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2015 NHL Entry Draft - Draft Day!

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
That paper is impressive except for the fact that he overlooks his single most important finding, which is the huge dropoff between the first and second rounds for skaters (table 3).
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Really? You think it's a really important finding that players taken in the entirety of the first round are more likely to play than players taken in the entirety of the second round? You realize that's as much a reflection on the difference between drafting 1st and drafting 60th as it is a reflection on the difference between drafting 24th and 34th, right?
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Which I now see we have turned into ... Travis McDermott??  Jebus.
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This all hinges on how much stock you put into Mark Hunter's ability to be a 'star' at draft picking players for the NHL.
 
I guarantee that if the Leafs had taken Sprong yesterday they'd have faced almost no criticism for it despite the fact that the entire league is apparently pretty lukewarm on him and he seems likely to fall into the middle of the second round at least.

This is why you don't get overly worked up about picks in this range.
 
Nik the Trik said:
I guarantee that if the Leafs had taken Sprong yesterday they'd have faced almost no criticism for it despite the fact that the entire league is apparently pretty lukewarm on him and he seems likely to fall into the middle of the second round at least.

This is why you don't get overly worked up about picks in this range.
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He has certainly scared teams off still sitting on the board after 40 picks.
 
In addition to not being entertaining, this broadcast is doing a pretty terrible job of telling us who's actually being drafted.

I mean, they have one job.
 
I know nothing about any of these players but this kid the avs picked makes no sense to me. 3 goals? For a forward?
 
Joe S. said:
I know nothing about any of these players but this kid the avs picked makes no sense to me. 3 goals? For a forward?
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It's probably best to think of that the way you think of some of the stats on the Swedish guys who get taken. It seems to be more of a reflection of ice time and opportunity than anything.
 
Nik the Trik said:
In addition to not being entertaining, this broadcast is doing a pretty terrible job of telling us who's actually being drafted.

I mean, they have one job.
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I don't know if the stream is just delayed or not, but I'm finding out all of the picks through twitter first. Like by a decent amount of time too.
 
The Stars drafted someone named Roope Hintz, which seems like a pretty strong contender for name of the draft.
 
L K said:
Nik the Trik said:
I guarantee that if the Leafs had taken Sprong yesterday they'd have faced almost no criticism for it despite the fact that the entire league is apparently pretty lukewarm on him and he seems likely to fall into the middle of the second round at least.

This is why you don't get overly worked up about picks in this range.
Click to expand...

He has certainly scared teams off still sitting on the board after 40 picks.
Click to expand...

Character flaw or something?
 
Nik the Trik said:
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
That paper is impressive except for the fact that he overlooks his single most important finding, which is the huge dropoff between the first and second rounds for skaters (table 3).
Click to expand...

Really? You think it's a really important finding that players taken in the entirety of the first round are more likely to play than players taken in the entirety of the second round? You realize that's as much a reflection on the difference between drafting 1st and drafting 60th as it is a reflection on the difference between drafting 24th and 34th, right?
Click to expand...

I'm just pointing out what his stats say. 
Also you should consider that adding probabilities up is not really a great idea since the probability of any single player making it is an independent event.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I'm just pointing out what his stats say. 
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Yes, and his conclusion is that the Leafs made a good value pick based on the actual difference between the picks they had and the picks they traded for. The value of first round picks in the aggregate doesn't trump that over the value of second round picks in the aggregate.
 
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