Canadiens @ Leafs - May 27th, 7:00pm - CBC, TSN 1050

[bustaheims]

This year Montreal (5 on 5) had a 54.4 CF%, 65.1 xGF, 52.2 XGA and a 58.7 SCF%. Their analytic stats are well above league average. High danger shots for, against, etc; all are very good. They are not a 12th place Conference team. Combine very average goaltending (.901 Price save %) with an extended absence to Gallagher and you get what looks like average to below average overall stats. A healthy Canadiens team with playoff Carey Price is not exactly a pushover.

Montreal is one of the weird cases in terms of analytics. Their numbers are significantly boosted by quantity over quality (they had the 4th most shot attempts in all situations, 3rd most 5-on-5), which is part of the reason why their share of high danger is much more average (51.9% 5-on-5, 49.8% in all situations), as was their xGF% in all situations (49.9% - just a tick higher than their actual goal share of 48.9%). They also don't have much by way of finishing talent, which led to their 7.5% 5-on-5 shooting percentage.

Also, you have to consider the talent of the teams they were playing against. The Leafs were clearly the best in the North, but I wouldn't say that's true of the Atlantic, where they'd be in a group that includes Tampa, Florida, and Boston - not to mention having to play the rest of the league, including multiple games against Carolina, NYI, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc. This past season is just not a very good barometer overall.

Additionally, when you look at the previous 3 seasons, Price's performance this season seems less like an aberration and much closer to the level of performance that should be expected from him at this point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

When/if Foligno comes back, I'd throw him back on the ice with Marner and Matthews. I'd leave Nylander on his own with Kerfoot and Galcenyuk. I'd bump Hyman down to the third line(where he's at his best).

I'd be down for this but my gut tells me Keefe won't break that top line up. Just with the amount of minutes that top line plays he's going to want Hyman getting those instead of Foligno. I agree with keeping that 2nd line together though, Kerfoot has played much better in the 2C spot than I would have figured he would. So that would leave Foligno with Engvall and Mikheyev which seems like a good/similar alternative to your suggestion.

 

[rdowdall]

This year Montreal (5 on 5) had a 54.4 CF%, 65.1 xGF, 52.2 XGA and a 58.7 SCF%. Their analytic stats are well above league average. High danger shots for, against, etc; all are very good. They are not a 12th place Conference team. Combine very average goaltending (.901 Price save %) with an extended absence to Gallagher and you get what looks like average to below average overall stats. A healthy Canadiens team with playoff Carey Price is not exactly a pushover.

Montreal is one of the weird cases in terms of analytics. Their numbers are significantly boosted by quantity over quality (they had the 4th most shot attempts in all situations, 3rd most 5-on-5), which is part of the reason why their share of high danger is much more average (51.9% 5-on-5, 49.8% in all situations), as was their xGF% in all situations (49.9% - just a tick higher than their actual goal share of 48.9%). They also don't have much by way of finishing talent, which led to their 7.5% 5-on-5 shooting percentage.

Also, you have to consider the talent of the teams they were playing against. The Leafs were clearly the best in the North, but I wouldn't say that's true of the Atlantic, where they'd be in a group that includes Tampa, Florida, and Boston - not to mention having to play the rest of the league, including multiple games against Carolina, NYI, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc. This past season is just not a very good barometer overall.

Additionally, when you look at the previous 3 seasons, Price's performance this season seems less like an aberration and much closer to the level of performance that should be expected from him at this point.

I agree that the regular-season numbers are not stellar, but when you look at the playoff numbers from the last 4 times he has been in the playoffs,  I think it shows that he can elevate:

Season            Team  GP    GS    W    L      T    OT    SA  GA    GAA    S    SV% SO      MIN
2014-2015        MTL 12 12 6 6 -- -- 352 28 2.23 324 .920 1 751:43
2016-2017        MTL 6 6 2 4 -- -- 179 12 1.86 167 .933 0 387:28
2019-2020 MTL 10 10 5 5 -- -- 282 18 1.78 264 .936 2 605:32
2020-2021 MTL 5 5 2 3 -- -- 160 13 2.66 147 .919 0 293:10

 

[Andy007]

This year Montreal (5 on 5) had a 54.4 CF%, 65.1 xGF, 52.2 XGA and a 58.7 SCF%. Their analytic stats are well above league average. High danger shots for, against, etc; all are very good. They are not a 12th place Conference team. Combine very average goaltending (.901 Price save %) with an extended absence to Gallagher and you get what looks like average to below average overall stats. A healthy Canadiens team with playoff Carey Price is not exactly a pushover.

There's truth to both sides of this argument. At the end of the day Montreal finished the season with a .527 points percentage, that translates to 86 points over an 82 game season. That's well, well below the usual cut off point for the playoffs and in a regular divisional format they definitely finish behind at least Tampa, Toronto, Florida, Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, and New York. It's pretty much undeniable that they only made the playoffs this year because of how the divisions were formatted.

But yes on the flip side their record was probably worse than their actual fully healthy (Price, Weber, Gallagher)/fully motivated (Price) line-up suggests.

All good points, and, as Busta mentioned, they do lack the high-end talent/skill to be able to finish off some of their better chances. I'm not trying to suggest they are a great team or that Toronto shouldn't 100% win this series; I just think that expecting a sweep or simple series win with no push-back or adversity is asking a little too much. It's a decent-pretty good team that is now getting playoff Carey Price level of goaltending. Toronto needs to go for the jugular and not take anything, or period, lightly.

 

[bustaheims]

I agree that the regular-season numbers are not stellar, but when you look at the playoff numbers from the last 4 times he has been in the playoffs,  I think it shows that he can elevate:

Season            Team  GP    GS    W    L      T    OT    SA  GA    GAA    S    SV% SO      MIN
2014-2015        MTL 12 12 6 6 -- -- 352 28 2.23 324 .920 1 751:43
2016-2017        MTL 6 6 2 4 -- -- 179 12 1.86 167 .933 0 387:28
2019-2020 MTL 10 10 5 5 -- -- 282 18 1.78 264 .936 2 605:32
2020-2021 MTL 5 5 2 3 -- -- 160 13 2.66 147 .919 0 293:10

Small sample size, though. He can elevate his game for short stretches, but I don't see him being that guy for a full season anymore, and that will be another reason the Habs will struggle to compete for a playoff spot next season. They're lacking in high-end skill, their top D are aging - especially Weber - and Price has been below average 3 of the last 4 seasons (and Jake Allen struggled as a starter in St Louis - he's a very good backup, but that might be his ceiling). None of that adds up to being anything more an a also-ran. I don't think finishing around 12th in the conference next season is out of the question. Quite frankly, unless some significant talent is added this summer, I don't see how they'll finish higher than 10th.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Sgt. Stadenko would have called last night a Code 347.