Armchair GM 2018-2019

[herman]

Any particular reason for writing off Nielsen?  He had a disappointing year but he's only 21.  I certainly wouldn't bank on him in the next two years but he could easily have a bounce back year next year and look like a much better option.

Liljegren strikes me as a guy who needs a full season in the minors before being ready although maybe he surprises as a Dermott kind of callup if he gets off to a strong start next year.  Regardless, I think it rules him out as a viable option for the lineup starting next season.

He's a defenseman who can't defend.

He sure can shoot the puck into the net, so that's a plus, but that's really all he's got going for him. Basics like skating and pivoting and decision making off the play are... adventures. The Leafs, rightly, don't rely on long bombs from the point.

Might be more worthwhile to convert him to wing, but he's not particularly fast going forwards.

 

[cabber24]

Andrei Markov meets the short term bill? He's committed to the KHL for 2 years (1 more) but maybe a few extra million could sway that?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).

I wrote off Holl last season, but given the weakness on the right side, I can't ever say there's no chance on that side, unless we're talking about Corrado.

Rosen has been pretty good with the Marlies since he got adjusted (i.e. better than Borgman, but not as good as Dermott, Marincin). If they're willing to entertain him on the right side (after 3+ catastrophic injuries), he's got value. Unfortunately, his value is greater on a team that's not the Leafs.

Unless the Leafs drastically change in style on the backend, there is little hope for Rosen, Borgman. I hope the Marlies go on a hellacious long run here both for #TeamDubas and to give Babcock a really long look at what our player pool can look like if he lets go of a few hard-set ideas (boring 4th line, big-strong D requirement on PK, line reacting vs line dictating).

I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.

Ozhiganov is a bit worse (numbers-wise) than the free player we released to join his team in the KHL (Marchenko), but he does offer a different flavour of defense to what we've got. Not sure what his shot metrics look like, but he's less offensively gifted than Zaisev if that paints a picture. He has given commitment to the Leafs.

John Carlson is not likely the answer. He plays the semi-sheltered offensive D-man role. Unless Babcock suddenly decides that the new NHL is all about them goals and just goes hog-wild on offense-first-and-always, Carlson doesn't fit the niche we need filled. He's a points-getter too, so he'll be expensive and probably dreadful after the first 2 years of the new deal, especially if he gets pushed into the shutdown minutes he never played before.

Thx Herman.. Appreciate it.

 

[AvroArrow]

Thoughts on reconstructing the D:

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

Reilly - Carlson
Dermott - Hamilton
Hainsey - Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

Edit:
Sign De Haan to shift Dermott down:

Reilly - Carlson
De Haan - Hamilton
Dermott - Pysyk/Severson

 

[Guilt Trip]

I was thinking about Da Haan. He could be an option. Hey he was a plus on the worst defensive team in the league. Hamilton could be good. Doesn't Calgary want some toughness, hello Martin

 

[herman]

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

 

[AvroArrow]

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?

 

[herman]

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?

The Zaitsev one is the most difficult to see happening one for one. He's older (than Severson) and has more term and a higher salary than Pysyk and Severson. Severson appears to be supplanted, so it's not like they need someone on the right side. Florida is pretty happy with Pysyk as far as I can tell, so I don't see the incentive for either of them to target Zaitsev.

Gardiner for Hamilton is great for the Leafs, but I don't see why Calgary would want to do that, other than maybe short term cap reasons or just going kind of crazy.

That said, I'd be open to hearing some compelling arguments to the contrary.

 

[WAYNEINIONA]

Hamilton isn't going anywhere unless someone comes up with a seriously crazy offer. They may take a good look at Bozak depending on what he's looking for in dollars and term.

 

[AvroArrow]

I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).

 

[sickbeast]

Is that Hamilton the same Douggie Hamilton that we essentially traded for Phil Kessel? Man that would really burn if the Leafs lose that trade. It would be like pouring vinegar on an already open wound.

 

[dappleganger]

First thing I'd try to do is get Ottawa's conditional 1st round pick from Colorado.

Connor Brown + prospect hopefully would have traction.

I'd then send Ottawa Liljegren + Gardiner + Ottawa's and Toronto's 1st round picks for Erik Karlsson.


I think Toronto should look at having Matthews - Kadri - Nylander as the top 3 centers next year.

Look for some quality ufa's to fill out the wings and bottom D pairings.

Maybe Hamhuis or Greg Pateryn. Slim pickings for ufa's.

Not sure what people around think about throwing big money at John Carlson.

 

[herman]

I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).

They are no doubt upgrades for the Leafs and the types of defensemen we should probably be targeting. I just don?t see any reason why the other teams would entertain those proposals.

I think it will require the involvement of other teams (who need offensive defensemen, like Edmonton and every team in the Atlantic that didn?t make the playoffs, to provide the Leafs with more trade capital to get young defensive options from places like Florida, New Jersey, Anaheim, Carolina, where they have a glut of options.

 

[herman]

Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. He?s playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GM?s still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. He?s playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GM?s still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.

Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.

 

[herman]

Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.

I was thinking of them as part of packages, but you're probably right it has to be primarily an NHL transaction.

I've read recently (or heard, but can't remember the source) that prior to the Hamonic deal, Anaheim really mulled deeply about JvR for one of their D (or was it Andersen+?), but it didn't fully materialize (or our ask was too high).

Is Anaheim going to take one more big swing while Getzlaf is still mobile and Kesler's body parts are still intact? They're not going to want to be anywhere near the cap if they're rebuilding/retooling and we have cheap parts. Same thing for Carolina.

 

[Andy007]

Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?

I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

 

[cabber24]

Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?

I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

I would crap myself if they somehow got Webber. I would literally pick my spot for the parade.

 

[ZBBM]

You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-pairing defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.