The Magic Number

[Justin]

Conventionally, the magic number of points needed to get into the playoffs is 92 points. If the magic number is 92 points in an 82 game season, then a 48 game season would require about 54 points to make the playoffs.

The Leafs were 24-19-5 after 48 games last season, good for 53 points. This time around we have a healthy Reimer, JVR, and hopefully improved youngsters (Kadri, Frattin, Gardiner). I'm not ready to write this team off. We can make the playoffs.

 

[SchenNeuf]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season.   

 

[Bender]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I can easily see how we pull ahead of Buffalo and Ottawa. Jersey also lost their best player.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't think NJ is that far ahead of the Leafs either. - They're vulnerable I think.

 

[Jalili]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I can easily see how we pull ahead of Buffalo and Ottawa. Jersey also lost their best player.

I think by the end of last season most people considered Kovalchuk to be a better player than Parise, so that's not necessarily the case. But still, a big loss for their team.

 

[Kin]

With fewer games for the good teams to separate themselves from the bad, I think you probably want to aim for a slightly higher PPG pace than the bare minimum established over the last few years.

 

[Fanatic]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

This is the earliest call I have seen for Tank Nation.

 

[Redleaf]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

You have to remember under the new CBA, ALL teams that miss the playoffs now have a chance at number 1. Yikes.

 

[Kin]

You have to remember under the new CBA, ALL teams that miss the playoffs now have a chance at number 1. Yikes.

That doesn't necessarily mean that any particular place to finish will see a significantly lower chance of getting the #1 pick outside of finishing dead last. In the NBA model, which apparently the new NHL lottery will be based on, the best few teams in the lottery have something like a 2% chance collectively of winning while the 2-5 teams chances stay pretty much the same.

 

[Zee]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I don't think you can say definitely that any teams are a lock.  Teams can get hot for short stints, if the Leafs put together a good 10-15 games to start the season you never know.  Who's to say that one of the teams you listed doesn't have poor performances or injuries to key players?  It's a 48 game sprint, anything can happen.

 

[Kin]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I don't think you can say definitely that any teams are a lock.  Teams can get hot for short stints, if the Leafs put together a good 10-15 games to start the season you never know.  Who's to say that one of the teams you listed doesn't have poor performances or injuries to key players?  It's a 48 game sprint, anything can happen.

It's not like, though, the 94-95 season was some sort of nutty situation where the results had nothing to do with how good the individual teams were or what had happened the year before or what would happen the year after. 48 games injects more randomness into the process but good teams are still good teams.

 

[SchenNeuf]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I don't think you can say definitely that any teams are a lock.  Teams can get hot for short stints, if the Leafs put together a good 10-15 games to start the season you never know.  Who's to say that one of the teams you listed doesn't have poor performances or injuries to key players?  It's a 48 game sprint, anything can happen.

The suggestion that a shortened season somehow evens the playing field between good and crappy teams is absurd.  At the end of the day, good teams are still good teams and crappy teams are still crappy teams.  Unfortunately for us, the on ice product has not significantly improved since last year. 

 

[Redleaf]

You have to remember under the new CBA, ALL teams that miss the playoffs now have a chance at number 1. Yikes.

That doesn't necessarily mean that any particular place to finish will see a significantly lower chance of getting the #1 pick outside of finishing dead last. In the NBA model, which apparently the new NHL lottery will be based on, the best few teams in the lottery have something like a 2% chance collectively of winning while the 2-5 teams chances stay pretty much the same.

Good to know. Wasn't really sure how it would work.

 

[hap_leaf]

I just don't see how we finish ahead of any of Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, NY Rangers, Jersey, Washington, Ottawa, Buffalo or Carolina. If Florida gets Luongo, add them to the list as well.  If Price plays well, the Habs will likely be ahead of us as well.  We'll be fighting for last in the conference with the Isles and Jets.  If it means getting the first overall pick at the draft, I'd be willing to watch this team tank....at least it would be for a shortened season. 

I don't think you can say definitely that any teams are a lock.  Teams can get hot for short stints, if the Leafs put together a good 10-15 games to start the season you never know.  Who's to say that one of the teams you listed doesn't have poor performances or injuries to key players?  It's a 48 game sprint, anything can happen.

The suggestion that a shortened season somehow evens the playing field between good and crappy teams is absurd.  At the end of the day, good teams are still good teams and crappy teams are still crappy teams.  Unfortunately for us, the on ice product has not significantly improved since last year.

At the end of the day, the shorter you make the season, the more randomness can occur.  This should be shown most prominently at the bubble of making the playoffs.  Which is great for a team like the Leafs.

I agree with Bettman that 48 games is the bare minimum that you can expect some reasonable results where the the best teams will finish higher in the standings.