Captain Phaneuf

[GhostofPotvin29]

or tries to play with a broken stick (Leafs were extremely lucky Phaneuf did not get a penalty for that).

When he tries to do too much that is when a shot breaks his stick unbeknownst to him?  It's instinct to clear the puck, the puck hit his stick and broke it, he didn't feel it happen, and he dropped it after he saw.  He's not the first player this has happened to (sticks are crazy light now, it's sometimes hard to tell in heat of the moment if you're not taking a shot when it happens) and won't be the last, but it's hardly as a result of trying to do too much.

Remember how many games Raycrap played when he broke the team record for most wins in a season by a Leaf goalie?  Just because he played a lot of games that season, and got a lot of wins did not mean he was a great goalie.  Besides, most of those wins were due to the Leafs offense and little to do with Raycraps stellar play while most of the Leafs losses that season were due to defensive and goalie miscues.  Just because Phaneuf is playing almost half of each game, and just because he is wearing the C, does not mean he is the best Leafs d-man.

Except with Raycroft you could back up his subpar play with more than "he tries to do too much", or "he's bad in our end" types of comments that are by their nature subjective an will differ depending on the person.  I mean, you're commenting in one paragraph about how good the Leafs are defensively this season, while at the same time criticizing the player who plays the most and plays the toughest minutes (some of the toughest of all D in the league). 

Raycroft had an .894 SV% that season, 36th among those who qualified for NHL's "save % leader" stat.  Lots and lots of people could point to Raycroft's brutal SV% and see that the team made up for his goaltending to get him that many wins.

Only 1 other defenseman in the league has started a lower % of shifts at even-strength (off a face-off) in the offensive zone (Phaneuf starts just 37.5% of his shifts there), and yet he is still in the top 30 in defenseman scoring.  He's used in all situations, doesn't take a lot of penalties, plays all the toughest minutes defensively, and still produces top 30 offensively (top 10 last season starting 50% in the offensive zone).

I'm sure I'll get more sarcastic Phaneuf comments directed at me in the GDT's going forward, but I'm doing everything I can to explain it using facts.  I don't think he's perfect, I don't think any player is perfect, but I think he's been very good for the Leafs.

 

[dappleganger]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

 

[Boston Leaf]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

 

[OldTimeHockey]

or tries to play with a broken stick (Leafs were extremely lucky Phaneuf did not get a penalty for that).

When he tries to do too much that is when a shot breaks his stick unbeknownst to him?  It's instinct to clear the puck, the puck hit his stick and broke it, he didn't feel it happen, and he dropped it after he saw.  He's not the first player this has happened to (sticks are crazy light now, it's sometimes hard to tell in heat of the moment if you're not taking a shot when it happens) and won't be the last, but it's hardly as a result of trying to do too much.

Remember how many games Raycrap played when he broke the team record for most wins in a season by a Leaf goalie?  Just because he played a lot of games that season, and got a lot of wins did not mean he was a great goalie.  Besides, most of those wins were due to the Leafs offense and little to do with Raycraps stellar play while most of the Leafs losses that season were due to defensive and goalie miscues.  Just because Phaneuf is playing almost half of each game, and just because he is wearing the C, does not mean he is the best Leafs d-man.

Except with Raycroft you could back up his subpar play with more than "he tries to do too much", or "he's bad in our end" types of comments that are by their nature subjective an will differ depending on the person.  I mean, you're commenting in one paragraph about how good the Leafs are defensively this season, while at the same time criticizing the player who plays the most and plays the toughest minutes (some of the toughest of all D in the league). 

I think he compliments the defensive system as a whole.

Only 1 other defenseman in the league has started a lower % of shifts at even-strength (off a face-off) in the offensive zone (Phaneuf starts just 37.5% of his shifts there), and yet he is still in the top 30 in defenseman scoring.  He's used in all situations, doesn't take a lot of penalties, plays all the toughest minutes defensively, and still produces top 30 offensively (top 10 last season starting 50% in the offensive zone).

I think if you can throw around that face off stat, then the +/- stat should be in play also.

The stat shows a lot of faceoffs in the defensive/neutral zone, but tells no story of where it goes from there.

If the GAA is down, shouldn't Dion's +/- go down?

 

[Kin]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

But using that logic, what's the more relevant thing to consider? The 20 games the Leafs have played this season where they've had a good GAA or the several hundred games previous where Phaneuf was playing a ton of minutes and they had one of the very worst GAA in the league? I mean, if that follows, then hasn't Dion Phaneuf been one of the very worst defensemen in the entire league the last few years?

I just don't think it works like that. There are so many factors that go into the amount of goals a team gives up that trying to attribute a big chunk of it to just Phaneuf's play seems to minimize the far more important factors like goaltending, team defense and on and on. If you look back throughout the years you can find lots of teams with so-so #1's near the top of GAA and really good ones in the middle of the pack.

 

[PG]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

Chara has not had less than 44 points over the last 5 seasons and is a +122 over that span. He is the "golden boy" for a reason. Oh, and he has a Cup.

Of course he makes mistakes, but when you are affecting the play at both ends like he does, they are overlooked. If Phaneuf was putting up numbers like that, I couldn't care less if he scored in his own net every once in a while.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think if you can throw around that face off stat, then the +/- stat should be in play also.

The stat shows a lot of faceoffs in the defensive/neutral zone, but tells no story of where it goes from there.

If the GAA is down, shouldn't Dion's +/- go down?

But that's why I am talking about the zone starts, to help put a stat like +/- in context.  A +/- number on its own can look good or bad, but if you look past it you can start to see how a stat like that can be impacted by the way the player is utilized.  If a player starts most of their shifts in the offensive zone, they have a better chance of getting more offensive chances and being on the ice for more goals for, and vice versa if you're always starting most of your shifts in your own end.  It's not a perfect stat by any stretch, but I think it is much better than something like +/- on it's own.

These are a couple of explanations of the impacts it can have on things like +/- (and there are some linked to parts within that text you can get from the article if you wish to read more):

There's no question that this is important: a lost defensive zone faceoff costs a team approximately 0.25 shots on goal. For a guy like Kurt Sauer, who was out for 239 more defensive zone draws than offensive ones last year, that's incredibly costly - perhaps 3 to 5 goals versus an even split. Sauer, who was on the ice for 39 goals for at 5v5 and 43 goals against last year, could be a +1 instead of a -4. With six goals corresponding to approximately one win, that has a huge impact on a defenseman's apparent value. Indeed, the correlation between which zone a player starts in and the number of shots for and against his team while he's on the ice are very highly-correlated - Tyler Dellow again brings us the analysis of Corsi Number vs Zone Starts for defensemen.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2009/10/8/1077082/frequently-asked-questions-4-zone

It should be clear that defensive zone faceoffs represent a substantial defensive risk. Indeed, after winning a defensive zone draw, your team will allow more shots on goal in the next 30 seconds than if you had lost a faceoff in the neutral zone.

[click link to see table/graph]

It's hard to downplay what happens here. After you lose a faceoff in the neutral zone, you have time to set up defensively and you don't give up a particularly large number of good scoring opportunities. However, when you lose a faceoff in your own end, opponent shots on goal go up so quickly that it's as though you gave the other team a 10-15 second power-play. For several seconds, the rate of shots allowed is as high as it is on a 5-on-3. The prospect of this level of defensive disadvantage, particularly late in a one-goal game, must give coaches nightmares.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=239

This is not to absolve him of any mistakes he makes, because he does (and will continue to) make mistakes.  However, like I said above, I think he's performed very well in the role Carlyle has given him this season.

 

[rdowdall]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

Chara has not had less than 44 points over the last 5 seasons and is a +122 over that span. He is the "golden boy" for a reason. Oh, and he has a Cup.

Of course he makes mistakes, but when you are affecting the play at both ends like he does, they are overlooked. If Phaneuf was putting up numbers like that, I couldn't care less if he scored in his own net every once in a while.

Bryan McCabe was putting numbers like that up, and people gave him a hard time.

 

[Boston Leaf]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

Chara has not had less than 44 points over the last 5 seasons and is a +122 over that span. He is the "golden boy" for a reason. Oh, and he has a Cup.

Of course he makes mistakes, but when you are affecting the play at both ends like he does, they are overlooked. If Phaneuf was putting up numbers like that, I couldn't care less if he scored in his own net every once in a while.

I really didn't want to turn this into a Chara vs Dion thing.. But Chara has played with a much better team who is all about Team D and had world class goaltending. Until this year the leafs Team D/goaltending has been atrociuos...I just feel Dion gets a bum rap quite a bit. He absolutley makes mistakes. But he plays such big minutes agianst the top players in league. Without him I think we would suffer big time..

 

[Kin]

Until this year the leafs Team D/goaltending has been atrociuos...

Right, so you think the team's GAA has much more to do with team D/goaltending then the play of their #1 defenseman. So it's entirely possible to have a good GAA and a sub-par guy playing a ton of minutes.

 

[Boston Leaf]

Until this year the leafs Team D/goaltending has been atrociuos...

Right, so you think the team's GAA has much more to do with team D/goaltending then the play of their #1 defenseman. So it's entirely possible to have a good GAA and a sub-par guy playing a ton of minutes.

Of course it has to do with team D/goaltending.. I just feel if Dion wasn't there I think it is "possible" that the GAA might not be quite as good. If Dion wans't there and Komi/Liles got in and someone else grabbed big minutes against the elite.. I think it possible our numbers would suffer..

 

[PG]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

Chara has not had less than 44 points over the last 5 seasons and is a +122 over that span. He is the "golden boy" for a reason. Oh, and he has a Cup.

Of course he makes mistakes, but when you are affecting the play at both ends like he does, they are overlooked. If Phaneuf was putting up numbers like that, I couldn't care less if he scored in his own net every once in a while.

I really didn't want to turn this into a Chara vs Dion thing.. But Chara has played with a much better team who is all about Team D and had world class goaltending. Until this year the leafs Team D/goaltending has been atrociuos...I just feel Dion gets a bum rap quite a bit. He absolutley makes mistakes. But he plays such big minutes agianst the top players in league. Without him I think we would suffer big time..

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

 

[Boston Leaf]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

I beleive he does. Ever see how many gaffs in a game Zdeno Chara makes? But he is the goldne boy when it comes to D men. If he was a Leaf he'd be crucified as well.. And I am not saying Phaneuf and Chara are equal

Chara has not had less than 44 points over the last 5 seasons and is a +122 over that span. He is the "golden boy" for a reason. Oh, and he has a Cup.

Of course he makes mistakes, but when you are affecting the play at both ends like he does, they are overlooked. If Phaneuf was putting up numbers like that, I couldn't care less if he scored in his own net every once in a while.

I really didn't want to turn this into a Chara vs Dion thing.. But Chara has played with a much better team who is all about Team D and had world class goaltending. Until this year the leafs Team D/goaltending has been atrociuos...I just feel Dion gets a bum rap quite a bit. He absolutley makes mistakes. But he plays such big minutes agianst the top players in league. Without him I think we would suffer big time..

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

I dont think you are trying to be a smart ass.. Of course he is a big part of the team so therefore contributes to team D. But when you don't have co-operation from the forwards helping out and the goalie making saves it will of course make the guy who is playing the most minutes look worse. Im not trying to paint him as a Norris trophy winner but he is far from the Leafs version of Larry Murphy. If Dion played with Boston the last 5 years he would have a cup and a great +/- as well

 

[Kin]

Of course it has to do with team D/goaltending.. I just feel if Dion wasn't there I think it is "possible" that the GAA might not be quite as good. If Dion wans't there and Komi/Liles got in and someone else grabbed big minutes against the elite.. I think it possible our numbers would suffer..

I think that's probably true but I don't think there's anyone who is saying that Phaneuf is the worst defender on the team or should be in the pressbox. It's not, or at least I haven't seen it, simply about comparing him to the other guys on the team.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

Obviously everyone plays a part in it, but here's a look at how poorly the Leafs goaltending was, and how much of an impact that can have on a player's stats.

This article shows that Kessel (who was a -8 at the time) was getting an On-Ice SV% of .893 from Leafs goaltenders.  They adjusted it for league average goaltending (so not even for great goaltending), and his adjusted +/- would have come out to be +18.

Just like this season, a number of players (Phaneuf included) are benefitting from some of the league's best SV%, the last couple seasons they've also grappled with some of the worst.  It makes it difficult to point to things like +/- anyways.

 

[Leaflifer]

The Leafs have a team GA/G of 2.30.

Dion is averaging over 26 minutes a game. He deserves some credit for that doesn't he or at least proves he's not that much of a detriment to the team.

But using that logic, what's the more relevant thing to consider? The 20 games the Leafs have played this season where they've had a good GAA or the several hundred games previous where Phaneuf was playing a ton of minutes and they had one of the very worst GAA in the league? I mean, if that follows, then hasn't Dion Phaneuf been one of the very worst defensemen in the entire league the last few years?

I just don't think it works like that. There are so many factors that go into the amount of goals a team gives up that trying to attribute a big chunk of it to just Phaneuf's play seems to minimize the far more important factors like goaltending, team defense and on and on. If you look back throughout the years you can find lots of teams with so-so #1's near the top of GAA and really good ones in the middle of the pack.

This is true. I mean, statistically I could probably make a case that Dion and my goldfish are the same person.

Even Raycroft's save %. The Leafs were giving up tons of quality scoring chances as opposed to keeping shots to the outside and clearing rebounds, which is what Scrivens is getting from the Leafs.

Stats are only useful in a vary narrow perspective. Once we develop quantum computing I will be all in.

 

[Kin]

If Dion played with Boston the last 5 years he would have a cup and a great +/- as well

But, and I apologize but I'm just trying to wrap my head around the concept here, but if the argument is that +/- is inextricably linked to the quality of team defense and goaltending on a team and that explains the discrepancy between, say, Chara and Phaneuf then how come, right now, with the Leafs getting comparable goaltending to the Bruins and with a fairly comparable goal differential Chara is a +7 and Phaneuf is a -6?

 

[PG]

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

Obviously everyone plays a part in it, but here's a look at how poorly the Leafs goaltending was, and how much of an impact that can have on a player's stats.

This article shows that Kessel (who was a -8 at the time) was getting an On-Ice SV% of .893 from Leafs goaltenders.  They adjusted it for league average goaltending (so not even for great goaltending), and his adjusted +/- would have come out to be +18.

Just like this season, a number of players (Phaneuf included) are benefitting from some of the league's best SV%, the last couple seasons they've also grappled with some of the worst.  It makes it difficult to point to things like +/- anyways.

I'm not crazy about On Ice SV% because it more or less implies the goalie's play is a determinant on the player's stats and not the other way around. Does this factor in how many goals may have been as a direct result of a Kessel turnover, or not coming back and taking his man?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

Obviously everyone plays a part in it, but here's a look at how poorly the Leafs goaltending was, and how much of an impact that can have on a player's stats.

This article shows that Kessel (who was a -8 at the time) was getting an On-Ice SV% of .893 from Leafs goaltenders.  They adjusted it for league average goaltending (so not even for great goaltending), and his adjusted +/- would have come out to be +18.

Just like this season, a number of players (Phaneuf included) are benefitting from some of the league's best SV%, the last couple seasons they've also grappled with some of the worst.  It makes it difficult to point to things like +/- anyways.

Man, imagine how bad Phaneuf's +/- would be without the strong team d and goaltending 

 

[nutman]

I'm not trying to be a smart ass but it sounds like you are saying the previous 2+ seasons of the team's horrible defensive play had little to do with Phaneuf and more to do with goaltending.

He's led the team in icetime his entire time with the team.....

Obviously everyone plays a part in it, but here's a look at how poorly the Leafs goaltending was, and how much of an impact that can have on a player's stats.

This article shows that Kessel (who was a -8 at the time) was getting an On-Ice SV% of .893 from Leafs goaltenders.  They adjusted it for league average goaltending (so not even for great goaltending), and his adjusted +/- would have come out to be +18.

Just like this season, a number of players (Phaneuf included) are benefitting from some of the league's best SV%, the last couple seasons they've also grappled with some of the worst.  It makes it difficult to point to things like +/- anyways.

Man, imagine how bad Phaneuf's +/- would be without the strong team d and goaltending 

I dont put to much into +/- . I dont think it tells the true worth of all players.