2013 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Nik]

That's a shame. Two or three more good years and he'd probably have gotten into the no doubt about it plane of HOF candidacy.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I found these two articles (the 2nd is linked within the 1st one too) on Dickey pretty fascinating:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ironically-velocity-is-the-key-to-r-a-dickeys-knuckleball/

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-r-a-dickey-effect-2013-edition/

Basically, as he regained his velocity through the year, his numbers became much better and at a perfectly acceptable level for the Jays.  The 2nd link argues that pitching after Dickey appears to have a significant positive impact on the results.

 

[Champ Kind]

From Sportsnet:

It didn?t take long for the action to resume once Masahiro Tanaka signed with the New York Yankees. The Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to sign free agent right-hander Matt Garza to a four-year, $52 million contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

I'm not quite so delusional that the Jays were serious players in the Tanaka sweepstakes.  But, $13M / year for Garza actually seems entirely reasonable.  Maybe the Jays would have had to paid more to get him, or maybe AA has his sights set on Sanatana or Jimenez, but some good pitching has got to be brought in.  And, now, the pool of premium free agent pitchers has just been reduced by 1/3.

 

[Nik]

I'm not quite so delusional that the Jays were serious players in the Tanaka sweepstakes.  But, $13M / year for Garza actually seems entirely reasonable.  Maybe the Jays would have had to paid more to get him, or maybe AA has his sights set on Sanatana or Jimenez, but some good pitching has got to be brought in.  And, now, the pool of premium free agent pitchers has just been reduced by 1/3.

I agree it seems pretty reasonable if you consider Garza a premium free agent but I think that the price is evidence that there's a lot of skepticism regarding Garza and, specifically, his ability to pitch in the AL. He hasn't thrown 200 innings in four years or put up a +3 WAR in 5 years so, honestly, who does he push out of the Jays rotation? I'd rather Hutchinson and Drabek get a shot, to be honest.

 

[L K]

I'm not quite so delusional that the Jays were serious players in the Tanaka sweepstakes.  But, $13M / year for Garza actually seems entirely reasonable.  Maybe the Jays would have had to paid more to get him, or maybe AA has his sights set on Sanatana or Jimenez, but some good pitching has got to be brought in.  And, now, the pool of premium free agent pitchers has just been reduced by 1/3.

I agree it seems pretty reasonable if you consider Garza a premium free agent but I think that the price is evidence that there's a lot of skepticism regarding Garza and, specifically, his ability to pitch in the AL. He hasn't thrown 200 innings in four years or put up a +3 WAR in 5 years so, honestly, who does he push out of the Jays rotation? I'd rather Hutchinson and Drabek get a shot, to be honest.

Santana intrigues me.  He has an AL pitching track record.  He's pretty much a lock to give you 200 IP which is crucial to keep a fantastic bullpen energized down the stretch.  His numbers in terms of ground ball percentage are pretty solid among the AL pitchers, which bodes well with an infield of Lawrie-Reyes-Goins.

He's probably more of a #3 starter than anything else, but I think the Jays could really use another reliable arm.

Morrow is a huge question mark.  He could be a #1 pitcher or he could be injured all year and be a liability.

Buerhle will probably be consistent for another year or two at least but he's an inning eater who will keep you in most ball-games but not win you very many on his own.

Dickey maybe has a better year, he had a decent second half last year, but he's not going to get much better at his age.

And then we have Happ/Drabek/Rogers/Hutchinson.  Happ has thrown 100+ innings three times in his career.  And Rogers I would really have to see more from to really form an opinion.  He looked good at times and similarly wore down.  I think he might be better served as a swing-man in the pen.

Hutchinson pitched 58 innings in his MLB career and his numbers were really underwhelming on the whole when you look at them.  He had a hot start and then fell apart.  Then he got injured.

Drabek has a 5.37 ERA and WHIP of almost 1.7.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'd be okay with Jimenez or Santana really.

 

[Nik]

Santana intrigues me.  He has an AL pitching track record.  He's pretty much a lock to give you 200 IP which is crucial to keep a fantastic bullpen energized down the stretch.  His numbers in terms of ground ball percentage are pretty solid among the AL pitchers, which bodes well with an infield of Lawrie-Reyes-Goins.

He's probably more of a #3 starter than anything else, but I think the Jays could really use another reliable arm.

I don't disagree with any of your analysis specifically but I really question whether any of the available FA pitchers are difference makers to the degree the Blue Jays need. I really think that if the Jays are going to make up any ground here it has to come from guys like Drabek or Hutchinson taking major leaps forward, even if that's not all that likely, so I still think my preference is going to be to give those guys every chance to make the rotation.

edit: Also, I agree that Santana would be my choice of the remaining FA pitchers but I also sort of think he's the guy who will get a contract that will raise a few eyebrows. I can't help but think that one of the Tanaka runner-ups will make a big run.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Santana intrigues me.  He has an AL pitching track record.  He's pretty much a lock to give you 200 IP which is crucial to keep a fantastic bullpen energized down the stretch.  His numbers in terms of ground ball percentage are pretty solid among the AL pitchers, which bodes well with an infield of Lawrie-Reyes-Goins.

He's probably more of a #3 starter than anything else, but I think the Jays could really use another reliable arm.

I don't disagree with any of your analysis specifically but I really question whether any of the available FA pitchers are difference makers to the degree the Blue Jays need. I really think that if the Jays are going to make up any ground here it has to come from guys like Drabek or Hutchinson taking major leaps forward, even if that's not all that likely, so I still think my preference is going to be to give those guys every chance to make the rotation.

edit: Also, I agree that Santana would be my choice of the remaining FA pitchers but I also sort of think he's the guy who will get a contract that will raise a few eyebrows. I can't help but think that one of the Tanaka runner-ups will make a big run.

So... Santana to the Jays then?

Drabek scares the life out of me. I don't think he'll ever be a big league starter, but I agree that there's no real point in throwing a lot of money at a guy who just isn't worth it.

 

[Champ Kind]

...there's no real point in throwing a lot of money at a guy who just isn't worth it.
[/quote]

I agree with what everyone is saying, but by the GM's own admission the clock is ticking on the potential competitiveness of this team.  Bautista has two years left, Edwin is underpaid for three more years, Reyes will be 31 and will likely be very effective for at least a few more yerars, Dickie is approaching 40 and Buerhle is not far behind.  There is a 3-4 year window to win.  So you go with Hutchinson or Drabek, and they struggle in April and May, and suddenly the team is below 500 in an ultra competitive American League East before summer arrives. 

Look, overpaying for Santana is not only an inevitability, it's also a financial risk.  But I think, all things considered, they need to bring in some reliable pitching to give this team a chance to succeed, almost regardless of $$ cost.