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Post Mortem

slapshot

New member
Time to write the obituary on the season:

1. Defensively (including the forwards)

The problem: Was never good enough from the get go. Not tough enough on the back on the back-end, not enough compete from the forwards both in terms of back-check and battling along the walls. Totally disoriented at times not knowing who to cover and how to get the puck out. It was like they we neither playing a man-to-man style or a zone style, but some kind of odd mish-mash of pond hockey. A collapse game (rather than cover points) will not work for a team that does not actually want to block shots. Was it the coaching or the players, probably a combination of the two, but I tend to blame the players more. Only bailed out by great goal-tending most of the season.

The fix: Won't be easy. Structurally something has to get worked out. Priority number 1. Part of the fix will be Gardiner and Rielly simply get better (and stronger), they need to strength up. I think both made some strides as the season went on, but instead of young guys learning from the vets, they were pretty much being asked at an early stage of development to be the go to guys by the end of it. Doesn't say much for the vets. Hope the Leafs don't sacrifice either one of these guys in the build. Probably stuck with Phaneuf. If Phanuef was a really captain, he'd join that figure skating coach the Leafs hired to work on his skating, particularly his lack of explosive first step. That would show humility and leadership. Ideally would like to see him gone and a new captain, but that's not likely going to happen, so plan B has to be find a stud veteran somewhere (anywhere) to pair with one of the kids in the 1-2 slot and move Phanuef to 3-4 position with the other one of the kids. Gunner, Gleason, Franson and Ranger are all tradeable parts. Need some better two way wingers. Kadri has to improve. I think a full year with Bolland in the dressing room would help both him especially, and Bozak to some degree.

2. Offensively.

The problem: Good for most of the year, but tired down the stretch. More quality depth needed up front. I think the top line simply got tired. Overplayed, Olympics, plus 11-forward, 7-D line up. Not enough contribution from the bottom group. How Orr appeared in as many games as he did is beyond me. Bolland injury and Clarkson a bust did not go according to plan. Bodie was a nice surprise, but there simply wasn't enough of them. I think they really missed a guy like Leo Komarov. Chemistry on second line just didn't see to be there, which was unfortunate. The question there is, can the Leafs find the right guy to play with Lupul and Kadri to make that line really work like Montreal did by adding Vanek to their top line. Or does a trade or line-up shuffle happen.

The fix: More two-way forwards with compete and some scoring touch. A better attacking game that is better in terms of puck possession (shorter passes), ability to dump in AND RECOVER when required, and to cycle better. The Leafs' attack seemed pretty one dimensional this year, a lot of long passes that either hit the mark or often missed or cut off. On the upside, the defense (especially Gardiner and Rielly) really show signs of contributing to the offense.

3. Goal tending 

The problem: Bernier's injury. Reimer not much of a back-up under team as currently structured. Could he be good with a structured team, maybe? But he has some glaring weaknesses: goal hand, rebound control, puck handling and a lot of flopping around snow angel style. I think it would be best for the Leafs and Reimer if they parted ways and Leafs found a veteran back-up. I would sign one cheap and let the vet and MacIntyre battle for the job in camp.

The fix: a healthy and signed Bernier, and a decent back-up. Probably the easiest fix this team has.

4. The coaching

The problem: Somehow Carlyle system did not translate on the ice. I actually like Carlyle and tend to think the blame lies more on the players. I am not so sure, however, about all these assistant coaches. Gordon and Cronin have been there since Wilson. Then there is Farrish and Dennis. 

The fix: Whether Carlyle remains or not, I'd like to see some top notch players behind the Leafs bench. Assistant coaches that had a lot of NHL playoff experience. Guys who were in the trenches and no what it is like, who the players would say wow, I'd listen to that guy.  There have been some really great assistant coaches. Larry Robinson as a defensive coach. What about a guy like Pronger or someone like that? Look at Doug Jarvis with Boston and how well they perform down the middle of the ice, face-offs, defensively. Couldn't the Leafs find someone like that with a lot of NHL experience. Seems like every team in the NHL is putting former star or experienced alumi players into the mix, while the Leafs make its former stars into "ambassadors." And, prefer journeyman players or coaches, with the exception of Carlyle. I just question whether the players are really looking up to their coaches or listening to them.

5. The Management

The problem: A little early to assess Nonis at the helm. I still think Bolland was a good signing, not much you can do about an injury. The Clarkson signing, I think most liked it at the time. No one would have predicted he would have flopped so badly. I hang that more on Clarkson than Nonis. He performed like an $850,000 a year player instead of a $5 million one. On the positive side, there is no where to go on this one but up. If he could even perform next year like a $3 million player, that would be a huge improvement.
I think Nonis's big mistake was under assessing the trade deadline market this year and not improving the team with an extra forward and d-man. The Flyers picked up MacDonald from the Islanders, who's a pretty capable defensive guy. And, obvious there were a number of quality forwards that went for song.

The Fix: Nonis needs to find 2-3 upgrades up front and on defence, and sort out the whole coaching thing. Getting the goaltending situation stabilized should be his easiest fix. How he right's the ship over the next year will show what kind of GM he really is.

Conclusion: Due to cap era, long term signings and limited trade options, most of Leafs improvement will have to come from within. Some by grow and maturing of young players like Gardiner, Rielly, Kadri and Bernier. Some by getting a structured system that the players actually play to. Some by players rebounding from injuries or off-season, Bolland, Clarkson and to a degree Lupul. Some by Nonis replacing low compete players like Gunnerson, Kulimen, Franson, etc with higher compete players. 

 
I was thinking about starting a thread split out just like this, but you beat me to it and did a better job to boot.

I agree nearly 100% with your analysis up til the coaching and management parts.  You absolutely nail the offensive and defensive analysis IMO.  I also agree with your goaltending analysis except forget MacIntyre, get a proven backup.

Coaching: Carlyle is a huge problem and has to go.  All the coaches can go, in fact.  I have no problem bringing in an NHL vet as an assistant.  I am inclined more toward giving an up-and-comer a chance as head coach.

Management:  Most did not like the Clarkson signing.  Just the opposite.  Yes, no one could have imagined he'd be this terrible.

Gunnar and Kule are NOT low-compete players.

The other wild card for next year is that we had NO significant injuries this year on the D and outside of Bolland and Bozak, none with the forwards.  Can't expect that every year.

Overall, I think you got it about 80% right.  Good, thoughtful post.
 
I agree with most you have said, but Kulemin is a keeper. He is tough and should be third line on this team for sure. I would also bring Komarov back, this guy is a machine, and makes the opposition keep there heads up. We missed him big time .
 
The Leafs had roughly an 80% chance to make the playoffs mid March.  That figure had gone up and down since opening day. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
 
Now after seeing this team the whole year and their fate now sealed...what would you say was their real chance to make the playoffs on opening night given what you saw transpired?

Some may say "zero" and that is a valid answer since they didn't make the playoffs. 

Did we have a chance given the Bolland injury?  Given the Clarkson debacle?  Were we doomed from the outset?? 
 
Out of curiosity, has a team, in recent history, gone from 3d in the conference to out of the playoffs in a 15 game stretch to end a season? I just can't remember seeing this before.

Personally, I find this to be a much more embarrassing collapse than the 10 minutes of games 7 - this is honestly one for the ages it would seem... Unless anyone remembers something worse to any other team. 
 
hap_leaf said:
The Leafs had roughly an 80% chance to make the playoffs mid March.  That figure had gone up and down since opening day. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
 
Now after seeing this team the whole year and their fate now sealed...what would you say was their real chance to make the playoffs on opening night given what you saw transpired?

Some may say "zero" and that is a valid answer since they didn't make the playoffs. 

Did we have a chance given the Bolland injury?  Given the Clarkson debacle?  Were we doomed from the outset??

Take a look at last year to this year with Ottawa.  Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace.  A lot of the Leafs chances are truly good scoring plays but they just give up way too many shots.  Even if the Carlyle's "the scoring chances were equal" garbage, teams score on broken plays all of the time due to deflections or the goaltender just making a mistake.  You just can't make your goaltender make 30+ saves every single night and expect to be in the playoffs.  You can't.
 
L K said:
hap_leaf said:
The Leafs had roughly an 80% chance to make the playoffs mid March.  That figure had gone up and down since opening day. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
 
Now after seeing this team the whole year and their fate now sealed...what would you say was their real chance to make the playoffs on opening night given what you saw transpired?

Some may say "zero" and that is a valid answer since they didn't make the playoffs. 

Did we have a chance given the Bolland injury?  Given the Clarkson debacle?  Were we doomed from the outset??

Take a look at last year to this year with Ottawa.  Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace.  A lot of the Leafs chances are truly good scoring plays but they just give up way too many shots.  Even if the Carlyle's "the scoring chances were equal" garbage, teams score on broken plays all of the time due to deflections or the goaltender just making a mistake.  You just can't make your goaltender make 30+ saves every single night and expect to be in the playoffs.  You can't.

Yep:

BkyexLBCUAAqhnC.png


All received same total SV% this season.
 
Potvin29 said:
L K said:
hap_leaf said:
The Leafs had roughly an 80% chance to make the playoffs mid March.  That figure had gone up and down since opening day. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
 
Now after seeing this team the whole year and their fate now sealed...what would you say was their real chance to make the playoffs on opening night given what you saw transpired?

Some may say "zero" and that is a valid answer since they didn't make the playoffs. 

Did we have a chance given the Bolland injury?  Given the Clarkson debacle?  Were we doomed from the outset??

Take a look at last year to this year with Ottawa.  Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace.  A lot of the Leafs chances are truly good scoring plays but they just give up way too many shots.  Even if the Carlyle's "the scoring chances were equal" garbage, teams score on broken plays all of the time due to deflections or the goaltender just making a mistake.  You just can't make your goaltender make 30+ saves every single night and expect to be in the playoffs.  You can't.

Yep:

BkyexLBCUAAqhnC.png


All received same total SV% this season.

And if you do the division, the GA will translate into a much higher number of shots against for the Leafs and the Caps.  A goalie could have a .999 SV%, but if your team gives up a Googolplex of shots you are still going to end up with a very high GA.
 
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal. 
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Potvin29 said:
L K said:
hap_leaf said:
The Leafs had roughly an 80% chance to make the playoffs mid March.  That figure had gone up and down since opening day. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
 
Now after seeing this team the whole year and their fate now sealed...what would you say was their real chance to make the playoffs on opening night given what you saw transpired?

Some may say "zero" and that is a valid answer since they didn't make the playoffs. 

Did we have a chance given the Bolland injury?  Given the Clarkson debacle?  Were we doomed from the outset??

Take a look at last year to this year with Ottawa.  Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace.  A lot of the Leafs chances are truly good scoring plays but they just give up way too many shots.  Even if the Carlyle's "the scoring chances were equal" garbage, teams score on broken plays all of the time due to deflections or the goaltender just making a mistake.  You just can't make your goaltender make 30+ saves every single night and expect to be in the playoffs.  You can't.

Yep:

BkyexLBCUAAqhnC.png


All received same total SV% this season.

And if you do the division, the GA will translate into a much higher number of shots against for the Leafs and the Caps.  A goalie could have a .999 SV%, but if your team gives up a Googolplex of shots you are still going to end up with a very high GA.

Yes, that's what that is showing.  The teams received the same SV% but Toronto and Washington gave up a lot more shots against, hence the much higher goals against numbers.
 
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal.

I don't disagree with the last two points. They need significantly better defenders and bottom six forwards. I question the extent to which those are "fixable" in any real sense this off-season but I can't disagree with better team = better results.
 
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal.

I don't disagree with the last two points. They need significantly better defenders and bottom six forwards. I question the extent to which those are "fixable" in any real sense this off-season but I can't disagree with better team = better results.

Well we certainly agree there.  I'm not sure that this team is fixable.  That cap crunch pretty much freezes this team as what it is:  A team with 3 playoff wins in the last 5 years (yes I know it's longer but I'm focusing on the timeline of this team/Burke).

The cap is going to be somewhere between 68-71M next year.  That gives the Leafs ~20 million.  Just bringing back this team gives them 4-6million to make improvements.  This team is pretty much locked in because Nonis gave so many guys 4+ million dollar contracts.

We have Clarkson making 5 million with 4th line level play.  We have Gleason making 4 million as a 5/6 defenseman.  We have Lupul making 5 million and not being able to stay in the lineup half the year.

I'm expecting either a tear-down of a decent chunk of the team (4-5 new forwards, 2 new defensemen, 1 goaltender) or this team is going to stand completely still with 1-2 minor moves and a new coach.

I'm not sure that either of those moves makes the team significantly better.  Different but not necessarily better. 

I really don't see a scenario where Tim L. has this team enter next season without make a pretty drastic change.
 
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal.

I don't disagree with the last two points. They need significantly better defenders and bottom six forwards. I question the extent to which those are "fixable" in any real sense this off-season but I can't disagree with better team = better results.

Well... the bottom six forwards COULD have been better this season had Carlyle not dressed Orr and McClaren so much this year.  Holland and Ashton should have been fixtures.  Hopefully firing Carlyle and bringing in a coach who will actually play younger players in that role will help.  If we can get Komarov back, that will also help.  It seems like our team speed was really impacted by losing him, Frattin, MacArthur, and Grabovski.  Raymond was the only guy with speed that came in. 

Regarding the defence... that will be tougher to improve.  We do have quite a few two-way defensemen developing (Percy, Finn), and some shutdown types who can actually skate (Granberg, Knodel, MacWilliam).  I'd like to see them fighting it out for some spots while we trade Franson and Gleason (good luck with that).
 
Coco-puffs said:
Well... the bottom six forwards COULD have been better this season had Carlyle not dressed Orr and McClaren so much this year.  Holland and Ashton should have been fixtures.  Hopefully firing Carlyle and bringing in a coach who will actually play younger players in that role will help.  If we can get Komarov back, that will also help.  It seems like our team speed was really impacted by losing him, Frattin, MacArthur, and Grabovski.  Raymond was the only guy with speed that came in. 

Yeah, I remain a little skeptical that the difference between a really good 4th line and a bad one like the Leafs used this year is something to get too worked up about. I think the bigger problem the Leafs faced this year is that the third line, which at times was an odd mish mash of guys like Bodie, Smith, Clarkson, McClement and Kulemin, was so bad. Some of that is attributable to injury and some to guys like Clarkson just being so flat-out bad.

Coco-puffs said:
Regarding the defence... that will be tougher to improve.  We do have quite a few two-way defensemen developing (Percy, Finn), and some shutdown types who can actually skate (Granberg, Knodel, MacWilliam).  I'd like to see them fighting it out for some spots while we trade Franson and Gleason (good luck with that).

Obviously there are reasons to be optimistic about some of the young defenders the Leafs have in the system but I think that, looking forward, the Leafs need to be as much about identifying who doesn't fit as who does. Franson and Gleason are obvious points of improvement but I don't know that the kind of improvement we're talking about can be limited to replacing #4 and #5 guys like those two. I think the Leafs are going to have to seriously examine whether or not a top 4 of Gunnar, Phaneuf, Rielly and Gardiner is workable going forward.
 
Coco-puffs said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal.

I don't disagree with the last two points. They need significantly better defenders and bottom six forwards. I question the extent to which those are "fixable" in any real sense this off-season but I can't disagree with better team = better results.

Well... the bottom six forwards COULD have been better this season had Carlyle not dressed Orr and McClaren so much this year.  Holland and Ashton should have been fixtures.  Hopefully firing Carlyle and bringing in a coach who will actually play younger players in that role will help.  If we can get Komarov back, that will also help.  It seems like our team speed was really impacted by losing him, Frattin, MacArthur, and Grabovski.  Raymond was the only guy with speed that came in. 

Regarding the defence... that will be tougher to improve.  We do have quite a few two-way defensemen developing (Percy, Finn), and some shutdown types who can actually skate (Granberg, Knodel, MacWilliam).  I'd like to see them fighting it out for some spots while we trade Franson and Gleason (good luck with that).
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
L K said:
Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal. 

Just so everyone knows Ashton has not scored a goal in 47 games in the NHL. He is half way to Orr current record. Just saying. (Stir the Pot) .

As for Gleason, I thought he was one of the better D-men we have had since coming to TO. I Know everyone here is high on Gardiner. Even know he can skate out of problems, he causes just as many with stupid plays.

Franson will be gone, 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Reimer gone 2nd or 3rd pick

Raymond will be gone, (I hope not)
Bolland will want to much money (I sign him for 3 - 3.5 mil)
Kulimen will like be gone, which is too bad.

Kadri will be the strange play, he is a talent but lazy IMO.
Lupul - most people want to trade him (I hope not)

Clarkson - we are stuck with him, pray for a better season next year.

Phanauf - our captain. IMO need to play around 20 min that is it. He is tired or injured. I wish he was nasty.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Coco-puffs said:
Well... the bottom six forwards COULD have been better this season had Carlyle not dressed Orr and McClaren so much this year.  Holland and Ashton should have been fixtures.  Hopefully firing Carlyle and bringing in a coach who will actually play younger players in that role will help.  If we can get Komarov back, that will also help.  It seems like our team speed was really impacted by losing him, Frattin, MacArthur, and Grabovski.  Raymond was the only guy with speed that came in. 

Yeah, I remain a little skeptical that the difference between a really good 4th line and a bad one like the Leafs used this year is something to get too worked up about. I think the bigger problem the Leafs faced this year is that the third line, which at times was an odd mish mash of guys like Bodie, Smith, Clarkson, McClement and Kulemin, was so bad. Some of that is attributable to injury and some to guys like Clarkson just being so flat-out bad.

I wouldn't disagree that the marginal difference between face-punchers and kids or borderline NHLers is that decisive on its own. But if it's the difference between a 4th line you can play 5 minutes a night and 10 minutes a night, don't you think that could make the top 6 more effective? A lot of those guys looked gassed over the last few weeks.
 
mr grieves said:
I wouldn't disagree that the marginal difference between face-punchers and kids or borderline NHLers is that decisive on its own. But if it's the difference between a 4th line you can play 5 minutes a night and 10 minutes a night, don't you think that could make the top 6 more effective? A lot of those guys looked gassed over the last few weeks.

I mean, I'm open to the idea but realistically you're talking about shaving a minute a night off of the top line at most and a lot of the most effective players in the league were also the guys with the highest TOI per game(and I don't think the difference between those guys and everyone else is fitness level).

To me it seems like the real optimal use of the 4th line isn't to stock it with people like Holland and Ashton but rather have a really good group of PK'ers so guys like Van Riemsdyk or Bozak don't have to do that in addition to their first line scoring duties.
 
Only a couple things:
slapshot said:
2. Offensively.

The problem: Good for most of the year, but tired down the stretch. More quality depth needed up front. I think the top line simply got tired. Overplayed, Olympics, plus 11-forward, 7-D line up. Not enough contribution from the bottom group. How Orr appeared in as many games as he did is beyond me.

I think Carlyle's mismanagement of the 4th line really contributed to this.  Carlyle was almost running just 3 lines in a lot of games this season, with Orr/MacLaren warming the bench for no reason I can even imagine.  Combine that with a system that involves a lot of running around, and a lot of icings, and you have exhausted forwards.  That tends to equal hesitant 1st periods and god-awful, sluggish 3rds.

slapshot said:
3. Goal tending 

The problem: Bernier's injury. Reimer not much of a back-up under team as currently structured. Could he be good with a structured team, maybe?

I say it a lot, but Reimer is a good #1 goalie and a terrible backup.  I'm pretty confident he's gone over the summer, and I hope they get a good price because I think he'll do well with a fresh start somewhere where he'll face a more normal 30 shots a night and a little less pressure.  He'll be great.

slapshot said:
5. The Management

The problem: A little early to assess Nonis at the helm. I still think Bolland was a good signing, not much you can do about an injury. The Clarkson signing, I think most liked it at the time. No one would have predicted he would have flopped so badly.

The "David Clarkson signs with the Leafs" thread was actually pretty negative.  I don't think anyone knew it would be this bad, but the reaction was far from positive.

I do want to see Clarkson under a new coach and system.  Hopefully he can find a line where he clicks.  I'd like to see him spend more time in front of the net.

Also, just in general, I like Kulemin and Gunnarson.  Gunnar is a team-leading +12 despite facing some very tough competition, and is +9 ahead of his partner Phaneuf.  Kulemin has been sturdy all season despite being used as Clarkson's understudy most of the time.  He clicked well on the 2nd line when he had the chance, and he has fewer PIM than Kessel.

Anyway, I think it's telling that people agree on so much about what went wrong.  We don't agree on everything, obviously, but more than I would ordinarily expect.  I'm trying to see that as a silver lining: if the problems are fairly simple to identify, maybe the chances of fixing them are high?

Huge summer for Nonis.  Dude has his work cut out for him.
 

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