NHL Draft Lottery

[ZBBM]

This lottery thang ought to be quite the show.  For anyone who likes to get weedy, here's the table with all the lucky number combos:

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/pdfs/NHL-Lottery-2015-Look-Up-Table-Numerical.pdf

I would like to know how the "lottery machine" works and what protocol the consulting company who came up with the system used to generate number sequences that are truly random.  It's not so easy.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Meant to make a thread for the lottery, our days of tanking in that sense are technically over. ZBBM beat me to it, so I just moved your post to a separate thread.

Here's a video explaining a little bit about the lottery:

[youtube]F7RsYbhBsng[/youtube]

From BuffaloNews:

Four balls, each numerbed 1-14, are drawn. That four number combination in any order becomes the lottery winner. It is matched with the list of each team's combination and the team that possesses the entry gets the No. 1 pick.

There are 1001 different ways the lottery could play out. The Leafs have 95 of those potential 1001 combinations. Want to see what they are? Here you go:

Memorize those numbers folk, and make sure you go to bed reciting them over and over again.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Video of the lottery process will be released, but only after the winner is announced. Too bad it won't all happen live, as that would be pretty amazing television. Have a split screen with the lottery process going on on one side, and the list of teams that can still match the combination as balls are being picked out on the other.

 

[ZBBM]

Meant to make a thread for the lottery, our days of tanking in that sense are technically over. ZBBM beat me to it, so I just moved your post to a separate thread.

Here's a video explaining a little bit about the lottery:

[youtube]F7RsYbhBsng[/youtube]

From BuffaloNews:

Four balls, each numerbed 1-14, are drawn. That four number combination in any order becomes the lottery winner. It is matched with the list of each team's combination and the team that possesses the entry gets the No. 1 pick.

There are 1001 different ways the lottery could play out. The Leafs have 95 of those potential 1001 combinations. Want to see what they are? Here you go:

Memorize those numbers folk, and make sure you go to bed reciting them over and over again.

The thing to remember is, if LAK or BOS win it, it absolutely does not mean the thing was rigged.  The laws of probability are such that you should never be surprised if an unexpected outcome happens in response to a particular trial ... that's what randomness means. 

You should especially not be surprised if a low-odds outcome happen in cases where the event's trial (in this case, the lottery draw) is run only once.  The Law of Large Numbers states that you will, * on average *, get expected outcomes if the trial is run a very large number of times.

So, if the system was such that the NHL ran 1000 lottery draws and then aggregated the totals to see who gets McDavid, and THEN if LAK or BOS won, you might have a legitimate beef as to whether the event was truly random.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

There are 1001 different ways the lottery could play out. The Leafs have 95 of those potential 1001 combinations. Want to see what they are? Here you go:

Memorize those numbers folk, and make sure you go to bed reciting them over and over again.

Hey nerd, try watching the lottery.  I don't need numbers to tell me who is going to win it.

Wait..yes I do.

 

[Al14]

Meant to make a thread for the lottery, our days of tanking in that sense are technically over. ZBBM beat me to it, so I just moved your post to a separate thread.

Here's a video explaining a little bit about the lottery:

[youtube]F7RsYbhBsng[/youtube]

From BuffaloNews:

Four balls, each numerbed 1-14, are drawn. That four number combination in any order becomes the lottery winner. It is matched with the list of each team's combination and the team that possesses the entry gets the No. 1 pick.

There are 1001 different ways the lottery could play out. The Leafs have 95 of those potential 1001 combinations. Want to see what they are? Here you go:

Memorize those numbers folk, and make sure you go to bed reciting them over and over again.

The thing to remember is, if LAK or BOS win it, it absolutely does not mean the thing was rigged.  The laws of probability are such that you should never be surprised if an unexpected outcome happens in response to a particular trial ... that's what randomness means. 

You should especially not be surprised if a low-odds outcome happen in cases where the event's trial (in this case, the lottery draw) is run only once.  The Law of Large Numbers states that you will, * on average *, get expected outcomes if the trial is run a very large number of times.

So, if the system was such that the NHL ran 1000 lottery draws and then aggregated the totals to see who gets McDavid, and THEN if LAK or BOS won, you might have a legitimate beef as to whether the event was truly random.

Would not surprise me one bit when McDavid ends up where Bettman thinks he's needed the most!  Nothing random about that!  :

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also don't forget that if a number from Carolina's batch is picked I'm holding a bunch of you personally responsible.

 

[Peter D.]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

*when the Leafs win*

 

[Frank E]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

It would be pretty cool...however Lawson Crouse is a pretty good consolation prize.

 

[Kin]

The thing to remember is, if LAK or BOS win it, it absolutely does not mean the thing was rigged.  The laws of probability are such that you should never be surprised if an unexpected outcome happens in response to a particular trial ... that's what randomness means. 

An even more important thing to remember might be that the list of teams that, if they win, people will say proves that it was rigged is probably longer than the list of teams where people wouldn't say that.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

It would be pretty cool...however Lawson Crouse is a pretty good consolation prize.

I'd certainly need consolation.

 

[Al14]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

It would be pretty cool...however Lawson Crouse is a pretty good consolation prize.

We don't need no stinking consolation prize!  We need the best, of the best!  McDavid, or, no one!  8)

 

[Frank E]

I can't even fathom what things would be like if the Leafs actually won.

It would be pretty cool...however Lawson Crouse is a pretty good consolation prize.

I'd certainly need consolation.

Very nicely done...was really hoping you'd bite on it though. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Pretty cool app:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/official

It expands on the previous simulator by including the the information about which combinations each team has. You can draw 1 ball at a time and see which teams are still in contention to win the lottery and what their odds are after every ball has been picked. Gives you a good sense of how it will work. My 1st time Columbus won it, but by the time it came to pick the final ball the Leafs had the 3rd best chance.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Pretty cool app:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/official

It expands on the previous simulator by including the the information about which combinations each team has. You can draw 1 ball at a time and see which teams are still in contention to win the lottery and what their odds are after every ball has been picked. Gives you a good sense of how it will work. My 1st time Columbus won it, but by the time it came to pick the final ball the Leafs had the 3rd best chance.

I did it 10 times, Buffalo only won once, NJ (dear god) won twice, Leafs once.  That one is fun.

 

[Bullfrog]

Would not surprise me one bit when McDavid ends up where Bettman thinks he's needed the most!  Nothing random about that!  :

Just so I know when to be upset: which team is where Bettman thinks he's needed the most?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Pretty cool app:

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/official

It expands on the previous simulator by including the the information about which combinations each team has. You can draw 1 ball at a time and see which teams are still in contention to win the lottery and what their odds are after every ball has been picked. Gives you a good sense of how it will work. My 1st time Columbus won it, but by the time it came to pick the final ball the Leafs had the 3rd best chance.

My 3rd time playing it, the 1st two balls came up 1 & 10. The Leafs held the best chance of winning the lottery at that point. Then a god-damn 3 came up and their odds went to 0%.

Maybe it's a good thing the process won't be done live, I'd probably have a heart attack.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Would not surprise me one bit when McDavid ends up where Bettman thinks he's needed the most!  Nothing random about that!  :

Just so I know when to be upset: which team is where Bettman thinks he's needed the most?

Pretty simple really.  In either Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Toronto, Carolina, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Columbus, San Jose, Colorado, Florida, Dallas or Los Angeles.  If any of them win then obviously it was rigged.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I did it 10 times, Buffalo only won once, NJ (dear god) won twice, Leafs once.  That one is fun.

I went 10 times, Buffalo only won once on mine too. The Sharks won twice!

edit: Went to 13 and the Sharks won again! What the heck

edit2: Sharks won again on the 16th time haha