• For users coming over from tmlfans.ca your username will remain the same but you will need to use the password reset feature (check your spam folder) on the login page in order to set your password. If you encounter issues, email Rick couchmanrick@gmail.com

Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

cabber24 said:
If Matthews was on the LTIR and was miraculously ready for the playoffs how do you spend the $?

Let's go shopping which available pending UFA's to target? Nelson, Vatrano, Provorov, Larsson, Kane, Konecny, Gourde, Granlund, Zucker, Dvorak, Martinez, Tanev.

I am going with Nelson, Vatrano, and Martinez with the Matthews money.

Imagine adding three pieces like that without any meaningful subtractions.
Click to expand...

Ultimately, even if the Matthews on LTIR frees up the cap space, we don't really have the assets to make most of those moves (other teams competing for these players too). Which roster players that we'd love to shed would be valuable for the receiving team? No one wants really wants Domi, Reaves, Kampf.
 
Ozzie said:
If Leafs were smart they would send Matthews to Kucherov Island and preserve him for the playoffs and add two or three more pieces to make the push.

It's a strategy that's proven to work.
Click to expand...

I mean there's no such thing as a "proven" strategy to win the Cup. Sure it's worked sometimes but teams have also done this and not won the Cup too. Vegas tried to do it again with Stone last season and gave up their top prospect, multiple 1st rounders, and other picks to load up and it still resulted in them losing in the 1st round.

Don't get me wrong, if Matthews needs the time off to be 100% for playoffs they absolutely should LTIR him and take advantage of the cap space it would provide. But I don't think "LTIR+trades=cup" is as easy as some people seem to suggest as again it's no guarantee for any success and also the Leafs trade asset well is a little dried up at the moment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cw
CarltonTheBear said:
I mean there's no such thing as a "proven" strategy to win the Cup. Sure it's worked sometimes but teams have also done this and not won the Cup too. Vegas tried to do it again with Stone last season and gave up their top prospect, multiple 1st rounders, and other picks to load up and it still resulted in them losing in the 1st round.

Don't get me wrong, if Matthews needs the time off to be 100% for playoffs they absolutely should LTIR him and take advantage of the cap space it would provide. But I don't think "LTIR+trades=cup" is as easy as some people seem to suggest as again it's no guarantee for any success and also the Leafs trade asset well is a little dried up at the moment.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Quite frankly, the success rate for teams making big additions at the deadline is quite low. Teams that make the big swings at the deadline very rarely win the Cup that spring. Even the years Tampa made significant moves, it's not like they went out and made a bunch of big swing acquisitions - they just overpaid for role players, sacrificing a lot of draft capital in the process. In fact, they made their biggest swings the year they lost in the finals. The year they used Kucherov on LTIR to massively exceed the cap, their big adds were a broken Gaborik (for LTIR space) and David Savard. The way they really took advantage of it was in the offseason leading into 20-21, keeping their key pieces and better role players on the roster instead of being cap casualties.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: cw
louisstamos said:

For me, I think Toews has been away for too long in order to be effective anymore, even as a 3C. But at the same time - on a league min deal? Very low risk/high reward potential.
Click to expand...
On a cheap deal, it certainly would be worth the experiment. Worst case scenario, he gets a run of games, doesn't look great and becomes depth or retires. Best case, he's the solution for the #3 C slot (I don't think he's capable of more than that anymore - even before he took time off, his play was starting to drop off).
 
bustaheims said:
On a cheap deal, it certainly would be worth the experiment. Worst case scenario, he gets a run of games, doesn't look great and becomes depth or retires. Best case, he's the solution for the #3 C slot (I don't think he's capable of more than that anymore - even before he took time off, his play was starting to drop off).
Click to expand...
Allegedly, his play dropped off because he was "suffering from Chronic Inflammatory Response Disorder” that appears to have been resolved (see below). As we've seen when guys come back after a hold out, it often takes them quite some time to recover their game (ie Nylander after his hold out for a few months experienced a 33% ppg drop off for the balance of that season). In Toews case, he's 14 years older than 22 yr old Nylander was, so he probably won't be able to bounce back after 2 years off like Nylander couldn't when he 22 years old missing a few months. But he won't have to reach the top 6 level Nylander did as Toews would be in the bottom 6.

This is a found wallet type deal. It costs zero talent assets - just money MLSE has lots of so that's the appeal for me. With Matthews' iffy condition, that probably dampens or limits what assets I would risk at this year's trade deadline. I'd probably take the chance though I suspect hometown Winnipeg or Colorado might be more enticing destinations for him. If he came, maybe start him on the 4th line wing as he plays himself into better game shape and hope by April that he can help at 3rd line center.

The Hockey News: Report: Maple Leafs Among Potential Suitors For Former Blackhawks Captain Jonathan Toews As Forward Eyes NHL Return
“It’s been almost two calendar years since we’ve seen Jonathan Toews on the ice but I can tell you that there’s no shortage of teams whose interest peaked over the holidays when Toews detailed his five-week healing journey in India as he’s been suffering from Chronic Inflammatory Response Disorder,” said Seravalli. “He’s feeling the best he has in years and hinted in that story that he might want to resume his NHL career.”
Click to expand...
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1877135440609771918

www.nytimes.com

Can Canucks solve Pettersson-Miller rift? Habs in playoffs? Quenneville to Rangers? Toews comeback? Ask CJ

Also in Chris Johnston's NHL mailbag: What is the likelihood that Russia will be permitted to send a team to the 2026 Olympics?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Chris Johnston in a mailbag post:
There are very few guarantees in life, but I’m willing to offer you one: The Leafs will acquire a middle-six center before the trade deadline passes at 3 p.m. ET on March 7. It’s a need management identified months ago. As for who it will be? The market of available players hasn’t taken enough shape yet to allow us to identify the top candidate. But the Leafs have the picks and prospects needed to make that kind of addition, and they have the desire, too.
Click to expand...

I don't know that Nick Robertson converts so readily to a 3rd line centre unless there's a slightly uggo cap hit with term coming back, and some additional bodies out the door (Timmins, Holmberg)
 
CJ also said back in 22 that the core 4 would be broken up. He also said Marner was gone this past summer. I can see Robertson getting moved via trade or pressbox so this isn't anything out of the blue or newsworthy. Leafs have others they can move as well. Will they?
 
Guilt Trip said:
CJ also said back in 22 that the core 4 would be broken up. He also said Marner was gone this past summer. I can see Robertson getting moved via trade or pressbox so this isn't anything out of the blue or newsworthy. Leafs have others they can move as well. Will they?
Click to expand...

CJ just reporting what he hears so basically that’s what the FO wanted to do at that point but it didn’t get done for whatever reason.
 
bustaheims said:
Exactly. Quite frankly, the success rate for teams making big additions at the deadline is quite low. Teams that make the big swings at the deadline very rarely win the Cup that spring. Even the years Tampa made significant moves, it's not like they went out and made a bunch of big swing acquisitions - they just overpaid for role players, sacrificing a lot of draft capital in the process. In fact, they made their biggest swings the year they lost in the finals. The year they used Kucherov on LTIR to massively exceed the cap, their big adds were a broken Gaborik (for LTIR space) and David Savard. The way they really took advantage of it was in the offseason leading into 20-21, keeping their key pieces and better role players on the roster instead of being cap casualties.
Click to expand...
I mean we literally threw the kitchen sink at acquisitions the year we picked up ROR and it resulted in one won round. Many commentators at the time were worried about how the team would gel after turning over so much of the roster part way into the season. Just adding for the sake of adding isn't a guarantee for anything and it's also questionable as to whether it even increases your chances.
 
Bender said:
I mean we literally threw the kitchen sink at acquisitions the year we picked up ROR and it resulted in one won round. Many commentators at the time were worried about how the team would gel after turning over so much of the roster part way into the season. Just adding for the sake of adding isn't a guarantee for anything and it's also questionable as to whether it even increases your chances.
Click to expand...
Yup. That's why my preference is always to focus on adding depth/role players at the deadline rather than rental pieces that will get significant minutes - 3rd line C, 4th liners, etc. No one that should cost significant assets. In general, if you need to make big moves at the deadline, you're probably not good enough to win the Cup as it is.
 
bustaheims said:
Yup. That's why my preference is always to focus on adding depth/role players at the deadline rather than rental pieces that will get significant minutes - 3rd line C, 4th liners, etc. No one that should cost significant assets. In general, if you need to make big moves at the deadline, you're probably not good enough to win the Cup as it is.
Click to expand...
I liked your post but I'm quoting for emphasis.
 
I think the Leafs should go big name hunting when it comes to acquiring a center. Their center depth in the organization outside of Matthews is very thin. I like Minten, but don’t see him being anything more than a 3rd line center. I’m going all out on a guy like Cozens, and yes the Leafs could actually fit that contract in for this season. The cost won’t be cheap but I’d be more than willing to include someone like Cowan, 2026 1st + .
 
Matthews34 said:
I think the Leafs should go big name hunting when it comes to acquiring a center. Their center depth in the organization outside of Matthews is very thin. I like Minten, but don’t see him being anything more than a 3rd line center. I’m going all out on a guy like Cozens, and yes the Leafs could actually fit that contract in for this season. The cost won’t be cheap but I’d be more than willing to include someone like Cowan, 2026 1st + .
Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree completely but it's an interesting idea.
 
cw said:
I liked your post but I'm quoting for emphasis.
Click to expand...
I'm usually in this boat as well, but I'm a little concerned about the centre depth going into this spring...Matthews may not be 100%, and Tavares is carrying a fair load here that might wear him down come the playoffs...then what? Some of the teams the boys have to go through, including perhaps the team they're playing tonight, are much deeper at that spot.

I know they say they're looking for a centre with term, and I'd think that's going to cost them not insignificantly in terms of assets. It's the attrition I'm concerned about, and we're gambling here in Marner's potential last year of contributing to our favourite team, so maybe it's worth the gamble on a guy that has shown 2C potential for the next couple of seasons.
 
Frank E said:
I'm usually in this boat as well, but I'm a little concerned about the centre depth going into this spring...Matthews may not be 100%, and Tavares is carrying a fair load here that might wear him down come the playoffs...then what? Some of the teams the boys have to go through, including perhaps the team they're playing tonight, are much deeper at that spot.

I know they say they're looking for a centre with term, and I'd think that's going to cost them not insignificantly in terms of assets. It's the attrition I'm concerned about, and we're gambling here in Marner's potential last year of contributing to our favourite team, so maybe it's worth the gamble on a guy that has shown 2C potential for the next couple of seasons.
Click to expand...
That's fair.

However, some other considerations:

How healthy is Matthews? How much of a talent bet do you want to make this year? Hard for us to say because we don't have access to the medical reports/doctors.
Matthews contract window is 3 years after this.

Leafs and Tavares are allegedly chatting about an extension.
McMann, Knies, Domi, Robertson all shoot left like Tavares does if the idea is to move him to a wing.
Maybe to an off wing but Marner & Nylander are pretty good right wingers ...
He's pretty good as a 2nd line center this year - scoring like a 1st line center (13th in league scoring among centers)

We got Minten coming along probably for the 3rd line.

If you add a 2nd line center, Tavares probably drops to the 3rd line soon. Minten replaces him next year?
Minten and a pick might be what it takes to get a 2nd line center but:

Then you have to fit all that under the cap that Knies, Marner and Tavares are going to make tough.

It is a Rubik's Cube they have to solve.

An economical 3rd line center could certainly more easily fit this year with Matthews & Tavares 1 & 2.
If he has term, that could help in the years to come if his cap hit isn't too big or there is retention and Tavares takes a big cut.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top