2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
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Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
League average is around .903 save% which is around Samsonov's career average.
It does not appear to be anything physical.
Some of the trouble with his numbers have been the skaters in front of him.
I don't know if the chances "are way higher than Hildeby/Jones being a long-term success filling that spot this season". I'm not clear on how to really assess that.
I do not think that the chances of him recovering enough of his game to help are anything close to insurmountable. I'm convinced he liked Toronto and this team and he is crushed by the results this season. People can pivot from those emotions to perform better.
I think he has a fair shot to come back to his career average and help out if called upon. There are no guarantees but it is not an unrealistic potential outcome.
Here's a few ifs:
If Woll continues to be out for a while ... which seems to be what folks are saying
34 year old Jones gets hurt
If Samsonov was picked off waivers, that is a heck of a situation to throw Hildeby into and which U of T goalie is backing him up? That's over the top but the situation is flirting with being not that far away from being crazy. So I'm not unhappy he cleared.
It's great to talk about cap space but what assets of value are left to throw into the trade market on a team on the fringes of fighting for a wild card spot, with Nylander unsigned, that is legitimately questionable whether they should be having a fire sale? They sure as heck don't resemble anything close to a Cup contender right now. They can reliably muster a good top 6 and one pretty good dman. After that, it gets murky.
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Roughly 2 months until the trade deadline. That's a big enough time period to determine if a stint on the Marlies can have "fixed" Samsonov, or if some combination of Woll/Jones/Hildeby can comfortably hold down the fort at the NHL level. If a new goalie needs to be brought in Samsonov's contract can probably be unloaded without too much trouble if additional cap space is required for that.
Highlander
Active member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Yep
Highlander
Active member
cw said:
They will gel and make the playoffs
bustaheims
Active member
cw said:
This team is a ways away from it being ?legitimately questionable? whether they should be having a fire sale. Even after this downturn, they?re still 10th in the league in terms of P%.
Frank E
Active member
bustaheims said:
Sure, but I think it's worth a conversation about what's best for the team in the coming few years.
If they let Nylander walk, Bert, Domi, and Brodie are also pending UFA, that won't serve them well...if they're still hanging around 10th in P% around the deadline, do you consider selling off and retooling this summer with assets gained from those sales to take a better shot with Tavares and Marner in their last year?
bustaheims said:
For starters, I'd refer you to this post by Nik:
https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php/topic,6914.msg490668.html#msg490668
Let's look at the potential of Cup winning goaltending:
Our starter for this season and last just cleared waivers and is off to the AHL
Our backup and great hope is injured - he has a history of getting hurt. He's only played 30 NHL games in his lifetime spread over 3 seasons. He's only played 32 pro games once in a season since college (the other seasons less) and he is facing up to 28 NHL playoff games to win a Cup.
His backup cleared waivers to start the season and is almost 34 - more prone to injury.
And now we have Hildebeast about to play his first NHL game.
Which one of those guys is going to skate around the rink with a Cup over his head this spring?
I do not think it is unfair to suggest that on goaltending alone, it is a pretty big stretch to expect a parade. When Ken Dryden did it as a rookie, he was surrounded by about 10 Hall of Famers with about 3 of them on defense. I don't count anything close to 10 Hall of Famers on this roster (Matthews is likely and then a few maybes).
This team is currently roughly on pace for the 2nd worst GAA for a Leafs team since 1992 (near the end of the offensive era). It is not all on Samsonov. There is something else wrong. Who are the top 4 in this group who will get their names engraved on the Cup? Rielly. After that it gets iffy. McCabe-Brodie looked great during the last part of last season but got run over in the playoffs. Liljegren? Top 4 on a Cup winner? I'm not sure. I wish they were. They lack offense from the back end. They lack physicality. Some weakness on the PK. I don't think that is a D that can win a Cup. And I'm not sure they're one dman away as that dman would probably have to be the second coming of Chris Pronger or someone like that to flirt with it.
There is little question that they have a great two forward lines. That is what has been carrying them. But after that, it gets iffy. There are holes or issues. One could argue every team has 'holes' but this team has more than last year or more than the real contenders.
To improve the team, they have to give something to get something. With the prospect cupboard and draft picks stripped down from past, arguably premature deadline deals, they're facing some very tough decisions. Everyone will want their top prospects or 1st rounders to try to fill the D and the other holes.
And they're trying to do this when they don't know where Nylander is playing next season.
I think there could be a quality debate on which way to go. It is a good question. If they shoot their wad this year, what are they going to do next year? If you trade young assets, you are mortgaging the future to help you in the present. They are getting ever closer to where they are really stuck. They won't be able to attract UFAs because there are no prospects coming to help them with their cap to remain competitive.
If they're not going to re-sign Nylander, it might be a good time to cut their losses and get what they can for him.
If they do re-sign Nylander, maybe taking their lumps this season helps them get assets to help them next season and beyond for a couple of more serious shots rather than blowing them to get out of the deeper talent hole they're in now.
We can cling to their pts win% but that team just got beat by the three worst pts win% teams in the conference. When you see that, I don't think it is outrageous to question that there is something more deeply wrong with this group. It is not the sort of thing you expect to see from a true Cup contender.
Here's another disturbing stat: Leafs team GAA 3.44. Average regular season GAA for a Cup winner is 2.49 since 2007 and the worst is 2.90 (Wash Caps).
For the "let's blame it all on Samsonov" camp, Woll's GAA is 2.80. In the last 17 years, average Cup winning goalie's regular season GAA is 2.27. 2.45 over the last 7 years when scoring seemed to rise. Only one goalie had a worse GAA than Woll's 2.80 and won a Cup: Holtby in 2018. His team had a similar defensive problem to the Leafs. So, there's a sliver of a chance but Woll doesn't have Holtby's experience or as good of a prior record. I'd call Woll at this juncture a real long shot at best. Upgrade the team D and Woll returns with no negative effects from the IR and his chances could improve. But he's still probably on the outside looking in. (edit: poorly phrased GAA is a measure of the team D plus Woll - not Woll himself - this distinguishes the team from Samsonov)
I think it is a very fair question as to whether one mortgages a bunch of the future on this group. Before committing to anything like that, I'd want to know Nylander's future, have a better sense of what the young goalies and prospects offer and have some insight on what help the team might be able to get on the UFA market this summer. Until you know those things or things like them, you can't make a definitive call. But if someone had a gun to my head to make a decision now, I'd have a fire sale and look at taking a better shot next season.
Hilariously Antti Raanta is the only Goalie in the same ballpark as Samsonov, but nobody would say "It isn't all on Raanta" even though I think Sammy would likely have the same stats in Carolina.
Also, I think the goalie stats you listed are a bit disingenuous. Goalies have always tightened up in the playoffs with some going on miraculous runs a la Bob last year. Even just looking at Adin Hill splits between RS and PS you get .915SV% and 2.45GAA. In the playoffs he was .932SV% 2.17GAA. Goaltending is basically voodoo, and there's always a chicken and egg issue. Both goalie and team are responsible for these outcomes, but what a sliding scale as to who is impacting what/what degree this is. Good defensive teams can mask bad goaltending. Bad defensive teams are masked by good goaltending and various other combinations.
I understand why you're reaching to the Ken Dryden analogy, but the game has changed so much since then. Just off the top of my head goalies that were basically rookies that won the cup more recently were Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington, and in the case of Binnington the team was in last place at the end of the calendar year if I recall correctly. Florida came in as the 2nd WC team and made it to the finals.
The Leafs no question have a lot to improve, and I don't think anybody thinks the roster as currently constructed can win a Cup, but we're also in the middle of a slump which magnifies problems. I'm willing to see how the rest of the season plays out and reserve judgment because I do think the roster can be turned over a bit in trades and we can see where it goes.
Next year though will definitely be a painful one.
Also, I think the goalie stats you listed are a bit disingenuous. Goalies have always tightened up in the playoffs with some going on miraculous runs a la Bob last year. Even just looking at Adin Hill splits between RS and PS you get .915SV% and 2.45GAA. In the playoffs he was .932SV% 2.17GAA. Goaltending is basically voodoo, and there's always a chicken and egg issue. Both goalie and team are responsible for these outcomes, but what a sliding scale as to who is impacting what/what degree this is. Good defensive teams can mask bad goaltending. Bad defensive teams are masked by good goaltending and various other combinations.
I understand why you're reaching to the Ken Dryden analogy, but the game has changed so much since then. Just off the top of my head goalies that were basically rookies that won the cup more recently were Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington, and in the case of Binnington the team was in last place at the end of the calendar year if I recall correctly. Florida came in as the 2nd WC team and made it to the finals.
The Leafs no question have a lot to improve, and I don't think anybody thinks the roster as currently constructed can win a Cup, but we're also in the middle of a slump which magnifies problems. I'm willing to see how the rest of the season plays out and reserve judgment because I do think the roster can be turned over a bit in trades and we can see where it goes.
Next year though will definitely be a painful one.
Bender said:
Agree about waiting but also think that depending on how things go, every option should be on the table. The biggest issue will be the Nylander/Marner one. Keep both? Keep one (and which one)? I go back and forth on whether I'd rather keep Marner or Nylander if one has to go.
Next year will be potentially painful if they sign Nylander to a crazy expensive contract and still have Marner. But if they decide to trade him or Marner that opens up a lot of cap space. Regardless though, I still think that this team really has to focus on the year(s) after the Tavares contract expires. Tavares leaves or signs a real team friendly deal, that opens up $11 million (plus whatever cap increase) to fix the roster. By then Knies should be a real force and maybe someone like Cowan or Minten are contributors. Ideally Woll and Hildeby can handle goal effectively. That still leaves the defense which must finally be rebuilt into something that can win in the playoffs.
Oh, and hopefully a new coach is running things too!
Arn
Active member
cw said:
This is a very eloquent post that better says what I was trying to say a few pages back.
I genuinely think getting whatever assets they can for Bertuzzi and Domi in particular, maybe Reaves and Timmins too, is a viable way to go. I?d even see if there?s a market for Kampf either now or during the off season. Not sure how much they?d get for those guys, though.
If you look at the roster for next year there?s only 8 forwards (including Reaves and Kampf), 3 D and 1 goalie signed for a cap hit of ~$50m without Nylander.
If they fail this season I do see one of Nylander (sign and trade maybe?) or Marner going. There?ll be a big move.
I think even if you shift on Bertuzzi/Domi/Timmins etc, there?s still a chance of creeping into the playoffs but with more assets to restock the future pipeline and loads of space to revamp the lineup next season.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
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FIRE EVERYONE INTO THE SUN
Except for AM34
Except for AM34
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/fan590/status/1742303395245949426
Kypreos and Bourne have both heard the Leafs are trending towards getting a deal done with Willy, both sides aiming for before the All Star break, around the 11.25M x 8 yrs.
I.e. looks like Pastrnak?s AAV but the cap environment means it?s a lower cap%
Kypreos and Bourne have both heard the Leafs are trending towards getting a deal done with Willy, both sides aiming for before the All Star break, around the 11.25M x 8 yrs.
I.e. looks like Pastrnak?s AAV but the cap environment means it?s a lower cap%
Not gonna start putting much stock in Kypreos reports now, but I guess we'll see.