Capitals @ Leafs - Jan. 7th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[GhostofPotvin29]

Smith got mostly Hms.  Polak got MotM.
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=2656.0

Yeah, he got votes in the MOTM thread. I'm wondering if it's solely because he scored a goal or if he actually looked good tonight.

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

Well they did, or at least better than they have looked.  Smith really didn't stand out other than that goal being in the right spot at the right time.

Are we still in the mode where we can only look at the score?  Sure they had defensive lapses, they were also unlucky.  If they play more like last night the rest of the way rather than the way they've been playing most nights they'll likely have more success than they've been having and be able to sustain that success without requiring a high SH% & SV% to win.

 

[bustaheims]

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

The team looked pretty good relative to how they looked in the weeks before. They weren't hemmed in their zone for long stretches. They didn't give up an excessive amount of Grade A chances. The score may have been lopsided, but the play on the ice wasn't. That's the most important thing for this team right now. It may not have seemed like a more spirited effort, but, it was still a significant improvement from where they were a week ago. Whether it's an isolated incident or the beginning of a trend remains to be seen.

 

[ZBBM]

Smith got mostly Hms.  Polak got MotM.
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=2656.0

Yeah, he got votes in the MOTM thread. I'm wondering if it's solely because he scored a goal or if he actually looked good tonight.

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

Well they did, or at least better than they have looked.  Smith really didn't stand out other than that goal being in the right spot at the right time.

Are we still in the mode where we can only look at the score?  Sure they had defensive lapses, they were also unlucky.  If they play more like last night the rest of the way rather than the way they've been playing most nights they'll likely have more success than they've been having and be able to sustain that success without requiring a high SH% & SV% to win.

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate.  If they play a better possession game then sure, they'll do better on average, but last nite I saw lots of lazy play (Polak nailed it in his pregame comments), missed assignments, not-great goaltending, and lack of puck support.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Smith got mostly Hms.  Polak got MotM.
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=2656.0

Yeah, he got votes in the MOTM thread. I'm wondering if it's solely because he scored a goal or if he actually looked good tonight.

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

Well they did, or at least better than they have looked.  Smith really didn't stand out other than that goal being in the right spot at the right time.

Are we still in the mode where we can only look at the score?  Sure they had defensive lapses, they were also unlucky.  If they play more like last night the rest of the way rather than the way they've been playing most nights they'll likely have more success than they've been having and be able to sustain that success without requiring a high SH% & SV% to win.

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate. 

So if they outshot a team 42-15 (hypothetically) but their goalie had an off-night and the other goalie played great, and say they lost 4-0 - you wouldn't be able to argue they deserved a better fate simply because it was a 4-goal difference?

Hockey has a lot of luck involved.  There's no harm in admitting it and admitting that the score won't always be reflective of the game.  Just like the Leafs won with some big scores while being outplayed this season.

 

[bustaheims]

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate.  If they play a better possession game then sure, they'll do better on average, but last nite I saw lots of lazy play (Polak nailed it in his pregame comments), missed assignments, not-great goaltending, and lack of puck support.

Firstly, neither of us quoted advanced stats, so, I'm not sure why you're going there. Secondly, yeah, even in a 4 goal game, you can go to stats to point out why things weren't as bad as the scoreboard said they were.  I'm going off what I saw with my own eyes. I saw the Leafs not running around in their own end nearly as much as they have recently. I saw them actually get a cycle going and having the control of the puck in the offensive end more. Were there still issues? Sure. It wasn't a perfectly played game. No one is saying it was. What it represented was potential improvement. They weren't dominated on the ice in the same way they were by Winnipeg on Saturday, or how they have been in countless other games of late. They faced an opportunistic Capitals team that took advantage of the fact the Bernier was having an off night.

 

[ZBBM]

Smith got mostly Hms.  Polak got MotM.
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=2656.0

Yeah, he got votes in the MOTM thread. I'm wondering if it's solely because he scored a goal or if he actually looked good tonight.

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

Well they did, or at least better than they have looked.  Smith really didn't stand out other than that goal being in the right spot at the right time.

Are we still in the mode where we can only look at the score?  Sure they had defensive lapses, they were also unlucky.  If they play more like last night the rest of the way rather than the way they've been playing most nights they'll likely have more success than they've been having and be able to sustain that success without requiring a high SH% & SV% to win.

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate. 

So if they outshot a team 42-15 (hypothetically) but their goalie had an off-night and the other goalie played great, and say they lost 4-0 - you wouldn't be able to argue they deserved a better fate simply because it was a 4-goal difference?

Hockey has a lot of luck involved.  There's no harm in admitting it and admitting that the score won't always be reflective of the game.  Just like the Leafs won with some big scores while being outplayed this season.

I'm not saying luck isn't involved.  I'm saying better possession stats don't capture many factors that can cause a team to lose by 4 goals, and those factors (mentioned above) mean that, to me, they didn't play all that well.

 

[ZBBM]

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate.  If they play a better possession game then sure, they'll do better on average, but last nite I saw lots of lazy play (Polak nailed it in his pregame comments), missed assignments, not-great goaltending, and lack of puck support.

Firstly, neither of us quoted advanced stats, so, I'm not sure why you're going there. Secondly, yeah, even in a 4 goal game, you can go to stats to point out why things weren't as bad as the scoreboard said they were.  I'm going off what I saw with my own eyes. I saw the Leafs not running around in their own end nearly as much as they have recently. I saw them actually get a cycle going and having the control of the puck in the offensive end more. Were there still issues? Sure. It wasn't a perfectly played game. No one is saying it was. What it represented was potential improvement. They weren't dominated on the ice in the same way they were by Winnipeg on Saturday, or how they have been in countless other games of late. They faced an opportunistic Capitals team that took advantage of the fact the Bernier was having an off night.

Sorry, I thought one of you quoted CF% or something like that.  I haven't learned all the abbreviations.

The positives you saw didn't outweigh the negatives I saw ? IMO of course.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Smith got mostly Hms.  Polak got MotM.
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=2656.0

Yeah, he got votes in the MOTM thread. I'm wondering if it's solely because he scored a goal or if he actually looked good tonight.

That, and he played hard too.  Neither of which applied to most everybody else.  That'll get you an HM in a lopsided 6-2 loss where, according to some, the team looked pretty good.

Well they did, or at least better than they have looked.  Smith really didn't stand out other than that goal being in the right spot at the right time.

Are we still in the mode where we can only look at the score?  Sure they had defensive lapses, they were also unlucky.  If they play more like last night the rest of the way rather than the way they've been playing most nights they'll likely have more success than they've been having and be able to sustain that success without requiring a high SH% & SV% to win.

Sorry guys, a 4-goal loss is not one where you can pull out advanced stats and say they deserved a better fate. 

So if they outshot a team 42-15 (hypothetically) but their goalie had an off-night and the other goalie played great, and say they lost 4-0 - you wouldn't be able to argue they deserved a better fate simply because it was a 4-goal difference?

Hockey has a lot of luck involved.  There's no harm in admitting it and admitting that the score won't always be reflective of the game.  Just like the Leafs won with some big scores while being outplayed this season.

I'm not saying luck isn't involved.  I'm saying better possession stats don't capture many factors that can cause a team to lose by 4 goals, and those factors (mentioned above) mean that, to me, they didn't play all that well.

But I would bet that if Bernier makes some of those saves or if the puck doesn't hit Franson's stick, you'd be singing a different tune about the game.  Defensive lapses tend to be remembered a lot more clearly when they result in goals against - at least 3 of the goals against last night were not as a result of defensive breakdowns.  Others were - and the Capitals scored where the Leafs didn't on Washington's breakdowns.

But it points to why advanced stats help flesh out a game - on the eye test only or by looking at the score you might think they were as bad as in Winnipeg when they were arguably the better team.  Most nights hopefully that will result in a better outcome.

 

[bustaheims]

The positives you saw didn't outweigh the negatives I saw ? IMO of course.

Well, it's been, you know, one game since Carlyle was fired, and, really, they've had one practice where Horachek really had the opportunity to come in prepared to coach to his system. The negatives aren't going to disappear overnight. The fact that there were already positives is encouraging.

 

[ZBBM]

But I would bet that if Bernier makes some of those saves or if the puck doesn't hit Franson's stick, you'd be singing a different tune about the game.  Defensive lapses tend to be remembered a lot more clearly when they result in goals against - at least 3 of the goals against last night were not as a result of defensive breakdowns.  Others were - and the Capitals scored where the Leafs didn't on Washington's breakdowns.

No, I wouldn't.  Even if Bernier saved the shorty, there was still Clarkson not taking the shooter.  There was the whole pack of Phil they showed at the first intermission.  Rielly doing basically nothing.  Etc.

 

[ZBBM]

The positives you saw didn't outweigh the negatives I saw ? IMO of course.

Well, it's been, you know, one game since Carlyle was fired, and, really, they've had one practice where Horachek really had the opportunity to come in prepared to coach to his system. The negatives aren't going to disappear overnight. The fact that there were already positives is encouraging.

Of course.  And nothing I said implied otherwise.

I actually have high hopes for Horachek.  I want him to make it hard for them to just anoint Babcock.

 

[Highlander]

Hey whatever or whomever works. I like Horacheck as well, straight shooter, no bullshit guy.  Hopefully they will respond to him.  Didn't like Rielly comments on his system, said it will make for boring hockey, the 5 guys in each zone system Horacheck is promoting. We want wins, not whirlwind winning streaks followed by huge crashes.  Sort of the manic/depressive nature of the team.  So lets hope everyone buys in and the ones that don't (there are no intouchables here) should be moved out and traded for equal value for people that can actually listen and learn.

 

[TML fan]

The biggest difference I noticed in the Leafs' play last night was their breakouts. They were still sloppy but for the most part players were closer together and actually providing some decent outlets. The D is really slow advancing the puck at times which creates huge gaps but I think that's a byproduct of Randy's system where they were always looking for that stretch pass. It's going to take a while to shake that. The wingers were staying higher in the zone and there was better puck support than I had ever seen under Carlyle. I found the pace of the game to be a lot faster because the Leafs were spending less time hemmed in their own end.

I wish they'd be more aggressive on the puck and challenge guys to make plays. I find this team incredibly soft and they tend to go for stick checks more than playing the body. It's quite irritating. They're still giving up their blue line too easily as well. Far too easy to play against.

That said, I have hope that those things will slowly change under the new coach. The bottom line is, a change has been made at the top and now it's on the players to buy in or ship out.