2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[CarltonTheBear]

Him being on the ice in a late one goal scenario is absurd.  He doesn't generate offence.  He's not a cycle player.  I'm done with Keefe.

To Keefe's credit, it's not like there's a variety of defensive/utility forwards on the team as there has been in past seasons. Treliving made the clear decision to stock up on offensive forwards in the top-9 instead, and obviously there was a good reasoning for that. With that said it makes the decision to not have a more well rounded defensive player at the 4LW and/or 4RW spots of the line-up probably a little more questionable. I think eventually that needs to get addressed by the GM. Keefe at the moment is trying to force Gregor into being a defensive player even though he definitely isn't because he doesn't really have another option.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Him being on the ice in a late one goal scenario is absurd.  He doesn't generate offence.  He's not a cycle player.  I'm done with Keefe.

To Keefe's credit, it's not like there's a variety of defensive/utility forwards on the team as there has been in past seasons. Treliving made the clear decision to stock up on offensive forwards in the top-9 instead, and obviously there was a good reasoning for that. With that said it makes the decision to not have a more well rounded defensive player at the 4LW and/or 4RW spots of the line-up probably a little more questionable. I think eventually that needs to get addressed by the GM.

He has to be talking about the Col game. As for the Det game, I have no issue with using the 4th line there. They had no bearing on the winning goal. Lily threw the puck away.

 

[Palmateer29]

Anyone hearing about the Maple Leafs executives all meeting up today without Keefe? Wondering if that means they are just about done with him?

An "anonymous insider" twitter account with about a 0.00% success rate when it comes to rumours floated this one out there yesterday, so I wouldn't really think much about it.

Damn I was hopeful there for a minute....

 

[bustaheims]

Anyone hearing about the Maple Leafs executives all meeting up today without Keefe? Wondering if that means they are just about done with him?

An "anonymous insider" twitter account with about a 0.00% success rate when it comes to rumours floated this one out there yesterday, so I wouldn't really think much about it.

Damn I was hopeful there for a minute....

Anything that doesn?t come from a known hockey personality should be taken with a large helping of salt.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1747333594656203055

Not gonna lie, I've always been pretty intrigued by Zohorna ever since the Leafs picked him up for a short stint last season. 6'6", 220 lbs, skates well for his size. Not exactly as physical as people would probably like for a guy of his size. Has generally put up pretty decent on-ice results.

Treliving's plucked him off waivers from the Penguins once before last season, but also traded him too. Wouldn't mind giving him another go.

 

[L K]

Him being on the ice in a late one goal scenario is absurd.  He doesn't generate offence.  He's not a cycle player.  I'm done with Keefe.

To Keefe's credit, it's not like there's a variety of defensive/utility forwards on the team as there has been in past seasons. Treliving made the clear decision to stock up on offensive forwards in the top-9 instead, and obviously there was a good reasoning for that. With that said it makes the decision to not have a more well rounded defensive player at the 4LW and/or 4RW spots of the line-up probably a little more questionable. I think eventually that needs to get addressed by the GM.

He has to be talking about the Col game. As for the Det game, I have no issue with using the 4th line there. They had no bearing on the winning goal. Lily threw the puck away.

Yeah I was thinking the Colorado game when he was out in the final minute.  His one hockey value is his speed.  That's pointless in a 6 on 5 scenario as he's not a great puck retriever and he isn't a guy who can pass the puck to the guys you want shooting in that scenario.

The team isn't good enough to win.  There is still a lot of things to like about the team but we are stuck with the core at this point.  Marner has a NMC.  Tavares/Matthews/Nylander are signed.  So we can either limp around with a team that I think is underperforming.  Or we make a change.  The Leafs don't have the assets to make big acquisitions and I really don't want to see them throw away another 1st round pick, particularly for this current team.

Is it entirely fair to Keefe, no, but he's been here since 2019 so this isn't his first season with the team.  Maybe it's time for the team to have an asshole in the dressing room....just not a sociopath like Babcock.

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1747333594656203055

Not gonna lie, I've always been pretty intrigued by Zohorna ever since the Leafs picked him up for a short stint last season. 6'6", 220 lbs, skates well for his size. Not exactly as physical as people would probably like for a guy of his size. Has generally put up pretty decent on-ice results.

Treliving's plucked him off waivers from the Penguins once before last season, but also traded him too. Wouldn't mind giving him another go.

His skating speed surprised me - above average yet a big guy.
He didn't get much of a shot in terms of ice time this year. 40+% of the time, less than 10 mins in a game.
Where would he fit in the Leafs lineup?

 

[bustaheims]

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1747333594656203055

Not gonna lie, I've always been pretty intrigued by Zohorna ever since the Leafs picked him up for a short stint last season. 6'6", 220 lbs, skates well for his size. Not exactly as physical as people would probably like for a guy of his size. Has generally put up pretty decent on-ice results.

Treliving's plucked him off waivers from the Penguins once before last season, but also traded him too. Wouldn't mind giving him another go.

His skating speed surprised me - above average yet a big guy.
He didn't get much of a shot in terms of ice time this year. 40+% of the time, less than 10 mins in a game.
Where would he fit in the Leafs lineup?

That?s the problem - he doesn?t really have a fit. He?s not strong enough offensively to play in the top 6. Not physical enough to be on a serious checking line. He?s decent defensively, so he could be a 4th line option, but, that?s about.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That?s the problem - he doesn?t really have a fit. He?s not strong enough offensively to play in the top 6. Not physical enough to be on a serious checking line. He?s decent defensively, so he could be a 4th line option, but, that?s about.

Well yeah 4th line's exactly where I would put him, with either McMann or Gregor rotating on the other side. Zohorna has the exact same offensive zone start percentage as Gregor but significantly better on-ice numbers (53.42 CF, 52.38 GF, 55.10 xGF compared to 44.99 CF, 29.63 GF, 37.73 xGF). He also had the 2nd lowest CA/60 among Pens forwards so far this season while Gregor has the highest on the Leafs.

Not saying he'd be a sure-fire thing there (obviously there's some reason the Pens are waiving him) but as a free asset and considering the GM, coach, and organization as a whole has at least some familiarity with him feels worth a shot considering the alternatives don't really seem to be working there and kinda haven't been for almost all season.

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/KPapetti/status/1747122927705722937

You know I'm starting to worry more and more that Gregor's impressive pre-season (where his career was on the line) and a few bursts of speed here and there may have hoodwinked us into thinking he's a better player than he actually is. Like maybe there's a reason the worst team in the league said "thanks but no thanks" to him.

Wouldn't be the first time someone impressed in preseason and regressed.
I'm not sure about that in his case.
He was playing with Reaves during his awful start to the season. That would bring Kampf & Gregor down, wouldn't it? Doesn't explain it all ..

Kampf had similarly poor numbers in the playoffs last May, did he not?
And Keefe sat Kampf out recently.

My eye ball 'stats' sensed:
Reaves was maybe unlucky at times but bad
Kampf wasn't very good consistently

So those guys would bring down Gregor and that muddies it up trying to judge him exclusively.

Coincidently, I was looking at what I might do to fix this team. I was trying to get a better handle on their PK problems. We sort of have a similar problem in that the goaltending has been below par - which can also detrimentally affect Kampf and Gregor (& Reaves) numbers.

If one can focus on the thing a team is worst at - particularly defensive stuff that might be improved by learning/approach and is not as reliant on talent, this might be a way to look at it. The Leafs PK is 24th or so in the league. Those pieces of talent that might help you are not as likely to cost you Minten, Cowan or a 1st.

When I started to look into it, PPGA/60 (PK stat) for Kampf was twice as bad as it was for Gregor. Kampf's numbers were better last year so some of that is the goaltending.

I was looking at Ryan Carpenter of SJ & Jason Dickinson of Chi trying to find out if they would be an upgrade for the PK. If they were any good, they wouldn't cost a 1st rounder to get. Maybe that is the most important attribute for a dman - a guy who can PK that doesn't require a top asset (ie Schenn cost a 3rd round pick). Those might be 'affordable' upgrades that could help the team.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

When I started to look into it, PPGA/60 (PK stat) for Kampf was twice as bad as it was for Gregor. Kampf's numbers were better last year so some of that is the goaltending.

I was looking at Ryan Carpenter of SJ & Jason Dickinson of Chi trying to find out if they would be an upgrade for the PK. If they were any good, they wouldn't cost a 1st rounder to get. Maybe that is the most important attribute for a dman - a guy who can PK that doesn't require a top asset (ie Schenn cost a 3rd round pick). Those might be 'affordable' upgrades that could help the team.

They could definitely use another penalty killing forward to take secondary/tertiary minutes there but what I think has really caused their PK to crater this season (aside from goaltending) is the Holl-sized hole that's been left on the top penalty killing D pairing. A 40-year old and probably in his final season Mark Giordano has been forced to take on that very difficult responsibility and struggled. McCabe and Liljegren both haven't shown the ability to take over Holl's minutes either. Teams basically dying for a guy like Tanev to come in and do that job.

 

[cw]

When I started to look into it, PPGA/60 (PK stat) for Kampf was twice as bad as it was for Gregor. Kampf's numbers were better last year so some of that is the goaltending.

I was looking at Ryan Carpenter of SJ & Jason Dickinson of Chi trying to find out if they would be an upgrade for the PK. If they were any good, they wouldn't cost a 1st rounder to get. Maybe that is the most important attribute for a dman - a guy who can PK that doesn't require a top asset (ie Schenn cost a 3rd round pick). Those might be 'affordable' upgrades that could help the team.

They could definitely use another penalty killing forward to take secondary/tertiary minutes there but what I think has really caused their PK to crater this season (aside from goaltending) is the Holl-sized hole that's been left on the top penalty killing D pairing. A 40-year old and probably in his final season Mark Giordano has been forced to take on that very difficult responsibility and struggled. McCabe and Liljegren both haven't shown the ability to take over Holl's minutes either. Teams basically dying for a guy like Tanev to come in and do that job.

They recently paired McCabe (who helps some physically) and Benoit (who can help some physically) with Giordano & Brodie. So they seem to recognize the issue.

To Giordano's credit, he will tangle with guys in front of the net and try to do the role. It is not something a 40 year old should be expected to do.

I think they recognized it last summer but they couldn't land a dman for that role.
I know Holl wasn't everybody's favorite but I appreciated what he did on the PK and knew they would miss it.

To that end, I looked through the bottom 8 teams last night. Could have easily missed some. Below are four right handed dmen. The first three currently do a bunch of PK and seemed to have respectable PPGA/60
David Savard, Mtl
Radco Gudas, Ana
Ilya Lyubushkin, Ana

Zach Bogosian, Min, has good numbers for years on the PK for the Sabres. Hasn't done it much since. He'd probably be an economical pickup if he could revive that role.

The other three, particularly Savard & Gudas, would probably cost an asset we'd be reluctant to part with. And their contracts would be tougher to fit under the cap.

With Lyubushkin & Bogosian, I'm not sure how the team or the player would feel about a second stop in Toronto.

Problem with a few of them is they're not likely to truly fix the top 4 D.

Tanev & Hanifin have good PK numbers over the last couple of years. They'd be ideal but costly to acquire. However, Calgary isn't out of the playoff race yet. They could be within 2 pts of the first wildcard spot if they win tonight. 6-4 in their last ten games.

 

[Joe S.]

So who?s excited for the upcoming Bruce Boudreau era?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/jtbourne/status/1747720465018171640

But then there?s O-zone passing success rate, a stat in which the top teams are Colorado, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers. The Toronto Maple Leafs sit 32nd there, just behind Philadelphia, with a success rate about 8 per cent worse than the Avalanche.

To really hammer this home with numbers: The Leafs are also 32nd in the NHL in ?offensive touches success rate? in the O-zone as well (the previous three years they were 8th, 13th, and 7th).

To summarize, the Leafs have the worst O-zone passing success rate and the worst O-zone touches, which ends up as the 24th ranked team in O-zone possession time. You do not have to be a hound dog to sniff out that connection. If you?re looking for ways to protect leads in the third period as the Leafs are, you can start by making less hope passes that become turnovers, and prioritize playing in the offensive zone more.

Terrific piece here from Justin Bourne, who always tends to nail these "System Analyst" posts.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/jtbourne/status/1747720465018171640

But then there?s O-zone passing success rate, a stat in which the top teams are Colorado, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers. The Toronto Maple Leafs sit 32nd there, just behind Philadelphia, with a success rate about 8 per cent worse than the Avalanche.

To really hammer this home with numbers: The Leafs are also 32nd in the NHL in ?offensive touches success rate? in the O-zone as well (the previous three years they were 8th, 13th, and 7th).

To summarize, the Leafs have the worst O-zone passing success rate and the worst O-zone touches, which ends up as the 24th ranked team in O-zone possession time. You do not have to be a hound dog to sniff out that connection. If you?re looking for ways to protect leads in the third period as the Leafs are, you can start by making less hope passes that become turnovers, and prioritize playing in the offensive zone more.

Terrific piece here from Justin Bourne, who always tends to nail these "System Analyst" posts.

Just read it. Very good analysis by Bourne.
I also listened to Overdrive and they had Jason Strudwick talking about the game. His thinks the biggest issue is the D core. Something we've thought all along. Didn't come out and blame Brodie but said the issue is they're asking him to do something he's not capable of anymore. No argument from me but in the meantime, they can take Bourne's advice and get by, but Tre needs to improve the D at some point.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/ineffectivemath/status/1747742670695370819

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/jtbourne/status/1747720465018171640

But then there?s O-zone passing success rate, a stat in which the top teams are Colorado, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers. The Toronto Maple Leafs sit 32nd there, just behind Philadelphia, with a success rate about 8 per cent worse than the Avalanche.

To really hammer this home with numbers: The Leafs are also 32nd in the NHL in ?offensive touches success rate? in the O-zone as well (the previous three years they were 8th, 13th, and 7th).

To summarize, the Leafs have the worst O-zone passing success rate and the worst O-zone touches, which ends up as the 24th ranked team in O-zone possession time. You do not have to be a hound dog to sniff out that connection. If you?re looking for ways to protect leads in the third period as the Leafs are, you can start by making less hope passes that become turnovers, and prioritize playing in the offensive zone more.

Terrific piece here from Justin Bourne, who always tends to nail these "System Analyst" posts.

It was good work.

We've talked about it some here. Specifically about Domi's errant passes that come back the other way. For example, the Norris goal
https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/ott-vs-tor/2023/12/07/2023020395

On that goal Bourne got into, the skaters standing around got to me as well. It made me ask myself "have they switched back to zone defence after they had worked on man to man during preseason?" It was like deer in the headlights hesitation and then it was in the back of the net.

I had wondered if they should go back to what they were doing last season since they seemed to play it better than what they're doing this year.

Wasn't aware of the stats on O-zone passing success rate. That is something you can't pin as much on missing a crease clearer. They don't need to make a dman trade to clean some of that up. Good old fashioned "take care of the puck". I'm sure the Leafs coaching staff realizes it ...

If they can embrace improving on this, it gives me a little hope. If they want to make the playoffs, they pretty much have to.

 

[cw]

I was looking at the Kampf contract buyout option.
I was trying to look down the road to see what might make sense for them if he didn't contribute better.
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/david-kampf

Unless I'm interpreting it wrong, because of so much signing bonus, it is really discouraging to try to buy him out. Of the $7.2 mil owing after this year, they would only save $1.075 mil total with a buyout.

They would save $717,000 against the cap during each of the final three seasons - which doesn't cover signing someone at NHL minimum to replace him. So the net of the buyout is the cap cost would have to go up for his position. And then, to add insult to injury, they'd have to pay $358,000 against the cap for the 3 years after the contract expires.

With no signing bonus, the cap hit would by $800,000 (instead of $1.6 mil/yr) and they would save $2.4 mil (instead of $1.075 mil)

I didn't like the deal when Treliving signed it.

That contract is worse than I thought at the time.

My impression of Treliving is not improving.

 

[cw]

Detroit won tonight. Look who is in a wildcard spot ...
https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-01-17/wildcard

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Detroit won tonight. Look who is in a wildcard spot ...
https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-01-17/wildcard

Really wasn't expecting that. Detroit followed up a 1-6-0 stretch by going 6-1-1. Leafs meanwhile went from going 4-0-0 to 0-3-1.

Leafs do still have 2 games in hand though. Just gotta, you know, win them.