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Stars vs. Maple Leafs - Dec. 18th, 7:30pm - SN, TSN 1050

CarltonTheBear

CarltonTheBear

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DAL_light.svg
​
TOR_light.svg
Dallas Stars
19-11-0, 38 pts​
vs.​
Toronto Maple Leafs
19-10-2, 40 pts​
Projected Line-ups​
Robertson-Hintz-Johnston
Marchment-Duchene-Stankoven
Benn-Steel-Dadonov
Back-Bourque-Blackwell

Bichsel-Heiskanen
Lindell-Lyubushkin
Smith-Lundkvist

Oettinger​
Nylander-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Pacioretty
McMann-Domi-Robertson
Lorentz-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Myers
McCabe-Tanev
OEL-Timmins

Woll​
Scratches​
Thomas Harley​
​
Pontus Holmberg
Connor Dewar
Simon Benoit​
Injuries​
Thomas Harley - Illness - Questionable
Matt Dumba - Upper Body - Injured Reserve
Tyler Seguin - Hip - Injured Reserve​
​
Anthony Stolarz - Lower Body - Injured Reserve
Jani Hakanpaa - Knee - Injured Reserve
Calle Jarnkrok - Lower Body - Injured Reserve​
Game Notes​
DAL
-James Oettinger (16-7-0, 2.43 GAA, .913 Sv%) will likely start for the Stars
TOR
-Joseph Woll (8-4-0, 2.24 GAA, .918 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
-Matthews, Marner, and Nylander were all together on the top line at practice on Tuesday. The trio have played together in short bursts throughout the season but this would be the first time they'll potentially begin a game together
Streams​
 
I'm looking forward to seeing if L3 with Robertson can continue with their momentum..... especially with superstar Brother on the ice.
 
Questions for every forward line against a good team in Dallas:
Nylander-Matthews-Marner - will they go to the net?
Knies-Tavares-Pacioretty - can they repeat a good performance from the last game?
McMann-Domi-Robertson - can they repeat a good performance from the last game?
Lorentz-Kampf-Reaves - How does Kampf look? Can Reaves step up his game to justify Dewar & Holmberg in the stands?
 
cw said:
Nylander-Matthews-Marner - will they go to the net?
Click to expand...
I know the coach gently ribbed them for it, but it's pretty funny to call out Nylander and Matthews for not going to net when their career heatmaps are red blobs of death right in front of the goalie. It's a bit fair about Marner, but he pretty consistently gets the puck into the slot for chances. Really it's a matter of whether or not 3 line drivers can figure out roles or whether they're just so good they interchange seamlessly to discombobulate defenses.

I think we see something similar to what we were seeing in the recent run of powerplays: Marner and Nylander with the puck, swirling in the zone, while Matthews sets up weak-side ambushes. And if coverage tries to glue to Matthews strictly, then Nylander has plenty of space to make them regret those choices.
 
herman said:
I know the coach gently ribbed them for it, but it's pretty funny to call out Nylander and Matthews for not going to net when their career heatmaps are red blobs of death right in front of the goalie. It's a bit fair about Marner, but he pretty consistently gets the puck into the slot for chances. Really it's a matter of whether or not 3 line drivers can figure out roles or whether they're just so good they interchange seamlessly to discombobulate defenses.

I think we see something similar to what we were seeing in the recent run of powerplays: Marner and Nylander with the puck, swirling in the zone, while Matthews sets up weak-side ambushes. And if coverage tries to glue to Matthews strictly, then Nylander has plenty of space to make them regret those choices.
Click to expand...
I must be looking at different 'heatmaps' or maybe they're not perfect or I/Berube are interpreting them wrong ...

These top 9 Leafs forwards do not seem as keen on going to the front of the net
Marner

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Robertson

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Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Domi

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Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Nylander

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Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Unlike Nylander, the other three are not as allergic to bruising and will block shots or throw some hits


These top 9 Leafs forwards seem to get to the front of the net
Tavares

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Knies

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Matthews

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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McMann

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Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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Pacioretty

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Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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They generally seem to reflect what I've seen.
Am I reading them wrong?

If Matthews sets up in his 'office', then all three of that line are shooting from the periphery. With no one in front of the net, the goalie is going to see those shots and stop them. I think that is Berube's concern. To me, I don't think he's being unfair expressing it.
 
cw said:
They generally seem to reflect what I've seen.
Am I reading them wrong?
Click to expand...
I think you might be focusing too much on this season - if you go back through Nylander's history, for instance, you'll see a lot of years where there's a big red blob right at the top of the crease. I'd certainly consider that the front of the net.
 
Broken record alert... I have been hoping to see the core 4 over 3 lines and this lineup has 3 of the 4 on one line. I have a hard time comprehending how this could be beneficial to the team as a whole. This is a good team let's prop up our role guys and utilize everyone. Let's get everyone going and feel like they're contributing. Efficiency is a beautiful thing. $37M line...

Do we want these guys playing 22 minutes a game in December?

We have a better style of hockey now let's get some balanced lines!
 
cabber24 said:
Broken record alert... I have been hoping to see the core 4 over 3 lines and this lineup has 3 of the 4 on one line. I have a hard time comprehending how this could be beneficial to the team as a whole. This is a good team let's prop up our role guys and utilize everyone. Let's get everyone going and feel like they're contributing. Efficiency is a beautiful thing. $37M line...

Do we want these guys playing 22 minutes a game in December?

We have a better style of hockey now let's get some balanced lines!
Click to expand...
And being that it's December this is a good time to try this out. Boston did it for years with huge success. I don't think it will last but it will all depend on how the other lines do.
 
cw said:
They generally seem to reflect what I've seen.
Am I reading them wrong?
Click to expand...
busta has the long and short of it. I was referring to their careers, not necessarily this season specifically when they've been largely grouped with the aforementioned net-front bodies on their respective lines.

In any case, I understand where Berube is coming from regarding this power-line; they won't have that complementary F1, net-front digger to do all their scutwork for them. Matthews and Nylander are usually the mid-range lurkers because they actually have shots and deceptive releases that beat goalies clean with some regularity and one or two of them will need to default to ugly puck, instead of waiting for their sauce to be served.

I'm a big proponent of playing to your strengths in hockey and in life. I'm not going to expect or ask Nylander to throw hits, or block shots in the slot, and I'm not going to ask Marner to park his butt in front of the goalie; that's like adding a snow plow to a Ferrari. But if they can swing through the slot perfectly timed with a low-to-high play from the point for high tips, or cycle through the slot using their edgework and puck handling for backdoor looks, that's net front enough to do plenty of damage without eating crosschecks all night.

If it works, it can be stupid fun, because then opponents need to game plan against two different teams.
 
Worth noting that Nylander's 5-on-5 slot area heat map doesn't look that far off from say McMann's. The powerplay time skews things a little as he isn't exactly designed to be shooting from front of the net area (although of course going there more wouldn't hurt). At 5-on-5 though Nylander is still shooting plenty from the slot, but he's also shooting a lot from everywhere because he has the find of shot that can beat a goalie from anywhere. Versus McMann who's shot is good sure but he isn't going to beat goalies cleanly nearly as often so will naturally have less shots from the outside.
 
Guilt Trip said:
And being that it's December this is a good time to try this out. Boston did it for years with huge success. I don't think it will last but it will all depend on how the other lines do.
Click to expand...
I think this is a good opportunity to see what the other lines can do. I'm not entirely sure that I love Knies-Matthews-Marner but I don't think Knies-Tavares-Nylander is the right line either. I think Paccioretty fits well with Tavares because it's two slower but smart players.

That Domi-McMann-Robertson line looked really good against a bad Buffalo team. I want to see it for a few games against better teams (like Dallas)

Holmberg and Dewar should both be in the lineup over Reaves. Guys are back healthy. It's time to put the useless horse out to pasture.
 
L K said:
I think this is a good opportunity to see what the other lines can do. I'm not entirely sure that I love Knies-Matthews-Marner but I don't think Knies-Tavares-Nylander is the right line either. I think Paccioretty fits well with Tavares because it's two slower but smart players.
Click to expand...
My general feeling so far this season is that Knies should always be with Matthews, and Pacioretty or McMann always with Tavares. Patches when the RW is Nylander on an offensive line, McMann when Marner is the RW on a more high end match-up line. I'm all for doing weird experiments right now, especially when things aren't exactly clicking super perfectly, but I feel like that's how things will eventually land.
 
There's nothing wrong with having a default, balanced deployment, that flips to specialist lines once the game state requires adjustment.

Flipping to this 4D che$$ line + 3 crash lines is just the kind of fun, goofy deployment that can break something on the other side. Or flip to a deeper spread attach over a top-9 to overmatch an opposing third line that's garbage.
 
bustaheims said:
I think you might be focusing too much on this season - if you go back through Nylander's history, for instance, you'll see a lot of years where there's a big red blob right at the top of the crease. I'd certainly consider that the front of the net.
Click to expand...
You see that in 2022-23 - only one of his last four seasons

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Career and Game by Game Stats and Shot Maps For Each NHL Player
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herman said:
There's nothing wrong with having a default, balanced deployment, that flips to specialist lines once the game state requires adjustment.

Flipping to this 4D che$$ line + 3 crash lines is just the kind of fun, goofy deployment that can break something on the other side. Or flip to a deeper spread attach over a top-9 to overmatch an opposing third line that's garbage.
Click to expand...

I feel it's a disservice to 88,34,16 to expect them to play like a 4th line defense first line. While 16 and 34 a very good defensively, that trio is an offensive nightmare to defend against.
 
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