princedpw said:
It is not that simple. The fact that owners want contract length limits does not make them dumb. The fact that GMs both sign long-term contracts and also want a CBA that prohibits long-term contracts does not make them dumb or inconsistent or irrational or "unable to control themselves when they should know better".
The Weber situation is an illustrative example. Philly tried to squeeze Nashville by giving Weber a massive, front loaded deal. The cap hit was not the problem; it was the distribution of funds.
I think this right here is where you should have stopped because you seem to be addressing a completely different issue. Like you say, the Weber deal was one where the primary issue from Nashville's perspective was the huge whack of upfront money
not contract length. You can eliminate frontloaded deals without implementing a maximum length on contracts, as the NHL is also trying to do, by severely restricting the yearly variance on a long term deal. None of the people you quoted above said anything about that.
princedpw said:
Moreover, Nashville incurs risk from the long contract, which effectively means that the weber deal costs them even more than it appears. Despite the cost, many reasonable people would argue accepting the contract is not dumb -- weber's talent (and popularity) was worth it. Likewise, many reasonable people would argue philly was not dumb for offering the contract -- philly would get better if they had received weber.
Right. Nobody would argue that either Philly or Nashville were dumb because most people would argue that Weber is, even with the big contract he got, worth it.
However, that said, Weber's deal is risky. However that risk is balanced by the presence of some reward. Not only will Nashville have years on the back end where they're paying Weber significantly less than his cap hit which could represent some serious financial benefits but there also exists the possibility as the years go on and the cap grows that Weber will be locked in to a yearly cap hit that would be significantly lower than his market value. Weber's long term deal probably means he'll miss out on testing the market for the rest of his career.
So what I was saying, primarily, is that by not letting teams decide for themselves what players are worth locking up in long term deals that buys future years at current market prices teams are essentially taking away options available to smart GM's to build for the future and manage the cap wisely. Does it eliminate some risk as well? Sure but by coming down on the side of eliminating risk the league is casting in their lot with the GM's who would make the bad decisions about who to lock in to these kinds of deals.
princedpw said:
Even more importantly, if Philly doesn't offer weber the contract becaus they want to play nice and don't want to jack up webers cost then they are, in principle, breaking the law -- they are colluding.
Well, this just isn't true. Each and every team is allowed to decide for themselves what deals they offer based on how they would affect the market because they're also beholden to the market. Philly is even allowed to decide not to try and sign free agents just to be nice.
A charge of collusion, in an actionable sense, actually does require teams to act
in concert. A team can't collude by itself. Brian Burke wasn't mad at Kevin Lowe because he thought Kevin Lowe broke an agreement they had, Brian Burke was mad at Kevin Lowe because he thought Kevin Lowe was doing something that was bad for the league. Nobody, though, said that Kevin Lowe was obligated to offer Dustin Penner what he did or else face charges of collusion.
princedpw said:
However, in a setting where there are no long contracts and there is a cap, Weber just can't cost as much as he wound up costing Nashville. So, by shortening the allowed contract length, the NHL is changing the market for players -- they are artificially reducing the cost of certain players (a few of the highest end players). It is not at all stupid for them to do that.
I don't think that's really true either. Take the Parise deal. Parise signed a 13 year contract worth 98 million dollars. If Parise had signed, say, a five year 50 million dollar deal, which he very possibly could have gotten, he still could cost more than 48 million dollars over the remaining 8 years of his career. As I said above, limiting a contract's length mitigates the risk of a long-term deal but it doesn't necessarily make a player cheaper.
That said, I agree that it's not stupid for the league to want to artificially limit player costs. I think it's greedy, I think it's indefensible from a perspective of fairness, but it's not stupid. It fundamentally makes sense for the NHL to want to pay players as little as possible.
That said, it's a fundamentally different discussion than limiting the sorts of contracts GM's are allowed to offer. If you look at what the NHL is insisting upon it's not just Shea Weber's deal they wouldn't allow, it's Seguin's, it's Crosby's. It's Mike Richards' and James Van Riemsdyk's. Smart teams can use long term deals to lock up young players to deals that buy up years of their free agency at reduced prices. The NHL should be encouraging that.
The best way to see an example of what is being said here is to look at other sports. Baseball is the sport with the fewest restrictions on what a team can offer a player. Basketball is the sport with the most. In Baseball, books and movies are made about how smart GM's can use the freedom available to them to their advantage. In Basketball, people are constantly complaining about how much power individual players have. Baseball has had 19 different champions in the last 30 years. Basketball has had 9.
If a league wanted to put the intelligence of executives at a premium over the decisions of free agents in terms of dictating champions, Baseball's model is the route to take, not Basketball.