OldTimeHockey
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So where does that put Nashville's pick?
2015 NHL Entry Draft
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Potvin29 said:
A little late to this. That's an interesting article but it doesn't really change my number 1 problem: they're still basically only using points-per-game (albeit an adjusted one) to predict if a player is going to be a NHLer in the future. I understand that there's evidence to suggest that it's the best stat to make the prediction with, but that's likely because it's really on the only stat we have that we can make that prediction with. But it's also a stat that we know now can be pretty unpredictable, especially in small sample sizes. If somebody on the Nations Network used only PPG to rank certain NHL players they'd be laughed at.
The article's also guilty of doing two things that a lot of people do in regards to Crouse. They admit that his offensive skills are pretty good yet they don't try to explain why his points might be low. They say "on the positive side, Crouse's skating, puck handling and shooting all look to be at the elite level". In the paragraph above they also have no problem giving Konecy some benefit of the doubt for his lower-than-expected scoring: "Konecny had an unexpected slow start to his 2014-15 season, playing for a horrible Ottawa 67's team. Unfortunately for Konecny's stat lines, the 67's don't really have many other players worth worrying about for the opposition, which I think is part of what you see reflected in Konecny's stats". I mean, that exact statement could have been posted word-for-word in Crouse's section and yet it wasn't even brought up.
They're basically admitting that they don't think a smart player who is elite defensively at the junior level (admittedly something I'm not sure means much), an elite puck possession player by all accounts, and has some elite offensive skills won't be a NHL player because he possibly he had a low on-ice shooting percentage in the OHL and played on a crappy team.
OldTimeHockey said:
Still somewhere between 21-25. From the NAS-CHI thread:
L K said:
GhostofPotvin29
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CarltonTheBear said:
They're not saying he won't be an NHL player at all. In fact, they say "he's most definitely a first round pick."
Potvin29 said:
I was talking about the fact that they gave him the lowest success rate of the prospects that they looked at. But, that's fair. They do seem slightly more pro-Crouse than others have been. I can amend my statement to:
"There's a bunch of people out there who think that a smart player who is elite defensively at the junior level (admittedly something I'm not sure means much), an elite puck possession player by all accounts, and has some elite offensive skills won't be a very good NHLer because he possibly he had a low on-ice shooting percentage in the OHL and played on a crappy team."
I don't think that really changes the general point I'm talking about though in regards to Crouse and how people are relying too heavily on points-per-game here.
GhostofPotvin29
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CarltonTheBear said:
But to go back to your previous post where you mention Kocency and why he is given more benefit of the doubt than Crouse with respect to his team - it's because he has that better 16 year old PPG season that Crouse doesn't have.
All they are basically saying is that players with Crouse's points totals don't typically amount to much more than a 2nd/3rd liner in the NHL, if they amount to more then they are the exception, and a team shouldn't use a top 10 pick on him. He might very well be worth a top 10 selection in the end, but it's basically playing the odds. Odds are he won't be one of the exceptions to the rule - but he might be, and that's the risk a team will have to weigh.
LuncheonMeat
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CarltonTheBear said:
So, if the Wild hold on to win today St. Louis is out, and the Leafs worst-case scenario moves to 24th pick.
On a side note, if St. Louis is out in the first round is Hitchcock out? And does he become a prime candidate for the Leaf's coaching position if so??
Edit: Yikes, just did a quick look at notice that Hitchcock is from Edmonton (which probably means nothing). Chiarelli + Hitchcock + McDavid, etc. might not be quite so bad next year. Leafs will have less competition for the bottom of the standings, so at least there's that.
Most likely 23 or 24. The Leafs are already assured of at least 24 by virtue of the fact, Minnesota and Chicago both had less points than Nashville and one will advance to the conference final. To get to 23, probably one of the following scenarios would need to happen. Ottawa upsets Montreal and Detroit beat Tampa. That would create a Detroit versus Washington or Islanders match-up. Any one of those advancing to the Conference final would push the Leafs up a notch to 23rd. Or Montreal could win but lose to either Washington or the Isles, if the Wings beat Tampa. That could also push the pick up. So the Leafs have 24th as the worse possibly scenario, with probably a 50-50 chance of getting to 23rd. Any higher than that would require major upset like the Flames beating Anaheim or someone upsetting the Rangers. I don't expect either of those things to happen, but you never know.CarltonTheBear said:
I am really hoping the Leafs can make a sensible trade at the deadline to acquire another 1st rounder in the 7-17 range. There are a few teams in there who might be willing to shake things up. I think any of the following: Philly, Dallas, San Jose, Colorado, LA, Boston or Edmonton. Some of those teams have serious holes on their bluelines, so Phaneuf might be attractive, or any kind of Kessel deal might yield a package that includes a 1st round from this year's draft. It should be interesting.
Coco-puffs
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slapshot said:
I think you misunderstand the way the second round matchups occur. Its always within the same division, unless the wildcard team crossed over to another division. In the east, every series was within the same division. In the west, only the Jets crossed over to the Pacific division.
The second round matchups will be:
NYR vs Was/NYI
Mtl vs Det/Tampa
Ana vs Cal
Chi vs Min
Best case scenario:
Was or NYI beat NYR
Det beats Tampa and then beats Mtl
Cal beats Ana
(Doesn't matter who wins between Min/Chi as they both finished below Nashville.)
Right now they sit at 24. They can move up to 21 at best, and only if the scenarios above play out.
Jolly good show chaps
Member
Based on the above if I was offered the 23rd pick right now I'd bite your hand off
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
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So, Cox mentioned that the Bruins had interest in Dion at the deadline and a Phaneuf to the Oil deal might make sense now.
Seems like adding two and two and getting five to me.
I've heard it mentioned that Dion wants to be in the U.S. Due to his wife's career, who knows?
Any thoughts on what could be a both acceptable and realistic return?
Seems like adding two and two and getting five to me.
I've heard it mentioned that Dion wants to be in the U.S. Due to his wife's career, who knows?
Any thoughts on what could be a both acceptable and realistic return?
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Yeah, that pick and draisaitl would be the dream scenario, plus a salary dump for Dion,'Reimer and a 4th or something.
Heroic Shrimp
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freer said:
Which is why he mentioned it regarding speculation of a Phaneuf to Edmonton trade.
GhostofPotvin29
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But that 2016 draft...
http://twitter.com/ShawnReis/status/593104118207623169
http://twitter.com/ShawnReis/status/593104118207623169
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Damn, he'll look good on the Oilers.
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