skrackle said:
The run and gun worked the best for the Leafs this year because of good team speed and good finishers in Kessel and Lupul. The Leafs were unable to sustain success with this style because of inconsistent goaltending, and because teams increasingly played a trap game against them.
Burke often speaks of winning in the playoffs by being able to beat run and gun teams, defensive teams, cycling teams etc. The current Leafs are too one dimensional and lack the line up and experience to adjust their game on the fly.
The Leafs are very young, though. They are going to learn other approaches under Carlyle. I hope that they can keep the speed element as a weapon, but also develop a defensive game. If Burke can improve the roster with more size and toughness as well as better goaltending, the Leafs will eventually become a consistent team against all types of opponents.
Good post. I agree.
I looked at non special teams goals the 22 games before last night (the start of their losing streak) and the 22 games before that. I counted short handed and shootout goals in the figures below because there was no need to look more closely at even strength goals for vs even strength goals against:
So close to even strength goals for vs even strength goals against:
Most recent 22 games: 36 goals for 70 goals against
Prior 22 games: 57 goals for 47 goals against
The PP was around 17.x% in both sets of 22 games and the PK 81.5% recently vs 83.5% in the prior 22 games (not a lot of difference on the PK). In other words, during their collapse, they got clobbered at even strength while executing respectably on special teams.
Statistically, to me, that supports much of what you said in your first paragraph. We saw some telling signs in the early games this season against the Bruins & the Panthers that if teams clogged the neutral zone to squash a quick counter attack by the Leafs and attacked the Leafs D down low, the Leafs were close to helpless to combat that. We saw the Sens execute that in some games and the rest of the league caught on.
More or less, I think the style of play they attempted suited the collective skills this group had. It relied on getting goaltending version Reimer '10-11 and they obviously didn't get that. And I think their collection of dmen are collectively too inexperienced, not well rounded enough or simply not good enough. I think Gardiner, Schenn & Franson will improve with experience.
The other notable thing when I looked at those stats was the stretch where they didn't allow a PK goal against. During that time, they averaged 1.6 PKs per game - a dramatic drop from the 4 Pks per game in the stretch of games before that.
So Wilson deserves some credit for getting them to play more disciplined to avoid the PK/goaltending weakness. I still feel this was Wilson best coaching season in Toronto. I was never a giant fan of his but he really tried a bunch of stuff this season and got some results. Most said they needed good goaltending to make the playoffs this season and they simply didn't get it.
Carlyle isn't stupid. He knows what he's got in talent. There's often a performance lull when there's a coaching change during midseason.
I'm encouraged that he isn't just working on the defensive zone - he's working on all the turnovers in the offensive zone that are contributing to their defensive problems. Even waterbugs can be better defensively in that way - even if they can't win many puck battles. But while they make the transition to improve that, to answer the top post, the offence will suffer and may never be quite as productive offensively but the hope is that they'll allow fewer goals than the reduction in scoring.
This summer, hopefully, the can make some personnel changes to improve their toughness, winning puck battles, goaltending & their D.
