2013 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Peter D.]

I'm not sure how true that is. Other than DeMarlo Hale, the rest of the coaching staff were already in the organization and were simply promoted or reassigned to fill the positions that were emptied when most of the staff decided to join Farrell in Boston. Gibbons was obviously involved in the discussions, but I'm not convinced any of them were his top choice (considering they only brought in one guy from outside the organization, I'm not sure he was even given all that much leeway). On top of that, the biggest area of concern is probably the medical/training staff, and I'm relatively certain that Gibbons had pretty much no say there. I'd say AA is much more responsible for the issues with the team, the coaching staff and the medical/training staff than Gibbons is.

This has definitely become a serious cause for concern.  Last year when the team was ravaged by injuries and questions were being raised about the training/medical staff, many considered it an anomaly.  Two years in a row now?  There has to be a deeper look into this from an organizational standpoint as a whole (from the majors right down to the development levels).

As for Gibbons, I'm torn.  I definitely don't think he's the main problem with this year's troubles.  The onus falls more on the players, which would mean AA should be more under the spotlight.  But I also agree with Corn Flake's point -- is Gibbons capable of leading this team to the World Series?  Heck, I don't think it's unfair to question whether he is in over his head in a division that consists of Maddon, Showalter, Girardi and even Farrell (I still don't know what to make of him) as managers. 

 

[Kin]

This has definitely become a serious cause for concern.  Last year when the team was ravaged by injuries and questions were being raised about the training/medical staff, many considered it an anomaly.  Two years in a row now?  There has to be a deeper look into this from an organizational standpoint as a whole (from the majors right down to the development levels).

For what it's worth players on the Jays' roster have the 4th fewest man games lost to injury this year in the Major Leagues and they're only middle of the pack in terms of non-roster players.

 

[KoHo]

As much as I'm not really a fan of Gibbons, most of the issues the team has had have been for things that he's not directly responsible. He doesn't really work with the infielders in terms of their defensive play or even their defensive alignment. He doesn't work with the pitching staff in terms of working on their control, pitch selection, etc. He doesn't work with the batters in terms of improving their discipline, base-running, etc. A manager is much more of a strategist than someone who coaches the players. It's the rest of the coaching and training staff that are really to blame here. While Gibbons makes for a nice scapegoat, because he's the figurehead, it's just about everyone else that needs to be improved upon if the team is going to be able to move forward.

So, what you're saying is, the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field?

Let's get real, please. Gibbons oversees all of this. He's done an abysmal job of getting these guys to perform. This team is one pace to have their worst season since 2004 and 2nd worst season over the last 17 years. I'm not sure how the manager doesn't take a great deal of the blame, especially with such an under performing roster.

 

[maplesyrup]

So, what you're saying is, the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field?

I really don't think he is. 95% of what a manager does is behind the scenes, looking at stats and analyzing match-ups. If he's putting the right players in the right situations then mission accomplished. If the players don't do their part there's really nothing he can do. So, to answer your question No - the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field. He's only responsible for who's out there at any given time. 

 

[bustaheims]

So, what you're saying is, the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field?

No. I'm saying what a manager is actually responsible for and what you're blaming him for are not the same thing. Managers are responsible for strategy, lineups, etc. They manage. They generally do not coach and, outside of the rare player/manager, they absolutely do not take the field to play. The issues you have with the team are mostly about coaching and execution - things that the manager can only do so much for, since he is not directly responsible for them.

 

[Kin]

So, what you're saying is, the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field?

Not solely, no. Certainly not to the extent that they make the difference between a good or a bad season. I've heard some people argue that a manager maybe should be held responsible/given credit for the difference between a club's record/their expected pythagorean record because that is an indication of their ability to get the most of the talent or runs they have to work with and that seems roughly fair. The Jays are two games below their expected W-L and that seems about right.

 

[KoHo]

The Jays have marred by bad baserunning

They've actually ranked as the third best base running team in baseball by according to baseball prospectus' Base Running runs stats so while I'm sure some mistakes stick out in your mind, the reality is that every team makes those kinds of mistakes and it doesn't seem to be hurting them too badly. ,

horrible plate discipline from some of its players,

But as a whole the plate discipline isn't bad. The Jays actually have the 8th most walks and 6th fewest strikeouts in all of baseball. Sure some players have bad plate discipline but no manager was going to come in and get guys like JP or Rasmus to not strike out. Some players, like EE, have by far the best K% of their career this year.

and poor defense.

Team defense is a hard thing to get a hold of in a contextual sense but just in a personnel sense this seems like more of a AA thing than Gibbons. If we accept the premise that the most important defensive positions are up the middle than the team that AA put together is just a bad defensive one. JP is not a good defensive catcher, there is no good defensive second baseman on the roster and Reyes, who was hurt for a good chunk of the year, is an ok defensive shortstop at best. Toss in injuries to Rasmus and Lawrie who are probably the two best defensive players on the club and I'm having a real hard time coming up with why the manager should be blamed for a poor overall level of defense(if that is indeed the case for the Jays).

Where's the accountability here? I understand Gibbons is a very laid back manager, but is he too laid back for this particular group? Not only that, but this team looks like a bunch of saps night in and night out. They don't look like a team that believes in themselves like the Orioles or Rays. Why isn't Gibbons able to motivate these players? What's worse, I think we can all agree this is a severely under-performing team. Isn't it a manager's job to get the most out of his players? Gibbons hasn't accomplished that one iota.

Well, ignoring for a second judging the team on how laid back they seem or their believe-in-themselvesitude I think the real problem with that thinking is that there are a bunch of Jays who are having good years. Four guys made the all-star team. The bull-pen has been great. Rasmus has had a very good year. So has EE. Adam Lind is on track to have his best statistical season in five years.

So if Gibbons is a bad motivator, if the performance of the under-performing guys is on him, what explains all the guys having great years? If player performance can be credibly linked to a manager's motivation then how come he seems to be able to properly motivate some guys and not others?

The reality is you're just repeating catch phrases and buzzwords as stand-ins for any actual hard facts to lay at Gibbons' feet. A guy like Josh Johnson, whose lousy year has probably cost him 50-60 million dollars, hasn't had a bad year because Gibbons didn't motivate him enough. Players have bad years. Throughout baseball history it happens to players of all sorts even when there are no changes in who is managing them. Look at San Francisco this year. They're the defending World Series champs. The talent is there. Bruce Bochy has "motivated" that great pitching staff to great results in the past. So why is Matt Cain having the worst year of his career? Did Bochy forget how to manage him? Did he get super-laid back this off-season? Or are players just subject to huge swings from year to year as they have been for the roughly 143 year history of professional baseball?

Anybody can list what the Jays haven't been good at this year. What people can't do is make a convincing case that it's the fault of the manager. The concept of firing someone just to satisfy some sort of nebulous concept of accountability can work, sure, but really only if a team has tuned their manager out. Change for change's sake can have a benefit but so can stability. Firing Gibbons could say to players "This year is unacceptable and people have paid the price" but it could also say "See, this guy was to blame, not you guys for playing like crap".

Right now, this is on the players. If you're looking higher up than that, it's the guy who put them together.

Gibbons is steering the ship of the worst Jays team in a decade. As I said previously, I'm not sure how you take such an under-performing roster and not place some blame on the manager. It's not all his fault, and firing him wouldn't change anything dramatically, but let me ask you this. If Gibbons isn't the biggest problem, is he the answer? Is he the guy to lead this team in the future?

Gibbons isn't a winner. Guys like Maddon and Showalter, they find a way. Gibbons has been presiding over a team that's been playing bad, sloppy baseball for the whole season. Some fans and media have described Gibbons as a "caretaker" in the past, going right back when he was hired in the spring. If that's the case, perhaps a "caretaker" is the wrong type of manager for this team. I don't think Gibbons makes this team any better, at all. He's not the answer.

 

[Deebo]

In 65 home games, the Jays have surpassed the total attendance from last season.

 

[Kin]

Gibbons is steering the ship of the worst Jays team in a decade.

Sure, that'll happen when a team has bad performances from all of their starters. That's still not on the manager though.

As I said previously, I'm not sure how you take such an under-performing roster and not place some blame on the manager.

Just by recognizing what a manager can and can't control. The roster is under-performing, sure, but he didn't put the roster together.

It's not all his fault, and firing him wouldn't change anything dramatically, but let me ask you this. If Gibbons isn't the biggest problem, is he the answer?

It depends. Is the question "Who can you hire who can take a team full of ballplayers who aren't very good and win the world series?" because then, no, he's not. Neither is a re-animated Joe McCarthy though.

If the question is "Who, like all managers, isn't going to have a huge impact on his team's W-L record?" then Gibbons might not be the answer but he is an answer.

Gibbons isn't a winner. Guys like Maddon and Showalter, they find a way.

Which, of course, explains the number of World Series that both men have won as managers. Which, combined, would be...let's see, the exact same number as John Gibbons.

In fact, kind of interestingly, Showalter has the interesting distinction of having two of his three former teams win world series in the year after he was fired.

 

[KoHo]

So, what you're saying is, the manager isn't responsible for how the team performs on the field?

No. I'm saying what a manager is actually responsible for and what you're blaming him for are not the same thing. Managers are responsible for strategy, lineups, etc. They manage. They generally do not coach and, outside of the rare player/manager, they absolutely do not take the field to play. The issues you have with the team are mostly about coaching and execution - things that the manager can only do so much for, since he is not directly responsible for them.

One of things I've criticized the Jays for is their poor fundamentals. If Gibbons isn't directly responsible for that since it's more coaching than managing, isn't he still responsible for trotting out lineups that don't address these fundamental issues?

For example, he kept on shepherding Bonifacio all over the field despite his laughable defense. Would it not be his job to recognize the guy can't play for shit? The fans knew that in April! He also failed to hold Arencibia accountable for his hackjob career-worst swing discipline. Wouldn't it be his job to get JPA to change his approach?

Not only that, but the culture of this team really took a downward spiral this year. A "winning attitude" was non-existent. Bautista had his plate blow-ups. Arencibia had his twitter wars and fights with the media. Silly stuff has happened. This team has no leadership to set the tone for a winning ball club. You heard the criticism from Omar Vizquel at the end of last season and wonder how much has actually changed.

 

[Kin]

Emilio Bonifacio actually has a +dWAR according to Baseball-Reference, for anyone keeping score at home.

 

[Frank E]

Emilio Bonifacio actually has a +dWAR according to Baseball-Reference, for anyone keeping score at home.

I watched Moneyball last night...I still don't know what you're talking about.

 

[bustaheims]

One of things I've criticized the Jays for is their poor fundamentals. If Gibbons isn't directly responsible for that since it's more coaching than managing, isn't he still responsible for trotting out lineups that don't address these fundamental issues?

Only if he actually had better options, which is debatable. He can only work with the roster he's provided.

For example, he kept on shepherding Bonifacio all over the field despite his laughable defense. Would it not be his job to recognize the guy can't play for shit? The fans knew that in April! He also failed to hold Arencibia accountable for his hackjob career-worst swing discipline. Wouldn't it be his job to get JPA to change his approach?

As I said, he can only work with the roster he's provided. When Reyes was hurt, he just didn't have a better option than Bonifacio. Kawasaki was already subbing in at SS and Izturis wasn't exactly playing any better in the field. Gibbons can't be expected to make something out of nothing. As for Arencibia, all Gibbons can do is have him work with the batting coach to improve on his issues. Past that, his only other option would be to bench him and play Blanco or Thole - neither of which represent an upgrade at the plate, even with Arencibia's poor approach.

Not only that, but the culture of this team really took a downward spiral this year. A "winning attitude" was non-existent. Bautista had his plate blow-ups. Arencibia had his twitter wars and fights with the media. Silly stuff has happened. This team has no leadership to set the tone for a winning ball club. You heard the criticism from Omar Vizquel at the end of last season and wonder how much has actually changed.

Gibbons isn't a baby sitter, and these players are grown men. He shouldn't be expected to hold their hands throughout life, especially off the field. The team has other employees that are supposed to coach the players on how to deal with all forms of media, be is traditional or social, and it's up to the players to listen to them and learn. Team leadership shouldn't have to come from the manager - that's something that's also largely the responsibility of the players. As for the whole winning attitude thing . . . you know what generates that? Winning. Baltimore didn't have it until they started winning last season. Boston didn't get it back until they started winning this season. It's an effect of winning, not something that causes it.

 

[bustaheims]

Emilio Bonifacio actually has a +dWAR according to Baseball-Reference, for anyone keeping score at home.

Yeah. His overall defensive play wasn't all that bad. He just had a really bad stretch early in the season where he booted a few balls. That being said, his UZR of 0.3 at 2B while with the Jays isn't exactly good, either, but, rather, startlingly ordinary.

 

[Kin]

Emilio Bonifacio actually has a +dWAR according to Baseball-Reference, for anyone keeping score at home.

I watched Moneyball last night...I still don't know what you're talking about.

Worse still I read all of Dr. Zhivago and my last two attempts at surgery went baaa-d.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Good, I'm glad they're keeping him.  He doesn't need to fire his guy just to satiate some fans' need for someone to blame or take the fall.  The vast majority of this team's troubles this season had nothing to do with him, and I don't think there is a single person who could have changed it from the manager's position.

Okay, but based on everything you've seen from Gibbons this year and maybe even in his previous run, if they fix all the other issues, do you believe he is the guy who is going to lead this team to the world series?

I don't see why not.  Not every manager is a smashing success instantly, especially if he's hampered by issues beyond his control.  The Jays are either going to make the World Series or not based upon the quality of team they are able to consistently field, not upon the quality of the manager.  The manager may do some things which steer them more towards that goal and help it along, but overwhelmingly it is going to be the calibre of players.  I think the players are the logs of the structure and the manager helps insulate between them.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

horrible plate discipline from some of its players,

But as a whole the plate discipline isn't bad. The Jays actually have the 8th most walks and 6th fewest strikeouts in all of baseball. Sure some players have bad plate discipline but no manager was going to come in and get guys like JP or Rasmus to not strike out. Some players, like EE, have by far the best K% of their career this year.

Just saw this stat on twitter:

@james_in_to

Only 2 teams have struck out in fewer than 18% of their at bats and walked in greater than 8%, Tigers and Jays.

 

[Kin]

I thought this was pretty funny. A police officer writes a pretty great arrest report after a fan runs onto the field:

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/08/30/toronto-police-empathize-with-rogers-centre-interloper/

On May 5, 2013 at approximately 3:18 PM the Toronto Blue jays were surprisingly winning against the underrated Seattle Marriners. Our hapless Jays limped along to the bottom of the 8th inning. At one point, the Jays were considered World Series contenders. One can almost forgive the accused for his below described actions.

Luckily, the accused ran onto the field from level 100 and wasn?t forced to jump from the 500 level out of sheer frustration.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Pretty nice little write up on Brett Lawrie from What Scouts Are Saying at Baseball Prospectus:

?His detractors will tell you that his makeup makes him a risk or prone to streakiness, but I think that line of thinking is just caddywhompus. He plays at level 10 with an extra shot of espresso at all times, but he is still under control. He has impressive forearm strength that lets him snap the bat head through the zone, but he does a good job of staying back on balls and driving them the other way, whereas he was just looking to yank everything when he first came up. I think he is among the five best defenders at his position in the game, and he is only going to improve. He is very quick and has more than enough arm strength to make the toughest plays to his right. I am comfortable saying that he is going to be a superstar third baseman, and it?s more likely to happen sooner than later.?

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21663


Goes nicely with this play from last night:

 

[Rick C.]

Bautista out for rest of season.  Femur bone bruise...