McDavid's next contract

[CarltonTheBear]

Connor is about to go into the final year of his ELC, so he'll be eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1st. According to Elliotte Friedman, they'll have a deal ready to announce when they can:

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/880055907513757696
www.twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/880055907513757696

8 years (max term) with a cap hit of around $13.25mil.

A $75mil salary cap means the maximum he can sign for would be $15mil (20%). But that's for next season and his next contract would be on the 2018-19 salary cap. Let's say the cap jumps to $78mil, that means he'll take up about 17% of Edmonton's space.

Crosby's first post-ELC contract took up 17.3% of the cap when it was originally signed, but that was only a 5-year deal. His next contract dropped to 14.5% at the time it was signed, but that was one of those 12-year deals with years tagged onto the end to get the cap down.

Ovi's post-ELC contract, which was a 12-year deal at basically a flat salary all the way through, accounted for 16.82% of the cap ceiling when it was signed. Toews and Kane's current contracts accounted for 15.22% of the cap ceiling when they signed.

So this seems pretty fair.

 

[Kin]

I don't disagree with the assessment and I think the redistribution of salary cap dollars from the Clarksons to the Karlsson's of the world is long overdue, I think a problem with comparing the various %'s of your superstar deals is that a lot of the previous ones took place in a league that was experiencing sustained and continuous growth. I don't think any of those deals were signed thinking their initial cap % would be close to their eventual cap %.

Now however we're in a league with stagnant revenues and in a sports media landscape that seems a little tapped out. Remember the projections that had the league at a 90+ million cap in a few years? That seems like a long time away.

So good on McDavid, he deserves it and he should go out and get it, but there's a very good chance that this ends up being a very different sort of contract for the new breed of stars.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I feel like when a lot of these big contracts were signed, it was under the impression that the salary cap would continue to increase. Even with the increased revenues from Vegas, I'm not sure the cap will trend upwards quite as much.

I know it's a hard sell, but looking at Chicago, it becomes close to impossible, to put together a roster with any kind of depth when you have one or more players eating upwards of 10% of the cap.

Looking even at Nylander, he could ask for something significant, I would have been okay with 6, but is McDavid 7.25 million a season better than Nylander?

I wonder if we look back at this as a bit of a watershed moment during the next lockout.

 

[herman]

Where does that benchmark our kids?
Nylander: 6-7/8
Marner: 6-7/8
Matthews: 9-10/8

We have internal precedent (for what little that might be worth) with:
Rielly: 5/6
Andersen: 5/5
Kadri: 4.5/6
Zaitsev: 4.5/7
Martin: 2.5/4

 

[Kin]

I feel like when a lot of these big contracts were signed, it was under the impression that the salary cap would continue to increase. Even with the increased revenues from Vegas, I'm not sure the cap will trend upwards quite as much.

Unless Vegas is a massive revenue generator, which seems unlikely, they won't have much effect on the cap. If anything, Vegas is likely to add to the stagnation.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Now however we're in a league with stagnant revenues and in a sports media landscape that seems a little tapped out. Remember the projections that had the league at a 90+ million cap in a few years? That seems like a long time away.

I remember that Mirtle wrote the article that got everybody excited about the $90mil number, so I looked it up: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

Here were the projected cap ceiling figures he used per year assuming 5% annual revenue growth and the PA using the 5% kicker every year (was written in 2013 when the 12-13 and 13-14 caps were already known). I've also included the ACTUAL cap ceiling's in bold next them up to now:

12-13: $70.2mil
13-14: $64.3mil
14-15: $64.3mil    $69.0mil
15-16: $66.1mil    $71.4mil
16-17: $69.5mil    $73mil
17-18: $73.1mil    $75mil
18-19: $76.9mil
19-20: $80.9mil
20-21: $85.1mil
21-22: $89.5mil

I won't pretend to be an expect on league finances, and I do understand there is worry around the league about stagnant revenues, but I just found it interesting that we've actually outpaced Mirtle's projections for those years.

 

[Palmateer29]

Looking even at Nylander, he could ask for something significant, I would have been okay with 6, but is McDavid 7.25 million a season better than Nylander?

Yes....

 

[Bill_Berg]

Now however we're in a league with stagnant revenues and in a sports media landscape that seems a little tapped out. Remember the projections that had the league at a 90+ million cap in a few years? That seems like a long time away.

I remember that Mirtle wrote the article that got everybody excited about the $90mil number, so I looked it up: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

Here were the projected cap ceiling figures he used per year assuming 5% annual revenue growth and the PA using the 5% kicker every year (was written in 2013 when the 12-13 and 13-14 caps were already known). I've also included the ACTUAL cap ceiling's in bold next them up to now:

12-13: $70.2mil
13-14: $64.3mil
14-15: $64.3mil    $69.0mil
15-16: $66.1mil    $71.4mil
16-17: $69.5mil    $73mil
17-18: $73.1mil    $75mil
18-19: $76.9mil
19-20: $80.9mil
20-21: $85.1mil
21-22: $89.5mil

I won't pretend to be an expect on league finances, and I do understand there is worry around the league about stagnant revenues, but I just found it interesting that we've actually outpaced Mirtle's projections for those years.

The totals are higher now, but the growth rate is half(ish) of what Mirtle projected, except for that first year. At the current rate, and 2 mill increase per year, the actual cap will be behind the projections in 2 years.

 

[Kin]

Now however we're in a league with stagnant revenues and in a sports media landscape that seems a little tapped out. Remember the projections that had the league at a 90+ million cap in a few years? That seems like a long time away.

I remember that Mirtle wrote the article that got everybody excited about the $90mil number, so I looked it up: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/how-the-nhls-salary-cap-could-hit-90-million/article7029575/

Here were the projected cap ceiling figures he used per year assuming 5% annual revenue growth and the PA using the 5% kicker every year (was written in 2013 when the 12-13 and 13-14 caps were already known). I've also included the ACTUAL cap ceiling's in bold next them up to now:

12-13: $70.2mil
13-14: $64.3mil
14-15: $64.3mil    $69.0mil
15-16: $66.1mil    $71.4mil
16-17: $69.5mil    $73mil
17-18: $73.1mil    $75mil
18-19: $76.9mil
19-20: $80.9mil
20-21: $85.1mil
21-22: $89.5mil

I won't pretend to be an expect on league finances, and I do understand there is worry around the league about stagnant revenues, but I just found it interesting that we've actually outpaced Mirtle's projections for those years.

The totals are higher now, but the growth rate is half(ish) of what Mirtle projected, except for that first year. At the current rate, and 2 mill increase per year, the actual cap will be behind the projections in 2 years.

And we've already seen that the PA isn't overly inclined to use the full 5% kicker these days. When players are losing so much salary to the escrow.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Where does that benchmark our kids?
Nylander: 6-7/8
Marner: 6-7/8
Matthews: 9-10/8

Assuming Matthews hits/exceeds the point-per-game mark next season, that's what I would have pegged him for prior to McDavid's big deal. But I think this probably pushes him to the $10-11mil mark.

As for Marner and Nylander, I'm not sure if this really moves anything for them. I always figured they'd be around $6-7mil long-term anyway. One of the interesting things about the Toews/Kane deal is that it didn't really seem to effect the 2nd tier of top young players looking for big contract extensions. It effected Kopitar's $10mil contract but that was his 3rd deal and he was in the potential UFA status. All the guys still in the RFA territory (Gaudreau, Schiefele, MacKinnon, Barkov, and Forsberg) still signed in the $6-7mil range.

So GM's might be willing to potentially put a big strain on their cap to get a guy like McDavid signed long-term (and to a lesser extent Matthews) but I still think they're going to keep the caps of that next group of RFA's down as much as they can.

 

[Kin]

So GM's might be willing to potentially put a big strain on their cap to get a guy like McDavid signed long-term (and to a lesser extent Matthews) but I still think they're going to keep the caps of that next group of RFA's down as much as they can.

Maybe but that may be a much harder sell now. Kane/Toews were going into UFA status and had achieved a ton of team success so a GM could present a deal to a young player as being 60-70% of what the elite guys negotiating from an entirely different position were getting.

Now, for the same deal, the GM would have to make the case that his good young player is worth 40% of the best players in the exact same negotiating position.

 

[Zee]

It's going to be a dicey situation with our big 3.  If players look at their worth to their respective teams, and percentage against the team cap, how can Matthews ask for anything less than $12M per season?  It's not a simple case of "McDavid is #1 in the league at $13.25M so player X on another team is worth 30% less"  Matthews is the most important player on the Leafs and should be paid according to his worth for their team.  If McDavid is getting 17% of his team's cap, you can argue that Matthews should get close to that.  He's not as talented as McDavid, but he's just as important to the Leafs as McDavid is to the Oilers.

So when Matthews deal is due, and if the cap is $81M...let's say his agent argues "McDavid, the best player in the league signed for 17% of his team's cap...Matthews is only asking for 15% of his team's cap"

81*15% = 12.15M/season.

 

[Kin]

It's going to be a dicey situation with our big 3.  If players look at their worth to their respective teams, and percentage against the team cap, how can Matthews ask for anything less than $12M per season?  It's not a simple case of "McDavid is #1 in the league at $13.25M so player X on another team is worth 30% less"  Matthews is the most important player on the Leafs and should be paid according to his worth for their team.  If McDavid is getting 17% of his team's cap, you can argue that Matthews should get close to that.  He's not as talented as McDavid, but he's just as important to the Leafs as McDavid is to the Oilers.

So when Matthews deal is due, and if the cap is $81M...let's say his agent argues "McDavid, the best player in the league signed for 17% of his team's cap...Matthews is only asking for 15% of his team's cap"

81*15% = 12.15M/season.

I actually think how good a hockey player is in a context neutral sense is sort of the bedrock principle of how salaries are negotiated.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Draisaitl's next contract, which should be coming soon as well, might provide us with a better picture of where post-ELC deals for non-generational players are going to go.

 

[Zee]

It's going to be a dicey situation with our big 3.  If players look at their worth to their respective teams, and percentage against the team cap, how can Matthews ask for anything less than $12M per season?  It's not a simple case of "McDavid is #1 in the league at $13.25M so player X on another team is worth 30% less"  Matthews is the most important player on the Leafs and should be paid according to his worth for their team.  If McDavid is getting 17% of his team's cap, you can argue that Matthews should get close to that.  He's not as talented as McDavid, but he's just as important to the Leafs as McDavid is to the Oilers.

So when Matthews deal is due, and if the cap is $81M...let's say his agent argues "McDavid, the best player in the league signed for 17% of his team's cap...Matthews is only asking for 15% of his team's cap"

81*15% = 12.15M/season.

I actually think how good a hockey player is in a context neutral sense is sort of the bedrock principle of how salaries are negotiated.

I'm going on the assumption that Matthews has another great season and is considered among the best centers in the game.

 

[Kin]

I'm going on the assumption that Matthews has another great season and is considered among the best centers in the game.

Which, if it happens, will lead to him getting paid like one of the best centres in the league but the criteria would still be how good he is compared to other players, not how relatively valuable they are to their respective teams.

 

[Peter D.]

Leafs management should bring the big three together in a room, say "Here's $25 million...figure how to split it amongst yourselves."

 

[Peter D.]

I feel like when a lot of these big contracts were signed, it was under the impression that the salary cap would continue to increase. Even with the increased revenues from Vegas, I'm not sure the cap will trend upwards quite as much.

I see the cap flatlining as well, but I think the key driver will be the new U.S. TV deal that comes up in 2021.  Which would be just before the midpoint of the new deals signed by Matthews, Marner and Nylander.

 

[Zee]

Leafs management should bring the big three together in a room, say "Here's $25 million...figure how to split it amongst yourselves."

It'll probably be more like $30M for all 3.

 

[herman]

Leafs management should bring the big three together in a room, say "Here's $25 million...figure how to split it amongst yourselves."

It'll probably be more like $30M for all 3.

Uh, I'm thinking more like 22M.