ESPN's Top-100 Forwards

[CarltonTheBear]

ESPN recently had their "experts" rank the top forwards in the game right now. Obviously, hilarity ensued.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/page/2013_nhlrank_forwards/

The reigning Hart trophy winner was ranked 7th. The reigning Art Ross trophy winner and 2nd runner-up for the Ted Lindsay award was ranked 13th. Logan "I didn't even lead my team in scoring" Couture is apparently the 13th best forward in the league. Parise and Hossa over Kessel? Dustin Brown and Patrick Sharp over Eric Staal and Taylor Hall?

They seemed to really value defence and toughness here, which I suppose is fine but I'm still surprised that almost every participant felt that way. I mean, I like Patrice Bergeron but there's no way I take him over Kane or Giroux when starting a team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

No, the best is that they ranked Ilya Kovalchuk in a best of NHL forwards - and ranked him 64th (the same as Clarkson!).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

No, the best is that they ranked Ilya Kovalchuk in a best of NHL forwards - and ranked him 64th (the same as Clarkson!).

I saw that, but I would guess that the reason for that is some experts didn't include him in their rankings while the ones that did had him top-20.

 

[Kin]

I mean, I like Patrice Bergeron but there's no way I take him over Kane or Giroux when starting a team.

I think it's a legitimate debate though that's a little obscured by the way Boston uses him. What would you rather have, a 70-75 point centre(which Bergeron has proven himself to be when he gets the ice time of a true #1) with Selke quality defense and face-off skills or the guys you mention who are a little less adept in that area but who'll score 10-15 more points a year? I might lean towards Giroux too because of his age but it's not an open and shut case.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I mean, I like Patrice Bergeron but there's no way I take him over Kane or Giroux when starting a team.

I think it's a legitimate debate though that's a little obscured by the way Boston uses him. What would you rather have, a 70-75 point centre(which Bergeron has proven himself to be when he gets the ice time of a true #1) with Selke quality defense and face-off skills or the guys you mention who are a little less adept in that area but who'll score 10-15 more points a year? I might lean towards Giroux too because of his age but it's not an open and shut case.

Bergeron hasn't scored 70 points for 5 seasons now. And the two years he did he was still technically Boston's 2nd line centre behind Thornton one year and Savard the other. I guess he likely wasn't seeing the zone starts or competition that he is now, but I wouldn't really be comfortable saying that he's guaranteed that regain that scoring touch if given the chance. He wouldn't be the first really good player to have his best offensive seasons prior to reaching his "peak".

And I get what I'm about to say next is entirely subjective, but I feel that Kane and Giroux are the types of player who can single-handily take over a game and dominate. Maybe it's just because Bergeron's game is quieter, but I don't see him like that. To put it another way, when Boston won their Cup it wasn't Bergeron winning the Conn Smyth. But Kane won it for Chicago. That to me is the difference.

 

[Corn Flake]

Brad Marchand #36.

*closes browser window, falls down laughing*

 

[Kin]

Bergeron hasn't scored 70 points for 5 seasons now. And the two years he did he was still technically Boston's 2nd line centre behind Thornton one year and Savard the other.

I don't know what you mean by technically but in 05-06 when he scored 73 points he was only Thornton's teammate for 23 games and in 06-07 where he scored 70 points he led all of Boston's forwards in TOI/G so I don't really see him as being the #2 in either year there.

I guess he likely wasn't seeing the zone starts or competition that he is now, but I wouldn't really be comfortable saying that he's guaranteed that regain that scoring touch if given the chance. He wouldn't be the first really good player to have his best offensive seasons prior to reaching his "peak".

Well, he scored at a 63 point pace this year and that's with A) significant defensive work and B) essentially second line PP time. So we're not talking about a big gap to make up.

 

[Bender]

I think Bergeron is a great all around player but I'd pick Giroux if I had to choose.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know what you mean by technically but in 05-06 when he scored 73 points he was only Thornton's teammate for 23 games and in 06-07 where he scored 70 points he led all of Boston's forwards in TOI/G so I don't really see him as being the #2 in either year there.

My bad on 05/06, I sorted the players through TOI/G and Thornton was number 1 but didn't realize that was the year he was traded. As for 06/07, Bergeron edged out Savard in TOI/G by about 30 seconds but that's only because Bergeron played on the PK while Savard didn't. I'm pretty sure Savard and his 96 points was the teams top centre that year.

Well, he scored at a 63 point pace this year and that's with A) significant defensive work and B) essentially second line PP time. So we're not talking about a big gap to make up.

Bergeron was 3rd on the Bruins this season in PP TOI/G, and only 1 second behind Krejci and Seguin. So he did receive ample powerplay time.

 

[Kin]

My bad on 05/06, I sorted the players through TOI/G and Thornton was number 1 but didn't realize that was the year he was traded. As for 06/07, Bergeron edged out Savard in TOI/G by about 30 seconds but that's only because Bergeron played on the PK while Savard didn't. I'm pretty sure Savard and his 96 points was the teams top centre that year.

But isn't that along the lines of saying that Kadri would have been the Leafs' #1 centre last year? Admittedly the ice-time is closer there but, regardless, I think that the point stands where if Bergeron is scoring those points while getting significant SH time he's probably not being sheltered or only being used against the other team's scrubs then it actually lends weight to his ability to score those points being used as a more traditional #1.

Bergeron was 3rd on the Bruins this season in PP TOI/G, and only 1 second behind Krejci and Seguin. So he did receive ample powerplay time.

Yeah, but in the context of the purely offensive guys you're talking about it's still a big drop-off. Giroux, for instance, got almost double the PP time that Bergeron did(3:40 to 2:10) and if you compare it to the Leafs, it's a number that's closer to Kadri and Grabovski than it is Bozak and Kessel.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

But isn't that along the lines of saying that Kadri would have been the Leafs' #1 centre last year? Admittedly the ice-time is closer there but, regardless, I think that the point stands where if Bergeron is scoring those points while getting significant SH time he's probably not being sheltered or only being used against the other team's scrubs then it actually lends weight to his ability to score those points being used as a more traditional #1.

Kadri had almost 20 more points than Bozak last season, not the other way around.  I just have a hard time understanding how Marc "9th in league scoring" was anything but Boston's #1 centre that season.

And this may be a coincidence, but Bergeron had his best offensive seasons in the years Boston finished bottom-10 in the league standings. I do have to wonder a little bit if there wasn't a Matt Stajan-effect going on there where a good player on a bad team puts up more points than he would on a playoff team. It's hard to say because I obviously don't recall the style Boston played back then. But one of my other worries about Bergeron (and this goes back to my Kane/Conn Smyth talk), is that I wonder if he can be the best player on a good team. With Boston he's always been 3rd at best behind Chara and Thomas/Rask. 

Also, on a completely random note, I can't believe Joe Sakic scored 100 points that season, not too long ago. Man did he go out on top.

 

[Kin]

Kadri had almost 20 more points than Bozak last season, not the other way around.  I just have a hard time understanding how Marc "9th in league scoring" was anything but Boston's #1 centre that season.

Well, ignoring the semantics of it for a second, isn't that the perfect encapsulation of the initial question you asked? I mean, who do you think was more valuable to the Bruins that year? Savard scoring 96 points but not really providing a ton else or Bergeron scoring 70 while eating up a ton of time on the PK? Like I said, I could lean either way I just think it's a legitimate question.

And this may be a coincidence, but Bergeron had his best offensive seasons in the years Boston finished bottom-10 in the league standings. I do have to wonder a little bit if there wasn't a Matt Stajan-effect going on there where a good player on a bad team puts up more points than he would on a playoff team.Thomas/Rask. 

Yeah, I hear you, but I suppose it's pretty hard for me to look at it that way when, again, he scored at a 63 point pace while getting 2 minutes of PP time a night(and I have no way of checking this but it very well might have actually been second line PP duty, as he may not have been matched with Chara. I remember the Bruins favouring the Krejci line in the playoffs but that might just have been how effective they were) and not think that if he got almost four minutes the way a guy ordinarily might in a top line situation that he couldn't pick that up by the 7-10 points necessary for him to be a consistent 70 point guy. I mean, like you said, if we lend weight to the zone start thing it's a pretty remarkable offensive season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, ignoring the semantics of it for a second, isn't that the perfect encapsulation of the initial question you asked? I mean, who do you think was more valuable to the Bruins that year? Savard scoring 96 points but not really providing a ton else or Bergeron scoring 70 while eating up a ton of time on the PK? Like I said, I could lean either way I just think it's a legitimate question.

Gotcha. So to bring a Leafs POV to things, Kadri would be like Savard and Bozak Bergeron, right? Kadri scored more points but Bozak had more of a role outside of that. Things get a little murky since the ice-time/linemates for the comparables don't line-up, but still in both cases I take the better scorer. I just that it's easier to make up for the lack of defence in the scorer than it is to make up for the lack of offence in the more defensive player. Hope that makes sense.

I also admit that Bergeron is a very, very unique player here so I suppose it's understandable that there would be a debate as to where he falls. You either have top defensive players like Toews, Datsyuk, or Zetterberg who can be Selkle candidates while still scoring 80-90 points a season, or you have guys like Kesler or Backes who provide the same defence but score less. If I had to pick I'd place him in hat second group but he really is somewhere in between by himself.

Yeah, I hear you, but I suppose it's pretty hard for me to look at it that way when, again, he scored at a 63 point pace while getting 2 minutes of PP time a night(and I have no way of checking this but it very well might have actually been second line PP duty, as he may not have been matched with Chara. I remember the Bruins favouring the Krejci line in the playoffs but that might just have been how effective they were) and not think that if he got almost four minutes the way a guy ordinarily might in a top line situation that he couldn't pick that up by the 7-10 points necessary for him to be a consistent 70 point guy. I mean, like you said, if we lend weight to the zone start thing it's a pretty remarkable offensive season.

My memory might be off, but I'm pretty sure Boston used Bergeron on the point for powerplays, so he would have bee on at the same time as Chara and Krejci.

 

[Kin]

Gotcha. So to bring a Leafs POV to things, Kadri would be like Savard and Bozak Bergeron, right? Kadri scored more points but Bozak had more of a role outside of that. Things get a little murky since the ice-time/linemates for the comparables don't line-up, but still in both cases I take the better scorer. I just that it's easier to make up for the lack of defence in the scorer than it is to make up for the lack of offence in the more defensive player. Hope that makes sense.

Yeah, the only reason Kadri vs. Bozak doesn't work or at least where it really doesn't fit, is that I'm saying that if Bergeron were strictly an offensive player he'd be a pretty good offensive player in his own right. So, for me, it's like one player with A+ offense and C defense(at least in Kane's case) vs. another with B+ offense and A+ defense.

I also admit that Bergeron is a very, very unique player here so I suppose it's understandable that there would be a debate as to where he falls. You either have top defensive players like Toews, Datsyuk, or Zetterberg who can be Selkle candidates while still scoring 80-90 points a season, or you have guys like Kesler or Backes who provide the same defence but score less. If I had to pick I'd place him in hat second group but he really is somewhere in between by himself.

Agreed. I think he's very legitimately behind Toews and Datsyuk in those ESPN rankings.

My memory might be off, but I'm pretty sure Boston used Bergeron on the point for powerplays, so he would have bee on at the same time as Chara and Krejci.

Which creates its own set of circumstances, then, if he's on the point but isn't the main shot from the point.

 

[Jalili]

It's not a very good list.

Dustin Brown at 24 is pretty bad.

And Bergeron, who I consider to be underrated in some circles as he still consistently does not get credit for being a "1st line forward", should not be at #8. One of my favourite players though.

 

[princedpw]

A little-known but astounding fact on Bergeron: with him and Chara together on the ice at even strength last year, opponents scored a total 1 (ONE) goal in 283 minutes.  And he wasnt playing against the scrubs.  A goal prevented is as important as a goal scored, but it is harder to measure how many goals a player prevents... I'd take Bergeron over Kane.