Estrada close to extension
- Thread starter Deebo
- Start date
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Deebo said:
Not that he wasn't already highly regarded, but it feels like those playoffs are getting him a significant bump.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
One take: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-isnt-just-a-one-year-fluke/
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Nik the Trik said:
This article goes into why FIP might not be the most accurate way to gauge Estrada: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/
L K
Active member
Hard to complain about it. There are some stats that suggest regression but with a reasonable deal it's hard to argue walking away from Estrada in the short term. Two years and a reasonable contract for a guy who had an extremely good year and was reliable in the postseason.
The Jays are creeping closer to that cap limit though.
Starters - Dickey + Estrada - 25M
Relievers - None under contract
Position - Bautista + Encarnacion + Martin + Tulowitzki - 59M
84M committed to 6 players. The Jays will still get big savings from a number of team controlled players (Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar, Pompey, Colabello that are probably only going to bump the Jays up to 90M or so at most.
The Jays also have 33M in arbitration salaries that would put them somewhere around 123M. That would leave the Jays with a roster that would be would still have a lot of holes in the pitching department.
Rotation: Stroman - Estrada - Dickey - Hutchison - UFA
Bullpen: Osuna - Sanchez - Loup - Delabar - Hendriks - Tepara
Starters: Revere, Pillar, Bautista, Encarnacion, Colabello, Travis, Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Martin
Bench: Saunders, Pompey, Hague, Goins, Smoak, Thole
One of Revere/Saunders is likely gone. I'm not sure that I would trust Saunder's knee at this point but Revere is going to come at a much larger price tag.
The Jays need at least 1 if not two more reliable bullpen arms and they need another starting pitcher. They also probably shouldn't rely on Thole to be their backup catcher although I don't like Martin catching the knuckleball.
The Jays are creeping closer to that cap limit though.
Starters - Dickey + Estrada - 25M
Relievers - None under contract
Position - Bautista + Encarnacion + Martin + Tulowitzki - 59M
84M committed to 6 players. The Jays will still get big savings from a number of team controlled players (Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar, Pompey, Colabello that are probably only going to bump the Jays up to 90M or so at most.
The Jays also have 33M in arbitration salaries that would put them somewhere around 123M. That would leave the Jays with a roster that would be would still have a lot of holes in the pitching department.
Rotation: Stroman - Estrada - Dickey - Hutchison - UFA
Bullpen: Osuna - Sanchez - Loup - Delabar - Hendriks - Tepara
Starters: Revere, Pillar, Bautista, Encarnacion, Colabello, Travis, Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Martin
Bench: Saunders, Pompey, Hague, Goins, Smoak, Thole
One of Revere/Saunders is likely gone. I'm not sure that I would trust Saunder's knee at this point but Revere is going to come at a much larger price tag.
The Jays need at least 1 if not two more reliable bullpen arms and they need another starting pitcher. They also probably shouldn't rely on Thole to be their backup catcher although I don't like Martin catching the knuckleball.
I don't consider the reported 140M cap as anything but a guess from someone in the media. I think if the team feels they can improve the team without jeopardizing the future the Jays would strongly consider it. I think they saw the potential earning power of a good Toronto Blue Jays team in the last quarter of last year and would be crazy to forgo profit because of a self imposed cap. I think every potential expenditure will be analyzed on case by case basis.L K said:
2 years, 26M. Glad he's coming back.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-reach-two-year-26m-agreement-with-estrada/
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-reach-two-year-26m-agreement-with-estrada/
herman
Well-known member
I think I posted this before: http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/
Here's a guy who isn't just throwing; he's pitching.
Estrada has completely changed the way he attacks hitters. Whereas before he was following the standard philosophy of attempting to work down, Estrada is now pitching more towards the top of the zone. This is especially true of his fastball:
Pitching at the top of the zone is often a dangerous proposition for a pitcher, as history suggests that throwing the ball there leads to loud contact. Estrada hasn?t exactly been homer stingy (3.3% HR rate compared to league average of 2.6%), but he has certainly improved from last year?s league worst 4.6% home run rate. Simply put, this plan of attack is designed to generate flyballs and Estrada?s flyball rate this year is the highest of his career (52%). When the ball stays in the yard, flyballs are the easiest type of play to turn into outs, which would result in the very low BABIP we saw above.
Of course, those home runs are still something to consider. But Chris Young, another pitcher who works almost exclusively up in the strike zone and habitually out pitches his peripherals, has a theory as to why this approach may be mitigating that risk. As the low strike has become so prominent, and groundballs so coveted, the game?s top pitchers have been attacking that part of the zone with regularity. As a result, the elite hitters have begun tailoring their swings specifically to hit that pitch (including Josh Donaldson). By attacking the top of the zone, pitchers are adjusting back to the adjustment.
But not just anybody can pitch up in the zone and get away with it. There?s a very real reason that Marco Estrada and Chris Young can throw the ball up there and survive. Both of those pitchers get abnormally high amounts of spin on the baseball. In fact, Marco Estrada is one of the leaders in baseball in average spin rate on his fastball and second, to Young, in ?rise.?
Now, obviously a human can?t make a fastball actually rise, but Estrada?s falls at a rate much slower than everybody else?s, to the point that his fastball drops 12.3 inches less than would be expected by gravity. This leads to a lot of batters getting under the ball and hitting those weak flyballs we?ve seen from Estrada all season.
Of course, it?s not just the fastball that is being helped by Estrada?s spin rate. The value of the changeup is that it mimics the fastball. This is especially true for Estrada, as his slowball has also started dropping at a lower rate than expected. As a result, it really does look like the 90 mph pitch and then just doesn?t arrive. That?s how you get a 35% whiff rate on a pitch that is typically designed just for weak contact.
But the biggest effect of this lovely spin/release data (hopefully I?m not making your head spin) has been on Estrada?s curveball. Heading into this season, Marco Estrada?s hook was getting hit pretty hard. Batters were doing damage to the tune of .292/.309/.449 and a wOBA of .332. This year, those numbers are just .229/.245/.333 for a wOBA of .256.
The contact rate has been mostly steady, but the biggest difference is on batted balls. Coming into this season batters had a ?well hit average (WHAV)? on Estrada curveballs of .233. That means 23.3% of the curveballs put into play were hit hard. This year?s WHAV: .063. The reason: Estrada is getting more drop on his curveball (relative to gravity) than ever before, at nearly 7 inches. When you combine that with the fastball, you?re looking at a difference of nearly 20 inches of movement, which is just deadly. Estrada has started throwing the curveball at the top of the zone as well. By matching the initial plane of his fastball, he is able to get some funky swings.
Here's a guy who isn't just throwing; he's pitching.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
herman said:
Is it really you, Pat Tabler?
GhostofPotvin29
New member
herman said:Potvin29 said:
So strong.
Hopefully the Jays load up on pitchers and ballplayers.