Leaf UFAs and trade deadline.

[slapshot]

Whom of the Leaf UFAs coming up over the next year or two would you consider offering another contract to? Perhaps none of them? But if you did, how much and how long. Here are my thoughts:

JVR, 27: Obviously if you could get the right d-man, he would bring the most in return. But 30-goal guys don't grow in trees (and neither do the type of young d-man the Leafs would probably want in return). And, if the right deal isn't there, I would like to see how he performs in playoff pressure. If he showed leadership in the playoffs, I would consider extending him 4-years to age 32 under the right dollars, $5.5 would be my max. He would probably want more, but might consider a team discount if he figure the Leafs actual do have the potential to win a Cup over the next few years.

Bozak, 30: Ditto on playoffs leadership. Would only extend him two-year max, at no more than $3.5 million. But also trade bait for right deal. Nevertheless, decent all round player, good faceoff guy, better slotted on 3rd line than 1st.

Komarov, 29: I think he shows the most leadership of upcoming UFAs. Very versatile (PK, PP), plays with edge, well-liked in dressing room, and can probably stick around for a couple extra years at team friendly price. Babcock likes him.

My guess of these three, one or two get dealt, most likely Bozak or JVR, depending on what other teams are looking for and what they have to offer.

Others: Ben Smith will be gone and Lupul is not even in the discussion. All other UFAs on defence and on Marlies will be gone. Hunwick may hang on for a bit as a 6-7 guy, but probably not.

Also, what UFAs upcoming on other teams would you target, if any?

 

[mr grieves]

I like JvR okay, but I'd trade him for picks/prospects, unless the experience of the 2017 playoffs proves so thrilling that he'd sign well below market value -- 5.5m sounds okay. I don't think a contract like that would force any tough decisions elsewhere on roster, and, if we have some post-season success in the next few years, he'd be tradeable toward the end of the contract. Still, that seems unlikely, so I'd move him this off-season. Of course, if you can package JvR with some picks and prospects and get a right-handed Gardiner (a year or two farther along in development when we got him), then you do that.

Bozak probably has a trade value that exceeds the benefit he offers over the long term. The team's set at center through 3 lines, and, while the organization isn't very deep there, there are probably better value options that can be acquired to fill in when injuries hit (Holland types that Babcock doesn't hate).

Komarov is the most replaceable of the bunch, as we've got plenty of middle-six wing candidates in the system. So, I'd trade him too.

In general: As the Leafs get good, they're going to have complementary performers like Brown and Hyman, and -- later -- Leipsic and Kapanen, looking for second contracts. To fit them, you probably can't have Bozak and Komarov on their 3rd contracts. And, when Brown & c. are looking at their 3rd contracts, you're going to want to replace them internally, hence the value in getting picks for Bozak, JvR, and Komarov now.

UFA moves I'd like to see: depth center, RHD (Shattenkirk?), and a back-up goalie.

 

[Kin]

As a friendly suggestion, you might want to peruse the board before starting a thread like this. Who to sign, trade, etc has a lot of steam in various places, noticeably the armchair GM thread.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

As a friendly suggestion, you might want to peruse the board before starting a thread like this. Who to sign, trade, etc has a lot of steam in various places, noticeably the armchair GM thread.

My thoughts exactly.

Slapshot often posts some quality stuff, but it's always a new thread and never as part of the overall discussion. 

As Nik said, if you see a thread that's pretty long, chances are that's where everyone throws around trade and lineup ideas/speculation.

 

[slapshot]

As a friendly suggestion, you might want to peruse the board before starting a thread like this. Who to sign, trade, etc has a lot of steam in various places, noticeably the armchair GM thread.

Thanks for the reply. I hadn't been on in a while and only checked out the first page of topics. I will keep that in mind though.

 

[digdug]

If the Leafs continue to be in playoff contention

I wouldn't expect them to trade any of JVR Bozak or Komarov,
but who knows.

 

[Kaberle15]

If the Leafs continue to be in playoff contention

I wouldn't expect them to trade any of JVR Bozak or Komarov,
but who knows.

They should Stand as they are if that is the case. Not Selling the future, not shipping the UFAs.

 

[sneakyray]

JVR is going to be 29 when his current deal ends at the end of next year.  I certainly don't want to sign him to a 5 year deal at 29 even if its a middle of the road contract (like 5-6mil).  He is going to be on the decline for pretty much the entirety of that contract.

I get not trading away this years ufas...they are no good and all in the minors right now so they should just use the savings at the end of the year and I don't think they will get anything other than depth picks/prospects for hunlak.  Bozak and JVR are the interesting ones, maybe komarov.

I think they will try and retain komorov for a 2-3 year deal after next year but on the cheap...Babs likes him and he is a nice peice that can move up and down the lineup but is probably a 3rd or 4th line guy on a contender.

Bozak I am not sure about.  If the plan is to have nylander move to C after he is gone then I could see them shipping out bozak for picks but I think they might be ok with keeping him until his deal runs out and using the cap space elsewhere.  Plus hes another guy you have to protect for the expansion draft and the leafs are short on those right now.

JVR I wouldn't mind keeping but if they got a nice return for him I would do it and the return I would be looking for is either that really good top pairing D (not sure who though)  or a homerun 2nd line C (think Matt Ducheneish) OR...a good prospect plus a first (like the kessel deal but with a guaranteed 1st).

the fact of the matter is that bozak, JVR, lupul, komarov all come off the books next summer when tavares will potentially be ufa.  although I wouldn't put my hope in signing a guy who is still over a year away from being there...I would prefer to trade for a guy and get the sure thing but I am just saying that the cap space can be very valuable too.  Plus if marner nylander and matthews plus zaitsev brown and hyman all need new deals they may not be able to afford JVR and/or tavares anyways.  And I didn't even mention shattenkirk for this year.

basically they have a ton of options right now...its kind of exciting to think about but also kind of exciting just to watch the young guys grow even if they make no moves at all.

 

[bustaheims]

kristen_shilton: Lamoriello says #Leafs overall plan won't be altered by competition for playoffs. Everyone remember this at the trade deadline.

With the caveat the GMs say one thing and do the other on a regular basis, I'd surmise this suggests the Leafs won't be bidding on significant rental pieces, regardless of their position - and may still look to move some of their UFAs even if they're in a playoff spot (they can probably be replaced internally, any way).

 

[sneakyray]

kristen_shilton: Lamoriello says #Leafs overall plan won't be altered by competition for playoffs. Everyone remember this at the trade deadline.

With the caveat the GMs say one thing and do the other on a regular basis, I'd surmise this suggests the Leafs won't be bidding on significant rental pieces, regardless of their position - and may still look to move some of their UFAs even if they're in a playoff spot (they can probably be replaced internally, any way).

were there any rumors suggesting they were looking at rental pieces?  I had always thought it would be ufas for picks and maybe some of the vets for young help on D or prospects/picks

 

[bustaheims]

were there any rumors suggesting they were looking at rental pieces?  I had always thought it would be ufas for picks and maybe some of the vets for young help on D or prospects/picks

No, but, if they're firmly in a playoff spot at the deadline, you can be sure some people will be calling for them to. Lou's kind of getting out in front of that now. They might still pick up a depth defenceman or something like that, but they won't be looking to make any acquisitions of significance (as in anyone that costs more than, let's say, a 4th round pick).

And, when it comes to JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, I get the impression the decision to trade them will be based entirely on the offers on the table, regardless of the team's position in the standings. I'd say they won't be "unavailable" even if the Leafs hold a playoff spot - the price will just be a little higher.

 

[sneakyray]

were there any rumors suggesting they were looking at rental pieces?  I had always thought it would be ufas for picks and maybe some of the vets for young help on D or prospects/picks

No, but, if they're firmly in a playoff spot at the deadline, you can be sure some people will be calling for them to. Lou's kind of getting out in front of that now. They might still pick up a depth defenceman or something like that, but they won't be looking to make any acquisitions of significance (as in anyone that costs more than, let's say, a 4th round pick).

And, when it comes to JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, I get the impression the decision to trade them will be based entirely on the offers on the table, regardless of the team's position in the standings. I'd say they won't be "unavailable" even if the Leafs hold a playoff spot - the price will just be a little higher.

thats the sense I get too.

 

[Kaberle15]

were there any rumors suggesting they were looking at rental pieces?  I had always thought it would be ufas for picks and maybe some of the vets for young help on D or prospects/picks

No, but, if they're firmly in a playoff spot at the deadline, you can be sure some people will be calling for them to. Lou's kind of getting out in front of that now. They might still pick up a depth defenceman or something like that, but they won't be looking to make any acquisitions of significance (as in anyone that costs more than, let's say, a 4th round pick).

And, when it comes to JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, I get the impression the decision to trade them will be based entirely on the offers on the table, regardless of the team's position in the standings. I'd say they won't be "unavailable" even if the Leafs hold a playoff spot - the price will just be a little higher.

thats the sense I get too.

As it was said, they can be replaced internally, so if the right deal is there, they should do it.
If JvR can land a top 3 RD, they should.

 

[pnjunction]

Yeah I don't think you need to parse Lou's statements with fine-toothed comb to surmise they aren't going after any rentals.  If anything we'll be selling if a good enough offer comes in.

I've heard recently they are over-rated but we'll get killed in the faceoff circle if Bozak goes unless the replacement is good there.  We're at 20th in the league 48.7% and that's with Bozak taking a ton of draws at over 56%.

 

[Kin]

I've heard recently they are over-rated but we'll get killed in the faceoff circle if Bozak goes unless the replacement is good there.  We're at 20th in the league 48.7% and that's with Bozak taking a ton of draws at over 56%.

They are legitimately overrated though. This is obvious but the difference between someone at 46% and 54% is 8 possessions per 100 faceoffs. Or, roughly, 8 possessions per 5 games. Or 1.6 possession per game.

In the big scheme of things it doesn't matter much.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I've heard recently they are over-rated but we'll get killed in the faceoff circle if Bozak goes unless the replacement is good there.  We're at 20th in the league 48.7% and that's with Bozak taking a ton of draws at over 56%.

They are legitimately overrated though. This is obvious but the difference between someone at 46% and 54% is 8 possessions per 100 faceoffs. Or, roughly, 8 possessions per 5 games. Or 1.6 possession per game.

In the big scheme of things it doesn't matter much.

So when Bozak wins the draw in the d-zone, but Hunlack gives the puck right back, that's not a positive event?

 

[slapshot]

Even given this quite a bit of though over the past few days. I think at the most, the Leafs tinker by adding another defenceman, probably in the 4-6 range, just a slight upgrade on what they have now. They stand pat until at least the summer, and maybe longer.

There is no urgency around the key future UFAs, JVR, Bozak, Komorov. I think the Leafs are doing it right compared to say what the Oilers were doing. Prior to Chairelli coming in, the Oilers were going pretty much with all young guns and not much in the way of solid veterans to help out. Chairelli has added some veteran support (and of course there is the McDavid factor, huge) but the Oilers are starting to turn the corner. Lou, Babs and Shanny have kept a reasonable veteran core in place to help the youth. I don't see a need to rush those guys out the door and mess with the chemistry unless the absolute right deal came along.  I don't even necessarily have a problem resigning some of these UFA forwards to new deals if they make sense. Some people I think have the idea that veterans are becoming obsolete past age 30. Granted the game is being influenced by a youth movement, but I don't think the Pens, Hawks and Kings management would all be extending their core players well into their mid-30s if they thought they would become useless. Granted they may be past their prime, but depending on the player can still be really productive in their mid-30s. It really depends on the player and the contract. I would not be opposed to extending JVR again 4-5 years at the right money. On the other hand, if you could get the right d-man you probably make that trade. I would be interested to see what if the Leafs could pluck another plum out of the KHL, US college ranks or how their younger guys on the farm or in the system develop. You have to think about who would want a guy like a JVR or Komorov, likely either a team with a chance to win it all (mostly like) or maybe a team that just wants enough to get into the playoffs. So what could you get for that, probably not a top 3 defenceman in either case because that would just weaken them in another area. So it would likely be picks and/or prospects, none of which may pane out. Then, you just given up a 30 goal guy or a real versatile veteran for something that may or may not fit in 2-3 years down the road. Doesn't mean you never take that chance, but you want to be fairly confident. That's why you have to trust Lou, Shanny and Hunter will make the right calls. Only time will tell, but I think they will take a really calculated path on only act when they think it makes sense, not being the media likes to spin who could be traded on a slow news day.

 

[Highlander]

Both Loov and Valiev have been scratched from the Marlies lineup for last two games. Perhaps part of a larger trade?? ???

 

[Zee]

Both Loov and Valiev have been scratched from the Marlies lineup for last two games. Perhaps part of a larger trade?? ???

Maybe that or maybe they both just stink?

 

[Highlander]

Looks like Loov played yesterday in the win, so that theory is over in the Bronx (sorry Brooklyn).  Timashov seems to be a good playmaker and drew 2 penalties. Still so young with time to develop