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Armchair GM Thread 2025/26

herman

herman

Well-known member
Nothing seismic has happened yet as MLSE has a board meeting scheduled for today, but the cap sheet is due for a shake up:

Under ContractCap Hit (M)ExpiryUFACap Hit (M)
Auston Matthews13.252028John Tavares11
William Nylander11.52032Mitch Marner10.9
Max Domi3.752028Max Pacioretty0.874
David Kampf2.42027Steven Lorentz0.775
Calle Jarnkrok2.12026
Scott Laughton1.52026
Bobby McMann1.352026
Ryan Reaves1.352026
Matthew Knies0.925RFA
Nick Robertson0.875RFA
Pontus Holmberg0.8RFA
Max Pacioretty's Performance Bonus0.6262026
Morgan Rielly7.52030Jani Hakanpaa1.47
Jake McCabe4.512030
Chris Tanev4.52030
Oliver Ekman-Larsson3.52028
Brandon Carlo3.492027
Simon Benoit1.352027
Matt Benning1.252026
Phillipe Myers0.852027
Anthony Stolarz2.52026
Joseph Woll3.672028
Outside the NHLUFACap Hit (M)
Easton Cowan0.8742028Alex Nylander0.775
Jacob Quillan0.8752026Nick Abruzzese0.775
Borya Valis0.8732028Alex Steeves0.775
Luke Haymes0.8752028
Roni Hirvonen0.857RFA
Ryan Tverberg0.8522026
Ty Voit0.8012026
Braeden Kressler0.8012026
Cedric Pare0.775RFA
Reese Johnson0.775RFA
Semyon Der-ArguchintsevRFA
Ben Danford0.9322028Dakota Mermis0.775
Cade Webber0.8252027Nick Mattinen0.775
Topi Niemela0.857RFA
Mikko Kokkonen0.847RFA
Noah Chadwick0.8012028
William Villeneuve0.818RFA
Marshall Rifai0.7752027
John Prokop0.8752026
Blake Smith0.8752028
UFA
Artur Akhtyamov0.8522026Matt Murray0.875
Vyacheslav Peksa0.8522026
Dennis Hildeby0.843RFA
Subtractions
Subtotal from NHL73.54Subtotal from NHL25.02
Subtotal from Outside NHL18.51Subtotal from Outside NHL4.75
Total Cap Hit (before RFA extensions)92.05Total Subtractions29.77

Salary Cap for 2025-26 is 95.5M, which makes the offseason threshold 105.5M before opening day assignments.
Barring trades and signings, the Leafs have ~13M in raw cap space to work with before it gets hairy. There's a minor bump from the ELCs that are exempt due to slide rules if they are staying in junior (Ben Danford and any drafted prospect the Leafs sign in the upcoming draft are the only eligibles).

NHL Roster before extensions/signings

______ - Matthews - ______
______ - ______ - Nylander
McMann - Domi - Jarnkrok
Laughton - Kampf - Reaves

McCabe - Tanev
Rielly - Carlo
Benoit - Ekman-Larsson
Benning, Myers

Stolarz
Woll
 
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www.nytimes.com

Should NHL teams spend their cap space now or save for 2026? How the UFA classes compare

Teams have to contemplate whether this is the summer to swing big or wait for a potential star-studded free agent class in 2026.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Screenshot-2025-05-21-at-6.09.20%E2%80%AFPM.png

Screenshot-2025-05-21-at-6.09.36%E2%80%AFPM.png
 
I wonder if there will be an attempt to target a team like Winnipeg, who is kind of in a similar position as Toronto in terms of playoff problems and may look for a shakeup? Perhaps a potential sign and trade with Marner for Connor, with an extension attached (and another piece/pieces of ours going the other way)? Does that happen at all?
 
Andy007 said:
I wonder if there will be an attempt to target a team like Winnipeg, who is kind of in a similar position as Toronto in terms of playoff problems and may look for a shakeup? Perhaps a potential sign and trade with Marner for Connor, with an extension attached (and another piece/pieces of ours going the other way)? Does that happen at all?
Click to expand...
Don't see Marner going to the Peg. I think he goes west coast or south where the air is warm. That's where I'd go.
 
2025 Salaries for (Marner (11) + Tavares (11) + Knies(1)) + 7.5 million cap increase is approximately 30 million?

So if we did something roughly like this:
Knies : 8 million
Tavares : 6 million
Ehlers : 10 million
#2-3 Center : 6 million

And filler for the rest?

That could work? (Or am I off bigly?)
 
Guilt Trip said:
Not a chance you're getting a 1st. Maybe a 3rd/4th tops
Click to expand...
The "first" was partly in jest but I was just curious as to what the consensus would be. If SJ really works as a prime destination and the Marner camp wants to maximize the overall contract dollars, the rights for the #1 free agent in a weak year might creep up in value...(although I doubt they'd entertain this route anyway; it's gonna be an open market, drive the number up situation, I imagine)
 
Andy007 said:
it's gonna be an open market, drive the number up situation, I imagine
Click to expand...

I would like them to entertain the idea of pre-emptively opening UFA for Marner, like we suggested last year.

Give Ferris and other teams permission to woo Marner like 2 weeks before July 1. Bring back to the Leafs' table a shortlist of reasonable destinations, their cap hit appetite, and what they'd offer for the Sign and Trade by a certain deadline, and we make it happen. Everybody wins a little.

The Leafs get something back.
Marner still gets to choose his destination, get an 8-year deal, and probably wins back some favour from Toronto fans if he cares about that.
And several contending teams will potentially muck up their cap sheets and plans to make this play because they saw how well it has worked out for Dallas.

The UFA class is basically dog-poo after Marner, so getting a jump on the process to land the biggest ticket in the market should be appealing to some owners.

Example:
CHI Receives: Mitch Marner (13.5M x 8), David Kampf
TOR Receives: Sam Rinzel, Ilya Mikheyev, 2026 4th
 
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