herman said:
Coco-puffs said:
That's great and all... Holland had been terrible on the PK in his limited time this year. Maybe he deserved a longer rope based on his performance last year, but Babcock also had practices and the preseason to observe if he wasn't doing the job he wanted that aren't contained in your stats. You can pull up all the stats you want from last year, Holland wasn't performing THIS YEAR on the PK. And your 4th line center should be one of your better penalty killers unless you have Patrice Bergeron in your lineup.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sensing some aggression/frustration here? Sorry if I put you off in anyway; I was just trying to lay out the numbers with a bit more sample size. I know we both want what's best for the team and we simply have differing views.
I'm of the mind that Holland's stats are a bit tanked by only being on the ice in the early goings of this season when the defense and goaltending was in the dumps. I don't subscribe to the 4th line center having to be the best PKer. Best PKer should be whoever can play the PK game the best (dogged retrieval, speed). 4th C should be whoever can help truck the puck into the offensive zone with regularity, with the least scoring upside of the four Cs.
Sorry for the impression that I was frustrated with you or being aggressive. Not my intention at all nor how I'm feeling about you or anyone on the board. I just have a difference of opinion from you and believe it or not its not a "I don't like fancystats" view. I just think 5-on-5 Corsi and Fenwick are somewhat overrated. I think other metrics need to be developed that give a better picture of a players impact.
For instance: I'm not a fan of Hunwick and Polak on the ice together as much as you are, BUT, just looking at their Corsi undervalues the impact they actually have. Yes, they don't drive possession like Gardiner and Carrick do, but, when Gardiner and Carrick eventually lose the puck (and they don't have it 45% of the time according to Corsi) they still have a job to do in terms of containing the threat and eventually getting the puck back.
Some stats to throw at you (all 5-on-5 unadjusted from this season):
Gardiner CA/60 55.41 FA/60 42.81 SA/60 31.14 GA/60 2.78
Carrick CA/60 53.41 FA/60 40.15 SA/60 29.55 GA/60 3.16
Hunwick CA/60 61.18 FA/60 42.41 SA/60 29.55 GA/60 2.43
Polak CA/60 65.38 FA/60 48.76 SA/60 34.05 GA/60 2.45
Take a look at the last column. Why do Hunwick and Polak, despite being our shittiest "possession" defensemen, have GA/60 rates that are much better than the rest of our defenders? (Gardiner is 3rd, the rest are all above 3.0 and Marincin is sitting at an ugly 3.92)
In Hunwick's case he may allow 6 more shot attempts than Gardiner over 60 minutes, but less of them hit the net. Good positioning? Forcing shots from further out? Luck? Well, luck does have a bit to play into it as his PDO is 101.9 but Carrick and Gardiner also sit above 101.
In Polak's case, his PDO is below 100, so its not necessarily luck that makes his GA/60 much lower than the rest of the defensemen. I think he does a pretty good job of keeping shots from the outside and boxing out his man in front so the goalie can see shots.
Furthermore, Gardiner and Carrick get much more favorable offensive zone starts compared to the other pairings. Babcock leans much more on the other four defensemen for defensive zone draws and I'm sure that hurts their possession stats.
Anyways, that was a step away from our discussion of Holland vs Smith. If we had more forwards who could handle PK, especially ones who could win a draw on the right side, I'd much rather have Holland in the lineup over Ben Smith as well.
