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2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

Ennis/Lindholm/Brown/Hyman/Marleau/Levio/Gauthier/Johnsson have combined for a whopping 3 even-strength goals and one was into an empty net.
 
What about (until the return of Matthews and that Blond kid)

Kapenen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Brown (Leivo)
Hyman-Marleau-Leivo  (Brown)
Lindholm-Goat-Ennis

I mention Marleau at C as he is not keeping up on the wings, perhaps better dishing it and hitting the rebounds.

Gardiner-Rielly (play them 25 a game). The rest rotate and put on spin dry
?????-Zaitzev
Borgman- Oz

Could Hainsey or Zaitzev play the Left side.
 
Unfortunately Marleau isn?t going to be able to keep up with the rights of playing centre (a lot more stop and start and engaging attackers), as Babcock discovered last year.
 
https://theathletic.com/627400/2018/11/02/how-the-maple-leafs-have-quietly-changed-the-way-they-defend-top-lines/

Confirmation that Babcock/Smith are deploying their top 4 pairs on matchups a bit differently this year: Rielly-Hainsey against ?heavier? (read: slower) top lines, and Gardiner-Zaitsev against skill lines (faster).

Rielly-Hainsey are also getting less of the DZ starts, which has shown up on the CF% for them and the pairing that is taking them instead.
 
herman said:
He also addresses my least favourite play of all:
Forward down low curls up and feeds a pass low to high for a defenseman to reset the cycle, but the defenseman fires a screen-free slapper at the goalie. This is Roman Polak and Ron Hainsey in a nutshell.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I see this happening a fair bit with a number of forwards, but especially Kapanen, as he's go so much speed, when he gets the zone and stops, he's got a ton of separation from the chasing player. He throws it back to the point almost as routine, which isn't necessarily a bad play, but a shot from that area just doesn't score goals anymore without pinballing around. When Marner gains the zone, his first instinct is to look at the slot, a trailing forward perhaps, or across the seam for a high danger chance for him, the reversal to the point is a consolation play to simply keep possession.

Another thing that bugs me constantly (tough to get traction I suppose due to his start) is Reilly's instincts with the puck in the O zone. I can't count the number of times he's killed plays by simply floating an unscreened wrist shot into the goalie's chest. I think at some point in his career someone's told him it's never a bad idea to throw the puck at the net, but it's a momentum killer the way he's doing it.
 
Frycer14 said:
herman said:
He also addresses my least favourite play of all:
Forward down low curls up and feeds a pass low to high for a defenseman to reset the cycle, but the defenseman fires a screen-free slapper at the goalie. This is Roman Polak and Ron Hainsey in a nutshell.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I see this happening a fair bit with a number of forwards, but especially Kapanen, as he's go so much speed, when he gets the zone and stops, he's got a ton of separation from the chasing player. He throws it back to the point almost as routine, which isn't necessarily a bad play, but a shot from that area just doesn't score goals anymore without pinballing around. When Marner gains the zone, his first instinct is to look at the slot, a trailing forward perhaps, or across the seam for a high danger chance for him, the reversal to the point is a consolation play to simply keep possession.

Another thing that bugs me constantly (tough to get traction I suppose due to his start) is Reilly's instincts with the puck in the O zone. I can't count the number of times he's killed plays by simply floating an unscreened wrist shot into the goalie's chest. I think at some point in his career someone's told him it's never a bad idea to throw the puck at the net, but it's a momentum killer the way he's doing it.
Click to expand...

The play back to the defenseman is fine as long as the defenseman uses their brain and doesn't just do a quick slap/snap shot.  Even holding the puck for a second to let traffic get to the net would be fine.  It's just that a guy like Hainsey just default fires the puck away, whether it is in the defensive or offensive zones.
 
L K said:
Frycer14 said:
herman said:
He also addresses my least favourite play of all:
Forward down low curls up and feeds a pass low to high for a defenseman to reset the cycle, but the defenseman fires a screen-free slapper at the goalie. This is Roman Polak and Ron Hainsey in a nutshell.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I see this happening a fair bit with a number of forwards, but especially Kapanen, as he's go so much speed, when he gets the zone and stops, he's got a ton of separation from the chasing player. He throws it back to the point almost as routine, which isn't necessarily a bad play, but a shot from that area just doesn't score goals anymore without pinballing around. When Marner gains the zone, his first instinct is to look at the slot, a trailing forward perhaps, or across the seam for a high danger chance for him, the reversal to the point is a consolation play to simply keep possession.

Another thing that bugs me constantly (tough to get traction I suppose due to his start) is Reilly's instincts with the puck in the O zone. I can't count the number of times he's killed plays by simply floating an unscreened wrist shot into the goalie's chest. I think at some point in his career someone's told him it's never a bad idea to throw the puck at the net, but it's a momentum killer the way he's doing it.
Click to expand...

The play back to the defenseman is fine as long as the defenseman uses their brain and doesn't just do a quick slap/snap shot.  Even holding the puck for a second to let traffic get to the net would be fine.  It's just that a guy like Hainsey just default fires the puck away, whether it is in the defensive or offensive zones.
Click to expand...

Yeah there needs to be useful traffic.

Rielly?s soft floaters are by design and it?s not actually Rielly?s problem but the forwards who aren?t tipping it that leads to the puck-in-the-crest result. The forwards are supposed to converge through the slot as the puck is coming through (moving screens).
 
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1058363447333867520

Matthews is one of the players that routinely overachieves his expected goals (location-based average SH%).
 
These are very cool:
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1059499734631616513
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1059499105121169408
 
Oh great, Gauthier's making me agree with Jeff O'Neill.

Where were these charts when I was passionately defending Philippe Dupuis' play in 2011?
 
herman said:
[...]
What I?ve really come to understand from doing this project is that we can?t live by what?s counted for as shots on goal in an official capacity. The only way you can be 100 percent accurate is if you have two sets of eyes on every game ? live on the game and then another person on the computer reconciling what?s coming in. We have first, second and third looks at every chance. Our numbers will never be the same as the NHL?s. And we?re OK with that because we?re doing the due diligence that needs to be done. This affects shooting percentages, save percentages, things that are coming into play when contracts are being discussed.

Distance from the net, plus deflections on the ice don?t go in as frequently as ones off the ice. It wasn?t really that hard of a save. When you look at our designations, your goalie can never let a red one in. You need saves on the yellow ones and you can live with goals on the green ones because you?re only supposed to give up maybe six a night. And one of every three of the high-percentage shots goes in every night. One of three, one of three ? breakaways, odd-man rushes, broken plays, it always comes back to that range.
Click to expand...

That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).
Click to expand...

Good thing I didn't bother looking up more numbers about this.

https://theathletic.com/643939/2018/11/10/tulloch-the-value-of-the-stretch-pass-and-how-the-leafs-can-better-utilize-it/

Screen-Shot-2018-11-09-at-2.58.10-AM.png


If that's the gamble (and note that a scoring chance off a successful stretch pass is a partial/full breakaway, which has a 27-30% chance of resulting in a goal), then yeah, of course they're going to fire away (oh man, wait 'til you see Liljegren on the Leafs). If a stretch pass completes, it's either a rush chance, or an opportunity to set up on a panicking defense. If it misses, it's either an icing, or a turnover in the other zone with all players on top of the puck.

What we've seen lately is better forward support recognizing when the stretch play is not the right option and swinging lower (F3 below the blue), and generally more skill with the puck up and down the lineup to facilitate holding and waiting a little bit longer.

The guys they're firing up the ice are the diggers who aren't really handlers (Hyman, Brown) or speedsters (Kapanen, Ennis). If you can spring Kapanen for 3 breakaways a game, he's going to average out just a hair under a goal per game if he only had average skill (he has more than that).
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/kpapetti/status/1061433150692302848
S?gonna be beautiful.
Click to expand...

So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
So anybody picturing TML (Timothy Mattias Liljegren) getting called up to TML this season?
Click to expand...

Anything's possible but I wouldn't count on it. Still seeing comments that his defensive game needs work. A full season getting top pairing minutes on the Marlies is probably the best plan.
 
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