2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[Highlander]

Is Mogan injured? :'(

 

[herman]

I think this is a really charitable, optimistic read of what's going on with the team right now, but I'd find it plausible if:

1. Babcock weren't playing -- game in, game out -- the sort of guys he's always played because he thinks they give his teams the best chance to win (Komarov, Polak, Martin, Andersen), instead of younger, NHL-ready players who have the potential to be developed into two-way players (or giving his goalie a break). All indications coming out of training camp were that Babcock's decisions were keyed to his desire to have the best chance to win every night -- all that's changed is that they're no longer winning, so those favorably disposed toward him (lookit that Team Canada record!) have to connect a mediocre record and relatively poor play with an unchanging line-up. If this were a teaching/development year, we'd see more things like players being tested in different roles for a decent run of games.

and

2. We could actually point to some evidence that, over the 20-30 games that the team's been playing well below their abilities (in terms of 'outputs'), Babcock's development plan is producing any tangible improvements. Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support.  I also don't buy that shot differentials are an 'output' -- positive shot differentials, out-Corsi-ing the opposition, winning the scoring chance battle, etc. are, and have long been understood as, the controllable 'inputs' that can lead to desired outcomes. Redefining the 'inputs' down to the stuff Babcock's 'measuring' -- attention to detail, decision making within the system, ability to 'dig in' -- seems, to me, a lot like what the Carlyle apologists were doing  a few years back, albeit with a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

Let's clarify inputs and outputs here.

Shots attempts are outputs; their frequency merely makes them a more stable metric than goals. We know and agree that good shooting metrics generally lead to more goals and, in turn, victories.

Good shooting metrics are fueled by micro outputs like zone exits and entries with possession (possession in general), successful passes. How are these achieved?

Inputs are the system decisions, player deployment, positioning, and play execution. Basically all measurable stats are outputs because they are an event outcome. Attention to detail and decision making within the system refers to which side of the puck the players aim to play on.

JvR's defensive stats are usually not great because he tends to angle his body and stick in the defensive zone to pounce on turnovers, rather than to stay between the puck and the net to generate them. Coaches sort of live with that in JvR because he tends to also make good on them when the puck goes his way. Hyman is the opposite and generally angles the puck into an uncomfortable side for the carrier to control; then he takes it and chips it ahead, or establishes body positioning and shelters the puck up the ice before dumping it. Babcock loves Hyman because he does this every single time he has a play on the puck.

See here for a JvR example of inattention to detail.
https://theathletic.com/183669/2017/12/13/bourne-on-details-staying-above-and-the-inches-that-cost-the-leafs-against-the-flyers/

Marner was getting a lot of penalties earlier in the season because he didn't establish strong positioning (and his body isn't the kind to overcome suboptimal positioning) and had to rely on his stick to try to fish the puck out. Nylander has been really good along the boards since halfway through last year because he's been protecting his stick with his sneaky strong legs and taking smart angles under the defense.

 

[herman]

Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support. 

[...]

a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

I want to touch on this a bit more specifically. Again I'm not trying to say Babcock is 100% correct, but this is clearly what he's angling for in my observation, and uh I guess his own words.

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/954449787595698176

So are Marner and Nylander struggling under this 'new' directive and expectation? Of course they are. Like I said earlier, they're high octane offensive dynamos who never had to play defense (how friggin lucky are we that Matthews is already well above average there?). So naturally, because this isn't the Matrix, there's a learning curve and there are new challenges every night on the ice. They look slow and stifled at times because they're not playing on instinct (as they were last year for the most part). Babcock is aiming to instill a modicum of consistent defensive play into their instinctual levels, so it is both natural for them to be strong on the puck, well positioned away from the play, and still flex their creativity and dynamism once they earned open ice.

Last season was the confidence builder -- they got their 15+ minutes regardless (and it helped on the scoresheet). This season is the buckle down and work under higher expectations year. So some nights they're going to ride the 4th line where it is impossible for them to cheat for offense because the other two guys on the line don't have the skill to feed it to them. I think it will click for them sooner rather than later and it'll be really scary for many years to come.

As for frittering away their ELCs... I don't think management is as concerned about jumping through this current 'window' regardless of consequence. Sure they still want to win, and doing so during this time would be a nice bonus to allow for some other high priced talent on the roster, but I don't see their actions as going all in at this time. They always knew they'd have to pay these three; they're stocking up on cheap homegrown depth, which is where the savings will be.

 

[L K]

Marner on the 4th line at practice.  Shocking development from Babcock that Marner/Nylander are his go to demotions

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm starting to think all these questionable decisions are intentional.  It's like Babcock is trying to keep the team and, more importantly, his young players from really breaking out.  Like he needs to prevent them from getting PAID too much too soon.  And he's been able to secretly do it under the guise of teaching them to play "right".  It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but more and more I believe it to be true.

I don't buy this at all.  The coach won't care what players get paid or intentionally try to keep stats down to help contracts.  They're paid to produce wins, and right now things aren't going so well.

But wasn't one of the big sticking points with Babcock that he wanted a voice in the personnel decisions?  I don't think it's far fetched that he's controlling the development of the team (to the extent that he can) to keep control of the roster and cap.

It's actually a very forward thinking proposition.  Before your offensive stars break out offensively, force them to learn the game defensively.  Which will no doubt degrade their offensive statistics keeping their salaries down in the short term.  Nylander is a prime example - he's gone from a guaranteed 6-7M long term contract to what will likely amount to a 3-4M 2 year bridge deal.  That buys the team more time to grow, compete, and deal with the cap.

Think of Matthews - literally the only way to slow him down from putting up 100+ points is to control his ice time.  Well, that and Hyman

Like I said, it's definitely conspiracy theory-ist... But I think the mgmt team might be that smart...

 

[mr grieves]

I think this is a really charitable, optimistic read of what's going on with the team right now, but I'd find it plausible if:

1. Babcock weren't playing -- game in, game out -- the sort of guys he's always played because he thinks they give his teams the best chance to win (Komarov, Polak, Martin, Andersen), instead of younger, NHL-ready players who have the potential to be developed into two-way players (or giving his goalie a break). All indications coming out of training camp were that Babcock's decisions were keyed to his desire to have the best chance to win every night -- all that's changed is that they're no longer winning, so those favorably disposed toward him (lookit that Team Canada record!) have to connect a mediocre record and relatively poor play with an unchanging line-up. If this were a teaching/development year, we'd see more things like players being tested in different roles for a decent run of games.

and

2. We could actually point to some evidence that, over the 20-30 games that the team's been playing well below their abilities (in terms of 'outputs'), Babcock's development plan is producing any tangible improvements. Marner and Nylander don't look, to me, like they're playing better two-way games. They just look stifled, uncertain, and often without adequate support.  I also don't buy that shot differentials are an 'output' -- positive shot differentials, out-Corsi-ing the opposition, winning the scoring chance battle, etc. are, and have long been understood as, the controllable 'inputs' that can lead to desired outcomes. Redefining the 'inputs' down to the stuff Babcock's 'measuring' -- attention to detail, decision making within the system, ability to 'dig in' -- seems, to me, a lot like what the Carlyle apologists were doing  a few years back, albeit with a narrative appended that justifies frittering away the cost-controlled years of elite talent.

Let's clarify inputs and outputs here.

[...snip!]

Marner was getting a lot of penalties earlier in the season because he didn't establish strong positioning (and his body isn't the kind to overcome suboptimal positioning) and had to rely on his stick to try to fish the puck out. Nylander has been really good along the boards since halfway through last year because he's been protecting his stick with his sneaky strong legs and taking smart angles under the defense.

Yes, herman. I too pay my dollars/month to Mirtle and read Justin Bourne. Nylander's doing about what he was doing last season, but the way they're playing, his greatest strength -- controlled zone entries -- doesn't get used, despite the fact that this skill is generally more useful in winning games both in the season and playoffs than chipping and chasing and angling oneself safely. Marner's taking fewer penlties and that's nice, but he -- and the team as a whole -- can't get anything going offensively, so they're drawing (even?) fewer penalties, so... it's a wash.

My point remains: you should have something other than video of a few isolated plays to evidence that there's anything good coming out of this most recent exercise in Babcockian egotism and stubbornness.

As for Babcock in his own words bit (reply #762) on the terrible line-up decisions... echoes of Randy and 'compete.' Loosen your helmet. It's nonsense.

 

[mr grieves]

Like I said, it's definitely conspiracy theory-ist... But I think the mgmt team might be that smart...

Lou's shortsightedness and feeble conservatism is now 12th dimensional chess, Babcock quoting George W Bush's "decider" line is good.

Trump has ruined y'all.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/954449787595698176

Komarov's getting re-signed. The new Dan Cleary.

 

[BrownRolo]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/954449787595698176

Komarov's getting re-signed. The new Dan Cleary.

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Play him 4th line minutes plus PK.

 

[hockeyfan1]

It's starting to sound bleak around here, so for a deviation from the norm of conversation...

(Older January article): 
How Connor Carrick keeps himself in good health in terms of food choices/dietary regimen...

[tweet]949285434856652801[/tweet]

and, coffee for athletes:

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

 

[Strangelove]

You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hyman more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.

Actually, I've shown you why Babcock chooses to deploy them more, but I didn't demonstrated how that has been effective (if at all). The results that we look at are outputs: goals, points, even shot differentials. They're all the end result of a sequence of events predicated on a) system, b) decision making within the system, c) physical capability to execute the system, and d) external forces (i.e. the other team's tactics). We don't have the micro-data to analyze this publicly, but according to Justin Bourne in the podcast referenced previously, these Babcock favourites do it the 'right' way Babcock wants, with great consistency. Where they occasionally falter is in talent-level execution of certain plays, and in Komarov's case, his physical capability. Their system hasn't really changed since Babcock took over, btw. The increase in dumping and chasing is more because other teams have adjusted to the Leafs and are treating them as threats.

Ultimately, the 'program' is not really for these favourite depth guys: they already know what they're doing. It's for the Marners and Nylanders (and similar Marlies) who are so blessed with talent that they've never had to deal with the details (these are the types of players we want to be drafting, right?). Remember Kessel's response to his junior coach who sort of got mad that his lackadaisical defense cost them a goal? "I'll just get a another". And he did and routinely could in that league. In the NHL, that's not a guarantee, and our talent isn't quite at that level. Look at how Gretzky coached. Without a doubt one of the greatest offensive players and minds for the game, overflowing with talent. Couldn't coach his teams worth a lick because all his detail processing was subconscious (so he couldn't communicate that) and I'd say he rarely ever had to try.

What can be controlled though is how players position themselves relative to the puck and play, what they are thinking regarding the game states, etc. So in this developmental period of time, and stage of the build, and segment of the regular season, ice time reward gets allocated according to who is most successful at doing what the coach wants, rather than who lays out the most points. Babcock is in the unique situation where he has both the chutzpah, tenure, and cachet to pull it off.

All I'm suggesting here is that the majority of our analysis is judging by results, and Babcock is judging by the inputs he can see. Rightly or wrongly, this is not irrational stubbornness. His preferred style is simple and conservative (and hella boring). Remember his comments about the World Cup at the beginning of last year when he was asked about Team North America? I'm paraphrasing, but it was to the effect of, "Looks fun, eh? but I like to win." And Team Canada won there, and at Sochi before; with overwhelming talent, yes, but playing a very staid, stifling style, and letting scoring talent overmatch in the offensive zone once set up, or off of turnovers.

I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.

 

[L K]

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Right now the Leafs have Leivo, Soshnikov, and Kapanen who could easily slit into the lineup.  That ignores free agency and further development from Andreas Johnson.  I think Uncle Leo needs to find a new home next year.

Would he be ok on the 4th line, sure.  That?s what happens when you sign Matt Martin to. Multi-year contract though.

 

[Chris]

If Kapanen isn't in the lineup full time next year (and maybe even at the end of this year, depending on moves/injuries), there is definitely something wrong with Leafs management.

 

[herman]

I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.

I gather that you are frustrated in the team and understandably so. All I was trying to do was translate why Babcock was making these decisions (which I don?t necessarily agree with all of). Babcock has been consistent about this his entire time here (gud pro). Last year was fun because he kind of let the kids do their thing to build their confidence. This year they are getting Rielly?d and since they?re the offense drivers, their dip from the steepened learning curve is more apparent.

I?m not saying our analysis of results is wrong, or that Babcock is ignorant of them. It comes down to what his priorities are, and pushing Marner and Nylander into playing with Datsyukian effort every night he believes will yield a greater, longer lasting reward down the line.

 

[Strangelove]

I tried to follow your post but to be honest (and glib), your rationalization of Babcock's decision-making seems to me to be totally bonkers. You seem to be suggesting that our analysis is judged by "results" (i.e. what is happening on the ice) and that's somehow wrong. You also seem to be suggesting that Komarov isn't good, even by Babcock's bizarro-world metrics (which seem to ignore points, wins, possession, shots and, apparently, anything actually happening on the ice) but that's fine because it's contributing to a culture of good decision-making... or something.

The Leafs have played a sub-optimal line-up for months. That line-up has played objectively terribly for months, struggling in all aspects of the game. Babcock has failed to make adjustments for months - even obvious ones. Everybody is frustrated.

None of that suggests that Babcock is doing a good job.

I gather that you are frustrated in the team and understandably so. All I was trying to do was translate why Babcock was making these decisions (which I don?t necessarily agree with all of). Babcock has been consistent about this his entire time here (gud pro). Last year was fun because he kind of let the kids do their thing to build their confidence. This year they are getting Rielly?d and since they?re the offense drivers, their dip from the steepened learning curve is more apparent.

I?m not saying our analysis of results is wrong, or that Babcock is ignorant of them. It comes down to what his priorities are, and pushing Marner and Nylander into playing with Datsyukian effort every night he believes will yield a greater, longer lasting reward down the line.

Fair enough. At some point, however, Babcock has to realize that it isn?t the team?s effort that?s deficient but the system - his system - itself. There is a plethora of evidence to reinforce that conclusion.

To insist on playing in a way that is demonstrably unsuitable to the team as currently constructed - particularly when there are clear viable alternatives to the current system - is the height of sturbborness (and, I would add, stupidity).

 

[herman]

Fair enough. At some point, however, Babcock has to realize that it isn?t the team?s effort that?s deficient but the system - his system - itself. There is a plethora of evidence to reinforce that conclusion.

To insist on playing in a way that is demonstrably unsuitable to the team as currently constructed - particularly when there are clear viable alternatives to the current system - is the height of sturbborness (and, I would add, stupidity).

This system is the same one that they used in 2015-16 to win the Auston Matthews sweepstakes (and do pretty well in team CF%), as well as the same system used to get into 6 games of the playoffs last season. The major change has been other teams preparing differently against the Leafs (no longer an afterthought, or backup goalie night), and our players' general inability to adjust consistently.

Nothing major has changed other than some players being held to higher standards now for their play away from the puck. Yes, that naturally curtails their offense for now, until they figure out how to do both (which they will). There's a process to playing that Babcock believes leads to winning and that's what these decisions are in service of: sticking with the process. Play the right way and Babcock gives you the minutes and over the long run, that player should start seeing results. You can hear these same platitudes in the response of the players to some of the recent losses as they focus on the consistency and cleaning up mistakes, rather than just bemoaning that they're not scoring.

As for overplaying some vets with down years, yeah, that's been my gripe with them since 2015, but I understand the principle they're going for. There are no gifts in the lineup for the younger players, so they have to prove beyond doubt they belong regardless of their waiver exemption.

Some of the vets are enjoying these gifted roster spots by virtue of consistently being good role models who (once upon a time) could produce, even though they lack the talent. Other than Komarov (and sort of Hyman), they're at the fringes of the lineup and wouldn't be a huge net difference to the fortunes of the team if replaced by the maybe better Marlie while our main horses are still technically foals. I would much rather have a Leivo and Kapanen and Johnsson in the lineup getting reps and developing their games at the NHL level, but I also don't mind some of them getting key minutes in the AHL and rounding out their games to suit potential roles on the Leafs (e.g. Kapanen learning PK).

 

[herman]

Basically, trying to watch the game through "Babcock's eyes" is helping me have fewer cardiac events this season. I appreciate a coach that never gets too high on the wins and never too low on the losses. He sounds like he's old school and archaic about the way he sees the game, but it demonstrates a strong understanding of PDO effects.

 

[BrownRolo]

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Definitely 1.5 mil per year.

 

[BrownRolo]

I'd be fine if he re-signed something like a 3 year, 4.5 million deal.

Oh Jesus please tell me you don't mean per year...

Right now the Leafs have Leivo, Soshnikov, and Kapanen who could easily slit into the lineup.  That ignores free agency and further development from Andreas Johnson.  I think Uncle Leo needs to find a new home next year.

Would he be ok on the 4th line, sure.  That?s what happens when you sign Matt Martin to. Multi-year contract though.

Kapanen is a 3rd line+ player. I don't want him wasting away on the 4th line.

Leivo is a meh player but he isn't a PK specialist like Leo. He is more of a PP or 3rd liner.

Soshnikov looked awesome when he first came up but since his concussion I don't know. He isn't the same.

If they sign Leo as a strictly 4th line player and PK for the amount I said it would be totally worth it. But does Babcock play him 4th line? Doubt it.