Compete level!

[bustaheims]

Regardless of the reasoning though, firing the coach doesn't preclude change the roster too.  Personally I would love to see what a different set of eyes could do with the team before accepting another 2-4 years of bottom feeding non-playoff hockey rebuild.  It might be coming either way, but I would really like to see one last shot with this core to see if someone can get them playing.

Exactly. I don't think anyone is suggesting or has every really suggested that firing the coach is the cure-all. It's just the first step in turning things around and really identifying the areas of issue on the roster and just how bad they really are. With the team as it is, with every line seemingly having the same issues - and those issues having being present since the beginning of Carlyle's tenure - it's hard to really separate how much of it is systems and how much of it is talent.

 

[L K]

They got themselves analytics, 57 layers of management, 3 new assistant coaches, got rid of the goons... and they're worse than last year. Maybe Carlyle has to go, but its the core players that are rotten in this group.

The analytics and the new management group are about long-term impact. The roster was basically set by the time they were brought aboard, so, you were going to see much impact from them this season. As for the assistant coaches, they still have to follow the head coach's lead. As they say, the fish rots from the head. They really aren't any worse than last season, they're just a little less successful.

I think the analytics could have an effect on the lineup down the road, but the problem is that using advanced stats for possession numbers with small sample sizes is just as short-sighted as taking preseason scoring numbers or a 5 game period of solid games from a rookie defenseman and attributing them to permanent roster moves.

I really think the lines need to be revamped though.  Daniel Winnik has no business being on the 2nd line.  He's a 3rd/4th liner and watching him play in the offensive zone is painful.  He skates with his head down, which is awful to pair with a guy like Kadri who might try and make a deke or two at the blueline to create some space.  He isn't a good passer and he doesn't really crash the net.  Not that Winnik is the only reason that line isn't scoring but since Kozun went down in the New York game the line hasn't produced anything and the two scoring plays that Kadri was in on had other guys on the ice.

Honestly I think either Komarov or Clarkson would be a much better fit on the line if Carlyle isn't going to break up the 1st line.  I do find it funny that it is always Kadri's line who needs an anchor on it for "defensive purposes" when it is the Kessel line that is consistently the worst at actually keeping the puck out of their own zone.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Try a new coach. His fault or not he's had long enough to fix the same issues.

Yeah. If nothing else, it's pretty clear that he has no idea how to motivate this group.

At some point these grown men need to take a little responsibility for their lack of motivation.

 

[bustaheims]

At some point these grown men need to take a little responsibility for their lack of motivation.

Just like, at some point, the grown man behind the bench has to take some responsibility for his lack of success, the failure of his strategies and his outmoded approach. Everyone in the organization bears some responsibility for their collective failure.

 

[ZBBM]

At some point these grown men need to take a little responsibility for their lack of motivation.

Just like, at some point, the grown man behind the bench has to take some responsibility for his lack of success, the failure of his strategies and his outmoded approach. Everyone in the organization bears some responsibility for their collective failure.

I wonder when Shanahan is going to take control.  By which I mean get rid of both the coach and the GM.  Nonis got his job by default and has done nothing to warrant being kept on.  We all used to complain that JFJ was a disaster.  His successors have been little better.

Right now Shanahan is still operating with leftovers from Burke in the key positions off and on ice.  It's not working, and it's never going to.  He may give it a few more weeks, but if they are still floundering around then he'll push the plunger down on the old TNT.

 

[skrackle]

The Leafs are beginning to look like they can compete.

For McDavid.

I hope they win that one.

 

[AvroArrow]

I seriously hope this management group guts this team, gets as many high picks as they possibly can, and grab as much talent as they possibly can in this draft.  As it is, it's going nowhere.

 

[skrackle]

I seriously hope this management group guts this team, gets as many high picks as they possibly can, and grab as much talent as they possibly can in this draft.  As it is, it's going nowhere.

Nothing else makes any sense. But when do the Leafs ever make sense?

I'd say not for quite some time time now. They operate in a make-believe bubble that continues to be supported by their financial success. There is a short-sighted impatience that has long run through the organization. The Leafs, some 10 years on, have not adjusted to the reality of the salary cap. There is a season to season shuffling of the cards that shows no improvement and worse, no vision.

Maybe Shanahan is the guy who will change things. I haven't yet formed an opinion on where he's taking the Leafs. But hey, I'm nothing if not patient.

 

[rdowdall]

I seriously hope this management group guts this team, gets as many high picks as they possibly can, and grab as much talent as they possibly can in this draft.  As it is, it's going nowhere.

I understand what you are saying.  I would like to point out that this approach has not worked for Edmonton.

What I think you want to say is "I seriously hope this management group starts to make the right decisions going forward and therefore builds a team that can compete for a cup."

 

[Leaflifer]

Perennial bottom feeders, that's what the Leafs have become.

I'm not sold on the analytics being that useful a tool. Sure, last year the math-heads were saying the Leafs will implode...and they were right. However, a lot of people (some here) including myself could see the Leafs were not winning convincingly. They were showing up for 10, 15 minutes a night, score a few goals and then it was goaltending the rest of the way.

No math needed whatsoever, just a clue about the game.

Maybe useful in scouting a player you've never watched play more than a game or two.

I'm still going to stick with my guns on the leadership thing. It's the big problem.

 

[Kin]

I understand what you are saying.  I would like to point out that this approach has not worked for Edmonton.

What I think you want to say is "I seriously hope this management group starts to make the right decisions going forward and therefore builds a team that can compete for a cup."

I'm a broken record on this point but "it hasn't worked in Edmonton" is not a counter-point to the idea that the team needs to load up on high draft picks. There is no way to build a winning team that is fool-proof and what has sunk the Oilers isn't the tactics, it's the fools. Until you can present a method of building a team that is guaranteed to succeed, the one with the most successes behind it is not undercut by an outlier like Edmonton.

Nobody is arguing that simply being bad leads to being good. But being bad gives you the best opportunity to become good. A team still needs to make smart decisions and one of those decisions is that it's better to be at the bottom of the league than the middle.

 

[Newfoundlandleaf]

I was a Carlyle fan...still don't think he's a bad coach...but when you have issues getting your team to compete, that is not fixable....Boudreau wore out his welcome in Washington, but, has had success in Anaheim, definitely at the beginning...when a coach is tuned out, they are tuned out...shelf life seems to be around 4 years, except for some outliers...with the leafs and a lot of NHL teams...

 

[TML fan]

I understand what you are saying.  I would like to point out that this approach has not worked for Edmonton.

What I think you want to say is "I seriously hope this management group starts to make the right decisions going forward and therefore builds a team that can compete for a cup."

I'm a broken record on this point but "it hasn't worked in Edmonton" is not a counter-point to the idea that the team needs to load up on high draft picks. There is no way to build a winning team that is fool-proof and what has sunk the Oilers isn't the tactics, it's the fools. Until you can present a method of building a team that is guaranteed to succeed, the one with the most successes behind it is not undercut by an outlier like Edmonton.

Nobody is arguing that simply being bad leads to being good. But being bad gives you the best opportunity to become good. A team still needs to make smart decisions and one of those decisions is that it's better to be at the bottom of the league than the middle.

Management has been incompetent at everything else, so I doubt they'd be any better at this. That said, it's the only thing they haven't tried yet...

 

[Frank E]

I understand what you are saying.  I would like to point out that this approach has not worked for Edmonton.

What I think you want to say is "I seriously hope this management group starts to make the right decisions going forward and therefore builds a team that can compete for a cup."

I'm a broken record on this point but "it hasn't worked in Edmonton" is not a counter-point to the idea that the team needs to load up on high draft picks. There is no way to build a winning team that is fool-proof and what has sunk the Oilers isn't the tactics, it's the fools. Until you can present a method of building a team that is guaranteed to succeed, the one with the most successes behind it is not undercut by an outlier like Edmonton.

Nobody is arguing that simply being bad leads to being good. But being bad gives you the best opportunity to become good. A team still needs to make smart decisions and one of those decisions is that it's better to be at the bottom of the league than the middle.

Some people point to Edmonton as the exception to the rebuilding through the draft rule.  I just haven't heard a good argument on which decisions were the bad ones.

They drafted the consensus picks, we'll see if Nurse and Yakupov pan out.  They got Shultz as a FA.  They haven't been afraid to make substantial changes in coaching and goaltending when things haven't worked out.  They've rolled the dice a bit too, sure, but at least they're not sitting on their hands.

I don't know, I'm not sold on them being the picture of a failed rebuild just yet.  If anything, patience seems to be an issue there too...it's not exactly a haven for UFAs. 

 

[L K]

I think for me the problem isn't so much that they drafted poorly in the first round but that their scouting system sucks and their 2nd-7th round picks aren't a shining light of positivity.

That combined with their dofficulty in getting good free agents makes their development a struggle. 

 

[Newfoundlandleaf]

good interview with Darren Dreger this morning...

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/dreger-carlyle-safe-for-now-1.116995

 

[herman]

Edmonton's 'method' hasn't worked because there hasn't been enough support for their highly touted draft picks. Ideally, those draft picks shouldn't see NHL action until they've seasoned for a year or two in the AHL playing against larger, faster, more competitive professionals.

The Leafs have, simply put, been mismanaged for too long for one year of better decisions to make an immediate difference. Our prospect cupboard is gradually getting filled again after emptying it out going for Cup-runs in the Quinn years. The years without a salary cap meant the Leafs management never really learned how to grow and develop their own talent properly, and the first few critical years after the salary cap came into effect were completely misread as we continued to try to buy our way into contention with Big and Slow in a new era of Fast.

The right decisions are finally being made now - the focus on proper development; long-term improvements instead of band-aid fixes; establishing a playing philosophy/style that is more talent-independent; studying and adapting to the metagame (analytics); identifying and drafting for game-breaking talent rather than patching NHL-team holes. However, this does mean our current on-ice success is in "do the best with what you have" mode while we strengthen our foundation. The retention of Nonis and Carlyle highlights this treading water tactic. They're scapegoats until we have all the correct pieces developed and in place.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I understand what you are saying.  I would like to point out that this approach has not worked for Edmonton.

What I think you want to say is "I seriously hope this management group starts to make the right decisions going forward and therefore builds a team that can compete for a cup."

I'm a broken record on this point but "it hasn't worked in Edmonton" is not a counter-point to the idea that the team needs to load up on high draft picks. There is no way to build a winning team that is fool-proof and what has sunk the Oilers isn't the tactics, it's the fools. Until you can present a method of building a team that is guaranteed to succeed, the one with the most successes behind it is not undercut by an outlier like Edmonton.

Nobody is arguing that simply being bad leads to being good. But being bad gives you the best opportunity to become good. A team still needs to make smart decisions and one of those decisions is that it's better to be at the bottom of the league than the middle.

Some people point to Edmonton as the exception to the rebuilding through the draft rule.  I just haven't heard a good argument on which decisions were the bad ones.

They drafted the consensus picks, we'll see if Nurse and Yakupov pan out.  They got Shultz as a FA.  They haven't been afraid to make substantial changes in coaching and goaltending when things haven't worked out.  They've rolled the dice a bit too, sure, but at least they're not sitting on their hands.

I don't know, I'm not sold on them being the picture of a failed rebuild just yet.  If anything, patience seems to be an issue there too...it's not exactly a haven for UFAs.

The guys in Edmonton are still young. The rebuild part of building a cup contender may not be the problem there. Edmonton may just need a couple veterans to glue the team together.

It's not a failure until the 1st rounders retire or are traded and Edmonton rebuilds in a different way. Although it's safe to say things aren't looking good at this point, but does that mean Edmonton isn't going to win a cup with RNH, Eberle, Yakupov, etc... as their core.

 

[Kin]

I just haven't heard a good argument on which decisions were the bad ones.

Well, I guess it's hard for me to reconcile that with how you listed it as a positive that they were willing to make changes when "things didn't work out" without sort of then by default admitting that a lot of their decisions didn't work out. I don't think you get it both ways there. You can't on the one hand think it made a ton of sense to hire and fire someone like Krueger after a year and then not come to the conclusion that hiring Krueger was a good decision to begin with.

Or, like LK says, look at their drafting outside of the top 5. Heck, compare who they've taken outside of the first round over the last ten years to the Leafs in the same time span and then remember that the Leafs are nowhere close to being the gold standard in terms of drafting and development.

 

[Kin]

That combined with their dofficulty in getting good free agents makes their development a struggle.

Well, but it's their difficulty in attracting FA's, and let's not forget that they were widely reported as being the team that offered Clarkson more money than the Leafs, that makes it a bogus comparison to begin with. If the Leafs ever committed to a legitimate rebuilding process they wouldn't be doing it on a shoestring budget and without the ability to add veteran pieces when they needed to. The Leafs are Coca-Cola, the Oilers are a Lemonade stand.

But even with all that said, if we accept the premise that the Oilers are a worst case scenario...who wouldn't trade our roster for theirs?