#TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?

[mr grieves]

Yes, I think, they are.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-10>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

	Current	On Pace	Proj.	vs. 2015-16
SF	343 (1st)	2,813 (1st)	n/a	2,517 (6th)
SCF	93 (2nd)	763 (1st)	n/a	498 (19th)
Sh%	8.5% (20)	8.5% (24)	8.8% (15)	7.6% (30)
GF	29 (10th)	238 (4th)	248 (3rd)	198 (28th)
SA	318 (25th)	2,608 (28)	n/a	2,501 (21)
SCA	78 (24th)	640 (29)	n/a	504 (13)
Sv%	.887 (26)	.887 (30)	.908 (15)	.904 (23rd)
GA........	37 (28th)......	287 (30).......	240 (24)......	246 (24th)......

Messed up the table, so one line is missing. Goal differential:
Current: -8 (25th) => Pace: -49 (29th) => Proj: +8 (16th) => 15/16: -49 (29th)

Pace assumes the percentages (shooting, saving) don't change while Projected assumes they settle at league average (15th ranked team last year). SCF and SCA are 5v5, but otherwise the stats are 'all situations.'

Think I might do this every ten games or so to see how the team's coming along.

===
UPDATED: to include games 11-20 in the pace & projections...

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

..................	Current...............	Pace...................	Projected............	vs. 2015-16........
SF	679 (4th)	2,651 (1st)	n/a	2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF	183 (1st)	715 (1st)	n/a	498 (19th)
Sh%	9.7% (7th)	9.7% (6th)	8.8% (avg)	7.6% (30th)
GF	66 (T-3rd)	258 (2nd)	233 (7th)	191 (28th)
SA	698 (29th)	2,726 (30th)	n/a	2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA	165 (29th)	644 (29th)	n/a	504 (13th)
Sv%	.904 (22nd)	.904 (23rd)	.908 (avg)	.904 (23rd)
GA	66 (27th)	262 (30th)	251 (29th)	240 (24th)
DIFF.	-1 (14th)	-4 (17th)	-17 (20th)	-49 (29th)

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I've been subtly trying to beat this drum too, I think they're going to be a bubble team this year.

The injection of talent they've had this season is unprecedented, it's unlike any other team transformation I can remember from one season to the next.

 

[Kaberle15]

In other years (or GM/Coach) they would be Faithfull to the Vets like Laich, Greening, Michalek... The way they demoted than all to keep the youth playing was unprecedented.

Some few adjusts left yet, but overall on the right track... and as the Kids adapt to the pace of the NHL, a bottom 5 is expected, anything other than that would be a very good surprise.

 

[mr grieves]

Except, based on how they've started, I don't think a bottom 5 is very likely.

 

[Kin]

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

 

[jonlleafs]

It's a new era!  It's exciting!

 

[mr grieves]

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

 

[Kin]

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Wait, are you saying the rookies will hit a wall?  Has Matthews already hit the wall?  ;D

 

[mr grieves]

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Yeah, they're way out ahead -- with the best in the league and on pace for a remarkable number of shots and chances -- in terms of shots and chances for, and I'd imagine the rest of the league will soon tighten up, pushing that down. I expect they'll fall, and am curious to see how far...

I also expect they'll improve a bit at defense -- with a terrible roster, Babcock got the 15-16 team to be perfectly mediocre at limiting chances against -- so that might mitigate the decline in offense.

 

[McGarnagle]

I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat. On the optimistic side, the depth of that talent on the roster is such that you can have a bunch of these players "take the night off" so to speak, and there's still talent there that can make a difference. That's definitely new since the lockout.

Defensive zone coverage and the D in general are bottom of the league weak, and I don't expect that to change much, barring a trade. There's been some serious fire drills in the leafs defensive end, and it'll take more than coaching to eliminate that this season I would think.

 

[Kin]

I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat.

Just to clear it up though, this is only half of the story. Right now Matthews and Nylander, playing together have a CF/60 of 78.95. Alex Ovechkin, in the year where he scored 65 goals, was at 66.40. So it's not "I expect the young guys to come down a bit" but rather that I'd expect anyone to come down a bit. The idea that they're young and might hit a significant wall...that's what might explain them cooling off a lot.

 

[bustaheims]

While it's nice that they've won the last couple games, if the way they've played in those contests becomes a trend, a lot of those positive looking numbers are going to go south in a hurry.

 

[mr grieves]

Looks like they got things back on track against the Canucks.

[tweet]795631980045926400[/tweet]

 

[hockeyfan1]

While it's expected that the team may go in a slump every now and then, no one would be expecting the young Leafs to "hit a wall" significantly or even for a prolonged period of time,  Somehow with all of the talent the team carries now, to have one or two of these players In a funk for too long doesn't seem plausible, not when there's others to take up the slack.

Then again, who knows, anything can happen.  It's good to remain optimistic, as the air around the Leafs these days is nothing but that, optimism.

 

[Tigger]

I don't think we really know what this team is yet but I don't think it's unfair to say that hoping 7 rookies have successful 82 game seasons might be a bit out there.

Given that, I think it looks good for the big 3, all with good shot totals, 2 of 3 with good power play production and none with overwhelming toi.

Zaitsev looks fantastic early, could shoot more but has played a ton.

Hyman, probably not a lot more there, a good energy player. Sosh needs to prove he can stay healthy and Brown has had a mixed bag with linemates so it's more difficult to get a bead on him, but he's a smart player who's skating doesn't seem to be an issue anymore.

Some good reasons to remain optimistic, a great starting point for the rebuild.

 

[caver]

I would like to see Babcock do a bit more line juggling like the last game...maybe JVR on the Matthews line.... and Soshnikov up with Bozak...Uncle Leo and Hyman could do some time on the 3rd and 4th lines...

 

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/whats-behind-rangers-surprisingly-exciting-style-play/

Let's do something like this. Please.

 

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/whats-behind-rangers-surprisingly-exciting-style-play/

Let's do something like this. Please.

Mirtle agrees

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/time-to-experiment-with-the-toronto-maple-leafs-roster/article32778416/

 

[herman]

This was interesting for me because it's another line to file under the "Leafs don't actually care about the scoreboard result this season" category.

But we've also heard that Babcock's aiming for 6 points every 5 games (~98 point pace?).

I pulled this from the Kings GDT because I forgot to reply and it actually fits better here.

Babcock's challenge of 6 pts in 5 games is just a motivational goal. I think we're easily 7 pts in 5 when the team hits its stride in the next few years.

The decision to ice Hunwick, Martin, Polak, Smith speak much louder towards angling the Leafs for development-like results. It's the exact template they applied to the Marlies last season (go young, but bring in some classy pseudo-goons).

I can't remember who noted this first, but Polak has been shadowing Matthews-Nylander since he got into the lineup (and you wonder why they're in an even strength scoring drought? See all the plays that die on the sticks of Polak and Hyman  ). Because Babcock needs to play Polak to 'deter' untoward behaviour towards Mattlander (thanks to UFA coup Martin turning out to be not at all good enough), he also needs to saddle Gardiner on Polak's line because Rielly's on matchup with Kadri, and Marincin/Hunwick are lolz.

Prior to the season starting, Lou also said this camp was a bit of a special one for the rookies because, and this was implied, they were taking on more rookies than they will normally consider in the future with an established core. Year 0 of the Build, so to speak. Brown and Soshnikov, who are both waiver exempt, make the team at the expense of Laich, Michalek, Greening, to show they are serious about a meritocracy (except for the muckers?). This is a long-view decision for the future, not a we're winning this season decision (to be fair, keeping Laich, Michalek, Greening would've been a more bald-faced tank move).

You can see the long-view in every Babcock post-game conference so far too. He is steamed about losing, but every word is about the process, and doing the details right the next time, and reinforcing that every player is growing. He's literally talking about Corsi/Fenwick and PDO, just without using the terms.