2020-2021 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Hobbes]

The Leafs' PP fell off a lot in the '19-20 season (17th in the league in scoring chances under Keefe vs #1 the previous season where the to 4 were still doing split PP time) and was lackluster during the play-in round (2-for-13) so a bit of a shake-up there wouldn't hurt.

I admit I'm not fully enmeshed in the advanced metrics of power play theory but just at a read it feels like scoring chances is not the ideal way to judge a PP's success.

If you want to look at basic PP% instead the Leafs were middle of the pack except for a torrid stretch in December. From Jan 1, 2020 through the stoppage in play they were 14th in the league in PP% which doesn't scream "don't change me." There are reams of caveats to go with that, of course...small sample size, mixing data from both units, etc, etc, etc. Going 15.4% in the play-in round isn't a ringing endorsement for status quo either, although again that comes with a boat-load of caveats.

 

[Kin]

If you want to look at basic PP% instead the Leafs were middle of the pack except for a torrid stretch in December. From Jan 1, 2020 through the stoppage in play they were 14th in the league in PP% which doesn't scream "don't change me."which doesn't scream "don't change me." There are reams of caveats to go with that, of course...small sample size, mixing data from both units, etc, etc, etc. Going 15.4% in the play-in round isn't a ringing endorsement for status quo either, although again that comes with a boat-load of caveats.

Basic PP% isn't ideal either, no but it is a metric by which the Leafs PP was pretty good with the obvious caveat that like all teams with a good PP there would be spots in the season when they were more successful than others.

And again, with regards to the play-in round I think I would probably lean on the the caveats there where we can probably find a nice middle ground for the PP in general along the lines of being open to a change but it perhaps not being a top priority for what ails the team.

 

[herman]

What I'm taking issue with is your new owner-friendly stance on player conduct when it comes to negotiations where Marner "held the team hostage" by negotiating in the media while carving out an exception for Nylander who, I guess, was negotiating the right way for sitting out for half a season.

Haven't I always been management friendly with this group? I don't think that's new.

I didn't enjoy Nylander sitting out (why didn't Dubas offer 6.5 earlier instead of trying to hardball Willy to try to suppress Marner's number), but the main difference is one group stayed silent, ate lumps in the media, suffered a power outage the entire season, got ripped to shreds even further, and resolved to get better and then just quietly did it. The Marner camp elected to play dirty pool to eke out a better deal and has continued to splash that dirty pool water around and gripe about respect. Yeah, the burden of expectations is real, but this is exactly what was fought for, so I don't think they're going to get the benefit of the doubt with regards to sympathy there; it's just reminding people of what they did.

 

[Kin]

Haven't I always been management friendly with this group? I don't think that's new.

In thinking that everything Dubas touches turns to gold, sure. I don't personally recall you being this fierce a defender of Owner's bank accounts but I could be wrong there too.

I didn't enjoy Nylander sitting out (why didn't Dubas offer 6.5 earlier instead of trying to hardball Willy to try to suppress Marner's number), but the main difference is one group stayed silent, ate lumps in the media, suffered a power outage the entire season, got ripped to shreds even further, and resolved to get better and then just quietly did it. The Marner camp elected to play dirty pool to eke out a better deal and has continued to splash that dirty pool water around and gripe about respect. Yeah, the burden of expectations is real, but this is exactly what was fought for, so I don't think they're going to get the benefit of the doubt with regards to sympathy there; it's just reminding people of what they did.

I'm not trying to engender sympathy for Marner and I'm long past the point of expecting most fans to look at players negotiating good deals for themselves as not being the selfish pursuits of greedy jerks who are lucky to be playing a kids game for a living and how they'd play for the Leafs for a buck a year or whatever. "How come some fans are mad at Mitch Marner" isn't a mystery I'm trying to solve. I just reject the notion of "dirty pool" as being something that helps a player and good clean negotiating being what helps management.

Dubas didn't do a very good job of negotiating those three contracts, I guess. I don't see that as personal failings on the part of the players.

 

[Chris]

On the other hand, he is really good on the PK, is willing to sacrifice his body to block shots and plays goalie when necessary. Even uses his tiny body along the boards at times (more than Nylander I think).

Nylander is one of our most effective players along the boards (not in necessarily in the DZ, but definitely everywhere else)

I was thinking more of the neutral zone and dzone. I've seen Marner use his body there and occasionally wedge players off the puck along the boards, which is something that is pretty rare for Nylander (not that Marner does it much). Please don't take this as an attack on Nylander, though I would like to see him use his body more along the boards in the dzone. Maybe it's something that Keefe doesn't encourage with his system as none of the Leaf forwards do it very often. But there are definitely times when it would be more effective than what they are doing which is a lot of stick checking and guessing where the player/puck are going.

 

[herman]

Haven't I always been management friendly with this group? I don't think that's new.

In thinking that everything Dubas touches turns to gold, sure. I don't personally recall you being this fierce a defender of Owner's bank accounts but I could be wrong there too.

I didn't enjoy Nylander sitting out (why didn't Dubas offer 6.5 earlier instead of trying to hardball Willy to try to suppress Marner's number), but the main difference is one group stayed silent, ate lumps in the media, suffered a power outage the entire season, got ripped to shreds even further, and resolved to get better and then just quietly did it. The Marner camp elected to play dirty pool to eke out a better deal and has continued to splash that dirty pool water around and gripe about respect. Yeah, the burden of expectations is real, but this is exactly what was fought for, so I don't think they're going to get the benefit of the doubt with regards to sympathy there; it's just reminding people of what they did.

I'm not trying to engender sympathy for Marner and I'm long past the point of expecting most fans to look at players negotiating good deals for themselves as not being the selfish pursuits of greedy jerks who are lucky to be playing a kids game for a living and how they'd play for the Leafs for a buck a year or whatever. "How come some fans are mad at Mitch Marner" isn't a mystery I'm trying to solve. I just reject the notion of "dirty pool" as being something that helps a player and good clean negotiating being what helps management.

Dubas didn't do a very good job of negotiating those three contracts, I guess. I don't see that as personal failings on the part of the players.

Maybe I'm not writing so clearly. I am not against the contract amount (star RFAs should get paid).

My issue has always been with how the negotiation was conducted and now expecting the team to apparently show more respect on top of that is just removing any further doubt. I thought I was pretty careful about not pointing this out as a personal failing of the player(s), but rather his camp's penchant for saying exactly the wrong things which has sewered Marner's reputation around the fanbase and compounded the pressure of expectation on him.

 

[Frank E]

Well, they both signed it, right?

Marner, ultimately, can only ask for a certain salary. The decision to actually give it to him is the team's.

I'll stand by my previous statement that this was an agreement that both parties agreed to.  It's not Dubas' fault that Marner isn't performing as well as they'd both have hoped.

And herman can speak for himself, but I read what he's saying is that it's a little ridiculous to use all  of the leverage to get an inflated salary, and then a couple of months later suggest that this inflated salary is stressing him out.

I'm not going to speak for Marner but I'm going to assume that it's not the salary itself that Marner's feeling the weight of but the expectations that come along with it.

I thought that was implied, but thanks for clarifying.

In which case, no, it's not ridiculous for anyone, let alone a young person, to find themselves in a situation they maybe weren't prepared for despite thinking they could handle it easily going in. Especially when those stresses are the realities of the downside of the Toronto media environment for hockey players. It's not ideal for the team if Marner feels negatively impacted by those expectations but to act like you can't understand how it might happen says more about the people pretending to be that naive than it does Marner.

Nah.  He knew what he was doing during those negotiations, he's been an MVP at every level he's played at, he's got a lot of confidence, and he used every bit of leverage because he wanted to get paid like the best player on the team.  That's not someone who gets bent out of shape because some fans expected more and there were some bad phone calls on sports radio.  I think you're being naive.  It's ridiculous for anyone to suggest that he's that sensitive, and for anyone to take that sort of excuse if he were to throw it out there.  You don't bully your way through a contract negotiation then claim being sensitive to criticism.  I don't buy it, and you shouldn't either. 

That said, I still think he's the second best player on this team.  I don't think he's the guy to trade.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

  You don't bully your way through a contract negotiation then claim being sensitive to criticism.  I don't buy it, and you shouldn't either. 

Maybe I'm the one being naive, but I was under the impression that most professional athletes (particularly those 20 years old or whatever he was) place their trust in and leave all the negotiating to the agent. Maybe some of the fans are salty over how it went over, but I don't recall anything marner said or did personally that made me raise an eyebrow - all of it came from his agent and occasionally hockey dad.

Everything i've seen from him makes me think he's a decent enough kid and an amazing playmaker, with his only fault being that Herman thinks Nylander is better than him and has made it his mission to either talk Nylander up or tear Marner down. It's hugely entertaining. 

 

[Kin]

  You don't bully your way through a contract negotiation then claim being sensitive to criticism.  I don't buy it, and you shouldn't either. 

Maybe I'm the one being naive, but I was under the impression that most professional athletes (particularly those 20 years old or whatever he was) place their trust in and leave all the negotiating to the agent. Maybe some of the fans are salty over how it went over, but I don't recall anything marner said or did personally that made me raise an eyebrow - all of it came from his agent and occasionally hockey dad.

Exactly. Leaving aside the extremely ludicrous use of "bully" as it applies to anything a 22 year old kid could do to the multi-billion dollar corporation that employs him, Marner's actual contribution to his negotations was probably sitting at home and playing X-Box after deciding on a number.

But regardless, I'm not claiming Marner was being "sensitive to criticism" or is listening to call in shows and taking the harsh opinions to heart. I'm saying that his contract may have produced expectations, maybe from his employers or within the dressing room or even internally, that are amplified by the media market and that he may not have been personally prepared for despite thinking he may have been.

And, again, I'm not looking to engender sympathy for him, if that's true then overcoming and dealing with those expectations is going to be his responsibility and is part of getting that contract but I'm also not terribly surprised by it or think it's an inexplicable result that couldn't explain part of why he didn't have quite the year he may have(although, again, he was still very good).

But I suppose I'm giving some people too much credit when I'm saying it's a result of naivety as opposed to just the usual anti-player malice we tend to see in said media environment.

 

[Bender]

Well, they both signed it, right?

Marner, ultimately, can only ask for a certain salary. The decision to actually give it to him is the team's.

And herman can speak for himself, but I read what he's saying is that it's a little ridiculous to use all  of the leverage to get an inflated salary, and then a couple of months later suggest that this inflated salary is stressing him out.

I'm not going to speak for Marner but I'm going to assume that it's not the salary itself that Marner's feeling the weight of but the expectations that come along with it. In which case, no, it's not ridiculous for anyone, let alone a young person, to find themselves in a situation they maybe weren't prepared for despite thinking they could handle it easily going in. Especially when those stresses are the realities of the downside of the Toronto media environment for hockey players. It's not ideal for the team if Marner feels negatively impacted by those expectations but to act like you can't understand how it might happen says more about the people pretending to be that naive than it does Marner.

I mean to some degree I feel that in my own job. You get a promotion and it seems fine and you think the expectations are one thing and they end up being another. Especially if you're someone who's hard on yourself and you think that maybe you aren't as valued because you can't meet lofty expectations but maybe expectations are simply unreasonable. I can easily see how a young, super conscientious 22 yr old, pro-athlete or not, could feel that way. Especially if you think that maybe you got questionable advice along the way.

 

[Frank E]

  You don't bully your way through a contract negotiation then claim being sensitive to criticism.  I don't buy it, and you shouldn't either. 

Maybe I'm the one being naive, but I was under the impression that most professional athletes (particularly those 20 years old or whatever he was) place their trust in and leave all the negotiating to the agent. Maybe some of the fans are salty over how it went over, but I don't recall anything marner said or did personally that made me raise an eyebrow - all of it came from his agent and occasionally hockey dad.

I can agree with some points here, but I think at the end of the day he could have simply signed the contract the Leafs were offering.  Maybe you're right, maybe he was on the sidelines while Dad and agent did all the things.  My point was that I doubt it.  This young man has been the best player on every team he's played on, and he's excelled at every level and challenge.  That's not a "aw shucks guys, I just wanted to play hockey, I leave that stuff to my agent" kind of person.  I think Marner wanted the big deal and even his Dad suggested that he should be the captain of the Leafs...and I honestly have zero issue with any of this.  I just don't think the contract weighs on him.

Everything i've seen from him makes me think he's a decent enough kid and an amazing playmaker, with his only fault being that Herman thinks Nylander is better than him and has made it his mission to either talk Nylander up or tear Marner down. It's hugely entertaining.

Don't forget about Justin Holl.

 

[herman]

Everything i've seen from him makes me think he's a decent enough kid and an amazing playmaker, with his only fault being that Herman thinks Nylander is better than him and has made it his mission to either talk Nylander up or tear Marner down. It's hugely entertaining.

Don't forget about Justin Holl.

And Seth Griffith and Zach Hyman's shooting percentage will rebound in 2017-18 and on and Yegor Korshkov has better scoring potential than Pierre Engvall.

 

[Kin]

There's really no way to square the circle of "Marner is a good hockey player so therefore he must have taken point on his negotiations"(which, I mean, on its own...) with the simple fact that nobody can point to anything Marner himself actually said or did with regards to the negotiations.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think Marner put too much pressure on himself to try and live up to the contract instead of just playing. O' Dog mentioned it a few times over the year that he just wanted Marner to stop trying to be a 10 mill dollar player every shift. He'll be fine, no doubt in my mind.

 

[bustaheims]

I think Marner put too much pressure on himself to try and live up to the contract instead of just playing. O' Dog mentioned it a few times over the year that he just wanted Marner to stop trying to be a 10 mill dollar player every shift. He'll be fine, no doubt in my mind.

It's also not unusual for a young player on their first big money contract to put too much pressure on themselves to justify the contract in the first year, and try to do too much. Once he settles back into doing what he does best rather than trying to do too much, he'll be fine.

 

[ZBBM]

Everything i've seen from him makes me think he's a decent enough kid and an amazing playmaker, with his only fault being that Herman thinks Nylander is better than him and has made it his mission to either talk Nylander up or tear Marner down. It's hugely entertaining.

Don't forget about Justin Holl.

And Seth Griffith and Zach Hyman's shooting percentage will rebound in 2017-18 and on and Yegor Korshkov has better scoring potential than Pierre Engvall.

Since you are self-owning you may wish to consider resigning from this site and go on a 7-year retreat focused on introspection and humility.  Only a select few of us on here are right 100% of the time, after all.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think Marner put too much pressure on himself to try and live up to the contract instead of just playing. O' Dog mentioned it a few times over the year that he just wanted Marner to stop trying to be a 10 mill dollar player every shift. He'll be fine, no doubt in my mind.

It's also not unusual for a young player on their first big money contract to put too much pressure on themselves to justify the contract in the first year, and try to do too much. Once he settles back into doing what he does best rather than trying to do too much, he'll be fine.

Exactly. He's not the first to get that big contract, struggle a little, and then pull it back together. Some have never lived up to their contracts, but a good number of them bounce back.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So the Boudreau thing might be a little more than just Friedman's fantasy. Mirtle reported that the Leafs did ask Minnesota for permission to speak to him, but he hasn't been formally interviewed for a job.

He also said that whoever fills that spot, it'll be someone with experience. I wonder if the recently fired Jacques Martin gets a call.

 

[herman]

So the Boudreau thing might be a little more than just Friedman's fantasy. Mirtle reported that the Leafs did ask Minnesota for permission to speak to him, but he hasn't been formally interviewed for a job.

He also said that whoever fills that spot, it'll be someone with experience. I wonder if the recently fired Jacques Martin gets a call.

Especially if Hakstol, a Babcock pick, follows him to his next stop. Spezza/Martin reunion tour?!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Especially if Hakstol, a Babcock pick, follows him to his next stop. Spezza/Martin reunion tour?!

Boudreau running the forwards/powerplay and Martin the defence/PK would definitely be interesting. But seeing as how Boudreau would almost certainly be a 1-year coach I would imagine the other assistant (assuming Hakstol leaves, which I wouldn't be too bummed about) I would guess the other candidate would be someone the Leafs think would be here on a more long-term basis. The team's certainly had a lot of turnover in that department the last few years.

I do like that the team is looking for a very experienced guy though, I think Keefe could use that.