Dave Bolland

[CarltonTheBear]

Completely different player.

You know you don't have to replace Bolland with another Bolland, right? Holland is a smart, defensively responsible centre, who bring some offensive flair and has the ability to move up in the lineup if/when the need arises. He also comes significantly cheaper than Bolland and, freak lice bite infection this season aside, doesn't have the injury history that Bolland does. While I'm hopeful he can be more, he's definitely good enough to be a 3rd line centre for the Leafs next season. The Leafs need to A) find guys who contribute above the level expected from their cap hit and B) have a succession plan in place to get some of the younger guys into the lineup. Signing more players to long-term, big money deals doesn't help in either of those areas.

AND he's from the Toronto-area as well!

 

[Corn Flake]

I think at some point the Leafs need to stop overpaying depth guys (not that Bolland is necessary an overpayment, but with Clarkson already on the roster...) and start filling these positions with cheaper, in-house, developed-by-the-Leafs guys.  I think Holland could probably do it, Leafs have pretty good wing depth right now and if you can re-sign Kulemin then great.

Bingo. Assuming Bolland re-signs and we re-sign Kadri next summer, we're looking at 7 of our top-9 forwards coming in at $4mil or more for the next few seasons. Not only is that a terrible position to be in cap-wise, but you're making it very difficult for our forward prospects to come in and make an impact.

A very quick eyballing of cap structures for next year, I'm seeing  teams who will have 5-7 guys signed to similar amounts or more.  in the case of San Jose, they have 5 players making more than $6 mil. Carolina has 5 making more than $4.75 with only 8 forwards signed. I have no doubt when all is said and done that the Rangers will be above that line too.

There are also a bunch of teams with a TON of cap space going into next year with plenty of holes to fill on their roster, of which I don't doubt we will see lots of overpaid UFA's come in to fill in many cases.  That will likely mean having a $4+ mil guy on the 3rd line won't be so shocking.

The bonus for the Leafs is that they are saving about $7 mil / year on their top line because of what JVR & Bozak make.. several other teams have 3 top line guys making well over $6 mil each.  So $24 mil spend on line 1 in Toronto is $17 mil.

I think we need to look around at other teams to get a bit more perspective before saying the Leafs are in terrible shape if they do this.

 

[Highlander]

Agreed, why are we developing such a great prospect pool and farm system if there is no room for the youngsters.
I love Dave Bolland and what he can or may bring to the table but right now he has an awful lot to prove.  I agree with Cornflake that Franson and Raymond may go.. not so sure about Reimer at this point.

 

[Kin]

There are also a bunch of teams with a TON of cap space going into next year with plenty of holes to fill on their roster, of which I don't doubt we will see lots of overpaid UFA's come in to fill in many cases.  That will likely mean having a $4+ mil guy on the 3rd line won't be so shocking.

I think that's a better argument for why Bolland won't come as cheaply as you guess than it is for keeping him around.

 

[Corn Flake]

Completely different player.

You know you don't have to replace Bolland with another Bolland, right? Holland is a smart, defensively responsible centre, who bring some offensive flair and has the ability to move up in the lineup if/when the need arises. He also comes significantly cheaper than Bolland and, freak lice bite infection this season aside, doesn't have the injury history that Bolland does. While I'm hopeful he can be more, he's definitely good enough to be a 3rd line centre for the Leafs next season. The Leafs need to A) find guys who contribute above the level expected from their cap hit and B) have a succession plan in place to get some of the younger guys into the lineup. Signing more players to long-term, big money deals doesn't help in either of those areas.

Oh you don't? Colour me shocked!

You need a defensive centre somewhere.  Holland may be responsible but I don't see him being able to take on that type of role. Doesn't have the injury history? You are comparing a 22 year old with a 27 year old. 

If we are dismissing "freak" injuries, the achilles injury Bolland sustained is considered freak as well.  As far as significant injuries, Bolland has had one concussion and a back injury where he missed half a season for. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think that's too much to tie up with Bolland.  I'm not one of those cap-savvy people so I rely on others mostly, but here's what Mirtle has just said:

@mirtle 

Leafs could be in a position needing three top nine forwards, a defenceman and a backup goalie in offseason. Lot of items on shopping list.

@mirtle

I count about $15-million for those needs. You add one at $5-million though and it's very tight.

I don't see it the way Mirtle does.  He's not factoring in any other changes to the roster where room can be created. 

Here is my rough take:

gone: Franson, Reimer, Ranger, McLaren, Raymond.

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Peter Holland ($1.000m) / Dave Bolland ($4.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($3.000m)
Troy Bodie ($0.800m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Carter Ashton ($0.950m)

DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m) / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Tim Gleason ($4.000m) / Morgan Rielly ($0.894m)
Jake Gardiner ($2.500m) / Ron Hainsey ($2.000m)
Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
Justin Peters ($0.800m)


SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,556,667; BONUSES: $850,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $4,543,333


So I made a few hard decisions on Franson and Reimer, but even with those I still have $4.5 mil in cap space.  Sooo I'm not seeing the cause for concern.

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

 

[Corn Flake]

Agreed, why are we developing such a great prospect pool and farm system if there is no room for the youngsters.
I love Dave Bolland and what he can or may bring to the table but right now he has an awful lot to prove.  I agree with Cornflake that Franson and Raymond may go.. not so sure about Reimer at this point.

There is room for the prospects who are capable of earning the job. Room can be made for them too if they prove they are ready. Injuries create many other openings as we have seen plenty of this year so far.  Prospects also should be developed as tradeable assets. They don't all need to be considered future Leafs.

 

[Kin]

Agreed, why are we developing such a great prospect pool and farm system if there is no room for the youngsters.

I don't know who you're talking to but I don't think the Leafs' prospect pool is especially well regarded.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

Holland likely gets a 1-year deal like Colborne did. And his base salary right now is only $870k. So he'll come in somewhere around that. You're right about Kulemin and McClement though. Hainsey's number is also low, he signed a cheap 1-year deal at $2mil this season and proved himself. He's getting a longer contract with more money this summer.

And if we're trading Reimer and Franson for picks we likely won't be getting very much value back in return. Especially for Reimer.

 

[Corn Flake]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

That's fine.. without getting into what exactly each guy will get, I have $4.5 mil in cap space to deal with that.

So again, I don't see where the fire is.

 

[Corn Flake]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

Holland likely gets a 1-year deal like Colborne did. And his base salary right now is only $870k. So he'll come in somewhere around that. You're right about Kulemin and McClement though. Hainsey's number is also low, he signed a cheap 1-year deal at $2mil this season and proved himself. He's getting a longer contract with more money this summer.

He was only a placeholder UFA body to illustrate the point I'm trying to make. Could be one of many guys but you can spend $2'ish mil on a 3rd pairing d-man if you need to and easily balance things out.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

Holland likely gets a 1-year deal like Colborne did. And his base salary right now is only $870k. So he'll come in somewhere around that. You're right about Kulemin and McClement though. Hainsey's number is also low, he signed a cheap 1-year deal at $2mil this season and proved himself. He's getting a longer contract with more money this summer.

Ahh, when I took a quick look at capgeek they have him listed in the Armchair GM section as $1.295 - assumed that was his cap hit.  Apparently not!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ahh, when I took a quick look at capgeek they have him listed in the Armchair GM section as $1.295 - assumed that was his cap hit.  Apparently not!

Well, techincally-ish his cap hit. That's with bonuses that he's likely not hitting.

 

[Kin]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

That's fine.. without getting into what exactly each guy will get, I have $4.5 mil in cap space to deal with that.

So again, I don't see where the fire is.

I think the "fire" is that you're taking a team that right now is tied for 10th in the league, adding nothing of significance up front and making them weaker on the blue line and in net. While that's certainly workable I think you can understand why some people would be hesitant to go down that road.

 

[Corn Flake]

Agreed, why are we developing such a great prospect pool and farm system if there is no room for the youngsters.

I don't know who you're talking to but I don't think the Leafs' prospect pool is especially well regarded.

That's just it. Who, other than Holland, right now is banging on the Leafs dressing room door looking for his locker stall?

I think the Leafs have lots of decent prospects but Holland is the only forward who is really close to making the jump.  The rest are 2-3 years away... at best.

 

[Kin]

That's just it. Who, other than Holland, right now is banging on the Leafs dressing room door looking for his locker stall?

I think the Leafs have lots of decent prospects but Holland is the only forward who is really close to making the jump.  The rest are 2-3 years away... at best.

But I think that's why I think the Leafs actually have a pretty good opportunity with Bolland. If Holland is a capable alternative then looking to deal Bolland could net them a pretty nice return while avoiding the thorny issue of maybe having to sign him at five years and 25 million.

Not having a good prospect base, to me, is an argument for making changes. Not keeping the band together.

 

[Corn Flake]

Just off a quick glance - first time UFA, Kulemin is going to get more than a $200,000.00 increase.  And I don't see Holland's salary going down on his next deal.  McClement will likely get a raise as well.

That's fine.. without getting into what exactly each guy will get, I have $4.5 mil in cap space to deal with that.

So again, I don't see where the fire is.

I think the "fire" is that you're taking a team that right now is tied for 10th in the league, adding nothing of significance up front and making them weaker on the blue line and in net. While that's certainly workable I think you can understand why some people would be hesitant to go down that road.

Fair that the roster is certainly unproven. I agree with that point for sure. That said, I'm not going to jettison Bolland because this overall young team hasn't proved to us it can win. I very much think he's part of the solution and IMO you let him go you will be out there the next day looking for someone who can do all the same things he does... maybe you can save $1-2 mil on that body if you are lucky.

 

[Corn Flake]

That's just it. Who, other than Holland, right now is banging on the Leafs dressing room door looking for his locker stall?

I think the Leafs have lots of decent prospects but Holland is the only forward who is really close to making the jump.  The rest are 2-3 years away... at best.

But I think that's why I think the Leafs actually have a pretty good opportunity with Bolland. If Holland is a capable alternative then looking to deal Bolland could net them a pretty nice return while avoiding the thorny issue of maybe having to sign him at five years and 25 million.

Not having a good prospect base, to me, is an argument for making changes. Not keeping the band together.

Okay,.... In my scenario I'm moving Franson and Reimer in the off season for picks and prospects to help replenish the cupboard, and I think they will bring a pretty nice return. With Bolland coming back, I can move Raymond at the deadline.. and I bet they would get similar returns in trade ... I then have Bolland for the playoffs to see what he's really made up and can make a contract decision at that point. I throw Holland on the wing for the playoffs too, and see where he's at too. 

I think that gets a good return looking forwards and allows me to see what my two 3rd line centre candidates look like in the playoffs.

 

[Champ Kind]

Agreed, why are we developing such a great prospect pool and farm system if there is no room for the youngsters.

I don't know who you're talking to but I don't think the Leafs' prospect pool is especially well regarded.

He had lunch with Cliff Fletcher last week.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think we need to look around at other teams to get a bit more perspective before saying the Leafs are in terrible shape if they do this.

I think you need to look at more than just the numbers and assess the quality of the players signed. It's not impossible to have a successful team with a bunch of players making $4-5+mil each. Take San Jose for instance. Yes, that's an expensive forward group but in my opinion they got those players signed at a great price. Even Carolina, the guys that they have signed are all top-6 forwards. Although in general Carolina isn't really a team whose template I'd really look at.

The real question would be how many teams have 5-7 forwards all signed to at $4mil+ where two of those forwards are 3rd liners on long-term contracts. I don't think you'll find many successful teams that match that description.