Contracts for the Big-3

[ZBBM]

Yeah, I have to agree.  Anyway, I don't know why Matthews would sign before he has to.  Let's say he's injury-free or close to it this year.  He could still have a down year statistically and get $11M -- they aren't going to refuse that ask -- and if he has a Tavares-goosed breakout year then it's a fast train to McDavidstan.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Yeah, I have to agree.  Anyway, I don't know why Matthews would sign before he has to.  Let's say he's injury-free or close to it this year.  He could still have a down year statistically and get $11M -- they aren't going to refuse that ask -- and if he has a Tavares-goosed breakout year then it's a fast train to McDavidstan.

He could always get injured to, like any player and then it's gone. There's good and bad with signing now or later. The money isn't going to be all that different. And if he has a Tavares-goosed year, that doesn't necessarily work in his favour. Leafs can counter the JT effect as a reason for the big increase. He isn't getting McDavid money. He may have a case if he wins the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsay awards..

 

[Kin]

He could always get injured to, like any player and then it's gone.

People always say this but I think if you really examined it, really looked at how many times someone has gotten hurt so badly that it really affected their ability to have a successful career afterwards, then I think it's the sort of thing that becomes something that most players aren't going to take all that seriously as an influence on them. It's like saying you should avoid going on holiday because your plane could crash and you could die. Is it true? Sure. Does it actually affect anyone's decision making? Not really.

And if he has a Tavares-goosed year, that doesn't necessarily work in his favour. Leafs can counter the JT effect as a reason for the big increase.

And then what? Be at an impasse? Risk ruining things with potentially the most important young player in the history of the franchise over a relatively small amount of money?

That's the problem with this line of thinking. Matthews, like McDavid, can essentially get whatever he wants because the likelihood is that if the Leafs don't want to give it to him, someone else will. We saw with McDavid that the Oilers were willing to give McDavid more money than McDavid eventually signed for which is why the comparisons to McDavid's contract don't really work as a singular point, you're expecting Matthews to take the same haircut McDavid did when Matthews may not be so inclined.

 

[Zee]

My prediction for the contract announcements is coming up. July 31 let's go!!!!!!

 

[cabber24]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

 

[herman]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).

 

[cabber24]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).

Well they already have the Tavares template so let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announce all 3 at once since they're all dependent on one another.

 

[bustaheims]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/1023991377577750528

William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"

 

[Frank E]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/1023991377577750528

William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"

It's interesting, because NHL contracts are pretty simple things that Tavares was able to nail down in a matter of a couple of days.

There could be a few reasons why things are being delayed though, so I'm (EDIT) NOT suggesting that the Nylander camp is asking for more than what the Leafs are willing to pay.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

 

[Bullfrog]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).

Well they already have the Tavares template so let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announce all 3 at once since they're all dependent on one another.

I'll be extremely surprised if they announce all 3 at once. I'd say it's extremely unlikely to happen. I don't think they're dependent on each other. Sure, they are all viewed in a team context, but I don't that'll have too much of an influence.

 

[herman]

Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Could it be argued that the later the signing goes the lower the AAV tends to be on these second deals?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Could it be argued that the later the signing goes the lower the AAV tends to be on these second deals?

MacKinnon/Scheifele vs. Monahan the year before unfortunately blow this very good theory out of water.

 

[Kin]

Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

I sort of think these things are a little more intuitive than that. If Nylander were the kind of guy who'd really be bothered by the media and uncertainty than he'd also probably be the guy who tells his agent to get a deal done quickly. If he doesn't really mind giving fairly rote answers to not particularly invasive questions he's also probably going to be inclined to let his representation hammer out the best possible deal and enjoy his summer.

Honestly unless there's a massive difference between a player and team and things get contentious like they did in Carolina with Lindholm I'm inclined to think these things take up way less mental real estate for players than we think. Especially for an inscrutable type like Nylander seems to be.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I wonder how much of the delay is literally due to vacations. If you need five people together in one room, and everyone is off doing things for the summer, you just need to get a string of a few days in which they're all available. But that may be in July, Aug, Sept...

 

[Frank E]

Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Sure, and there are a few guys that are still without a deal that are in Nylander's range:  Stone, Larkin, and Karlsson are without deals today as well.

Stone is going to arbitration, Karlsson is as well (which I think is probably good for Vegas).  So that leaves Larkin and Nylander as RFA's that are just simply without a deal, and they don't have the option of arbitration.

We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

 

[Kin]

I wonder how much of the delay is literally due to vacations. If you need five people together in one room, and everyone is off doing things for the summer, you just need to get a string of a few days in which they're all available. But that may be in July, Aug, Sept...

I'm not sure who or how many people need to be in a room to negotiate a deal but I have to imagine July and August are fairly uncommon times for agents and their staff and front office people to be taking vacations.

 

[Frank E]

We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

I'm with you, it was just a hypothetical that would likely give them pause.

There's no doubt in my mind that Dubas would want to know what the ask is for Marner and Matthews in order to determine how to handle the more pressing contract of Nylander.  Whether or not those camps have discussed a number with Dubas is another thing that we really don't know.

But really, suggesting that these things are so super complicated that they can't get done fairly quickly, if there weren't other variables in play, is bananas to me.  Look at all the contracts that get signed on July 1...and even if we say that teams were obviously in contact with those players' agents previous to July 1, then couldn't we say the same for Nylander who was actually in front of them all season?

 

[ZBBM]

William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"

From "Mr. Lamoriello, sir" to "Kyle"?  And said while bearded?  Are.  You.  Kid.  Ding.  Me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0