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2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Round 1/Qualifier - Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets

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disco

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( 8 ) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. ( 9 ) Columbus Blue Jackets (Best-of-Five)
Series tied 2-2

Sunday, Aug. 2: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs: Leafs 0 - Jackets 2
Tuesday, Aug. 4: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs: Leafs 3 - Jackets 0
Thursday, Aug. 6: Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets: Leafs 3 - Jackets 4 (O/T)
Friday, Aug. 7: Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets: Leafs 4 - Jackets 3 (O/T)

Sunday, Aug. 9: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs, 8pm | NBCSN, NHL.TV, SN, TVAS, FS-O


Projected Rosters:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev
Robertson-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza
Gauthier

Rielly-Ceci
Dermott-Holl
Marincin-Barrie
Sandin

Andersen
Campbell


Columbus Blue Jackets:

Foligno-Dubois-Bjorkstrand
Nyquist-Jenner-Atkinson
Texier-Wennberg-Bemstrom
Robinson-Nash-Foudy

Werenski-Jones
Gavrikov-Savard
Murray-Kukan
Harrington-Nutivaara

Korpisalo
Merzlikins


Season Series (1-1):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8wMUF4AQvU


Predicting skill, jump and special teams win the day, with team D still being very rusty for most.
Leafs in three.
 
Columbus has a very good first line and outstanding top line. But they don't have a single forward of the caliber of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander.

Jones is amazing, but he can't be out there every shift.
 
If said this before, but I just feel like it'll be a lot easier for a team to reach their maximum offensive potential in such a bizarre environment like this than it will be for a team to reach their maximum defensive potential. If Columbus' goalies can somehow maintain their Jennings-type numbers from the regular season then of course they'll still have a shot. But if those numbers falter in any way the Leafs should have a pretty big advantage.
 
Bullfrog said:
Columbus has a very good first line and outstanding top line. But they don't have a single forward of the caliber of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander.

Jones is amazing, but he can't be out there every shift.
Click to expand...

Agreed. They're not a particularly intimidating team offensively. Defensively, however, they can be absolutely smothering when they want to - they'll still allow shots, but they're pretty good at limiting high danger chances.

However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
If said this before, but I just feel like it'll be a lot easier for a team to reach their maximum offensive potential in such a bizarre environment like this than it will be for a team to reach their maximum defensive potential. If Columbus' goalies can somehow maintain their Jennings-type numbers from the regular season then of course they'll still have a shot. But if those numbers falter in any way the Leafs should have a pretty big advantage.
Click to expand...

I feel like Merzlikins had a really abnormal run in the middle of this year. He posted 5 shutouts in less than a month. I totally believe he's a good goalie but I also think regression there. I also don't think Columbus is such a stingy defensive team that both Korpisalo & Merzlikins' SV% Above expected being negative is really true.
 
bustaheims said:
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.
Click to expand...

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!
 
CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims said:
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.
Click to expand...

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!
Click to expand...

You must be bored to have looked up something so specific...
 
Frank E said:
CarltonTheBear said:
bustaheims said:
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.
Click to expand...

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!
Click to expand...

You must be bored to have looked up something so specific...
Click to expand...

Man just wait to see what I'm about to post in a few minutes.
 
The top 10 teams this season in GA/GP vs. how many goals per game the Leafs scored on them:

BOS  2.39  2.67
DAL  2.52  3.50
ARI  2.61  3.00
CBJ  2.61  3.50
STL  2.68  3.50
COL  2.71  3.00
PHI  2.77  2.33
TB  2.77  3.00
NYI  2.79  3.50
WPG  2.83  4.50

I'm not trying to pass this off as some kind of groundbreaking statistical analysis (obviously there's a big sample size warning for each team) but I think it somewhat shows that Toronto generally didn't have a problem producing offence even against the best defensive teams in the league this season.
 
tenor.gif

 
Zee said:
Looks like Sandin might be on the outs.
Click to expand...

This always felt pretty unlikely. I mean I said the same about Robertson playing game 1 but his path to a roster spot (through Engvall/Goat + taking advantage of Johnsson's injury) was much, much clearer.
 
Zee said:
https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1288863533418127363
Click to expand...

Speak of the devil... Kinda feels like he might be ahead of Dubas' recent time line of him returning for round 2 (assuming that meant the traditional round 2 of the playoffs and not the round after the qualifying round).
 
Do we think it's a good idea to insert Johnsson right in the middle of a playoff round after being off for six months?
 
Frank E said:
Do we think it's a good idea to insert Johnsson right in the middle of a playoff round after being off for six months?
Click to expand...

Normally, maybe not. But I mean everyone else has been off for 4.5 months so the playing field seems level.
 
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