Flames vs. Maple Leafs - Jan. 18th, 9:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[herman]

https://x.com/tictactomar/status/1748185374151651799
Vladar was cooked on this one

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1748209322956603576

https://twitter.com/HacknSlashTV/status/1748210394714214611

 

[L K]

Great review and they played well in the last 10 minutes or so to shut it down.

Can't ask for more from a very fragile team. At the end of the day, they got a deflected goal against and 2  own goals.

The penalty kill turned the period for me.  Before that I thought they had chances to expand the lead but looked like they were just waiting for the tying goal to happen.  I liked how they played penalty kill onward

 

[cw]

[youtube]LCkxEaQoGQk[/youtube]

 

[Bullfrog]

So are we firing Keefe? I'm confused.

 

[Joe S.]

So are we firing Keefe? I'm confused.

The Bruce Boudreau era is set to begin any day now.

 

[Highlander]

I don't want Keefe fired.  Seems we are one Woll away from a fix. Lets hope so anyway. Also need a stud defenseman.  Time to limit Gio and Brodie or give them more days off.

 

[L K]

So are we firing Keefe? I'm confused.

I'm still leaning fire him to be honest.  They put on a great second period but the mental mistakes happen too often with the team and Keefe has been here for 4+ years now.  He's a part of the failure to get more than 5 wins in the playoffs

 

[Guilt Trip]

Great review and they played well in the last 10 minutes or so to shut it down.

Can't ask for more from a very fragile team. At the end of the day, they got a deflected goal against and 2  own goals.

The penalty kill turned the period for me.  Before that I thought they had chances to expand the lead but looked like they were just waiting for the tying goal to happen.  I liked how they played penalty kill onward

The Leafs did look shakey but they only allowed 5 shots against in the 3rd period. They didn't allow 1 high danger chance against and had 9 for. Had 11 scoring chances to 2 for Calgary including the PK.
I totally believe the slow start was a result of a couple GVs and Willy's penalty in the 1st minute and they just couldn't get on track because the Flames had the momentum. Matthews scoring that 1st goal gave them life and whatever Keefe or whoever said in the room worked.

 

[Bender]

I don't want Keefe fired.  Seems we are one Woll away from a fix. Lets hope so anyway. Also need a stud defenseman.  Time to limit Gio and Brodie or give them more days off.

I don't see Woll as the solution. Tbh Jones has provided at least league average goaltending, which should be good enough for this team. Goaltending right now is the least of our problems considering he's 7th in league save percentage.

 

[Guilt Trip]

So are we firing Keefe? I'm confused.

The Bruce Boudreau era is set to begin any day now.

Haha...you're funny.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I don't want Keefe fired.  Seems we are one Woll away from a fix. Lets hope so anyway. Also need a stud defenseman.  Time to limit Gio and Brodie or give them more days off.

I don't see Woll as the solution. Tbh Jones has provided at least league average goaltending, which should be good enough for this team. Goaltending right now is the least of our problems considering he's 7th in league save percentage.

Jones has provided the goaltending we need to get by. The Leafs need at least one D man to move Brodie down.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't want Keefe fired.  Seems we are one Woll away from a fix. Lets hope so anyway. Also need a stud defenseman.  Time to limit Gio and Brodie or give them more days off.

I don't see Woll as the solution. Tbh Jones has provided at least league average goaltending, which should be good enough for this team. Goaltending right now is the least of our problems considering he's 7th in league save percentage.

Jones hasn?t been bad, but his stats are definitely inflated by his success against bad teams. Against better teams, he?s mostly been not good enough to rely on.

 

[herman]

Nylander's usual linemates have been atrocious puck handlers this season.

Top 6 and Top 4 all situations home and away

Player	Giveaways	Takeaways
John Tavares	27	19
Tyler Bertuzzi	24	24
William Nylander	24	44
Mitch Marner	33	32
Auston Matthews	27	42
Matthew Knies	16	18
Morgan Rielly	39	16
TJ Brodie	28	11
Jake McCabe	26	10
Timothy Liljegren	16	2

 

[Guilt Trip]

Nylander's usual linemates have been atrocious puck handlers this season.

Top 6 and Top 4 all situations home and away

Player	Giveaways	Takeaways
John Tavares	27	19
Tyler Bertuzzi	24	24
William Nylander	24	44
Mitch Marner	33	32
Auston Matthews	27	42
Matthew Knies	16	18
Morgan Rielly	39	16
TJ Brodie	28	11
Jake McCabe	26	10
Timothy Liljegren	16	2

Can you get the stats for D zone vs O zone? O zone turnovers are important but can usually be the result of trying to create offence. Not surprising, Domi is one of our worst forwards in GV/60.

 

[herman]

Can you get the stats for D zone vs O zone? O zone turnovers are important but can usually be the result of trying to create offence. Not surprising, Domi is one of our worst forwards in GV/60.

These stats are compiled from Natural Stat Trick, which doesn't differentiate location, though that information is technically available (you can see it on a per-game report basis on the individual player's event location view).

MoneyPuck has DZ giveaway counts, so we can extrapolate OZ/NZ giveaways from that:

Top 6 and Top 4 all situations home and away

Player	Giveaways	Takeaways	DZ Giveaways
John Tavares	27	19	7
Tyler Bertuzzi	24	24	3
William Nylander	24	44	5
Mitch Marner	33	32	10
Auston Matthews	27	42	14
Matthew Knies	16	18	8
Morgan Rielly	39	16	29
TJ Brodie	28	11	23
Jake McCabe	26	10	21
Timothy Liljegren	16	2	16

I did find team wide numbers: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Leafs
DZGiveaways: 210
DZTakeaways: 115

OZGiveaways: 128
OZTakeaways: 106


My main takeaway, re: Tavares' line is: they generate a lot of puck touches in the OZ that fail (Nylander cleans up after them quite a bit) but they rarely ever touch the puck in the DZ (slow, soft, weak, what have you) enough to give it away.

Marner has been sloppy in the OZ in the early goings, but he usually gets it back.

Nylander and Matthews are quite the handful to handle for opposing skaters.

 

[caver]

I don't want Keefe fired.  Seems we are one Woll away from a fix. Lets hope so anyway. Also need a stud defenseman.  Time to limit Gio and Brodie or give them more days off.

I don't see Woll as the solution. Tbh Jones has provided at least league average goaltending, which should be good enough for this team. Goaltending right now is the least of our problems considering he's 7th in league save percentage.

Jones has provided the goaltending we need to get by. The Leafs need at least one D man to move Brodie down.

agreed.. if they can pick up a top D man for Reilly... then Brodie should move down.. the SN panel opined the other night that Toronto has 1 number 2 Dman.. 2 number 4s.. and 3 number 7s...

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I did find team wide numbers: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Leafs
DZGiveaways: 210
DZTakeaways: 115

OZGiveaways: 128
OZTakeaways: 106


My main takeaway, re: Tavares' line is: they generate a lot of puck touches in the OZ that fail (Nylander cleans up after them quite a bit) but they rarely ever touch the puck in the DZ (slow, soft, weak, what have you) enough to give it away.

Marner has been sloppy in the OZ in the early goings, but he usually gets it back.

Nylander and Matthews are quite the handful to handle for opposing skaters.

I agree with all of this.

Do they have a chart that adds in puck time? For instance, Rielly is always going to be higher on the give aways as he has the puck that much more than the other D. I'd also question how they are determining a giveaway for a defender? Is a rim around the boards that the opposing D keeps in at the point a give away? What about if the winger missed the rim?

 

[herman]

Do they have a chart that adds in puck time? For instance, Rielly is always going to be higher on the give aways as he has the puck that much more than the other D. I'd also question how they are determining a giveaway for a defender? Is a rim around the boards that the opposing D keeps in at the point a give away? What about if the winger missed the rim?

Best I'd be able to find is TOI (and thus GA/TA per 60). Puck handling time is proprietary (Sportlogiq or NHL puck tracking). I don't know the official scorekeeper's definition and it's going to be open to interpretation across different arenas. Like is a marshmallow lob from TJ Brodie into the goalie's crest after a 30s hardwork cycle by the forwards a giveaway? On the scoresheet it's a shot, iCF, iFF, with an xG of 0.0002.

Half a season is not the largest sample to isolate for just away numbers to remove home team bias (shows up in shots and hits too, but those are probably stable by now from sheer volume). In any case, just comparing the relative volume of events within the same team should mitigate the inherent noisiness of the data.

Smell check of Max Domi's numbers point to yes: he is atrocious at puck management and occasionally one of his blind passes finds a Leaf stick in the danger zone.

The general struggle with breakouts (immobile D) and the wasted offensive efforts (slow/sloppy passing) is pretty tough sledding. Matthews and Nylander continue to generate due to their individual prowess as dual threats while more traditional offense is neutered by the inability to chain more than 2 passes in the OZ.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Can you get the stats for D zone vs O zone? O zone turnovers are important but can usually be the result of trying to create offence. Not surprising, Domi is one of our worst forwards in GV/60.

These stats are compiled from Natural Stat Trick, which doesn't differentiate location, though that information is technically available (you can see it on a per-game report basis on the individual player's event location view).

MoneyPuck has DZ giveaway counts, so we can extrapolate OZ/NZ giveaways from that:

Top 6 and Top 4 all situations home and away

Player	Giveaways	Takeaways	DZ Giveaways
John Tavares	27	19	7
Tyler Bertuzzi	24	24	3
William Nylander	24	44	5
Mitch Marner	33	32	10
Auston Matthews	27	42	14
Matthew Knies	16	18	8
Morgan Rielly	39	16	29
TJ Brodie	28	11	23
Jake McCabe	26	10	21
Timothy Liljegren	16	2	16

I did find team wide numbers: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/givetake
Leafs
DZGiveaways: 210
DZTakeaways: 115

OZGiveaways: 128
OZTakeaways: 106


My main takeaway, re: Tavares' line is: they generate a lot of puck touches in the OZ that fail (Nylander cleans up after them quite a bit) but they rarely ever touch the puck in the DZ (slow, soft, weak, what have you) enough to give it away.

Marner has been sloppy in the OZ in the early goings, but he usually gets it back.

Nylander and Matthews are quite the handful to handle for opposing skaters.

Thx Herman..Tavares' line drives me nuts in our own end. None of them are great defensively. I will never fault JT tho for how hard he works. He made a key shot block last night later on in the 3rd.