Islanders @ Leafs - Dec. 29th, 7:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

19-12-5, 43 points | 13-14-7, 33 points

Projected Lines

Lee-Tavares-Bailey Kulemin-Nielsen-Okposo Nelson-Grabovski-Strome Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck Leddy-Tamonic de Haan-Boychuk Hickey-Strait Greiss ​

JVR-Bozak-Parenteau Grabner-Kadri-Komarov Winnik-Holland-Lupul Matthias-Froese-Boyes Gardiner-Phaneuf Hunwick-Rielly Marincin-Polak Bernier​

Scratches

Steve Bernier Eric Boulton Marek Zidlicky ​

Frank Corrado Garret Sparks​

Line-up Notes

NYI
?Greiss will likely start for the Islanders

TOR
?Bernier will likely start for the Leafs
Injuries

?Jaroslav Halak - Upper Body - Injured Reserve ?Jean-Francois Berube - Lower Body - Injured Reserve​

?Stephane Robidas - Old - Out indefinitely ?Garret Sparks - Lower Body - Week to week ?Nick Spaling - Upper Body - Injured Reserve​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
http://vaughnlive.tv/leafstreamer
http://gofirstrow.eu/sport/ice-hockey.html
​

 

[freer]

3-2 leafs

 

[Bender]

I have a bad feeling we're going to start climbing the standings to a point where we get to the middle of the pack.

Seriously hoping we make some moves at the deadline.

 

[Highlander]

Bozak is starting to look like a first round pick from someone with his improved play

 

[Frank E]

Bozak is starting to look like a first round pick from someone with his improved play

Right, we need to be looking on the bright side here...if the PAPs and Bozaks keep playing well, their return gets better and better.  Kind of wish that Boyes and Matthias would get in gear though.

The Leafs aren't going to deviate, they'll be sellers at the deadline. 

 

[Kaberle15]

I'm kind of worry that the Pens won't make the playoffs this year, and Kessel's 1st will be in 2016-17 draft, and how do you move a top 5 goal scorer in the league and accept a lottery protected pick for 2 years ?

Anyway, hope they play almost like to win, but don't.

 

[bustaheims]

Bozak is starting to look like a first round pick from someone with his improved play

Considering his contract status, a 1st round pick might be a little on the optimistic side of things - I'm not convinced GMs will have fully bought-in to his production being transferable - but he's definitely played himself into a position where the Leafs should be able to find some teams that would be interested in trading for him without the Leafs basically having to give him away.

 

[bustaheims]

I have a bad feeling we're going to start climbing the standings to a point where we get to the middle of the pack.

Seriously hoping we make some moves at the deadline.

I'm not - not until they start being able to beat Eastern Conference teams with any kind of regularity. Almost all their success has come against the West. Only 4 wins in 19 games against the East - 2 of which came via shootout, only 1 against a team currently in a playoff position, and none in their own division. 35 of their remaining 48 games are against Eastern teams, including 19 within the division. They also have a pair of west coast road trips, on which they don't have the most successful track record.

And, as Frank says, management isn't going to deviate from the plan because the Leafs may not be right at the bottom of the league approaching the trade deadline. It's extremely unlikely they end up anywhere near playoff contention - they're 9 points of a spot right now, with every team ahead of them holding the tiebreaker (which means they'd actually have to gain 10 points to get into a playoff spot) - and, knowing that, all the pending UFAs will be shopped, and a significant portion of them will be moved. It's also possible, though less likely, that guys like JvR, Lupul, Bozak and Komarov get moved before the deadline. While the team may be flirting with moving out of the bottom 5 for now, it still doesn't look likely they'll be able to stay out of it.

 

[2badknees]

Bozak is starting to look like a first round pick from someone with his improved play

Right, we need to be looking on the bright side here...if the PAPs and Bozaks keep playing well, their return gets better and better.  Kind of wish that Boyes and Matthias would get in gear though.

The Leafs aren't going to deviate, they'll be sellers at the deadline.

Yeah, it doesn't look so far that any of the rentals are going to move the needle much. Was hoping for a Raymond type resurrection to get a /Santorelli/Franson/Winnik/ version 1 payday for at least one of the guys they picked up.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, it doesn't look so far that any of the rentals are going to move the needle much. Was hoping for a Raymond type resurrection to get a /Santorelli/Franson/Winnik/ version 1 payday for at least one of the guys they picked up.

Parenteau and Grabner have both started producing pretty well. They're not going end up getting a 1st round pick for either of them, but that wasn't likely at any point. However, it wouldn't surprise me if PAP returned a 2nd + another mid round pick, and, if Grabner keeps scoring like he has of late, he could, as well. The rest of the pending UFA forwards . . . some of them will return ~4th rounders. Guys like Matthias and Spaling are the sort of bottom 6 depth grinders teams love to add at the deadline for cheap.

Polak is the most interesting case to me. He really represents the clash between the old school and the analytics crew. He's the type of defenceman teams have traditionally coveted at the deadline, but the new approach that's starting to take hold should steer teams away from him. There's a few old school GMs out there, though, so there's still a chance the Leafs can get a pretty good return on him.

 

[L K]

Yeah, none of the UFA/trade fodder guys have really lit the world on fire.  Parenteau's having a nice season (43 point pace) but it's with added ice time that he won't get on a contender and it isn't the kind of season that will get him much more value.

Grabner might be playing himself back into being tradable which is nice but it's going to be a small return.

Polak has been underwhelming and that's probably the biggest disappointment as his reputation as a defensive guy can sometimes make teams overpay.  I just can't see it happening for much value at this point. 

Boyes/Matthias have been underwhelming and I doubt anyone picks them up.

Even Winnik...he's been good but I think he'll stick around and get dealt next year.

 

[Bender]

I'm kind of worry that the Pens won't make the playoffs this year, and Kessel's 1st will be in 2016-17 draft, and how do you move a top 5 goal scorer in the league and accept a lottery protected pick for 2 years ?

Anyway, hope they play almost like to win, but don't.

It's actually quite scary where they are! Again, hoping they shake things up before the deadline and get the team firing on all cylinders. When your captain and best player is stuck in first gear you've got a problem. Maybe they need another offensive D help out Letang?

 

[freer]

Yeah, none of the UFA/trade fodder guys have really lit the world on fire.  Parenteau's having a nice season (43 point pace) but it's with added ice time that he won't get on a contender and it isn't the kind of season that will get him much more value.

Grabner might be playing himself back into being tradable which is nice but it's going to be a small return.

Polak has been underwhelming and that's probably the biggest disappointment as his reputation as a defensive guy can sometimes make teams overpay.  I just can't see it happening for much value at this point. 

Boyes/Matthias have been underwhelming and I doubt anyone picks them up.

Even Winnik...he's been good but I think he'll stick around and get dealt next year.

Dont understand your dislike for Polak. Honestly on a sub 500 team he is a +9. Whether or not people like it teams still look at that stat.

 

[2badknees]

Polak is the most interesting case to me. He really represents the clash between the old school and the analytics crew. He's the type of defenceman teams have traditionally coveted at the deadline, but the new approach that's starting to take hold should steer teams away from him.

I could definitely see more interest in Polak than a lot of the Leaf forwards, simply because defence is a tough position for an inexperienced AHL fill-in in higher-stakes playoff games.

I wonder, if GMs around the league are as willing to deal anything approaching significant picks for deadline depth player rentals, as they have been in the past. When you look at what value Nashville got for Santorelli and Franson, combined with the new(er) understanding and commitment to having stakes in each and every draft.. maybe we'll see the typical 2nd round rental pick is now a 3rd?

 

[Frank E]

Yeah, it doesn't look so far that any of the rentals are going to move the needle much. Was hoping for a Raymond type resurrection to get a /Santorelli/Franson/Winnik/ version 1 payday for at least one of the guys they picked up.

Parenteau and Grabner have both started producing pretty well. They're not going end up getting a 1st round pick for either of them, but that wasn't likely at any point. However, it wouldn't surprise me if PAP returned a 2nd + another mid round pick, and, if Grabner keeps scoring like he has of late, he could, as well. The rest of the pending UFA forwards . . . some of them will return ~4th rounders. Guys like Matthias and Spaling are the sort of bottom 6 depth grinders teams love to add at the deadline for cheap.

Polak is the most interesting case to me. He really represents the clash between the old school and the analytics crew. He's the type of defenceman teams have traditionally coveted at the deadline, but the new approach that's starting to take hold should steer teams away from him. There's a few old school GMs out there, though, so there's still a chance the Leafs can get a pretty good return on him.

I think that playoff hockey gets a little more grindy, and guys like Polak tend to be more valuable then.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

LA's been looking for a Matt Greene-type defenceman for a long time now, Friedman just reiterated it in his latest 30 Thoughts. And I believe they've actually been linked to Polak in the past. Not sure what's keeping that trade up, seems like a perfect fit.

 

[bustaheims]

I think that playoff hockey gets a little more grindy, and guys like Polak tend to be more valuable then.

The physical aspects of the game definitely appear to become more prevalent, but the speed of the game also seems to increase, which makes guys like Polak less valuable. Speed, mobility, and puck movement skills become that much more important in the playoffs.

But, the old school guys still think old school thoughts, so Polak could be in high demand.

 

[bustaheims]

Dont understand your dislike for Polak. Honestly on a sub 500 team he is a +9. Whether or not people like it teams still look at that stat.

Smart teams don't. I actually don't think too many teams do any more. It being a flawed and pretty useless stat has been accepted by just about everyone other than the Don Cherrys and Glenn Healys of the world.

 

[2badknees]

Dont understand your dislike for Polak. Honestly on a sub 500 team he is a +9. Whether or not people like it teams still look at that stat.

Smart teams don't. I actually don't think too many teams do any more. It being a flawed and pretty useless stat has been accepted by just about everyone other than the Don Cherrys and Glenn Healys of the world.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I have a bad feeling we're going to start climbing the standings to a point where we get to the middle of the pack.

Seriously hoping we make some moves at the deadline.

I'm not - not until they start being able to beat Eastern Conference teams with any kind of regularity. Almost all their success has come against the West. Only 4 wins in 19 games against the East - 2 of which came via shootout, only 1 against a team currently in a playoff position, and none in their own division. 35 of their remaining 48 games are against Eastern teams, including 19 within the division. They also have a pair of west coast road trips, on which they don't have the most successful track record.

So...on the one hand they are getting all their wins vs. the West but on the other hand they have a west coast trip coming up and they don't have success vs. the west typically.