Armchair GM Thread 2025/26

[cw]

I respect your opinion but I just can't agree with this.

If we all agreed on everything around here, it would get pretty dull.

This year, they're facetiming Matthews a few times - a year before he can re-sign - hoping he'll hang around ...

Within minutes of accepting the GM job in 2023, during the media conference. Treliving declared re-signing Matthews was "priority 1". And then in Sept 2023: “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Willy’ signed. Willy is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.”
No concern about NMCs - just a priority to re-sign both of them.

When Marner's contract came up, did Treliving say “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Mitch’ signed. Mitch is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.” ?
Nope

June 4, 2024

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798161168554479686

Why is Marner's no trade clause an issue if all they are trying to do is re-sign him like Matthews & Nylander and that is their top priority?

Treliving effectively told Leafs fans that Marner is not a priority to re-sign and that Mitch "controls a lot of" where Treliving could trade him (and how much he might get back...).
The whole city and Leafs Nation have been told by their GM that Mitch is a disposable player - not essential to Treliving's aspirations to win a Cup in Toronto.
Now, if Marner doesn't relinquish his NMC negotiated in good faith, a bunch of Leafs fans are going to hate him - while his pregnant wife is waiting to deliver their first born to Marner's Toronto family.

In employment law, this is something like constructive dismissal - where an employer unilaterally and significantly alters a fundamental term of employment or creates a toxic work environment (including demeaning the player with his teammates because the GM doesn't regard him as essential to a Cup winning roster), effectively pressuring an employee to resign.

That set off a major media circus/inferno - everyone debating how much they could get for Marner and how to spend his cap space.
That is not how they're treating Matthews now nor how they treated Willy & Auston in 2023.

So why would Marner want to hang around a GM who doesn't want him? If his GM wanted him, he wouldn't bring up his NMC - he'd just re-sign him.
Why would Marner want to hang around Leafs Nation where a significant portion of them have been told by the Leafs GM that Marner needs to waive his NMC so he can dump him? And where his properties are already being trashed and family members getting threats?

Jack Eichel said Marner was mistreated. Toronto Star and Pierre McGuire said Marner was "run out of town". I agree with them. If they wanted Marner in Toronto, they would have shut up, not brought up NMCs publicly and re-signed him - like they're trying to do with Matthews now.

 

[Bender]

You know I deeply respect you, but come on, Marner did not get run off.

It's truly ad nauseum now. To a point where there's no reason to engage anymore.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If we all agreed on everything around here, it would get pretty dull.

This year, they're facetiming Matthews a few times - a year before he can re-sign - hoping he'll hang around ...

Within minutes of accepting the GM job in 2023, during the media conference. Treliving declared re-signing Matthews was "priority 1". And then in Sept 2023: “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Willy’ signed. Willy is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.”
No concern about NMCs - just a priority to re-sign both of them.

When Marner's contract came up, did Treliving say “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Mitch’ signed. Mitch is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.” ?
Nope

June 4, 2024

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798161168554479686

Why is Marner's no trade clause an issue if all they are trying to do is re-sign him like Matthews & Nylander and that is their top priority?

Treliving effectively told Leafs fans that Marner is not a priority to re-sign and that Mitch "controls a lot of" where Treliving could trade him (and how much he might get back...).
The whole city and Leafs Nation have been told by their GM that Mitch is a disposable player - not essential to Treliving's aspirations to win a Cup in Toronto.
Now, if Marner doesn't relinquish his NMC negotiated in good faith, a bunch of Leafs fans are going to hate him - while his pregnant wife is waiting to deliver their first born to Marner's Toronto family.

In employment law, this is something like constructive dismissal - where an employer unilaterally and significantly alters a fundamental term of employment or creates a toxic work environment (including demeaning the player with his teammates because the GM doesn't regard him as essential to a Cup winning roster), effectively pressuring an employee to resign.

That set off a major media circus/inferno - everyone debating how much they could get for Marner and how to spend his cap space.
That is not how they're treating Matthews now nor how they treated Willy & Auston in 2023.

So why would Marner want to hang around a GM who doesn't want him? If his GM wanted him, he wouldn't bring up his NMC - he'd just re-sign him.
Why would Marner want to hang around Leafs Nation where a significant portion of them have been told by the Leafs GM that Marner needs to waive his NMC so he can dump him? And where his properties are already being trashed and family members getting threats?

Jack Eichel said Marner was mistreated. Toronto Star and Pierre McGuire said Marner was "run out of town". I agree with them. If they wanted Marner in Toronto, they would have shut up, not brought up NMCs publicly and re-signed him - like they're trying to do with Matthews now.

Maybe Marner gave Treliving an indication he didn't want to re-sign before all this.

 

[Frank E]

Maybe Marner gave Treliving an indication he didn't want to re-sign before all this.

Which is exactly why they were trying to trade him for Rantanan.

 

[mr grieves]

Maybe Marner gave Treliving an indication he didn't want to re-sign before all this.

Obviously.

 

[cw]

Maybe Marner gave Treliving an indication he didn't want to re-sign before all this.

May 6, 2024

Mitch Marner wants to remain with the Maple Leafs: ‘That’s the goal’

During his end-of-season availability, Mitch Marner was clear: He wants to stay in Toronto long-term.

www.nytimes.com

... during his end-of-season availability, Marner was clear: He wants to stay in Toronto long-term.

“That would be the goal. I’ve expressed my love for this place, this city. Obviously I grew up here. I’ll start thinking about (a contract extension) now and try to figure something out,” Marner said.

That was stated after the season, nearly two months before he could sign an extension.
He's born & raised in Toronto area. His family and his wife's family reside in Toronto. Like Tavares, playing for the Leafs was a dream come true.

Within a month, Treliving was talking to the media about Marner's NMC and kicking around his options to trade him with the media but how Marner's NMC controls that - a month before Marner could re-sign. How does bringing up Marner's NMC with the media a month before Maner is able to re-sign help his relationship with the player?

Even if Marner was making rumblings about moving on behind the scenes, and there is nothing credible that he was, if you don't want to lose him, you keep a lid on the contract and NMC chatter with respect to the media.

But if you are a GM who wants his cap space and to maximize a return by getting Marner to budge on his NMC, you poison the negotiating water by going to the media and igniting the media circus that Treliving did with his NMC remarks. Now the media chatter is "what can we get for trading Marner?", "how can the team spend his cap space?" and "clearly the Leafs GM doesn't see Marner as an essential fixture for the Leafs Cup aspirations - the way he prioritized Matthews and Nylander"

That turned a significant percentage of fans and media against retaining Marner - to help them get Marner to relinquish the NMC he negotiated in good faith. The speed of how quickly that occurred - right after Marner declared he wanted to re-sign, that it occurred in the media authored by Treliving and that it occurred before Marner could sign anything is damning. You don't do that to a player you want to keep. They didn't do it to Matthews or Nylander. It is something you would do if you want the player to give you relief on his NMC and if you want to use his cap space for other contracts. It is slick because it keeps a bunch of the blood off your GM hands. It is almost textbook constructive dismissal.

 

[Joe S.]

If we all agreed on everything around here, it would get pretty dull.

This year, they're facetiming Matthews a few times - a year before he can re-sign - hoping he'll hang around ...

Within minutes of accepting the GM job in 2023, during the media conference. Treliving declared re-signing Matthews was "priority 1". And then in Sept 2023: “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Willy’ signed. Willy is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.”
No concern about NMCs - just a priority to re-sign both of them.

When Marner's contract came up, did Treliving say “It’s a priority, we want to get ‘Mitch’ signed. Mitch is a really good player and you want to keep your good players.” ?
Nope

June 4, 2024

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798161168554479686

Why is Marner's no trade clause an issue if all they are trying to do is re-sign him like Matthews & Nylander and that is their top priority?

Treliving effectively told Leafs fans that Marner is not a priority to re-sign and that Mitch "controls a lot of" where Treliving could trade him (and how much he might get back...).
The whole city and Leafs Nation have been told by their GM that Mitch is a disposable player - not essential to Treliving's aspirations to win a Cup in Toronto.
Now, if Marner doesn't relinquish his NMC negotiated in good faith, a bunch of Leafs fans are going to hate him - while his pregnant wife is waiting to deliver their first born to Marner's Toronto family.

In employment law, this is something like constructive dismissal - where an employer unilaterally and significantly alters a fundamental term of employment or creates a toxic work environment (including demeaning the player with his teammates because the GM doesn't regard him as essential to a Cup winning roster), effectively pressuring an employee to resign.

That set off a major media circus/inferno - everyone debating how much they could get for Marner and how to spend his cap space.
That is not how they're treating Matthews now nor how they treated Willy & Auston in 2023.

So why would Marner want to hang around a GM who doesn't want him? If his GM wanted him, he wouldn't bring up his NMC - he'd just re-sign him.
Why would Marner want to hang around Leafs Nation where a significant portion of them have been told by the Leafs GM that Marner needs to waive his NMC so he can dump him? And where his properties are already being trashed and family members getting threats?

Jack Eichel said Marner was mistreated. Toronto Star and Pierre McGuire said Marner was "run out of town". I agree with them. If they wanted Marner in Toronto, they would have shut up, not brought up NMCs publicly and re-signed him - like they're trying to do with Matthews now.

These are all valid points and yes it's a 2 way street. However, my main beef is with the narrative that the fans chased him out of town. I still do not believe he was targetted and harrased in person and has his properties trashed. I just don't buy it. That's not a Toronto thing at all.

You will not find me defending Treliving in any way, but he came in at the tail end and bungled the whole thing. Put him aside for a minute, Shanahan and Dubas bent over backwards trying to keep him happy. Marner is the one who took the shorter contract. You could tell he just didn't want to stay here. And from what I understand, when Dubas realized that Marner wasn't planning on staying, was going to try and move him, and Shanahan put a stop to it.

So my assertion is that up until the Treliving era, management (other than Babcock) did everything they could to keep him happy. At the end of the day, I am positive Marner never had any intention of staying with the leafs the second he became a UFA.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

The romanticized version of being a home town hero can also do a 180 and suddenly become ugly and comes with lots of pressure. Maybe Mitch just couldn't hack it anymore.

 

[herman]

In the offseason leading up to his final contract season, Marner’s reps told Treliving and the front office that they will not be negotiating in season (per Adam Wylde who has deep Rogers contacts). During that time, they turned down a full term contract offer larger than Nylander’s and his family was actively house shopping in Vegas (per Steve Simmons) while Marner was chatting up Patches and Reaves about living in Vegas (per Marner) well before the deadline.

He was already mentally gone while playing out the string. Only reason he did the sign and trade was because of the spectre of tampering that was about to be levied. He did a lot well on the ice, but Marner was not worth the off ice hassle while he was a Leaf, especially when he wilted noticeably in playoff situations while demanding he receive the top line minutes. Teammates were instructed by the PR team regularly on talking points to defend Marner to make sure he stayed happy, while he took breaks from speaking to the media as an assistant captain (another one of those negotiated requirements for his contract).

Now that he isn’t forcing his way onto line 1, he has the freedom to perform to his potential.

 

[cw]

These are all valid points and yes it's a 2 way street. However, my main beef is with the narrative that the fans chased him out of town. I still do not believe he was targetted and harrased in person and has his properties trashed. I just don't buy it. That's not a Toronto thing at all.

We agree on this: I also do not believe the Leafs fans chased him out of town. I do think what Treliving did turned a bunch of fans and media against Marner - which put pressure on him to leave.

I do believe the reports about trashing. There were too many reports over a number of years from a variety of people - some ex players - on radio, online and in print media. He's living in a gated community now (they have their own police/security force and big walls, etc and you have to go through security to get in and out). Why would he bother to do that if it was all BS? To keep up appearances in Toronto - that he's left? Pretty expensive thing to do - not just financially - in terms of freedom. My folks lived in one. You go for a walk or try to play golf and the security is constantly wandering or driving around gawking at you - maybe because I was a visitor and not a resident. They don't bother you directly. I just find it kind of creepy - a bit of your privacy is gone ... but "you are safe"

Here is where we probably can find common ground: it was not a lot of Leafs fans - only takes a few wackos. We're seeing it in all sports - it is not a hockey thing. It is not a Toronto thing.

I've met a lot of Leafs over the years. I never ask for an autograph or a picture. I say hi if warranted and treat them like a normal person and then try to leave them alone - to not invade their privacy. I bet most Leafs fans are like that.

 

[cw]

In the offseason leading up to his final contract season, Marner’s reps told Treliving and the front office that they will not be negotiating in season (per Adam Wylde who has deep Rogers contacts). During that time, they turned down a full term contract offer larger than Nylander’s and his family was actively house shopping in Vegas (per Steve Simmons) while Marner was chatting up Patches and Reaves about living in Vegas (per Marner) well before the deadline.

There were multiple reports of him looking at houses in Vegas area in June 2025 - shortly before he signed July 1 - a year after Treliving's press scrum talking about his NMC

In early May, 2024, Marner said he was receptive to starting working on an extension
In early June, 2024, Treliving floated in the media exploring getting some relief from Marner's NMC.
In late June, 2024, Marner's agent told the Leafs about not negotiating AFTER the NMC media session Treliving did to tamp down the media circus Treliving inflamed. Marner's agent told Treliving they would not be providing a list of teams, there would be no contract discussions and that they were going to start the season in Toronto - to shut down the chatter Treliving instigated.

In Sept 2024, as the season was getting underway, Marner said his agent and Treliving could discuss a contract extension.

Marner open to having contract talks with Leafs during season

Drafted fourth overall by Toronto in 2015, Marner has developed into one of the league's better two-way wingers and playmakers.

toronto.citynews.ca

Marner reiterates his desire to play in Toronto.

 

[mr grieves]

May 6, 2024

Mitch Marner wants to remain with the Maple Leafs: ‘That’s the goal’

During his end-of-season availability, Mitch Marner was clear: He wants to stay in Toronto long-term.

www.nytimes.com

That was stated after the season, nearly two months before he could sign an extension.

The transcription is wrong. He doesn’t say it’s “the goal.” He says it’s “a goal.” Marner knew he was done here. I think Dubas knew he would be done a year earlier.

 

[cw]

The transcription is wrong. He doesn’t say it’s “the goal.” He says it’s “a goal.” Marner knew he was done here. I think Dubas knew he would be done a year earlier.

Elliot Friedman helps make it crystal clear in this interview with Marner in Sept 2024 following Marner's passionate statement about wanting to remain a Leaf when camp opened:

Marner hopes to be life-time Maple Leaf: ‘Passionate about this team’

www.sportsnet.ca

For fun, let's play around with the notion of "a goal"
If "a goal" of Marner's was to sign with the Leafs, was there another goal to sign with some other NHL team and be the first in NHL history to play for two NHL teams at the same time? I never heard Marner express that.
All NHL contracts I recall seeing limit the NHL player to playing for one NHL team at a time. If Marner achieves "a goal" of re-signing with the Leafs, it would seem to nuke any other wildly perceived goal of Marner's to sign elsewhere at the same time, wouldn't it?
I do not see how "a goal" or "the goal" really matters once he's achieved that goal. I don't know how you could have a goal of signing elsewhere and another goal of signing with the Leafs.

If Marner didn't want to be in Toronto, when Treliving asked for a list of teams Marner would accept a trade to, why wouldn't they just hand Treliving a list of teams in June 2024 if Marner didn't want to be in Toronto? Marner could have got out of Toronto in 5 minutes if he didn't want to be in Toronto. He could have gone to Carolina at the 2025 deadline. After July 1, 2024, he could go as a rental to cash in on his UFA status later or sign and trade. If Marner, contrary to what he was telling everyone, really wanted out of Toronto so badly, why would he hang around? Treliving wanted to explore trading him - he said so. It was Marner and his agent who shut that down by not providing a list of teams.

 

[mr grieves]

This isn't that complicated, cw. He didn't want to leave Toronto before his contract was up, and he didn't want to sign another contract with Toronto.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

This isn't that complicated, cw. He didn't want to leave Toronto before his contract was up, and he didn't want to sign another contract with Toronto.

I think he knew the last two years were the best chance they had to win. When that didn't happen, he decided to go elsewhere. I think he gave it as all in Toronto and the supporting cast just wasn't there.

Marner has a hat trick and an assist in the second period as I type this.

 

[cw]

This isn't that complicated, cw. He didn't want to leave Toronto before his contract was up, and he didn't want to sign another contract with Toronto.

What point is there to hang around a team you do not want to continue to be with?

Marner said "his goal" was to re-sign in May 2024. Marner emphatically and passionately said he wanted to re-sign again in Sept 2024 to the media and Friedman. Marner authorized his agent to haggle a deal with Treliving during the season in Sept 2024. Why go to all that trouble if he didn't want to sign another contract? Why not simply, as others have done: "we won't negotiate during the season"? End of story. Friedman floated that during his interview but Marner felt his agent could haggle with Treliving.

I think he was hoping the season and playoffs would go better so he could re-sign. He's a life long Leafs fan. This was his dream - not that different than Tavares. This is his home town for his family and his wife's family. Do you think those families first choice was to want his young son (and probably subsequent children) to grow up in Vegas - thousands of miles away? My wife & I are in the process of moving. 99.99% of our priorities of how we are doing that is to be where we can continue to help and be with our children and grandchildren. Almost nothing else is on our radar until that is optimized. When my parents were alive, making sure they had access to their grandchildren was a top priority. This would be a heck of a blow to his son's grandparents.

If the Leafs made the Conference or Cup finals, do you think his GM, some media or some Leafs fans would still be trying to run him off? Don't you think that would have died down if they had good playoff results or he was the favorite to win the Conn Smythe? When his GM tried to trade him at the deadline, and social & sports media got ugly after they lost in the playoffs - that is when he ultimately decided he had to move on. They probably had to consider and line up Plan B well before then but the ultimate decision would be decided by the playoffs. That aligns with his actions and words all year long and what he said after he left. And his motivations would align with the vast majority of men with families. As a family man, it is not that hard to get your head around.

 

[mr grieves]

Marner said "his goal" was to re-sign in May 2024.

He said “that would be a goal.” Not “my” or “the” or “the goal for me.”

Here’s Marner on the in-year situation with the Leafs, from when he joined Vegas:

As soon as the year started up, we were ready to commit, play hockey, and see what would happen. At the same time, we were willing to take it the distance. We kind of told Toronto that was the plan.

You can parse that muddle however you’d like, but it’s muddle and that’s what’s telling.

I’m not sure what’s so difficult about accepting that Marner made the same decision you say that Matthews is in the process of making. He made a good choice for himself. Good for him.

 

[cw]

He said “that would be a goal.” Not “my” or “the” or “the goal for me.”

Here’s Marner on the in-year situation with the Leafs, from when he joined Vegas:


You can parse that muddle however you’d like, but it’s muddle and that’s what’s telling.

I’m not sure what’s so difficult about accepting that Marner made the same decision you say that Matthews is in the process of making. He made a good choice for himself. Good for him.

"At the same time, we were willing to take it the distance. We kind of told Toronto that was the plan."

Which is to see how the playoffs went - as I said.
It also is not saying "we are" taking it the distance because he left the door open for his agent and Treliving to discuss it.
He was saying that they were willing to do so but not that they must. That is a negotiating position - something his agent should do to pressure Treliving.

Marner's decision is not the same as Matthews because Marner would be making a decision to continue to play with Matthews. With Marner, they were a 4th place team. Without Marner, they tumbled to 28th (not all due to Marner's departure but a hunk of it was).
If Marner was in Toronto in 2025-26, I think they make the playoffs for example. Maybe Marner does a bridge deal for a couple of more seasons with Matthews. Who knows.

Matthews doesn't have the option of continuing to play with Marner in Toronto. In my opinion, he's lost his Adam Oates. And time is marching on. His contract decision is 2 seasons after Marners. The Leafs aged D is 2 years older, etc. So it is not the same decision. The closing window has been closing for 2 years longer.

 

[mr grieves]

Matthews doesn't have the option of continuing to play with Marner in Toronto. In my opinion, he's lost his Adam Oates. And time is marching on. His contract decision is 2 seasons after Marners. The Leafs aged D is 2 years older, etc. So it is not the same decision. The closing window has been closing for 2 years longer.

It isn’t literally the same decision, but it is fundamentally the same one: an elite player looks around at his team—supporting cast, young players coming, how management improves things—and decides that his best chance to contribute to a winning program is elsewhere.

 

[cw]

It isn’t literally the same decision, but it is fundamentally the same one: an elite player looks around at his team—supporting cast, young players coming, how management improves things—and decides that his best chance to contribute to a winning program is elsewhere.

When Marner looked around, his team was 4th in pts win%
4th place Toronto might have been able to fix itself for another somewhat credible kick at the can
over the next year or two.

As Matthews looks around, his team, without Marner, is 28th in pts win%
There is virtually no way they will be a credible contender next season.
With the diminishing UFA market, they might require luck to get back to the playoffs.
Anything can happen in sports but the odds would be dismal.
By July 1, 2027, Matthews will probably move on to a place where he has a shot to win.