The Stretch Run

[L K]

Obviously things in the Eastern Conference are fairly bottled up.  1st place in the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions are probably locked up at this point given the lead that Boston and Pittsburgh have in their divisions and the overall quality of their teams. 

What isn't so clear is the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.  The new format changes things up to guarantee 3 teams from each division make the playoffs with two additional wild-card teams.  Given that structure there are likely about 10 teams that still should have some aspect of playoff aspirations.  I partially limited to 10 teams because it's a nice number, and I figured Carolina at 63 points is probably done for the year given that their team really didn't register as a playoff threat to start the year.  Meanwhile, I did keep Ottawa in the picture given their performance last year and the variety of players who could get hot and score their way into the postseason. 

Keeping an eye on the scoreboard is definitely something I have started to do since the post-Olympic return, especially after the Leafs faltered in first few games back.

If all teams were to win out at this point, the Leafs would wind up with the 1st wild-card spot.  Importantly, they have 10 games left against the teams that still have a shot at an Eastern Conference playoff spot, but 6 of them are on the road. 

They also have 12 games left of their 18 against teams that are currently in a playoff position, however, at least 8 of those are against Eastern Conference teams and only 1 game is against Boston.  They are about to head out on a difficult 5 game road trip, including 4 playoff teams and the 3 California teams out west.

Washington has the hardest stretch to catch up to a playoff spot with only 4 games against Eastern rivals but having to play 12 games against currently playoff teams, with 10 coming against the West and Boston/Pittsburgh.

New York likely has the easiest road to the playoffs with only 6 games against currently playoff seeded teams.

Colour coding:  Home games - White and Yellow (Rival)
                      Away games - Red and Orange (Rival)

 

[Jalili]

We'll see how it shakes down, but my fingers are crossed for a Leafs/Habs 1st round matchup.

Here's hoping Tampa continues to fade down the stretch.

Good analysis by the way.

 

[nutman]

Nice job LK. I think I would rather play playoff teams this time of year. Teams that are out tend not to have as much pressure on them and, do a lot of upsetting.

 

[proteus2000]

Nice graph. I'm not too worried about the Rags, anticipate (especially with their easy schedule) that they will be locked in the top 3 in the metro division.

2 of the Leafs/Habs/Lightning/Wings will get a top 3 spot in the Atlantic...huge as they will avoid the Bruins/Pens in the 1st round.

Obviously a playoff spot isn't guaranteed and they will need to earn it. Scoreboard watching at its finest coming up!

 

[moon111]

I want to see heads rolled, so if it takes missing the playoffs to do it, I'm all for it.  Absolutely hate being a in-between team.

 

[Redleaf]

I want to see heads rolled, so if it takes missing the playoffs to do it, I'm all for it.  Absolutely hate being a in-between team.

I'm not sure heads need to roll. I consider this club to be in the rebuilding stage still. As such, I think we all need to be patient with this group. Nonis has shown that's exactly what he plans on doing. If there's a deal out there that makes sense, and is youth for youth, then he'll pull the trigger, but I can't see him trading away youth for veterans for a shot at winning the cup next year. This team simple isn't ready to do that yet.

 

[Highlander]

If you where at the bottom and heading to the top you will be in between for a season or two.  We now have a core of very good young players, add a few parts and let the chemisty grow and presto?no more in between team but a contender. I really wonder if we had not collapsed in Game 7 and beat Boston last year??how far these boys would have gone.

 

[Jalili]

I'm not sure heads need to roll. I consider this club to be in the rebuilding stage still. As such, I think we all need to be patient with this group. Nonis has shown that's exactly what he plans on doing. If there's a deal out there that makes sense, and is youth for youth, then he'll pull the trigger, but I can't see him trading away youth for veterans for a shot at winning the cup next year. This team simple isn't ready to do that yet.

I agree with what you're saying, but wouldn't go so far as to say the team is still rebuilding. That period is over I think. The prospect pool is actually comparatively weak when stacked next to a lot of other teams.

The good news is that the team's core is still a young group and aren't in a position like, say Boston, whose window of opportunity to win is rapidly closing. And with the exception of a certain someone, the Leafs have locked up their core players long-term to deals that are pretty favourable to the team.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm not sure heads need to roll. I consider this club to be in the rebuilding stage still. As such, I think we all need to be patient with this group. Nonis has shown that's exactly what he plans on doing. If there's a deal out there that makes sense, and is youth for youth, then he'll pull the trigger, but I can't see him trading away youth for veterans for a shot at winning the cup next year. This team simple isn't ready to do that yet.

I agree with what you're saying, but wouldn't go so far as to say the team is still rebuilding. That period is over I think. The prospect pool is actually comparatively weak when stacked next to a lot of other teams.

That's a contradiction. How can the rebuilding process be over when you just said the pool of prospects is still weak?

 

[Jalili]

I'm not sure heads need to roll. I consider this club to be in the rebuilding stage still. As such, I think we all need to be patient with this group. Nonis has shown that's exactly what he plans on doing. If there's a deal out there that makes sense, and is youth for youth, then he'll pull the trigger, but I can't see him trading away youth for veterans for a shot at winning the cup next year. This team simple isn't ready to do that yet.

I agree with what you're saying, but wouldn't go so far as to say the team is still rebuilding. That period is over I think. The prospect pool is actually comparatively weak when stacked next to a lot of other teams.

That's a contradiction. How can the rebuilding process be over when you just said the pool of prospects is still weak?

It's a cyclical process. Players that were at one point prominent prospects in the organization have since "graduated" to the NHL.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm not sure heads need to roll. I consider this club to be in the rebuilding stage still. As such, I think we all need to be patient with this group. Nonis has shown that's exactly what he plans on doing. If there's a deal out there that makes sense, and is youth for youth, then he'll pull the trigger, but I can't see him trading away youth for veterans for a shot at winning the cup next year. This team simple isn't ready to do that yet.

I agree with what you're saying, but wouldn't go so far as to say the team is still rebuilding. That period is over I think. The prospect pool is actually comparatively weak when stacked next to a lot of other teams.

That's a contradiction. How can the rebuilding process be over when you just said the pool of prospects is still weak?

It's a cyclical process. Players that were at one point prominent prospects in the organization have since "graduated" to the NHL.

I get that, but the rebuild shouldn't be considered over because the first wave of picks are now prospects and NHL players.

 

[Kin]

I get that, but the rebuild shouldn't be considered over because the first wave of picks are now prospects and NHL players.

If it didn't, you'd be assuming a perpetual state of rebuilding for every team.

 

[freer]

I am really not sure what people's problem with the team is. We are one steady defense men from being a very dangerous team. We currently have excellent goal tending. We currently have 6 players who will finish with 20 + goals, with the possibilty of three with 30+ goals. We are currently 12 games over .500 . Whether or not you like the new format. In the last 22 games we missed getting points only in 4 of them. Which it the best in the NHL over that period. The second highest points player is Kessel.

 

[iwas11in67]

Anaheim has 2 days off before they play the Leafs. We have 1 day off plus the travel.
Next night  we play San Jose who have 2 days off as well.
Then we play in LA and they have 2 days off.

Three very hard games against rested opponents.
If we can get 2 out of 6 points I'd be happy.

 

[bakeapples]

Hopefully the stretch run does not become the stench run on the upcoming "road of death".

 

[drummond]

I am cautiously optimistic about upcoming road trip. The Leafs have a tendency to play well against top western teams. Most stinkers are against lowsy Eastern teams such as Buffalo, Florida, Columbus, Islanders. They can beat one of California teams and drag the other into OT. That?s 3 out of 6 possible points. Just keep .500 hockey and we are fine.

 

[L K]

Like most years creating space down the stretch is never easy.  10 games played by the 10 teams fighting for playoffs spots and the record is 7-1-2.

Montreal's loss was a big one though as it opens a shot for the Leafs to control their destiny to take an Atlantic division playoff spot.  Similarly, they did gain a point on Tampa due to a shoot-out loss to the Bruins.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

They'll have a much better chance if they can play out West, like they did in the first period of last night's contest. They were extremely aggressive last night and controlled the play.

We've beat Anaheim already, LA also? I forget, but this team is capable of beating top teams IMO.

 

[Redleaf]

Like most years creating space down the stretch is never easy.  10 games played by the 10 teams fighting for playoffs spots and the record is 7-1-2.

Montreal's loss was a big one though as it opens a shot for the Leafs to control their destiny to take an Atlantic division playoff spot.  Similarly, they did gain a point on Tampa due to a shoot-out loss to the Bruins.

These 'control their own destiny' opportunities never pan out for the Leafs. I'm not pinning my hopes on a higher place finish then where they sit right now. Let's just cross our fingers they make the playoffs, and everything after that is gravy.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

I want to see heads rolled, so if it takes missing the playoffs to do it, I'm all for it.  Absolutely hate being a in-between team.

To ask for heads to roll now is unfair to both Nonis and Carlyle who have had to deal with having crappy lineups for the past 10 years.  True, the Leafs lack the skill set and personnel to compete with Anaheim, Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, but the Leafs do have the ability to make some noise in the playoffs.

By not making any moves at the trade deadline it shows Nonis actually cares about the future of the organization.  Sure he could have got a top player or two that would have helped the Leafs take a run at the cup, but at what expense?  Making trades such as those gives the teams short term success but also creates long term instability.  Depending on the matchups I truly believe the Leafs can make it to the third round, second for sure, so we want to fire Nonis and/or Carlyle for improving the team from last season???  I want to give Nonis the opportunity to see what he can do to improve the team during the off season, and base his employment status on those actions.