Armchair GM 2016-2017

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyway, the armchair GM in me wonders if that can be expanded to a point where JVR for Fabbro is worked in too. St. Louis could use some help on the left side it seems as well. Maybe we take Gunnarsson's contract back too in addition to Lehtera's.

edit: Sorry, not Fabbro. He's of course in Nashville. I could have sworn there was a defensive prospect that St. Louis picked that I liked recently, but it appears I was mistaken.

 

[Frank E]

Anyway, the armchair GM in me wonders if that can be expanded to a point where JVR for Fabbro is worked in too. St. Louis could use some help on the left side it seems as well. Maybe we take Gunnarsson's contract back too in addition to Lehtera's.

edit: Sorry, not Fabbro. He's of course in Nashville. I could have sworn there was a defensive prospect that St. Louis picked that I liked recently, but it appears I was mistaken.

Fabbri?

 

[herman]

It really pays to have an unsustainably high shooting percentage in your contract season. His actual salary actually ramps up, which probably puts Cap Space poachers like Arizona out of the running.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

What about a 3 way trade that is something like :

St Louis gets JVR
Leafs get Tanev, Lehtera and one of STL's 1sts
Vancouver gets the other St Louis 1st, Gunnarsson and a prospect from St Louis and a prospect from the Leafs.

Feasible or cloud cuckoo land?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What about a 3 way trade that is something like :

St Louis gets JVR
Leafs get Tanev, Lehtera and one of STL's 1sts
Vancouver gets the other St Louis 1st, Gunnarsson and a prospect from St Louis and maybe a later pick from the Leafs.

Feasible or cloud cuckoo land?

Honestly, I don't think it's crazy. I could see the Blues wanting JVR, but only offering up picks while the Leafs would prefer a defenceman. I could see the Leafs wanting Tanev, but only offering JVR while the Canucks would prefer picks.

I mean, 3-way deals are unrealistic in nature but that's at least one that has a lot of logic behind it.

 

[bustaheims]

Anyway, the armchair GM in me wonders if that can be expanded to a point where JVR for Fabbro is worked in too. St. Louis could use some help on the left side it seems as well. Maybe we take Gunnarsson's contract back too in addition to Lehtera's.

edit: Sorry, not Fabbro. He's of course in Nashville. I could have sworn there was a defensive prospect that St. Louis picked that I liked recently, but it appears I was mistaken.

Jake Walman, maybe? Or, maybe I'm overrating him because of how much his cousin was pumping his tires on facebook.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyway, the armchair GM in me wonders if that can be expanded to a point where JVR for Fabbro is worked in too. St. Louis could use some help on the left side it seems as well. Maybe we take Gunnarsson's contract back too in addition to Lehtera's.

edit: Sorry, not Fabbro. He's of course in Nashville. I could have sworn there was a defensive prospect that St. Louis picked that I liked recently, but it appears I was mistaken.

Jake Walman, maybe? Or, maybe I'm overrating him because of how much his cousin was pumping his tires on facebook.

Nah, I'm pretty sure Fabbro WAS the defenceman I was thinking of and just mixed up who drafted him. Probably from all that time I spent trying to forget the Preds nabbed 3 awesome defenceman I wanted all in one draft while we picked some middle-aged Russians.

 

[Kin]

What about a 3 way trade that is something like :

St Louis gets JVR
Leafs get Tanev, Lehtera and one of STL's 1sts
Vancouver gets the other St Louis 1st, Gunnarsson and a prospect from St Louis and a prospect from the Leafs.

JVR is a big bullet in the Leafs gun to try and land an upgrade on the blueline. If they're dealing him and a prospect I'd sure hope they could do better than Tanev, a low first and a bad contract.

 

[L K]

What about a 3 way trade that is something like :

St Louis gets JVR
Leafs get Tanev, Lehtera and one of STL's 1sts
Vancouver gets the other St Louis 1st, Gunnarsson and a prospect from St Louis and a prospect from the Leafs.

JVR is a big bullet in the Leafs gun to try and land an upgrade on the blueline. If they're dealing him and a prospect I'd sure hope they could do better than Tanev, a low first and a bad contract.

I don't know.  Could that be an overvaluation on JVR?  He's bad defensively and doesn't seem to be a guy who has that extra gear to take over a game.  He's a really good player but are we really going to get something better than tanev for him?  Unless the prospect is of the Kapanen level I think  3/4 defender is the best we get

 

[Kin]

I don't know.  Could that be an overvaluation on JVR?  He's bad defensively and doesn't seem to be a guy who has that extra gear to take over a game.  He's a really good player but are we really going to get something better than tanev for him?  Unless the prospect is of the Kapanen level I think  3/4 defender is the best we get

I think our disagreement may be more centered around what Tanev is than what JVR's value is. I agree they shouldn't be expecting much more than an NHL-ready #3 or #4 but Tanev, at a glance, looks like a guy with 0 offensive game, ok but not special possession numbers and some inability to stay healthy(he's averaged 64 games over the last 4 years). Is he someone who bumps any of our top 3? Does he necessarily bump Carrick? Is he markedly better than someone the Leafs could sign as a mid-range UFA like Smith?

It's the last one that really prompts the question. I'd rather keep JVR than deal him for not much more than they could get via smart UFA moving. I may be woefully unfamiliar with Tanev and maybe he's an all-world penalty killer or some new stat has him as being really, really valuable but from an in the dark place it sure doesn't look like you're getting a #3 or even #4 that stacks up with where we want to be at those spots.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This was a good article on Tanev from yesterday for those who don't know much about him: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/6/15743666/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-target-chris-tanev-morgan-rielly-right-hand-defence-vancouver-canucks

He does sound to me like somebody who would be a good #3 or #4 defenceman. His shot suppression numbers are pretty elite, for those who value that sort of thing. His point totals are certainly unimpressive, especially this past season. But I think he could get back into the 20-30 point range over 82 games while playing for a team with a little (actually, a lot) more offensive talent. The biggest problem to me is, will he ever play 82 games? Like Nik said, he's consistently missed a lot of games the past 4 seasons.

 

[herman]

Benning is certainly using the media to try to drive up the price.
Sportsnet?s Elliotte Friedman with The Instigators (WGR 550)

On the interest in Tanev, including potential inquiries from Toronto:

I know a lot of teams have asked about him? Tanev is from Toronto, so I don?t think he?d have a big problem coming East. I think Dallas would love to have him. I could even see a team like Toronto wanting to have him. Chris Tanev is not the biggest name in the world, but he?s a solid guy and he plays a very smart game.

But I think Vancouver has told teams he?s not coming out of here easily. They really need a lot, Vancouver. They need scorers. I think if you can get them a scorer, it would pique their interest. But I think it?s going to cost a lot, and there is a lot of competition. The thing that [Vancouver] told one team was that the moment we trade this guy, we?re going to need someone like him. I would think he?s only getting dealt if he we hear the trade and we go, ?oh, okay. That?s why he?s getting traded, because he?s worth that much.?

That?s a big deal. That costs you a lot.

 

[L K]

I don't know.  Could that be an overvaluation on JVR?  He's bad defensively and doesn't seem to be a guy who has that extra gear to take over a game.  He's a really good player but are we really going to get something better than tanev for him?  Unless the prospect is of the Kapanen level I think  3/4 defender is the best we get

I think our disagreement may be more centered around what Tanev is than what JVR's value is. I agree they shouldn't be expecting much more than an NHL-ready #3 or #4 but Tanev, at a glance, looks like a guy with 0 offensive game, ok but not special possession numbers and some inability to stay healthy(he's averaged 64 games over the last 4 years). Is he someone who bumps any of our top 3? Does he necessarily bump Carrick? Is he markedly better than someone the Leafs could sign as a mid-range UFA like Smith?

It's the last one that really prompts the question. I'd rather keep JVR than deal him for not much more than they could get via smart UFA moving. I may be woefully unfamiliar with Tanev and maybe he's an all-world penalty killer or some new stat has him as being really, really valuable but from an in the dark place it sure doesn't look like you're getting a #3 or even #4 that stacks up with where we want to be at those spots.

I think that's fair.  I agree on the health issues with Tanev.  That being said, I do think that his defensive play is probably of the level that puts him in the 3-4 range. If he could play a full season a #3 and with his health issues a #4.  I certainly wouldn't want to pay a premium for him JVR+ but I'm not sure that we get a better option than a Tanev in a trade for JVR.  I do think the Leafs need to start making moves to find defensemen however.  Any defensemen drafted in the next year or two are likely 4-5 years away from being meaningful contributors.  4-5 years from now is when the Leafs will start to feel the cap crunch of Marner/Matthews/Nylander's second contracts.

 

[princedpw]

the injury risk combined with the purported asking price seems too high for Tanev to me.  I think I'd rather pay 7 million for Shattenkirk, if that was an option.

Josh Manson seems like the guy I'd like the most.

 

[L K]

the injury risk combined with the purported asking price seems too high for Tanev to me.  I think I'd rather pay 7 million for Shattenkirk, if that was an option.

Josh Manson seems like the guy I'd like the most.

See, I would think quite the opposite on Shattenkirk.  I think Shattenkirk is better than he showed in the postseason but he's more of an offensive guy.  One thing the Leafs are lacking is good defensemen who can play well in the defensive zone.  I'm not sure that Shattenkirk makes the Leafs better in that regard although I do acknowledge that we could use his shot on the point.

The PP is likely to continue to be run with 4 forwards given that we have: Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Kadri, JVR*, Kapanen* as more offensive guys and then having guys like Brown, Komarov as "sit in front of the net" players.  Realistically we are mostly going to see Gardiner/Rielly/Carrick playing the defenseman role on the PP. 

Where the Leafs are going to need help is on the penalty kill, especially with a guy like Polak likely done/not brought back.  Marincin is a good penalty killer and after that we are really just rotating through Gardiner/Rielly who aren't best suited for stationary penalty killing.

The Leafs need more guys who are good in their own zone rather than busting the bank on a guy who got exposed pretty bad against Toronto and Pittsburgh.

 

[bustaheims]

It's the last one that really prompts the question. I'd rather keep JVR than deal him for not much more than they could get via smart UFA moving.

That's kinda where I'm at in terms of a trade involving JvR. The Leafs probably come out ahead by keeping him and signing someone like Smith instead of moving him for Tanev. I do think the Leafs can do a better in a deal, but, if the reality is that they can't, I'd rather see them move JvR for a highly thought of D prospect that's on the cusp of breaking into the league than move him in a deal that I don't think really moves the team forward.

 

[Kin]

I think that's fair.  I agree on the health issues with Tanev.  That being said, I do think that his defensive play is probably of the level that puts him in the 3-4 range. If he could play a full season a #3 and with his health issues a #4.

Again, I'm not watching him night in and night out but I think even if he's some sort of defensive juggernaut that's pushing it. Look around at some of the teams who've had success this playoffs and the kind of guys who are #3 defensemen on good teams are guys like Ryan Ellis or Cam Fowler(or whoever on Anaheim you want to say is #3) or Bouwmeester or whoever we want to say is #3 on Washington. Sure, Pittsburgh's an exception but Pittsburgh are driven by 2 guys down the middle who we don't have and it still looks like their lack of blue end talent will catch up with them.

Remember, with the presumptive idea that Rielly-Gardiner are the #1-2 guys in the mix we're already at a disadvantage with the teams who have really elite defensemen. I don't really think this team can expect a lot of success if their top three is those two and Tanev. It very well might be a pipe dream but you at least have to aim for a #3 that at least puts you in that group because otherwise you're asking the Leafs to a Blueline without star power or real depth and I just don't see that working.

 

[ZBBM]

It's the last one that really prompts the question. I'd rather keep JVR than deal him for not much more than they could get via smart UFA moving.

That's kinda where I'm at in terms of a trade involving JvR. The Leafs probably come out ahead by keeping him and signing someone like Smith instead of moving him for Tanev. I do think the Leafs can do a better in a deal, but, if the reality is that they can't, I'd rather see them move JvR for a highly thought of D prospect that's on the cusp of breaking into the league than move him in a deal that I don't think really moves the team forward.

This. Smith seems like a safe, boring, effective choice compared to most of the other spec I've been reading.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Ok, so how about the previous Lehtera and a 1st from St Louis for a minor prospect if that was on offer and either draft a prospect or put it into the bank towards an alternative dman?

 

[Kin]

Ok, so how about the previous Lehtera and a 1st from St Louis for a minor prospect if that was on offer and either draft a prospect or put it into the bank towards an alternative dman?

Sounds fine. Seems unlikely that it would be though.