 1.372/60 this season).  That's a massive leap in one season so it's hard to expect that to continue going forward.

But he's earning the contract as it stands and isn't an issue for the team right now.  He's been quite good this year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

File this under "Captain of the Obvious", but Tyler Bozak is currently scoring on a 75 point pace, prorated of course.

Colour me impressed.  The cynics among us might say that playing with JVR and Kessel has that effect on people.  But, I think it's pretty hard to argue that the guy is doing a pretty good impression of a darn good hockey player.

Well, I've always sort of thought of it as a Brendan Morrison sort of situation. I don't think anyone would dispute that most of Morrison's points came because of who his linemates were in Vancouver but I think some people take that a faulty step and then assume that anyone could have been Brendan Morrison with those same linemates.

Bozak fits in well with that line and compliments their play. That's a valuable thing to find and lock down.

But Kessel has put up points/goals at pretty much the same rate no matter who his C has been.

 

[Rebel_1812]

I have to admit that Bozak is playing better then I thought he would.  I hope he keeps it up.  As an interesting comparison here is Grabbo's numbers GP-50 G-12 Assists-21 Pts-33 +\- 4.
  and here are Bozak's numbers  GP-40 G-14 Assists-23 Pts-37 +\- 9.
Since they could only keep one of them, it looks like Bozak was the better choice.  Should also be mentioned that Grabbo's team has 68 pts and is currently out of a playoff spot.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I have to admit that Bozak is playing better then I thought he would.  I hope he keeps it up.  As an interesting comparison here is Grabbo's numbers GP-50 G-12 Assists-21 Pts-33 +\- 4.
  and here are Bozak's numbers  GP-40 G-14 Assists-23 Pts-37 +\- 9.
Since they could only keep one of them, it looks like Bozak was the better choice.  Should also be mentioned that Grabbo's team has 68 pts and is currently out of a playoff spot.

Grabovski's also playing with two of either Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr or Jason Chimera.  Not exactly Kessel/JVR.  The team is scoring 56% of the goals when he's on the ice and getting 51% of the shot attempts.  He's been in and out of the lineup recently with injuries, but he's having a very solid season if you bother to put it into context.

 

[Rebel_1812]

I have to admit that Bozak is playing better then I thought he would.  I hope he keeps it up.  As an interesting comparison here is Grabbo's numbers GP-50 G-12 Assists-21 Pts-33 +\- 4.
  and here are Bozak's numbers  GP-40 G-14 Assists-23 Pts-37 +\- 9.
Since they could only keep one of them, it looks like Bozak was the better choice.  Should also be mentioned that Grabbo's team has 68 pts and is currently out of a playoff spot.

Grabovski's also playing with two of either Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr or Jason Chimera.  Not exactly Kessel/JVR.  The team is scoring 56% of the goals when he's on the ice and getting 51% of the shot attempts.  He's been in and out of the lineup recently with injuries, but he's having a very solid season if you bother to put it into context.

Thats another thing in bozak's favor.  He is not prone to injury. 

 

[Leaflifer]

Bozak has won me over as well this season. He seemed a half step behind the play a lot last year, although PK is hard to keep up with. He seems like he has more space and time this year. I'm not sure if that's a result of PK getting more attention, but whatever the reason he's making plays and in the right spot to make them most of the time.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I have to admit that Bozak is playing better then I thought he would.  I hope he keeps it up.  As an interesting comparison here is Grabbo's numbers GP-50 G-12 Assists-21 Pts-33 +\- 4.
  and here are Bozak's numbers  GP-40 G-14 Assists-23 Pts-37 +\- 9.
Since they could only keep one of them, it looks like Bozak was the better choice.  Should also be mentioned that Grabbo's team has 68 pts and is currently out of a playoff spot.

Grabovski's also playing with two of either Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr or Jason Chimera.  Not exactly Kessel/JVR.  The team is scoring 56% of the goals when he's on the ice and getting 51% of the shot attempts.  He's been in and out of the lineup recently with injuries, but he's having a very solid season if you bother to put it into context.

Thats another thing in bozak's favor.  He is not prone to injury.

Grabovski's played more games than Bozak this season.

I don't want to hijack a Bozak thread anymore though.

 

[proteus2000]

When Bozak wasn't able to play game 7 last year, it was a huge blow, as he was the only centre that I felt could compete against the strong core of Bruin centres...that is when I knew he actually had value.

His contract is great for what he brings, and is there another player on the team that you would want on a breakaway in the past 3 years?

 

[moon111]

I think the best thing about Bozak is there are such terrible apparent holes in the roster elsewhere, nobody focuses on the #1 center spot anymore.  He's working okay, that's allot more then can be said for allot of other positions.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Bozak has won me over as well this season. He seemed a half step behind the play a lot last year, although PK is hard to keep up with. He seems like he has more space and time this year. I'm not sure if that's a result of PK getting more attention, but whatever the reason he's making plays and in the right spot to make them most of the time.

Me too.  I am comfortable with him as the Leafs 1C.

He has been skating very well, initiates going into the dirty areas but most of all has FANTASTIC hockey IQ.  The way he anticipates plays and gets in the right spot.

40gp 14g 23a 37pts +9 - all for $4.2 MIL for 5 years. Nice.

 

[Kin]

But Kessel has put up points/goals at pretty much the same rate no matter who his C has been.

Sure. Sort of like how Crosby has produced at a pretty consistent rate over the course of his career regardless of who his wingers were while his wingers themselves have varied wildly in terms of what they've been able to produce while on Crosby's line.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But Kessel has put up points/goals at pretty much the same rate no matter who his C has been.

Sure. Sort of like how Crosby has produced at a pretty consistent rate over the course of his career regardless of who his wingers were while his wingers themselves have varied wildly in terms of what they've been able to produce while on Crosby's line.

I'm not super familiar with them, what are the wild variations in production by Crosby's wingers?

 

[Kin]

I'm not super familiar with them, what are the wild variations in production by Crosby's wingers?

Crosby's played entire seasons of putting up 100+ points with no wingers on the team even scoring 50 points. He's also had seasons of 100+ points with guys scoring 60-70 on his wing. 

The next goal Chris Kunitz scores will mark the first time Crosby's had a winger score 30 goals in a season, yet Crosby is on pace for 109 points, the same total he did in the year where there weren't any 50 point wingers on his team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But they have been top 7 at least in scoring every season Crosby has been healthy.  So if we're talking about it being necessary to maximize the team's offensive production it hasn't seemed to matter who is playing with Crosby - the goals have still come regardless.

I'd say that's because of how Crosby makes everyone better.  In 2009-10 for instance, Crosby had 109 points and played mostly with Guerin/Kunitz (but Kunitz was injured part of the year) but at even strength Crosby put up more points with Letang/Goligoski than any of his wingers.

Kunitz getting 30 is really just a function of him being the first winger to play so much in a season with Crosby.  Of Crosby's ~979 5 on 5 minutes this season, Kunitz has played 808 of them.

From 2008-2013 these are the 5 forwards Crosby has played the most with, and the Penguins goals per 20:00 with them on the ice together:

Kunitz: 1.45
Dupuis: 1.36
Malkin: 1.76
Guerin: 1.23
Satan: 1.1

The numbers are similar with the D - when Crosby and one of Letang, Orpik, Goligoski, Martin, Gonchar are on the ice the GF/20 are all 1.3 or higher.

If the original point was that not just anyone could be Brendan Morrison, or in this case, Chris Kunitz, shouldn't there be some very clear benefit to the Penguins overall to having them together?  A significant uptick in the team's offensive production when they play together?

I'm not seeing a significant difference when it is Kunitz/Crosby, other than in Kunitz' individual production.  The Pens seem to put up a ton of goals regardless of who Crosby is on the ice with - so why does it matter WHO it is with, other than their individual stats?

No, not everyone can score with Kunitz' SH%, just like not everyone can with Bozak's, but in both cases the stats tend to show that you could put anyone in Kunitz' or Bozak's position and the goals would still come - maybe not necessarily from whoever you put in that position, but the net effect for the team should still be similar.

 

[Kin]

But they have been top 7 at least in scoring every season Crosby has been healthy.  So if we're talking about it being necessary to maximize the team's offensive production it hasn't seemed to matter who is playing with Crosby - the goals have still come regardless.

Well, I think the pretty readily apparent logical problem with your argument here is assuming that there's no difference in "maximizing the team's offensive production" between finishing 7th in goals for and finishing 1st. Crosby and Malkin are good enough that, yes, you can put them with nobodies and their individual talents will lead to a lot of goals being scored. That doesn't mean that there aren't benefits to having the right guys with him. Look at your own list. The difference between the high and the low end is two thirds of a goal per game. That's a very significant difference. The difference between Kunitz and Satan, as expressed on that list, works out to roughly 30 goals a year, which, coincidentally enough would be the difference between finishing first in goals for as they did in 2011-2012 and finishing 7th that same year.

So the idea that it's not a significant difference in production doesn't really seem to wash. Yes, whoever Crosby is paired with will lead to good production but I assume that "good" isn't what anyone is aiming for.