2015 NHL Entry Draft

[pmrules]

What they can't have happen is become the Oilers where you draft and draft and draft but don't put mentors on the roster to teach the young kids how to play.

Here's my question there though...how many guys like that does a team need? It's unfair to say the Oilers didn't have any guys like that on the roster. They had Horcoff and Smyth and Hemsky and Gordon and Nick Schultz and Ference over the years.

They paid, some would say overpaid, to get guys like that on the team. So what's the real difference between what they did and what you think the Leafs would need to do?

Pacing.  They drafted a bunch of guys who had offensive games ready for the NHL but were woefully unprepared defensively.  I think veterans play a few roles in terms of player development. 
1) They teach.  I'm not sure that the Oilers necessarily had the right combination of veterans who were good mentors.
2) They buy you time to allow guys to develop on the farm/juniors.

The Oilers struck me as an organization that was trigger happy to throw their top prospects into the NHL and into prominent roster slots at that.

Nail Yakupov - 0 AHL games - straight from Sarnia to the NHL after just turning 19.  And although he put up 17 goals in his first (lockout shortened) season, his shooting percentage was 21% (21%!!!!) that year.
Jordan Eberle - 20 AHL games total over 2 seasons and NHL as a 20-year-old.  He had another 35 games d/t the lockout.  His numbers are better than Yakupov, but in his second season his shooting percentage was 19% (what's with these guys??)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Entered the NHL as an 18-year-old straight out of junior.  Played 19 AHL games total, but that likely would have been 0 if not for the lockout.
Taylor Hall - again, straight from junior to the NHL as a 18-year-old.  He played 26 games in the AHL in his third year, again only because of the lockout.

Talk about throwing your young prospects straight into the fire.  I'm sure there are more, but those are the ones that came to mind right off.

Were these 4 guys even eligible to play in the AHL after they were drafted?  It was either NHL or back to Junior for most of them, if I understand the rules correctly?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

What they can't have happen is become the Oilers where you draft and draft and draft but don't put mentors on the roster to teach the young kids how to play.

Here's my question there though...how many guys like that does a team need? It's unfair to say the Oilers didn't have any guys like that on the roster. They had Horcoff and Smyth and Hemsky and Gordon and Nick Schultz and Ference over the years.

They paid, some would say overpaid, to get guys like that on the team. So what's the real difference between what they did and what you think the Leafs would need to do?

Pacing.  They drafted a bunch of guys who had offensive games ready for the NHL but were woefully unprepared defensively.  I think veterans play a few roles in terms of player development. 
1) They teach.  I'm not sure that the Oilers necessarily had the right combination of veterans who were good mentors.
2) They buy you time to allow guys to develop on the farm/juniors.

The Oilers struck me as an organization that was trigger happy to throw their top prospects into the NHL and into prominent roster slots at that.

Nail Yakupov - 0 AHL games - straight from Sarnia to the NHL after just turning 19.  And although he put up 17 goals in his first (lockout shortened) season, his shooting percentage was 21% (21%!!!!) that year.
Jordan Eberle - 20 AHL games total over 2 seasons and NHL as a 20-year-old.  He had another 35 games d/t the lockout.  His numbers are better than Yakupov, but in his second season his shooting percentage was 19% (what's with these guys??)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Entered the NHL as an 18-year-old straight out of junior.  Played 19 AHL games total, but that likely would have been 0 if not for the lockout.
Taylor Hall - again, straight from junior to the NHL as a 18-year-old.  He played 26 games in the AHL in his third year, again only because of the lockout.

Talk about throwing your young prospects straight into the fire.  I'm sure there are more, but those are the ones that came to mind right off.

Were these 4 guys even eligible to play in the AHL after they were drafted?  It was either NHL or back to Junior for most of them, if I understand the rules correctly?

Once they turned 20.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Nail Yakupov - 0 AHL games - straight from Sarnia to the NHL after just turning 19.  And although he put up 17 goals in his first (lockout shortened) season, his shooting percentage was 21% (21%!!!!) that year.
Jordan Eberle - 20 AHL games total over 2 seasons and NHL as a 20-year-old.  He had another 35 games d/t the lockout.  His numbers are better than Yakupov, but in his second season his shooting percentage was 19% (what's with these guys??)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Entered the NHL as an 18-year-old straight out of junior.  Played 19 AHL games total, but that likely would have been 0 if not for the lockout.
Taylor Hall - again, straight from junior to the NHL as a 18-year-old.  He played 26 games in the AHL in his third year, again only because of the lockout.

Talk about throwing your young prospects straight into the fire.  I'm sure there are more, but those are the ones that came to mind right off.

See, again though, that list to me reads less as a list of how the Oilers should have given their players more AHL time and more as evidence that they really didn't make good decisions when drafting and the limits of just drafting the best available player.

They lucked out with Eberle a little, finding a really good offensive winger at the #20 spot. Then they drafted Taylor Hall, a really good offensive winger. Then they drafted RNH, a smallish but offensively gifted center. Then they drafted another offensive winger in Yakupov. There's a pattern there and it reads pretty simple.

If they'd drafted Seguin, Landeskog and Ryan Murray instead of Hall, RNH and Yakupov they'd have taken three players who combined have the grand total of zero AHL games between them but who've brought a diverse range of skills to their NHL teams and, I think it's fair to say, the Oilers would be in a significantly better position than they are now.

Good examples, but how many organizations do this with all of their top young players?  And on top of that, they're a terrible team so they don't really have the ability to shelter anyone, it's just sink or swim.  I realize it's all hindsight, but none of these guys was put into a great situation.  I think Yakupov, maybe more than any of them, should have been given more time to develop (in junior, my mistake).

And I agree, there were probably better decisions to be made at the draft, but that would require having a functional organization.

 

[Kin]

Good examples, but how many organizations do this with all of their top young players?  And on top of that, they're a terrible team so they don't really have the ability to shelter anyone, it's just sink or swim.  I realize it's all hindsight, but none of these guys was put into a great situation.  I think Yakupov, maybe more than any of them, should have been given more time to develop (in junior, my mistake).

And I agree, there were probably better decisions to be made at the draft, but that would require having a functional organization.

I can't say for certain but at a guess? I'd say that a top 3 pick skipping the AHL entirely is pretty common. Honestly, I even look at RNH, Hall and Eberle and don't think they were all that negatively affected by it. All three of them are pretty good players and with Hall it's just been a matter of staying healthy. To me the reason they're not good really has nothing to do with those three.

I take your point about there maybe being a cumulative effect of having a bunch of those players on the roster at once but even still it seems really tough to me to imagine any situation where you're trying to build around those 4 players and you don't end up having to ask them to be good at things they're not naturally good at in the hopes that a balanced roster emerges.

 

[slapshot]

I just can't see them taking a d-man other than Hanifin if he were still there at 6 (doubtful).

I don't see why. I mean, it's not exactly as if they're teeming with top tier defensive prospects. Aside from Rielly, who do they have that's a sure thing to be on the blue line in the next few years?

They need everything right now.

While I agree they need everything. I think Rielly will develop into something special and I actually think Gardiner will get better as well. I think one of the other young prospects, Percy, Finn or someone will fit in there, at least one of them. They have a host of others that could possibly blossom. There could be as many a three young developing blueliners on the team next year. I think you need some veterans with them, Polak potentially being one of them. I mean it at least he plays hard and is actually better than I expected. They may be able to add a couple more veterans like the Islanders did as some point. I just think the forwards tend to go higher because they rack up points and it looks glamourous, perhaps. I'd like to see if the Leafs grab a couple of centres, that's all. If they grabbed a d-man or two with the Nashville pick or in the second round, I'm ok with that. I just think there is a better crop of forwards than d-men in the draft this year, but that's just an opinion.

 

[Al14]

I just can't see them taking a d-man other than Hanifin if he were still there at 6 (doubtful).

I don't see why. I mean, it's not exactly as if they're teeming with top tier defensive prospects. Aside from Rielly, who do they have that's a sure thing to be on the blue line in the next few years?

They need everything right now.

While I agree they need everything. I think Rielly will develop into something special and I actually think Gardiner will get better as well. I think one of the other young prospects, Percy, Finn or someone will fit in there, at least one of them. They have a host of others that could possibly blossom. There could be as many a three young developing blueliners on the team next year. I think you need some veterans with them, Polak potentially being one of them. I mean it at least he plays hard and is actually better than I expected. They may be able to add a couple more veterans like the Islanders did as some point. I just think the forwards tend to go higher because they rack up points and it looks glamourous, perhaps. I'd like to see if the Leafs grab a couple of centres, that's all. If they grabbed a d-man or two with the Nashville pick or in the second round, I'm ok with that. I just think there is a better crop of forwards than d-men in the draft this year, but that's just an opinion.

Robidas too?

 

[slapshot]

What they can't have happen is become the Oilers where you draft and draft and draft but don't put mentors on the roster to teach the young kids how to play.

Here's my question there though...how many guys like that does a team need? It's unfair to say the Oilers didn't have any guys like that on the roster. They had Horcoff and Smyth and Hemsky and Gordon and Nick Schultz and Ference over the years.

They paid, some would say overpaid, to get guys like that on the team. So what's the real difference between what they did and what you think the Leafs would need to do?

Pacing.  They drafted a bunch of guys who had offensive games ready for the NHL but were woefully unprepared defensively.  I think veterans play a few roles in terms of player development. 
1) They teach.  I'm not sure that the Oilers necessarily had the right combination of veterans who were good mentors.
2) They buy you time to allow guys to develop on the farm/juniors.

The Oilers struck me as an organization that was trigger happy to throw their top prospects into the NHL and into prominent roster slots at that.

I would concur with this. Not the right mix. Smyth was past his best before date. They others I would not describe as guys you'd look up to per say.
I think the Leafs need a few go through the wall guys. Geesh, sure miss Tucker, Roberts, guys like that. They seem hard to come by these days. Komarov was the closest thing we had to that before he got hurt. Hope he bounces back to form next year, but we need more of those gritty types. I've been fairly impressed by Panek and Booth under Horachek, but who knows? If they could continue to improve, they might be serviceable 3rd liners.

 

[slapshot]

I just can't see them taking a d-man other than Hanifin if he were still there at 6 (doubtful).

I don't see why. I mean, it's not exactly as if they're teeming with top tier defensive prospects. Aside from Rielly, who do they have that's a sure thing to be on the blue line in the next few years?

They need everything right now.

While I agree they need everything. I think Rielly will develop into something special and I actually think Gardiner will get better as well. I think one of the other young prospects, Percy, Finn or someone will fit in there, at least one of them. They have a host of others that could possibly blossom. There could be as many a three young developing blueliners on the team next year. I think you need some veterans with them, Polak potentially being one of them. I mean it at least he plays hard and is actually better than I expected. They may be able to add a couple more veterans like the Islanders did as some point. I just think the forwards tend to go higher because they rack up points and it looks glamourous, perhaps. I'd like to see if the Leafs grab a couple of centres, that's all. If they grabbed a d-man or two with the Nashville pick or in the second round, I'm ok with that. I just think there is a better crop of forwards than d-men in the draft this year, but that's just an opinion.

Robidas too?

I suspect not. Seems like damaged goods now. But the Leafs might feel stuck with his contract. I think a lot will depend on how things unfold with the other big contracts they are trying to unload, taking money back, stuff like that. If they can off-load some big contracts without taking salary back, they might find a way to lose Robidas. He might last one more year, but I doubt he's around for two.

 

[Kin]

While I agree they need everything. I think Rielly will develop into something special and I actually think Gardiner will get better as well. I think one of the other young prospects, Percy, Finn or someone will fit in there, at least one of them. They have a host of others that could possibly blossom. There could be as many a three young developing blueliners on the team next year. I think you need some veterans with them, Polak potentially being one of them. I mean it at least he plays hard and is actually better than I expected.

But who they draft isn't, or shouldn't, be decided by who will be on the team next year. They need to think long term. No matter who they draft they almost certainly won't be on the NHL roster next year and by the time the Leafs are competitive again Gardiner will essentially be a veteran.

 

[Kin]

I would concur with this. Not the right mix. Smyth was past his best before date. They others I would not describe as guys you'd look up to per say.

But we're talking about players in mentorship roles. Why does Smyth being old detract from that? Ference has been put in leadership roles everywhere he's been.

We're not talking about superstars who can lead by virtue of their play. Those guys aren't going to be on a rebuilding team. Gordon and Ference are tough, gritty hockey players.

 

[slapshot]

While I agree they need everything. I think Rielly will develop into something special and I actually think Gardiner will get better as well. I think one of the other young prospects, Percy, Finn or someone will fit in there, at least one of them. They have a host of others that could possibly blossom. There could be as many a three young developing blueliners on the team next year. I think you need some veterans with them, Polak potentially being one of them. I mean it at least he plays hard and is actually better than I expected.

But who they draft isn't, or shouldn't, be decided by who will be on the team next year. They need to think long term. No matter who they draft they almost certainly won't be on the NHL roster next year and by the time the Leafs are competitive again Gardiner will essentially be a veteran.

I didn't say who they draft should be based on whose on the team next year. I just said I think the are more good forwards around, so I'd sooner the Leafs tap into them, most likely best players available. Of course, it comes down to whose available at the time. The scouting reviews just seem to be more glowing towards the forwards this year, that's all. I think it's smart the Leafs grab a talented big centre or two if they can, knowing that's been a big hole since Sundin left. I think most analysts would agree with that.

 

[L K]

I would concur with this. Not the right mix. Smyth was past his best before date. They others I would not describe as guys you'd look up to per say.

But we're talking about players in mentorship roles. Why does Smyth being old detract from that? Ference has been put in leadership roles everywhere he's been.

We're not talking about superstars who can lead by virtue of their play. Those guys aren't going to be on a rebuilding team. Gordon and Ference are tough, gritty hockey players.

Personally I don't subscribe to mentorship as being just about what they can offer off the ice.  I think what the veterans can provide on the ice matters too. I think you need veterans in your top 6/top 4 to help work with guys while they are on the ice.  Cover for their mistakes, but still be able to play with them.  That is what I think a guy like Smyth wasn't able to do in his last stint with Edmonton.

 

[slapshot]

I would concur with this. Not the right mix. Smyth was past his best before date. They others I would not describe as guys you'd look up to per say.

But we're talking about players in mentorship roles. Why does Smyth being old detract from that? Ference has been put in leadership roles everywhere he's been.

We're not talking about superstars who can lead by virtue of their play. Those guys aren't going to be on a rebuilding team. Gordon and Ference are tough, gritty hockey players.

I didn't reference "superstars" in referring to Tucker and Roberts. But guys like that I think were a little more inspiring, with all due respect to Ference and Gordon. Smyth in his prime would have been that type. Not saying he was useless to the younger players, he was just on the downside.

 

[slapshot]

I would concur with this. Not the right mix. Smyth was past his best before date. They others I would not describe as guys you'd look up to per say.

But we're talking about players in mentorship roles. Why does Smyth being old detract from that? Ference has been put in leadership roles everywhere he's been.

We're not talking about superstars who can lead by virtue of their play. Those guys aren't going to be on a rebuilding team. Gordon and Ference are tough, gritty hockey players.

Personally I don't subscribe to mentorship as being just about what they can offer off the ice.  I think what the veterans can provide on the ice matters too. I think you need veterans in your top 6/top 4 to help work with guys while they are on the ice.  Cover for their mistakes, but still be able to play with them.  That is what I think a guy like Smyth wasn't able to do in his last stint with Edmonton.

I agree with you. I think he was just getting worn out from all his years of hard work, takes a toll. Taylor Hall is probably the toughest of their young bunch, but his hard-nosed play has already taken a bit of toll on him too. Probably a bit of unfortunate happenings as well.

 

[Kin]

The scouting reviews just seem to be more glowing towards the forwards this year, that's all. I think it's smart the Leafs grab a talented big centre or two if they can, knowing that's been a big hole since Sundin left. I think most analysts would agree with that.

But you've already said that the guy you'd target at that pick is someone that most analysts don't have in the top 10 in Zacha. A guy like Werenski, on the flip side, is rated higher in just about every single ranking I've seen.

 

[Kin]

Personally I don't subscribe to mentorship as being just about what they can offer off the ice.  I think what the veterans can provide on the ice matters too. I think you need veterans in your top 6/top 4 to help work with guys while they are on the ice.  Cover for their mistakes, but still be able to play with them.  That is what I think a guy like Smyth wasn't able to do in his last stint with Edmonton.

Sure but that's where I'd point to guys like Horcoff and Hemsky. I threw Smyth in there to illustrate that the Oilers that brought those guys into the line-up had just about any kind of veteran you could want absent an in his prime superstar which rebuilding teams won't have anyway.

 

[Rebel_1812]

The Leafs really only have Rielly and Nylander in the system as true blue-chip prospects.  As much as I love Rielly he's also never going to be able to be that Shea Weber, Ryan Suter or even a Drew Doughty kind of anchor on the blueline.  He has the ability to be a special player but he's just not of the same calibre. 

The Leafs really need to just draft the best guys available and recognize that it isn't about drafting for positional need.  Obviously if you have two equal guys there are things that take priority.  Two equal forward, the center is usually a smarter pick.  The 6'2 220 lbs guy is probably a stronger pick over the 5'8 150 lbs player, but the Leafs just need to draft talent.

What they can't have happen is become the Oilers where you draft and draft and draft but don't put mentors on the roster to teach the young kids how to play.

I think that was less the Oilers issue than throwing all of the younger players into the league without a lot of further AHL or junior development.  In addition, drafting terribly outside of the 1st round.

we also have drafted horrible outside of the first round since burke took over.

 

[slapshot]

That's right, I also called it a gamble. Zacha's rating fell because he got hurt. I've read the reports on all them as well.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

A short clip of Noah Hanifin.

https://vine.co/v/O9PFx6bLp2F

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A short clip of Noah Hanifin.

https://vine.co/v/O9PFx6bLp2F

There's probably a good chance he's actually coming into the draft as underrated because McDavid and Eichel are taking all the attention. He obviously shouldn't get drafted any higher than 3, but the fact that rankings out there exist that have him below that are insane.