2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
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Strangelove
New member
herman said:
I wonder if Babcock made him write a list of the Leafs' worst defenders before he was sent down.
lc9 said:
Of all the persistent Babcock critiques, this is the dumbest. There is a heap of data showing that playing a good starter after 0 days rest turns him into a poor backup. It is just about the only thing we know about goalie performance publicly. Since Andersen needs rest, he definitely should only be playing one of the b2b games. There?s just no doubt about it. As for which game he plays, it just isn?t going to make a difference ? there won?t be a detectable difference in total expected points gained over the 2 games.
Nik Bethune said:
I think the data comment in princedpw's post was in response to Andersen playing BOTH games of the back-to-back, not just the first one.
Kin
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
That's what I mean though. I can't claim to be an expert on all of the numbers crunched on this one(and, just for instance, if they apply equally to all goalies irrespective of age or whatever) but I think that there can be specific circumstances which warrant making a move in the face of the total aggregated data.
Like, for instance, if playing the second game of a back to back turns a good starter into a bad backup but the alternative is going with a bad backup anyway...maybe you give it a shot and see if Andersen can manage.
OldTimeHockey
Active member
Thoughts on the Leafs ability to move some salary out with the return of Marner coming. Moore should also be coming back at some point. I think Engvall and Mikheyev also afford Leafs the ability to move on from Hyman.
This may free up the opportunity to get a half decent back up as well as another half decent defense.
This may free up the opportunity to get a half decent back up as well as another half decent defense.
Andy007
Active member
I wonder if we might see Johnsson shipped out for a competent back up (and maybe a veteran D man). I'm not sure Johnsson really fits anywhere in the top 6 on this team and they have some viable bottom 6 options. Kerfoot, at the same cap hit, can slide into his spot on left wing or play centre and you're shedding more cap with moving him out over Hyman (while probably getting more quality in return too).
Phileas Fogg
New member
Bullfrog said:
I think how to afford an NHL quality defense next season is an even more challenging question.
Phileas Fogg
New member
Nik Bethune said:
It's somewhat humorous that the conversation has changed from "Andersen is playing way too much and doesn't have any gas for the playoffs, terrible coaching" to "let's consider playing him on back to backs" ;D
Odds to win the 2nd game aside, I'd be fairly confident in saying that if Andersen gets injured, the season is lost, so I'd say that's reason enough not to play him on consecutive nights.
This is a problem for Dubas to solve, not the coach/players, imo.
Kin
New member
Frycer14 said:
Ok, but I never said the former so take it up with someone who did.
Frycer14 said:
I don't think there's any reason to believe playing two nights in a row, occasionally, will significantly increase odds of injury.
Seriously, the way some of you talk about Andersen makes me effectively think the Leafs are more or less doomed regardless. "The only way to win is if we do everything we can not to strain our fragile, fragile Goalie" isn't filling me with confidence.
The playoffs are a long and tiring stretch that demand a degree of endurance. If playing the occasional back to back in the early part of the season while the Leafs don't have their backup situation sorted means he can't be effective come playoff time there's no way he'll make it through the playoffs regardless.
Nik Bethune said:
It is quite possible (likely even) that Andersen would be better, even on 0 days rest, because Hutch has been that bad. But it does seem to be the general consensus that a goalie can?t play all the games these days (I don?t have data on what happens when a goalie plays 40 vs 50, 60, 70 games but I?m assuming that after 70, things get pretty grim because nobody in the NHL does it these days). So if you are going to rest a guy, one of the nights of a b2b is the optimal time to do it. If you feel you can never rest your starter because your backup is that bad, you?ve got to get a new backup.
As for whether to rest your starter the first night vs the second, or against the stronger opponent vs the weaker, I?m claiming it is not going to matter. In order for it to matter, choosing Andersen over Hutch in one game would have to change the leafs probability of winning by a lot and choosing Andersen over Hutch in the other game would have change the leafs probability of winning by only a little. I don?t believe that happens (could explain why later perhaps, but if you think it does happen, how many fractional points could be saved in a b2b? How many over all the leafs b2bs over the entire season?). If it were basketball, the situation could be different, because win probabilities vary far more widely, with ?sure wins? or ?sure losses? coming for certain teams regardless of whether they rest a star, for instance.
Nik Bethune said:
In hindsight, it does seem likely that playing Andersen both nights of a b2b could have resulted in more points.... they certainly would have had a tough time getting fewer! But rather than playing your starter both nights, I think a team should be getting a different backup because it is not sustainable to keep going with that starter and most backups give you as good a chance to win as that starter on the 2nd night.
Kin
New member
princedpw said:
I've been pretty vocal about my feelings that Dubas made a big mistake in signing all 3 of Kerfoot, Kapanen and Johnsson at the expense of bringing in a better back-up goalie and having some wiggle-room cap wise so you don't need to convince me that ultimately that was the better call but, with that said, it's pretty easy to say now that the answer is to bring in a better back-up without really knowing the market for that. Especially with the Leafs being desperate at the moment.
So is playing Andersen in back to backs a sustainable long term strategy? No. Is it maybe the better coaching decision at the moment? I think right now it's hard to see what they've had as being worse.
