Young player regression: Are they really this "bad"?

[Erndog]

So I got to thinking... 1 year ago today here's basically where we stood:

Reimer:  Showed great promise, putting up some stellar numbers in spearheading a stretch drive and allowing us to play meaningful games right up until April.  After years of poor goaltending it looked like we finally might have a starting goalie we could hang our hat on!

Kadri:  Put up around a PPG in the AHL and pretty much everyone said he was more or less a lock to make the team in 2011-2012. 

Kulemin:  On his way to a 30 goal season playing a real solid 200 foot game.  Looked like a bargain, a guy who will consistently score 20-30 and a sure fire top 6 forward.  Heck, there was even a discussion here about Kessel vs. Kulemin with several taking Kule's side!

Aulie:  Started logging heavy minutes next to Phaneuf.  Looked like he had the potential to be a real shut down dman and got the best out of our "best" defenceman.

Schenn:  Also started playing heavy top 4 minutes next to Gunnarsson.  After a slow start last year he really turned his season around and was developing into a true hard-hitting, shut down dman.  He was poised to be a top 3-4 guy on our team for years to come.

Colborne:  Newly acquired, he performed very well for the Marlies and many had high hopes he could become a top 2 center for us. 

Frattin:  Although he only played the last game of the season last year, he was a Hobey Baker finalist and had quite the buzz around the boards.



Fast forward 1 year:


Reimer:  No explanation needed.

Kadri:  Still in the AHL, actually performing worse than last year (in terms of PPG) and no real notion of whether or not he will be a full timer next season.

Kulemin:  Quite possibly the biggest drop I have ever seen in a player (next to Cheechoo's... although, at least Jonathan had the knee injury excuses).  He went from being arguably our 2nd best forward to "well, at least he's a good checker!"

Aulie:  Had a terrible training camp, played most of the year with the Marlies and was dealt for another "work in progess" prospect.

Schenn:  Went from being a guaranteed top 4 dman and potential future captain, to trade bait and having a hard time staying in the lineup.

Colborne:  After a great 2 week start, he's been at a .45 PPG in the AHL since.  Not sure how many very good NHLers there currently are who were producing at that level at 21-22 years old in the AHL.

Frattin:  Hasn't been terrible, but I think we all expected a little more than 6 goals.



Basically, at the end of the day, whatever could have gone wrong, has.  These were 7 guys, 4-5 of which had heavy expectations on them and they were, for lack of a better word, pretty terrible this year.

I wouldn't even say that expectations were too high (maybe for Reimer they were) because none of these guys have even come CLOSE to performing at anywhere near what would be acceptable.

It's quite sad and alarming how little we got out of these guys. 

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

Reimer:  Hopefully just a sophomore slump.

Kadri: He looked great for the first few games after the call up this year so there is hope.

Kulemin:  I never thought he was a 30 goal man. I think he greatly over-achieved last year. To me he is a good two-way forward that will give you 15 goals and 30-40 pts, perfectly suited for the 3rd line.

Aulie:  I think his defensive prowess last year was greatly related to the Reimer's super human goal tending. Pylonesque, not a great loss.

Schenn:  He really worries me now. This good season-bad season-good season-bad season pattern is not a good sign.

Colborne: Someone in the other thread is saying he is playing on the line with Orr. He won't score PPG with Orr on his wing.

Frattin:  24 years old so no spring chicken but strong and fast. Another solid 3rd liner for years to come. Perfect replacement for Armstrong at fraction of the money.

 

[Corn Flake]

Reimer:  Some sophomore slump for sure, but more critically I think the concussion derailed his season, and maybe his career if he can't bounce back.  He wasn't dominant before he took that hit, but he was solid and very confident.  All that off-season prep work and training camp kind of got thrown out the window.  Also, can't underestimate not having a Giguere on the bench to help him out has made a tough stretch even worse. 

Kadri:  They seem intent on making this kid fix the defensive holes in his game but it's starting to weigh on him.  I just haven't seen enough of his recent play to tell this is a case of a kid who is always going to be a bit of a defensive liability or if his mistakes are so blatant that it is having a big negative impact on the games. He certainly had that impact at times in the NHL.

Kulemin:  The goals aren't there and its very frustrating but he's doing everything else well.  One of very few players on the team still a +, and that is impressive considering his goal totals.  I think this year cements him as a 3rd liner who may have bursts of goal production but can't be counted on.

Aulie:  Camp wasn't great but like several others, Gardiner blew by him and stole his job.  Maybe some sophomore slump going on here too. He would have been fine and the trade was good value. 

Schenn:  Holding out some hope that Carlyle's system gets him back on track.  About all I can say.  Almost guaranteed he gets traded this off season though.

Colborne:  I'm waiting on post season to evaluate him. I think we will see a lot more.. just a feeling.

Frattin:  45 games, 12 mins /night, changing lines almost nightly.. still finding his way offensively. The rest is encouraging.  I think folks who had expectations of him being a goal monster weren't fair or realistic.

Gardiner: wasn't even on the radar this time last year and looks like a stud in the making.  Take note that I bet this time next year the same frustrations we see about players above start to appear for him as well.  These. Things. Happen.

 

[Peter D.]

Reimer: I'd like to think it's a sophomore slump.  I'd also like to believe that the injury derailed his season and that a summer off will enable him to come back with a fresh slate next year.  Deep down though, I'm not certain he is in fact the goalie who could backstop us to the promised land.  He needs a veteran to a) push him; and b) learn from.

Kadri: Thought he could have stayed up with the big club longer.  He showed his skill set, and it certainly is lacking from this team.  Maintaining it for more than three or four games before disappearing is the next step.

Kulemin: Have never been a big fan, but I thought he was destined for at least a 60-point season.  Massive disappointment.  What's more concerning is that even though he may not score much, at least you'd expect some solid, hard work, two-way play out of him.  That really hasn't been the case.  He has gone from near untouchable to prime trade bait in less than a year.

Aulie: Things spiralled out of control for him once Gardiner proved he deserved his spot.  Never recovered from it.  Shame too because he looked really good with Phaneuf last year.

Schenn:  No need to sugar coat it -- he's been absolutely brutal.  He's still very young to turn it around, but cornerstone and future captain material?  That ship may have already sailed.

Colborne: I think the expectations we had for him were more than they should have been. 

Frattin: For me, I had absolutely no expectations he'd even be on the roster, so for that it's a positive.  Not 2nd line material as he was showing in the pre-season, but the fact he's kept his spot is good enough for me.

 

[Erndog]

I don't think theres a need for everyone to go over each player individually as we all are, for the most part, saying the same things.

I was looking at it collectively.

We had pretty high expectations on all 7 of these guys and pretty much all of them have fallen short (I'd say Frattin is probably the one who's performed closest to his expectations from the group).

At the end of the day, 1 year later and we're left with far more question marks, doubters and concerns than we were last year at this team.  For everyone.

 

[Optimus Reimer]

The problem was the coaching style or system, that I think messed up a lot of the players.  It's amazing that with all the lineup changes, the team still sucked, and the only consistent factor was the coach.  Hopefully Carlyle or his replacement can get the players back to basics, especially defensively.

 

[Peter D.]

If anything, this season has shown that the Leafs don't really have bluechip talent in the pipeline.  It's easy to point and get excited about the depth that is being built up in our system (kudos to Burke for that), but outside of Kadri and maybe Colborne, I don't think anyone could be considered a top talent or potential game breaker. 

That's what the team is sorely lacking, and why I hope the Leafs continue to slide as to give us a chance to acquire a guy like that.  How sexy would it be to actually get excited over our own Duchene or Seguin, or heck, a Stamkos or Tavares. 

 

[ZBBM]

"It's quite sad and alarming how little we got out of these guys."

"Got"?  So it's over?

Of your list, Reimer and Schenn are hardly to be written off yet.  Kadri has actually played pretty well during his callups, regardless of his numbers on the Marlies.  Aulie is gone (FWIW I wouldn't have traded him, particularly, for Ashton) but may well succeed with TB.  Colborne and Frattin are obviously still developing.

Kulemin, no way around it, has been a disturbing bust.

As for Reimer, who knows whether he's legit or the next Pogge, but it's too early to say, and it's silly to write off young goaltenders who have at least shown they can perform at the NHL level.  I want to see how he does when he hasn't been concussed right out of the gate.  And I want to see whether Schenn can flourish under a coach not named Ron Wilson.  We should know by the middle of next season.  I think it would be a mistake to consider trading him before then.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Mirtle posted awhile back about how Reimer's statistical regression this season was completely in line with the sophomore season of other goalies, and when you couple it with the injury problem this season, I don't think it's that surprising nor particularly worrisome yet.

 

[Erndog]

"It's quite sad and alarming how little we got out of these guys."

"Got"?  So it's over?

Of your list, Reimer and Schenn are hardly to be written off yet.  Kadri has actually played pretty well during his callups, regardless of his numbers on the Marlies.  Aulie is gone (FWIW I wouldn't have traded him, particularly, for Ashton) but may well succeed with TB.  Colborne and Frattin are obviously still developing.

Kulemin, no way around it, has been a disturbing bust.

As for Reimer, who knows whether he's legit or the next Pogge, but it's too early to say, and it's silly to write off young goaltenders who have at least shown they can perform at the NHL level.  I want to see how he does when he hasn't been concussed right out of the gate.  And I want to see whether Schenn can flourish under a coach not named Ron Wilson.  We should know by the middle of next season.  I think it would be a mistake to consider trading him before then.

I think you've totally missed the mark on what I'm trying to say.

I'm not extrapolating futures from these guys.  I'm not saying they are busts or anything.

What I am saying tough is that yes, we GOT very little from all of them THIS season after we were expecting a lot from the group collectively.

So is that a cause for concern?  We can't just write off each with "ah well, it happens."  Perhaps we've overblown Kulemin or Reimer or Kadri, or whoever.  My point is that 1 year ago we had heavy hopes and pretty big expectations for our young guys than only 1 year later we've had to question what we might be getting from them.

 

[Boston Leaf]

The guy on that list I would not give up on is Kulemin.. He progressed each year until this year. I know it is an excuse but the Russian plane crash taht killed two of his friends may hae really affected him.. Who knows. I think after the usmmer off he will return next year and be a heck of a 2 way 50 -60 point guy..  Alos think Frattin wil lonly get better. No idea on rest..

 

[Corn Flake]

If anything, this season has shown that the Leafs don't really have bluechip talent in the pipeline. 

Gardiner?

 

[princedpw]

There was a mistake that was very easy to avoid:  Schenn should have stayed in junior the year he came up.  That would have given us one extra year to evaluate where he was before giving him a new contract.  If we'd have done that he'd be getting a ~1.2 million contract next year instead of a 3.6 million one and he'd fit well into our salary structure as a good young asset.

 

[Mikhail Bloodnovsky]

If anything, this season has shown that the Leafs don't really have bluechip talent in the pipeline. 

Gardiner?

Gardiner will most likely take a step back next year. I hope not but the odds are against him.

 

[Bullfrog]

Schenn:  No need to sugar coat it -- he's been absolutely brutal.  He's still very young to turn it around, but cornerstone and future captain material?  That ship may have already sailed.

I'm glad you have at least acknowledged that he could still turn it around. As a physical, defensive D-man at 22 1/2 years old, the ship hasn't even raised anchor yet.

Has been in the top 10 for hits in the league for the last three seasons and is currently #1 for all defensemen. He's still got lots of potential and I expect to see growth out of him. I think he's definitely got leadership potential.

 

[Redleaf]

If anything, this season has shown that the Leafs don't really have bluechip talent in the pipeline. 

Gardiner?

Gardiner will most likely take a step back next year. I hope not but the odds are against him.

So, you're saying this 'young player regression' thing is a natural occurrence? Way to ruin any further discussion on the matter!

 

[Peter D.]

If anything, this season has shown that the Leafs don't really have bluechip talent in the pipeline. 

Gardiner?

Usually when I make a statement like that, I mistakenly overlook the D and concentrate on the forwards as it's been far too long.   

But yeah, I'd suggest Gardiner would fit into that category.  The potential is definitely there.  I personally wouldn't consider him as a complete untouchable as many others have, but I think he no doubt is the biggest piece on defence moving forward.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Kulemin: What's more concerning is that even though he may not score much, at least you'd expect some solid, hard work, two-way play out of him.  That really hasn't been the case.

I agree with most of you post, but the above is complete nonsense.

 

[ZBBM]

"It's quite sad and alarming how little we got out of these guys."

"Got"?  So it's over?

Of your list, Reimer and Schenn are hardly to be written off yet.  Kadri has actually played pretty well during his callups, regardless of his numbers on the Marlies.  Aulie is gone (FWIW I wouldn't have traded him, particularly, for Ashton) but may well succeed with TB.  Colborne and Frattin are obviously still developing.

Kulemin, no way around it, has been a disturbing bust.

As for Reimer, who knows whether he's legit or the next Pogge, but it's too early to say, and it's silly to write off young goaltenders who have at least shown they can perform at the NHL level.  I want to see how he does when he hasn't been concussed right out of the gate.  And I want to see whether Schenn can flourish under a coach not named Ron Wilson.  We should know by the middle of next season.  I think it would be a mistake to consider trading him before then.

I think you've totally missed the mark on what I'm trying to say.

I'm not extrapolating futures from these guys.  I'm not saying they are busts or anything.

What I am saying tough is that yes, we GOT very little from all of them THIS season after we were expecting a lot from the group collectively.

So is that a cause for concern?  We can't just write off each with "ah well, it happens."  Perhaps we've overblown Kulemin or Reimer or Kadri, or whoever.  My point is that 1 year ago we had heavy hopes and pretty big expectations for our young guys than only 1 year later we've had to question what we might be getting from them.

I see now -- sorry that I misconstrued you.  It would have helped to have added "this year" to your sentence.

Anyway, the rest of my post stands.

 

[Peter D.]

I'm glad you have at least acknowledged that he could still turn it around. As a physical, defensive D-man at 22 1/2 years old, the ship hasn't even raised anchor yet.

Has been in the top 10 for hits in the league for the last three seasons and is currently #1 for all defensemen. He's still got lots of potential and I expect to see growth out of him. I think he's definitely got leadership potential.

I've railed on Schenn this season a lot -- and I believe rightfully so -- but it's easy to forget he's still only 22 1/2 considering this is already his fourth season.  He still has a lot of development to do and is still learning how to grow into and use his body. 

I do wish though that he hasn't regressed as he has these past few seasons.  I'll attribute it to playing under Wilson and thus I want to see what Carlyle can do with him (as well as how he plays in the system) for more than a quarter of the season.  If at this time next year he is still stagnant, or even worse, regresses further, I'd say we'd have to really re-evaluate what we have in him and what he is.