Contracts for the Big-3

[Coco-puffs]

So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.

I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't buy the NBA players taking less money. Taking $26m per year instead of $32m for a chance to win doesn't seem like much of a concession to me, even though it is millions of dollars. Take into consideration their $10m+ yearly shoe endorsements, NBA players can make in one year, what a fortunate NHL'er can make in a career.

So Nylander taking 6.75M per year instead of 7.5M per year is the end of the world for him?  Those NBA players are making a 6M PER YEAR concession.  Nylander would be taking a 6M TOTAL concesssion.  And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

 

[cabber24]

So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.

I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't buy the NBA players taking less money. Taking $26m per year instead of $32m for a chance to win doesn't seem like much of a concession to me, even though it is millions of dollars. Take into consideration their $10m+ yearly shoe endorsements, NBA players can make in one year, what a fortunate NHL'er can make in a career.

$6M is a lot of money and it goes a long way to bringing in support players. Less is less.

 

[dappleganger]

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts.

It's very well known though that their "discounts" were only able to happen because of Tampa's tax situation. They're still essentially getting paid market value after tax.

I think this has been overstated a bit. A baseline for someone making $10m per year, the difference between a tax free state like Florida, and Michigan, which has a state tax, ends up being about $500k a year. Of course this changes from state to state, California would be about $1.4m less after state tax. (California is by far the worse) 

I think I'd rather go for Canada and take the current 30% bump in converting US to Canadian funds. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.

 

[Kin]

And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.

Exactly. A fair argument can be made that a NBA player taking less, even millionsless, to win is making a move that will benefit them financially in the long-term. There isn't that sort of endorsement money in hockey. Even 750k less over a max deal is likely to be 6 million that player never sees again, regardless of how many cups they win.

 

[Kin]

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't know about "many". Some of their players signed deals that were team friendly because they signed before the cap exploded or before they really came into their own as all-stars but Steph Curry just signed for the maximum. They certainly didn't use Durant's deal to get Curry to take a discount and Curry pretty clearly didn't feel obligated to do so.

Really the only guy to do what you're describing of any real significance is Kevin Durant and even there you're talking about a pretty massive difference. Durant signed with a team coming off a record setting season who'd just been to game 7 of the finals and had won a title in the previous year. The pitch to Durant wasn't "If you sign at a discount, we can build something great" but rather "We're already great, with you we can be greater".

The Leafs can't make that pitch to any of the guys they're trying to sign yet. Not just because they haven't achieved that level of success but because the future for the Leafs is far more uncertain. Even if the Leafs signed everyone at fairly team-friendly deals they'd still probably not be anyone's choice to come out of their own division, let alone be runaway favourites to win a title.

 

[hockeyfan1]

This just in about Nylander:  Interview...

Original article link (translated below):
https://www.aftonbladet.se/a/6nRbqL

Nylander remains in Stockholm: "Clearly you want to play"
William Nylander trains alone at Liding?

Tonight, Toronto Maple Leaf's home premiere against Montreal had 19,589 spectators in a packed Scotiabank Arena.

The NHL season is running.

A few hours later, the team's successive William Nylander trains alone in a deserted and pale plastic tent on Liding?.

"Obviously you are looking forward to playing," he says.

It's just him, skater coach Jocke Ahlgren and contractless 29-year-old Johan Lorraine on the ice, when William rubs on his first ice pass this day. So far from the glamor of NHL it's possible to come.
"But there is no danger. And I have to keep fit when everything is done, he says.
"I'm a professional athlete and just one product in general. The only thing I can check now is that I'm in the best possible form on the day everything gets settled.
And when will it be?
"Right now, I do not know more than all the rest of you. I have not received any message and have no contact with Toronto. It's my agent who takes care of everything.

Lose hundreds of thousands of kronor
The difference today is that wages began to be sent to NHL, where players have only paid during the 186 days the basic series is in progress.
According to hockey reporter Frank Seravalli on the Canadian TV channel TSN, William Nylander loses between 20,000 to 45,000 dollars a day as long as he is contractless. This corresponds to between 180,000 and 405,000 Swedish kronor a day, depending on the size of a future contract. Huge money for a 22 year old.
The Nylander  Counter is running. William Nylander loses anywhere from $ 20,000 to upwards or $ 45,000 a day f ... https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem
The Nylander  Counter is running. William Nylander loses anywhere from $ 20,000 to upwards or $ 45,000 a day f ... https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem
- Yes, it is clear that there is a lot of money, but in the end I have to take care of myself and do it myself and my agent thinks is right. Especially if it's about several years to come. I have to think long-term. It's my own future it's about.

William Nylander is sitting in the ice-cold plastic tent and replacing the replacement box. It's fast, because he's heading for the next training. A heavy physical pass.
In front of him stands the blue trunk he brought home from Toronto last spring, as a sign of where he still belongs and the club that owns his rights. And he is training in a white Toronto shirt.

Did you see the premiere of Montreal?
- No, but I saw highlights from the match in the morning. These were great goals. I want to play, but now it's the way it is. But I want to stay in Toronto.

Toronto Stanley Cup favorites
It's understandable with the effort the big club made in recent years. Many experts see Maple Leafs as favorite to the Stanley Cup title this season in a team of stars and with coach Mike Babcock in the booth. That would be the first time in 51 years. Last Toronto won the Stanley Cup in 1967 and the whole town would explode if it happened again.
"But they miss a star," says ice trainer Jocke Ahlgren, when he and William wander away from their parked cars to go to the day's physical pass.
Yes, William can only wait right now, but he has read about other Swedes who have been in the same situation and have been waiting for their new contract a good deal in the season.
"Yes, both Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm were in the same position this year. I do not know exactly how long they should wait.
That time it lasted until October 14th before fresh World Championship hero Rickard Rakell crossed a new six-year contract with Anaheim Ducks.
Back Hampus Lindholm had to wait until October 27, before his new six-year contract with the same Anaheim became clear. In both cases two years ago.
Now we are writing on October 4th and William Nylander hopes for the same happy end.
Otherwise, then? Can there be games in Europe while you wait?
"I have not thought about it, but at the moment, I only have the focus to keep me prepared on the day everything gets clear. I just drive on and let's see what's happening.

Original story link:
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2018/10/04/i-have-to-take-care-of-myself-nylander-opens-up-as-contract-impasse-with-maple-leafs-continues.html

 

[Zee]

It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/1047893276697579520

I really appreciate that anytime Dreger or Friedman talk about these negotiations they always add at the end: "but remember, we don't actually know what we're talking about here".

 

[ZBBM]

https://twitter.com/NicholsOnHockey/status/1047893276697579520

I really appreciate that anytime Dreger or Friedman talk about these negotiations they always add at the end: "but remember, we don't actually know what we're talking about here".

*I'd* sure like to get paid for talking out of my ass.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also at this point it's pretty safe to assume that if anything DOES start getting leaked to the media, it's coming from the Leafs camp to put pressure on Nylander.

 

[Kaberle15]

It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal.

I remember that long time ago, when Kaberle's 1st contract was up, he held out, started to play in the Czech Republic until he called his agent and told him to get it done. Was about 20 days or so after the season started.

 

[Zee]

It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal.

I remember that long time ago, when Kaberle's 1st contract was up, he held out, started to play in the Czech Republic until he called his agent and told him to get it done. Was about 20 days or so after the season started.

I mean it's all about the individual and how he feels.  If that article is accurate, and I realize it's translated from Swedish so maybe some is lost in translation, it sounds like everything is being handled by the agent and Nylander is simply following whatever the agent tells him.  Ultimately the agent works for Nylander, so Willy can tell the guy to just sign a deal because he wants to play, but whether it gets to that point is anybody's guess.

 

[Bender]

Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

 

[Zee]

Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.

 

[Coco-puffs]

And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.

Exactly. A fair argument can be made that a NBA player taking less, even millionsless, to win is making a move that will benefit them financially in the long-term. There isn't that sort of endorsement money in hockey. Even 750k less over a max deal is likely to be 6 million that player never sees again, regardless of how many cups they win.

Unfortunately, I was unaware of the amount of money the top tier of NBA stars pull in in shoe deals.  So sue me.  However, I don't think an NBA star is thinking "why not take less money help my team bring in more help" and saying to themeselves "i'll make it up in endorsement money".  No, they are getting that endorsement money anyways because they are the superstars of the NBA.  You can argue what is the difference to those guys between 26M and 32M per year.  Its already a ton of money.  I don't see why a 54M vs 60M contract (8 yrs) isn't the same argument.  ITS STILL A SHIT TON OF MONEY.

Nowhere did I state they (Leafs young "leaders") could make it up in endorsement money either.  I do see others making that argument, but I'm not one of them.

Again, I'm not HOPING Nylander takes a huge discount (like half his expected salary).  I'm hoping he takes 10% less of a SHIT TON OF MONEY.  Tavares already took a 20% discount compared to his other offers, and just because he did doesn't mean Nylander, Matthews, and Marner need to as well, but I'm hoping they take a bit of a haircut.

 

[Kin]

However, I don't think an NBA star is thinking "why not take less money help my team bring in more help" and saying to themeselves "i'll make it up in endorsement money".  No, they are getting that endorsement money anyways because they are the superstars of the NBA.

I think you're underestimating the extent to which these guys are savvy about their branding. I've read a few things about how even a player as great as LeBron, for instance, didn't have a lot of international appeal as a spokesman until he took less money for himself and went to the Heat where he started to win championships. After that, Nike started using him in markets like Europe and Asia where the "Sure, he hasn't won any titles but he's really good" thing doesn't have a lot of appeal. It's why on that list guys like Jordan and Kobe Bryant are still doing very well. 

They'll dress it up in language about competitiveness because they're good marketers of themselves but I think Win Title then Higher Presence then More Endorsement Money is absolutely part of the equation for these guys. You see it then with guys like Curry and Lebron where after they've already won a bunch of titles, then they go and get max level deals for themselves.

You can argue what is the difference to those guys between 26M and 32M per year.  Its already a ton of money.  I don't see why a 54M vs 60M contract (8 yrs) isn't the same argument.  ITS STILL A SHIT TON OF MONEY.

Except that's not the argument I'm making. It's not Durant is ok with 26 instead of 32 because it's a lot of money anyways, it's that Durant probably thinks that with multiple titles under his belt he'll end up making more at 26 than he ultimately would with a max deal somewhere he's less likely to win. There's a reason Nike had a Durant shoe commercial ready to air the second he won a title. 

You're the one who brought basketball players into the discussion but I don't think that really lends much to your argument. Leaving aside the very different situations virtually every other team in sports is in vs. the Warriors, I don't think it's actually true that a bunch of guys took team friendly deals there. 

 

[disco]

I'm glad Kyle and co. are sticking to their cap plan. If you want to be well compensated but not quite maxed out (what you'd get on the open market) in favor of being surrounded MULTIPLE OTHER superstars in perpetual contention for Stanley Cups over the next decade, then sign. If you you're agent feels you need to be MAXED out over all else, then you can't be on a team with THREE other superstars, not with the cap. It's not about "hometown discount" or "playing the emotional card". It's the simple reality of playing on a perpetual contender in a cap league.

 

[rdowdall]

Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

So you have Connor Brown and Zack Hyman locked in as well.  That gives you 12 players to sign and 20 million to do it with.  Nathan Horton can be used for a 5

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.

I think the position in the lineup is important to look at though. The following people are also signed for next year:

Travis Dermott - 863,333
Zack Hyman - 2.25 Million
Connor Brown - 2.1 Million

So if you think about it, that's your top 8 forwards accounted for and 3 of your defencemen and your starting goalie.  So doing all that math you have 12 players locked up at 63.46 million.  So you have about 19 mill to sign 11 players, which is 1.72 million per player.  So that is you bottom 4 forwards, three defencemen and a backup goalie.  Also you have the 5 million of Nathan Horton for LTIR.

If you can get your 4th line plus reserve forward, bottom pairing D-men plus extra d and backup goalie for  1 million or less, you are now looking at 8 players that take up 8 million of that remaining 19 million, give or take.  So now you are at 3 players to sign for 11 million, and the guy who is going to be the hardest in that group is going to be Jake Gardiner, and that's if you want to keep him.  I even think there is some wiggle room to give the big 3 a little more money than what you have listed.   

They just have to get through next year, and they gotta hope that guys like Grundstrom can fill out roles on entry level contracts, but I don't think having the 4 superstars making a lot of money is really all that bad for the team, considering the Leafs have pretty much said this is the plan for winning a cup for them. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

I'm glad Kyle and co. are sticking to their cap plan. If you want to be well compensated but not quite maxed out (what you'd get on the open market) in favor of being surrounded MULTIPLE OTHER superstars in perpetual contention for Stanley Cups over the next decade, then sign. If you you're agent feels you need to be MAXED out over all else, then you can't be on a team with THREE other superstars, not with the cap. It's not about "hometown discount" or "playing the emotional card". It's the simple reality of playing on a perpetual contender in a cap league.

I don't think Nylander maxed out is the end of keeping all 4 of them.  Even if they all max out you have Matthews at 12.5M (Connor), Nylander at 8.5M, Marner at 9.5M (Kucherov), and Tavares at 11M its still possible to fill a roster.  The problem is, you can't keep guys like Hyman/Brown/Kapanen etc beyond their ELC's.  Essentially, until the cap goes up significantly you have to cycle out guys on their 2nd contracts for cheap ELC's or reclaimation projects like Ennis. 

And the thing is... the team would probably still be very good.  If the drafting goes well, they'd still remain cup contenders.  It just becomes harder to achieve it.